Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Farmer12, Sep 14, 2016.

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  1. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    There is the other side of the medal, sure the URSS/WP can extract much more control on their society, but this also mean hinder and slowing the work of many people, use time and resources in keeping controlled the population, many time chasing ghost and while the fear of GULAG or worse will keep people down, it will be only up to a certain level.
    The economic consequence of the mobilization will have already affected the life of the entire Soviet population and the east block and their economies were much more fragile than the one of the west, frankly the idea of being used as cannon fodder by the URSS will not make many people happy in the rest of the WP nation and Poland was not a very quiet place in OTL and ITTL there is also the situation in East Germany.
     
  2. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    Regarding Italy and Jugoslavia, well the greatest fear of the italian generals in the 80's for this scenario was not that our neighbourgh will launch an attack (they were neither trained or equipped for such type of offensive) but that the WP will pass through their territory with Belgrade permission or not and attack Friuli and Trieste
     
  3. cjc Well-Known Member

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    Yes, if thoes army's arnt very good, then blowing past them in order to increase the presher on NATO in Germany by a 1/3 is absolutely Werth it (aspecaly sense this flanks the already over extended III corps germany) , if however those two army's are able to stop this front (which I believe they can, but was not the opion held by the red army general staff) then it would be a mistake.
     
  4. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    ferdi254- Well first the Greek and Turk hate each others guts and always will. second that infantry division will not be a whole lot of good against a tank army. Third every reserve unit include the reserve armored division is on its way to Thrace but garrisons have to be maintained. On the battlefield in Thrace where the roughly 3000 Turkish tanks all told. Facing about 3000 Soviet Tank of which half are considered first line tanks versus Central front where NATO was heavily outnumbered in the first place and the additional twenty thousand tanks just make the situation that much worse. Where as the Greeks at best add another 1600 tanks mostly obsolete. The numbers do give the Greek and Turkish armies the necessary numbers to provide the necessary weight to overwhelm the WARSAW PACT force.

    As for internal security the GRU AND KGB have units ready to shoot anyone inside the Soviet Union proper who gets out of line and those mobilization only or class D division are being used to backup internal security force in the northern WARSAW PACT especially to keep people in line freeing up first line units for frontline combat duty.

    As for Heliborne brigades, i never talked specific numbers on the central front you have three heliborne brigades plus two airborne divisions and several independant airborne battalions plus polish airborne units. Hungary you have two heliborne brigades and in three you have four heliborne brigades and there are five other two in afghanistan and three along the Chinese border. You need to look at what the Soviet actually have before you talk.
     
  5. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    cjc - You are correct about Soviet doctrine and the method of reinforcing success. Attacking at other points are just ways of adding additional pressure to the front line and tying up reinforcements that could go to more critical areas of the front. Also if by some miracle you breakthrough then you force NATO to move even more troops to that area of the front. I agree that none of the WARSAW PACT nations are particularly loyal and Romania will always be a worry for the Soviet Union. It rebels and the troops on Bulgaria are in a world of hurt.
     
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  6. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    lukedalton- your right about the loyalty of the WARSAW PACT populations, they can be controlled for only so long and then shit will happen but i figure three to four weeks tops, before that level is reached. The fear of Soviet forces moving through Yugoslavia will keep the 5th Corp tied up. Austria will be talked about in the next posting.
     
  7. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    15/14 Aug. Day -9
    10am Moscow
    Romanov was in a happy mood the Americans had agreed to the negotiations and that meant the deception plan was working. The Americans were told that the meeting would start on Wednesday. The meeting would go until Sunday and then the Ultimatum would be sent. Now he had to be at a briefing for Stavka. The Northern Front was doing the briefing for today.

    NATO HQ Brussels Tomorrow the last combat component of the Marine would be arriving in Istanbul. The mostly made up of the tank and other assorted vehicles support units of the 3rd Mardiv would arrive as well as the air component. Then in less than a week’s time those units would be ready for operation.

    Rome The Spanish division with the Portuguese brigade. The reinforced division was going to eastern Austria. At the same time Italian Army’s mountain troops were beginning to move to the defensive line in the region of Styria Austria. In the meantime, the Italian Army armored divisions would be waiting to attack. The 5th Corp was still holding it position. But the question of what the 3rd Corp would do would be discussed. Rome had not been seriously considering the idea of sending the Centauro Division north so soon. But it was ready to move if necessary.

    Last night a series of phone calls had went out, one of the calls had been to the commander of the 3rd Corp to report to the Ministry of Defense. What was up none of the Army commanders knew. The officers were gathered together and driven to the Prime Ministers office. The Prime Minister Bettino Craxi was not in a good mood, war was coming and he knew it. A senior member of the British Intelligence service had personally briefed him on what was happening. The Soviet Union was going to pretend to negotiate while engaging in the final preparations for war.

    Craxi had concealed that bit of information but he had begun preparation for war under the guise of better safe than sorry. The Communists were attacking his moves, stating that neutrality was the best policy. While the government had been downgrading any problems with the loyalty of the Communist party. There were indications that at least some of the Communist party leadership were considering carrying out strikes if Italy went to war. Then there was Yugoslavia

    But the Italians had it on good authority that Bosnia, Slovenia and Croatia all wanted to remain neutral in the upcoming war. Kosovo and Macedonia were less sure about what to do once war had broken out. Serbia was having a fit over the current situation only the province Vojvodina was also loyal. The Serbs were not talking about what they planned to do. But so far, they had not to the best of anyone’s intelligence services had heard what they planned to do. But one thing was certain that there had been a shuffle of Soviet Army units were gathering along the border of Yugoslavia. But on the good side it looked like for now Yugoslavia would remain united and would stay out of the war. That at least channeled the forces of the Warsaw Pact along narrow frontlines.

    He asked the military its opinion about the situation. Then he listened to the commander of the 3rd Corp point out that the Austrians did not have enough troops to defend the Austrian border. He also commented that in his view the Spanish Army division was placed too far to the east it could get cut off if it was not careful. He also commented that with the massive numbers of troops along the Czech/Bavarian Border he stated that while he was not opposed to committing the division to Northern Austrian. But he was more in favor of setting up a defensive line behind the Danube. He commented that he had spoken to the Germans and they were in favor of the Italians sending troops but they wanted the troops to setup as an extension of the German line. He pointed at the map and commented that setting up the 3rd Corp that way would have the Danube at the Corps back.

    He went silent as he allowed the politicians to look at the map and consider that bit of information. Finally, Craxi spoke up, **What do you recommend?” The Army Chief of Staff replied, “We can set up behind the Danube the only bridges in that section of Austria is near the city of Linz. There are no other bridges across the Danube. But the 3rd Corp is not sufficient to defend the whole river line much less the part of the line that would go into the mountains. The Austrian could put two Jaeger Brigades and one Jaeger Battalion essentially light infantry units with some armor and as well as a quantity of Territorial army units.

    Craxi considered what he had been told and he knew that the commander of the 3rd Corp was sitting in the room. He decided to ask him what he thought he needed. “General Conti what kind of force do you think you need to succeed in this mission should we decided to accept the request? Conti considered the question for a minute, one of his more imaginative staff officers had taken a look at that section of Austria. He told Conti that it would be made to setup north of the Danube since the only bridges across the Danube were in the city of Linz and the surrounding area. He had also stated that right now he had one division and he would need at least two divisions would be needed to cover that section of the line. “I think that first we must setup on the south side of the Danube to prevent our forces being caught with the Danube at our back and the WARSAW PACT forces at our front. But my division alone would not be able to hold the Danube line so at least one more division probably two would be needed to provide the forces to even begin to hold the line I would prefer the Trieste and Trento Divisions both are mostly made up of regular army units. I specifically prefer the Trieste division since it would return the Cremona brigade to my command.” General Conti was still annoyed that he had lost the Cremona brigade the only other fighting force of the 3rd Corp outside of the Centauro division.

    The Army Chief of Staff smiled to himself Conti had probably never considered having fight a battle anywhere but Italy. But he immediately asked for more troops. Prime Minister Craxi, considered what he had just been told. But he did note that neither the Savona Division nor the Piedmonte Division were not one of the divisions requested and he was uncertain as to why. “Why not the Savona Division?” General Conti considered his response carefully, he did not want to be to negative about the Savona Division. “Well Mr. Prime Minister Craxi, Two of the three brigades are mostly made up of reservists. The Lazio brigade has some regular units but most of the units are reservist in origin. While the Piemonte brigade has a cadre of regulars and does have a Leopard Battalion. But most of the troops are reservists. The Sassari Brigade has mixture of regular units and reservists. As for the Artillery component its made up of 155mm Howitzers but manned by reservists.

    As for the Piedmonte Division is mostly made up of reservists. The Paglia Brigade is made up of obsolete equipment and its tanks were M-47’s of the divisions are made up of obsolete tanks. The Lazio brigade is similarly armed. The only brigade with a good mixture of regulars to reservist is the Sassari brigade and its tanks were Leopard I’s. That is why these divisions would be my last choices for the 3rd Corp.

    Craxi looked at the Army Chief of Staff and he asked, “What units should be sent to reinforce the 3rd Corp. The Army Chief of Staff considered the situation and he agreed with what General Conti that at least two additional divisions would be necessary form the kind of line needed along the Danube. That did not include the necessary reserve division and the only troops the Austrians could provide would be two Jaeger Brigades and one Jaeger Battalion. To hold that line, we will need to send 3rd Corp and two of the newly organized divisions. We will send the Trento and the Savona. We will keep the Trieste and the Piedmont in reserve.” Craxi considered what he was told and he took a deep breath. “We will do what the Chief of Staff suggests. What about the Spanish division?” The Chief of Staff replied, “I will talk to the Chief of Staff’s of both Spain and Portugal about repositioning the Iberian division.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019 at 11:42 PM
  8. cjc Well-Known Member

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    Aug 17, 2016
    True, fortunately only Italy felt that the ussr cared that much for italy, in reality the red army can afored to live a few MD divisions in the Austrian alpine passes and move the Kyiv gourp of tank army's right into centags flank, and sense the V corps is Italy's strongest then they need to figer that out before the other 2 corps get over runover.
     
  9. basileus Inflammable

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    LITTORIO Division? A Fascist name banned since 1943-5?
    PieDmonte? PAglia?
    Italian Communists willing to sabotage their own country to favor the Soviets?
    WTF?
     
  10. cjc Well-Known Member

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    By the way, what's your order of battle for the warsaw pact farmer12, curious becus there is several orders of battle floating around out there and I'm wondering which one your using, for example the one I use has 8 MRD and 3 TD for the warsaw pact in Hungary, the first echelon for any invation of Austria.
     
  11. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    cjc-My orders of battle are primarily from two sources for the Soviet Military http://www.ww2.dk/new/newindex.htm For NATO is is a little more varied. The NATO order of battle is in general my main source with cross referencing with other information and remembering that information is from 1989 and there fore you need to remember that some units are not in existence and kind of equipment has to be researched to make sure that the weapons were indeed in the hands of the that particular nation. Also my main source for CENTAG Force is Armies of NATO's Central Front it a very good source but expensive. If you can try to get and interlibrary loan and take a look at it. It is impressive.
    https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2012/02/nato-order-of-battle-1989.html
     
  12. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    basileus- I was not aware that the name had been banned, due to fascist ties but i can use another name
     
  13. hog Member

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    To go from the top; as far as i know the law that was introduced in the Chamber of Deputies in 2017 to ban the use of any Facist symbols, images etc. has not been ratified by the Senate, there are still monuments to National Socialism (Facist) leaders and for the time period in general dotted around Italy unlike Germany where any mention, merchandising or glorifying / justifying that time period has been illegal since the late 40s. Now, is it likely that a modern Italian military would have any divisions with names connection them to WWII, probably not.

    https://www.rt.com/news/403233-italy-law-fascism-souvenirs/

    Farmer12; enjoying the story, a fairly decent listing of Army formations here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structure_of_the_Italian_Army_in_1984

    PieDmonte / Paglia; fair enough, spell check and correct geographical names should be used.

    Italian Communists; where to start, in the late 70s they still received a third of the popular vote, the Brigate Rossi were among the most active Communist terror cells in Europe in the 70s and 80s with splinter factions being active into the 90s and 00s so probably not so far fetched that you could see some serious fifth columnist work being done.

    It is a work of fiction after all so let's all just enjoy a good read.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2019 at 10:49 AM
  14. cjc Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, this seems similar to what I use.
     
  15. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 9, 2016
    hog- as for the communist some will help the Soviet Union and others will keep their distance. Unless it looks like the Soviet Union is winning then more of the Party will move to support the Soviet Union. In the early stages of the war there will be some protests as well as a few terrorist attacks. But depending on just how well the Soviets are doing will tell you more about what will happen.

    Thank you for calling my efforts a good read i am trying the best that i can and compliments are appreciated
     
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  16. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 9, 2016
    Brussels General Rogers then considered a rather novel plan Crystal Ball. It had a lot of merit and he would be having a discussion about it with his staff. After all they now knew roughly when the Warsaw Pact would attack so like a Crystal Ball they could see into the future. He liked the plan and ordered the planner to make a much more detailed plan. It was bold and definite as long as word did not get out about what they had planned. The news of a preemptive strike would not go down well with many people.

    Portsmouth
    The Hermes and her two escorts were being readied for sea when the Tiger and Beaver left for sea. When the two ships were out about two hundred kilometers when the Plumleaf rendezvoused with the two ships. Then the three ships headed to the south about another two hundred kilometers where they began to move in a rough circle.


    Washington DC
    In the Senate, Ted Kennedy stood up in the Senate chamber and announce that the House and Senate should take over negotiations from President Reagan. He told the Senate that the Reagan was incapable of negotiating an end to this crisis. His record as an enemy to the Soviet Union, made it impossible for the Soviet Union to trust him. His unyielding hostility was forcing the leaders of the Soviet Union to an unwanted war. The reaction of the Republicans in the Senate they stated that the President and only the President could carry out Foreign policy of the United States. That this move was therefore both illegal and unconstitutional, there force the Republican of the Senate to oppose the proposal. While a good number of the Democrats in the Senate supported Kennedy. Other Democrats pointed out that the United States could only have one foreign policy and if they over rode Reagans policies. Then when a Democrat was president the Republicans could do the same thing to that Democratic president. The response by the supporters of Ted Kennedy replied, **At least they would be alive to oppose that Democratic president.

    In the debate in the Senate, it was soon clear that the Republicans were united in their opposition to the Kennedy’s proposal. While the Democrats were divided, a good number of Democrats from Southern and more the Rural states were opposed especially the ones current up for reelection did not want to leave and opening for a Republican candidate to attack that Senator for playing dangerous games with the foreign policy of the United States. The supporters of Kennedy stated that the survival of not only the United States but the world was at stake. That meant that they had a duty to humanity to take control of American foreign policy from Reagan if the would was to survive.

    In the House the proposal was announced in a speech, the reaction was predictable in that the Republicans were totally opposed to the idea. While the Democrats were again split. But in this case the numbers were not all that far from winning in the House. But a good number of the Democrats were opposed but not enough to block the proposed bill. But in the middle were a fair number of undecided House democrats. Tip had decided that given the current international situation that allowing the supporters of the bill to move it forward was the best thing to do at this time.

    The assassination of Ghandi had stalled the movement to peace, that allowed people who had been scared away from the Peace Movement after Boston were coming back. Some because they had supported the demands of the Peace Movement but had been reluctant openly support the peace movement. But the current situation made it clear to them that supporting the Antiwar movement. Others who were looking the current situation and remembering the movie The Day After were frightened. The move by the Democratic party was designed to bring those people to the Democratic Party. Tip was making the move because if war came about the people who were currently leaning to Reagan and the Republican party might reconsider that support.


    Reagan’s press secretary made it clear that Reagan would not allow anyone else to interfere with his current policy. While Mondale thinking about what would happen if he won and Republicans decided to make their own foreign Policy made it clear that he did not support the plan either commenting, **That while I do not support Reagan’ foreign policy. I can see nothing but chaos if there were two foreign policies one being carried out by the president in power while the opposing party put forward its own foreign policy.
     
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