Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Farmer12, Sep 14, 2016.

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  1. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    There is the other side of the medal, sure the URSS/WP can extract much more control on their society, but this also mean hinder and slowing the work of many people, use time and resources in keeping controlled the population, many time chasing ghost and while the fear of GULAG or worse will keep people down, it will be only up to a certain level.
    The economic consequence of the mobilization will have already affected the life of the entire Soviet population and the east block and their economies were much more fragile than the one of the west, frankly the idea of being used as cannon fodder by the URSS will not make many people happy in the rest of the WP nation and Poland was not a very quiet place in OTL and ITTL there is also the situation in East Germany.
     
  2. lukedalton Well-Known Member

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    Regarding Italy and Jugoslavia, well the greatest fear of the italian generals in the 80's for this scenario was not that our neighbourgh will launch an attack (they were neither trained or equipped for such type of offensive) but that the WP will pass through their territory with Belgrade permission or not and attack Friuli and Trieste
     
  3. cjc Well-Known Member

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    Yes, if thoes army's arnt very good, then blowing past them in order to increase the presher on NATO in Germany by a 1/3 is absolutely Werth it (aspecaly sense this flanks the already over extended III corps germany) , if however those two army's are able to stop this front (which I believe they can, but was not the opion held by the red army general staff) then it would be a mistake.
     
  4. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    ferdi254- Well first the Greek and Turk hate each others guts and always will. second that infantry division will not be a whole lot of good against a tank army. Third every reserve unit include the reserve armored division is on its way to Thrace but garrisons have to be maintained. On the battlefield in Thrace where the roughly 3000 Turkish tanks all told. Facing about 3000 Soviet Tank of which half are considered first line tanks versus Central front where NATO was heavily outnumbered in the first place and the additional twenty thousand tanks just make the situation that much worse. Where as the Greeks at best add another 1600 tanks mostly obsolete. The numbers do give the Greek and Turkish armies the necessary numbers to provide the necessary weight to overwhelm the WARSAW PACT force.

    As for internal security the GRU AND KGB have units ready to shoot anyone inside the Soviet Union proper who gets out of line and those mobilization only or class D division are being used to backup internal security force in the northern WARSAW PACT especially to keep people in line freeing up first line units for frontline combat duty.

    As for Heliborne brigades, i never talked specific numbers on the central front you have three heliborne brigades plus two airborne divisions and several independant airborne battalions plus polish airborne units. Hungary you have two heliborne brigades and in three you have four heliborne brigades and there are five other two in afghanistan and three along the Chinese border. You need to look at what the Soviet actually have before you talk.
     
  5. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    cjc - You are correct about Soviet doctrine and the method of reinforcing success. Attacking at other points are just ways of adding additional pressure to the front line and tying up reinforcements that could go to more critical areas of the front. Also if by some miracle you breakthrough then you force NATO to move even more troops to that area of the front. I agree that none of the WARSAW PACT nations are particularly loyal and Romania will always be a worry for the Soviet Union. It rebels and the troops on Bulgaria are in a world of hurt.
     
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  6. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    lukedalton- your right about the loyalty of the WARSAW PACT populations, they can be controlled for only so long and then shit will happen but i figure three to four weeks tops, before that level is reached. The fear of Soviet forces moving through Yugoslavia will keep the 5th Corp tied up. Austria will be talked about in the next posting.
     
  7. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    15/14 Aug. Day -9
    10am Moscow
    Romanov was in a happy mood the Americans had agreed to the negotiations and that meant the deception plan was working. The Americans were told that the meeting would start on Wednesday. The meeting would go until Sunday and then the Ultimatum would be sent. Now he had to be at a briefing for Stavka. The Northern Front was doing the briefing for today.

    NATO HQ Brussels Tomorrow the last combat component of the Marine would be arriving in Istanbul. The mostly made up of the tank and other assorted vehicles support units of the 3rd Mardiv would arrive as well as the air component. Then in less than a week’s time those units would be ready for operation.

    Rome The Spanish division with the Portuguese brigade. The reinforced division was going to eastern Austria. At the same time Italian Army’s mountain troops were beginning to move to the defensive line in the region of Styria Austria. In the meantime, the Italian Army armored divisions would be waiting to attack. The 5th Corp was still holding it position. But the question of what the 3rd Corp would do would be discussed. Rome had not been seriously considering the idea of sending the Centauro Division north so soon. But it was ready to move if necessary.

    Last night a series of phone calls had went out, one of the calls had been to the commander of the 3rd Corp to report to the Ministry of Defense. What was up none of the Army commanders knew. The officers were gathered together and driven to the Prime Ministers office. The Prime Minister Bettino Craxi was not in a good mood, war was coming and he knew it. A senior member of the British Intelligence service had personally briefed him on what was happening. The Soviet Union was going to pretend to negotiate while engaging in the final preparations for war.

    Craxi had concealed that bit of information but he had begun preparation for war under the guise of better safe than sorry. The Communists were attacking his moves, stating that neutrality was the best policy. While the government had been downgrading any problems with the loyalty of the Communist party. There were indications that at least some of the Communist party leadership were considering carrying out strikes if Italy went to war. Then there was Yugoslavia

    But the Italians had it on good authority that Bosnia, Slovenia and Croatia all wanted to remain neutral in the upcoming war. Kosovo and Macedonia were less sure about what to do once war had broken out. Serbia was having a fit over the current situation only the province Vojvodina was also loyal. The Serbs were not talking about what they planned to do. But so far, they had not to the best of anyone’s intelligence services had heard what they planned to do. But one thing was certain that there had been a shuffle of Soviet Army units were gathering along the border of Yugoslavia. But on the good side it looked like for now Yugoslavia would remain united and would stay out of the war. That at least channeled the forces of the Warsaw Pact along narrow frontlines.

    He asked the military its opinion about the situation. Then he listened to the commander of the 3rd Corp point out that the Austrians did not have enough troops to defend the Austrian border. He also commented that in his view the Spanish Army division was placed too far to the east it could get cut off if it was not careful. He also commented that with the massive numbers of troops along the Czech/Bavarian Border he stated that while he was not opposed to committing the division to Northern Austrian. But he was more in favor of setting up a defensive line behind the Danube. He commented that he had spoken to the Germans and they were in favor of the Italians sending troops but they wanted the troops to setup as an extension of the German line. He pointed at the map and commented that setting up the 3rd Corp that way would have the Danube at the Corps back.

    He went silent as he allowed the politicians to look at the map and consider that bit of information. Finally, Craxi spoke up, **What do you recommend?” The Army Chief of Staff replied, “We can set up behind the Danube the only bridges in that section of Austria is near the city of Linz. There are no other bridges across the Danube. But the 3rd Corp is not sufficient to defend the whole river line much less the part of the line that would go into the mountains. The Austrian could put two Jaeger Brigades and one Jaeger Battalion essentially light infantry units with some armor and as well as a quantity of Territorial army units.

    Craxi considered what he had been told and he knew that the commander of the 3rd Corp was sitting in the room. He decided to ask him what he thought he needed. “General Conti what kind of force do you think you need to succeed in this mission should we decided to accept the request? Conti considered the question for a minute, one of his more imaginative staff officers had taken a look at that section of Austria. He told Conti that it would be made to setup north of the Danube since the only bridges across the Danube were in the city of Linz and the surrounding area. He had also stated that right now he had one division and he would need at least two divisions would be needed to cover that section of the line. “I think that first we must setup on the south side of the Danube to prevent our forces being caught with the Danube at our back and the WARSAW PACT forces at our front. But my division alone would not be able to hold the Danube line so at least one more division probably two would be needed to provide the forces to even begin to hold the line I would prefer the Trieste and Trento Divisions both are mostly made up of regular army units. I specifically prefer the Trieste division since it would return the Cremona brigade to my command.” General Conti was still annoyed that he had lost the Cremona brigade the only other fighting force of the 3rd Corp outside of the Centauro division.

    The Army Chief of Staff smiled to himself Conti had probably never considered having fight a battle anywhere but Italy. But he immediately asked for more troops. Prime Minister Craxi, considered what he had just been told. But he did note that neither the Savona Division nor the Piedmonte Division were not one of the divisions requested and he was uncertain as to why. “Why not the Savona Division?” General Conti considered his response carefully, he did not want to be to negative about the Savona Division. “Well Mr. Prime Minister Craxi, Two of the three brigades are mostly made up of reservists. The Lazio brigade has some regular units but most of the units are reservist in origin. While the Piemonte brigade has a cadre of regulars and does have a Leopard Battalion. But most of the troops are reservists. The Sassari Brigade has mixture of regular units and reservists. As for the Artillery component its made up of 155mm Howitzers but manned by reservists.

    As for the Piedmonte Division is mostly made up of reservists. The Paglia Brigade is made up of obsolete equipment and its tanks were M-47’s of the divisions are made up of obsolete tanks. The Lazio brigade is similarly armed. The only brigade with a good mixture of regulars to reservist is the Sassari brigade and its tanks were Leopard I’s. That is why these divisions would be my last choices for the 3rd Corp.

    Craxi looked at the Army Chief of Staff and he asked, “What units should be sent to reinforce the 3rd Corp. The Army Chief of Staff considered the situation and he agreed with what General Conti that at least two additional divisions would be necessary form the kind of line needed along the Danube. That did not include the necessary reserve division and the only troops the Austrians could provide would be two Jaeger Brigades and one Jaeger Battalion. To hold that line, we will need to send 3rd Corp and two of the newly organized divisions. We will send the Trento and the Savona. We will keep the Trieste and the Piedmont in reserve.” Craxi considered what he was told and he took a deep breath. “We will do what the Chief of Staff suggests. What about the Spanish division?” The Chief of Staff replied, “I will talk to the Chief of Staff’s of both Spain and Portugal about repositioning the Iberian division.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2019
  8. cjc Well-Known Member

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    True, fortunately only Italy felt that the ussr cared that much for italy, in reality the red army can afored to live a few MD divisions in the Austrian alpine passes and move the Kyiv gourp of tank army's right into centags flank, and sense the V corps is Italy's strongest then they need to figer that out before the other 2 corps get over runover.
     
  9. basileus Inflammable

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    LITTORIO Division? A Fascist name banned since 1943-5?
    PieDmonte? PAglia?
    Italian Communists willing to sabotage their own country to favor the Soviets?
    WTF?
     
  10. cjc Well-Known Member

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    By the way, what's your order of battle for the warsaw pact farmer12, curious becus there is several orders of battle floating around out there and I'm wondering which one your using, for example the one I use has 8 MRD and 3 TD for the warsaw pact in Hungary, the first echelon for any invation of Austria.
     
  11. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 9, 2016
    cjc-My orders of battle are primarily from two sources for the Soviet Military http://www.ww2.dk/new/newindex.htm For NATO is is a little more varied. The NATO order of battle is in general my main source with cross referencing with other information and remembering that information is from 1989 and there fore you need to remember that some units are not in existence and kind of equipment has to be researched to make sure that the weapons were indeed in the hands of the that particular nation. Also my main source for CENTAG Force is Armies of NATO's Central Front it a very good source but expensive. If you can try to get and interlibrary loan and take a look at it. It is impressive.
    https://defense-and-freedom.blogspot.com/2012/02/nato-order-of-battle-1989.html
     
  12. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    basileus- I was not aware that the name had been banned, due to fascist ties but i can use another name
     
  13. hog Member

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    To go from the top; as far as i know the law that was introduced in the Chamber of Deputies in 2017 to ban the use of any Facist symbols, images etc. has not been ratified by the Senate, there are still monuments to National Socialism (Facist) leaders and for the time period in general dotted around Italy unlike Germany where any mention, merchandising or glorifying / justifying that time period has been illegal since the late 40s. Now, is it likely that a modern Italian military would have any divisions with names connection them to WWII, probably not.

    https://www.rt.com/news/403233-italy-law-fascism-souvenirs/

    Farmer12; enjoying the story, a fairly decent listing of Army formations here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structure_of_the_Italian_Army_in_1984

    PieDmonte / Paglia; fair enough, spell check and correct geographical names should be used.

    Italian Communists; where to start, in the late 70s they still received a third of the popular vote, the Brigate Rossi were among the most active Communist terror cells in Europe in the 70s and 80s with splinter factions being active into the 90s and 00s so probably not so far fetched that you could see some serious fifth columnist work being done.

    It is a work of fiction after all so let's all just enjoy a good read.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2019
  14. cjc Well-Known Member

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    Aug 17, 2016
    Thanks, this seems similar to what I use.
     
  15. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 9, 2016
    hog- as for the communist some will help the Soviet Union and others will keep their distance. Unless it looks like the Soviet Union is winning then more of the Party will move to support the Soviet Union. In the early stages of the war there will be some protests as well as a few terrorist attacks. But depending on just how well the Soviets are doing will tell you more about what will happen.

    Thank you for calling my efforts a good read i am trying the best that i can and compliments are appreciated
     
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  16. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 9, 2016
    Brussels General Rogers then considered a rather novel plan Crystal Ball. It had a lot of merit and he would be having a discussion about it with his staff. After all they now knew roughly when the Warsaw Pact would attack so like a Crystal Ball they could see into the future. He liked the plan and ordered the planner to make a much more detailed plan. It was bold and definite as long as word did not get out about what they had planned. The news of a preemptive strike would not go down well with many people.

    Portsmouth
    The Hermes and her two escorts were being readied for sea when the Tiger and Beaver left for sea. When the two ships were out about two hundred kilometers when the Plumleaf rendezvoused with the two ships. Then the three ships headed to the south about another two hundred kilometers where they began to move in a rough circle.


    Washington DC
    In the Senate, Ted Kennedy stood up in the Senate chamber and announce that the House and Senate should take over negotiations from President Reagan. He told the Senate that the Reagan was incapable of negotiating an end to this crisis. His record as an enemy to the Soviet Union, made it impossible for the Soviet Union to trust him. His unyielding hostility was forcing the leaders of the Soviet Union to an unwanted war. The reaction of the Republicans in the Senate they stated that the President and only the President could carry out Foreign policy of the United States. That this move was therefore both illegal and unconstitutional, there force the Republican of the Senate to oppose the proposal. While a good number of the Democrats in the Senate supported Kennedy. Other Democrats pointed out that the United States could only have one foreign policy and if they over rode Reagans policies. Then when a Democrat was president the Republicans could do the same thing to that Democratic president. The response by the supporters of Ted Kennedy replied, **At least they would be alive to oppose that Democratic president.

    In the debate in the Senate, it was soon clear that the Republicans were united in their opposition to the Kennedy’s proposal. While the Democrats were divided, a good number of Democrats from Southern and more the Rural states were opposed especially the ones current up for reelection did not want to leave and opening for a Republican candidate to attack that Senator for playing dangerous games with the foreign policy of the United States. The supporters of Kennedy stated that the survival of not only the United States but the world was at stake. That meant that they had a duty to humanity to take control of American foreign policy from Reagan if the would was to survive.

    In the House the proposal was announced in a speech, the reaction was predictable in that the Republicans were totally opposed to the idea. While the Democrats were again split. But in this case the numbers were not all that far from winning in the House. But a good number of the Democrats were opposed but not enough to block the proposed bill. But in the middle were a fair number of undecided House democrats. Tip had decided that given the current international situation that allowing the supporters of the bill to move it forward was the best thing to do at this time.

    The assassination of Ghandi had stalled the movement to peace, that allowed people who had been scared away from the Peace Movement after Boston were coming back. Some because they had supported the demands of the Peace Movement but had been reluctant openly support the peace movement. But the current situation made it clear to them that supporting the Antiwar movement. Others who were looking the current situation and remembering the movie The Day After were frightened. The move by the Democratic party was designed to bring those people to the Democratic Party. Tip was making the move because if war came about the people who were currently leaning to Reagan and the Republican party might reconsider that support.


    Reagan’s press secretary made it clear that Reagan would not allow anyone else to interfere with his current policy. While Mondale thinking about what would happen if he won and Republicans decided to make their own foreign Policy made it clear that he did not support the plan either commenting, **That while I do not support Reagan’ foreign policy. I can see nothing but chaos if there were two foreign policies one being carried out by the president in power while the opposing party put forward its own foreign policy.
     
  17. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    16/15Aug War Day -8
    Istanbul The arrival of the support units from the 3rd Marine Division for the 6 MAB had arrived. The dockworkers began to immediately unload the ships.

    West Germany General Rogers was inspecting the latest group of replacement troops who had just arrived. The troops had been recalled during the general mobilization. They had undergone training since the mobilization now they were being sent to Europe to be replacement troops. One problem was that any shortages in personal in the various units mobilized back in the states had been filled out with troops from the ready reserve and the people who pulled themselves together before the rest of the recalled troops. These troops had already had some of the best of the officers and men pulled from the ranks of the ready reserve. But this group of men looked pretty good. If the intelligence received from the British was accurate and the British were absolutely positive that the information was absolutely correct. That meant by this time next week NATO and the WARSAW PACT would be at war.

    He was also happy to hear that the British Army’s 6th divisions movement was complete and now the 43rd Wessex division was on the way in just a few days the two divisions and the other units would be in place.

    Now the Italians were asking to brief him on the new plans for the defense of Austria. They were being a bit mysterious about what was going on. But he was not going to worry about the new plan until he had something to worry about.

    Regensburg General Conti had to catchup with General Wagner, General Wagner had been inspecting the American troops. Overall, they had made a good impression but he was still concerned. The quality of America’s National Guard troops in the past had been iffy. He was hoping that what he had seen was the real 47th Infantry division. General Wagner went immediately on the offensive talking about the Centauro Division and any attached unit continuing the German line to the south hopefully as far south as the Danube with the Austrian troops it would be possible to hold such a long line.

    General Conti promptly informed General Wagner that he would not set up a defensive line with the Danube at his back. He would setup the defensive line using the Danube as a moat. He also informed General Wagner that the Austrian 2ND Corp had agreed with his assessment of the situation. Then despite Wagner’s best efforts the Italian General would not even consider the German plan. General Conti suggested that the German pull back behind the Danube. With that the meeting was over.

    Plymouth
    The Hermes left port with her two escorts and they headed to the south and west. By about 6pm the Carrier Task force rendezvoused with the Tiger, Beaver and the Plumleaf the four ships formed up in with the Hermes and the Plumleaf formed in the center. While in Ferrol the Princesa and Nautilus escorting the Oriana left for sea they headed due west about two hundred kilometers before the ships began to sail in a box formation. To the south a senior admiral arrived and the captains from the ships of his task force came about his new flagship the Dadelo. The briefing was short and to the point and the captains were not talking when the returned to their ships. All the crews knew was that they would be at sea the next day.


    In Brest the Rubis and La Saphir left port heading south at top speed with the American navy keeping track of the two submarines as they headed south. The Rubis was to take position off of port in the Cape Verdes Island ready to attack any sub that came or went and if the ship in the port attempted to leave they were to sink. The La Saphir was to begin patrolling off of Conraky just in case the squadron of Soviet surface warships left port.

    Antwerp
    The fast convoy was once again headed to Boston.

    Washington DC The Debate in the House was quite fiery and the polling about the Democratic plan was not going like the Democratic Party wanted. The bulk of the population felt that having two rival foreign Policies at the same time was dangerous. They also felt that the Democratic party was being opportunistic about the plan. Several Democratic Congressman who were had not been sure about how to vote had been inundated by voters infuriated at this display as they phrased it as near treasonous. The tide on the vote began to turn. They spoke out against the bill making it clear that they could not and would not support this bill. In the Senate, Kennedy spoke out against those congressmen and women who were playing it safe when the world was so near destruction.


    Meanwhile President Reagan was getting another briefing on the current military situation. The Army was happy as hell all their combat units were in place and a massive number of support units would be sent to sea with the next convoy. Also, more of the new anti-tank and recon vehicles would be on board. The hastily trained and formed units were already on the way to Europe. The Air Force happy enough their combat squadrons and support squadrons were in place and ready to go. While the Marines 5th and 6th marines edging closer to full strength. At the same time the 42nd Infantry division was coming together. Although much of the equipment making it possible were obsolete or civilian vehicles.

    The navy was the branch of service with the most news. The Stoddard was now at sea and headed for its patrol area off the coast of Nicaragua. We have the Barry doing a combination of sea trials and training all in one mission. The Jonas Ingram is going to go to sea with her crew in the next day or two. The work on the Laffey has really gone well but she was also a lucky ship. Did you know that she actually survived an attack on her by a kamikaze? We are collecting a crew and we will send her to reinforce the Stoddard. She will make a couple of short runs in the next couple of days and then we will send her off to the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. That voyage will be a combination training mission slash shakedown cruise. As for the Gearing class destroyers, we have stopped working on the Sutherland. There were just too many material problems as for the other two ships well at least another month maybe more before they can be brought back into service.

    Now the cruisers the Des Moines and the Salem are now headed to Puerto Rico to a firing range down their where the two ships can do little training in with the two ships big gun. The voyage down will be will also be a training mission and shake down cruise we even sent a tug down so that when the two ships do their high-speed runs if either breaks down we can have a tug in position to bring her back to port. As for the Albany and Chicago, well its been decided to cease work on the Chicago just too many problems to deal with. But on the bright side we are stripping her for spare parts for the Albany but she will not be ready for sea until the end of August. Now as for the Hornet, we are getting her ready for service and we have put a tentative air group together and we will even have six Crusader ready for service as of now while we hoping to have six more ready for service in the next two weeks. The bulk of the Air group will be made up of A-4’s some in their traditional bomber roles and the rest will fill out the fighter group.

    Reagan left the meeting in a much better mood despite the fact that the United States was headed for war. But he knew he could do nothing to prevent that from happening. He was fully expecting to be at war and he had been thinking about what to do. He decided it was time to speak to the press in an impromptu press conference. The press was taken to the rose garden to speak to the President. One of the members of the Press had a real hardball question to nail the President with. The President a said a few comments about American making an all-out effort to make this peace conference a success. Then he took some questions. The reporter had told his friends in the Press Corp that he had the hard ball question of all time.


    When it came time to take questions, he was the first up and Reagan took his question. **Mr. President if war come and escalates to all out nuclear war. You will be flying in relative safety, while the people of America will no such option. How can you defend that fact? ** The look of shock on the faces of Reagans advisors were quite apparent. But Ronald Reagan did not even flinch, he had been thinking of that very same disturbing fact. That and the fact he knew his it would be better for him to die in the nuclear strike than live. **Well, I don’t see how I could justify that. To try to govern as the President of the United States after leading this country into an all-out nuclear exchange would be quite impossible. I and Nancy had talked often about that fact. I fully plan on staying at the White House during this crisis. George Bush is an experienced leader and he is well prepared to take over from me it necessary. If Nuclear missile are launched I will die in the first strike with Nancy and I will ask for volunteers to remain here at the White House during that period of extreme danger. No one will be force to stay here and I will send my staff off to various safe locations. **

    To say his comments were surprising was to understate the fact. The announcement of his plans to remain in Washington and die would make headlines across the world. Some were critical but other gave him a grudging bit of respect. The captain went down with his ship and if American went down so would the President. Reagan would pay for his failures with his life.

    The Peace Movement attempted to mock Reagan decision while leaders in his own party and government attempted to change his mind but Reagan would not be shaken from his decision. Across the country people nodded their heads in Reagan America had a real leader. They all knew that Reagan did what he said and if he said he would stay in Washington DC and take a nuke then he would do it. To mock him for it was not just disrespectful but totally insulting and more than a few fights broke out between people who made the made mistake around Reagan supporters.
     
  18. Archangel Battery-powered Bureaucrat

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    If nuclear war breaks out, continuity of government will be vital for all NATO (and allied) nations.
     
  19. Stonepile Well-Known Member

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    Oct 22, 2018
    Farmer please don't tell me Ted Kennedy will end up president in this TL on the platform of "I told you so", he's put the entire worlds lives on the line all for the sake of political grandstanding when he very well knows that America can't back down and bribe the Soviets for peace, he also must surely understand that the peace movement has no reasonable and realistic way to accomplish their goal and that his trying to split the nation diplomatically along political party lines is wrong and damaging.
     
  20. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

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    Jan 9, 2016
    Archangel- you are correct but going into much detail for more than the Americans and the Soviets would be difficult and take a bit to long. So I am going to try to get by with comments about other governments continuity efforts with little detail.
     
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