Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

[Crowbar Six]

The problem is that maybe the Soviet Union may not look at it the way your looking at it and figure that if your taking out the Yankees as you find them. The Soviet Union will go with the use it or lose it option with the survivors. They launch we launch and they launch everything else. Upsetting this apple cart is very dangerous. Also the Soviet Union may make it quite clear before the war starts. That if we go after the boomers off our coast they would consider it an escalation and launch a first strike. This is something to consider.

If they didn't put them there they wouldn't be at risk and the Russians would understand they are at risk. The Sov's will be expecting to lose at least some of them as they are quite exposed.

 

[sloreck]

The Soviets used NATO standards creatively in their designs. Their rifle calibers were such that they could use NATO ammunition with minor issues, but their ammo would not fit NATO weapons. Similarly their vehicles could be fueled from NATO standard fuel nozzles but their nozzles were just a touch too large to be used by NATO. Looting/using NATO supplies was not just something that would be a nice extra, but was a tactic planned for as they realized the logistic issues they were going to have as they advanced. In terms of the civilian population, while they Soviets would try to control "theft" by troops for disciplinary reasons, troops busy stealing are not doing other tasks they need to do, anything useful to the Soviet military would be taken period. Food, fuel, vehicles, medical supplies, etc would be taken until the shelves were bare. There were two reasons for this, the obvious is that every bit of necessary taken locally does not have to be brought forward, and the other was of all the people in the world the Russians might not care about pauperizing or starving the Germans top the list. Having said "stealing" would be controlled, this does not mean things like watches and money might not be removed from civilians, certainly civilian corpses would stripped.

Actual abuse of civilians like murder and rape is unlikely to occur in front areas, again a discipline issue, in rear areas, especially if military police are not around, not so much.

 

[michaelbaneblade]

Farmer once again this is a fantastic storey.
So the question I am going to ask now is what is the stratagy the two sides will use.
I am assuming the Warpack plan is to just steamroll NATO with the Catogary B and C divisions. While keeping the Catogary A divisions in reserve. For the big push.
But what is the NATO plan try to absorb the blows as much and Counter right into the best equiped Soviet Divisions.
Does anyone have a notion how they would try to ride this one out in terms of strategy.

 

[Farmer12]

ferdi254- movement of supplies to Germany rail cars depending on when they were built carry either 74 ton or 124 ton of cargo the 74 ton model is from the forties or fifties. One hundred older model railcars could move 7400 tons of food in one train for one day two hundred railcars would not only feed the forces in Germany they would also allow the build up of one days worth of rations per day that can be done in two one hundred car trains per day. During harvest season in the United States you would regularly see one hundred plus cars several times a day. Other trains can carry other supplies and the Soviet Military has spent it time planning the movement of at least twenty-five divisions in two week to Germany they have longer to move more troops. Also a lot of the lower grade units do not have the same amount of equipment as the first line units.

As for Fuel the Druzdha pipeline carried 1.2 to 1.4 million tons of oil per day to Eastern Europe daily and that pipeline was connected to Oil refineries in Poland, Czechoslovakia and East Germany. At least a few of the refineries in East Germany so the supply of fuel can be maintains and

 

[Farmer12]

Crowbar6- I was not aware of the stockpiles of M-1 carbines and Springfield and Lee Enfield's. But I do know that the Army refurbished at least two million M-14's to make up of a short of M-16's and the 42nd and 47th Infantry division are armed with M-14's. I do see your point about the Soviet Union expecting losses but I will consider what You and sloreck have said and decide a little bit later

 

[Farmer12]

sloreck- the requisitioning of supplies in frontline areas will occur and the Soviet Military will do its best to maintain order but problems will happen.

 

[Farmer12]

michaelbaneblade- B, C and D level division will be in the first waves, with some variation as to when the various division will show up. The A division will be the breakthrough elements and will appear with it looks like a break through has been achieved. NATO's frontline will catch hell at various location with the theory being if you hit enough place at one time hard enough you will crack the line somewhere and win. There is a briefing coming and you will be able to actual locate where the attacking force are and which NATO units are facing them at least in the Central Front. One thing my posting will slow down as i get into the war i am catching up with what i have written so far. So rather than post just to post i will post when i feel the story line is right. Once again the emphasis will be on the Central Front but i will be writing on the other fronts. I hope you will enjoy PS you will be roughly able to map out the NATO frontline from these briefing.

 

[Farmer12]

Chapter 20 The Light of Peace is going out
13/12 Moscow Countdown to W Day -11
Radio Moscow announced that Grigori Romanov the Secretary of the Central Committee had been voted the Next General Secretary of the Central Committee. The were no more comments of the radio.

The announcement rolled across the planet like a shockwave. Romanov exposure to the world had been the KAL-007. At the time he with Army Chief of Staff Ogarkov had spent the time threatening the world with nuclear devastation. With his repeat performance during the current crisis. The consensus was that Romanov was a hard-liner and not very interested in peace. Across the world to many it seemed like the lights were going out.

In Europe the peace protesters displayed a desperation that had not been seen before, the protests degenerated into a series of riots across Europe. The leadership of the Peace Movement called upon the current leadership of the NATO to make peace at any cost. The problem was that the current NATO leadership realized unlike the Peace Movement that the Soviet Union would want not just a pound of flesh but two pints of blood. They realized that eventually the Soviet Union would want to control Western Europe. Just like they did Eastern Europe and they and especially the leadership of the Peace Movement would all be on one-way trips to Siberia or into exile in the Americas. The hard left denied that abject surrender was their goal. They claimed they were just looking for peace.

10am Brussels General Rogers considered the request of an addition brigade of artillery. He knew that the current artillery was on light side for a Corp. The 115th with two battalions of 8” SP would also be attacked to the Corp. With that the agreement was finalized.

2pm London Soviet Embassy
Oleg Gordievsky sat in looking at the message from Moscow it was telling him that the Spetsnaz would be arriving in the United Kingdom. This meant that war was coming and the Soviet Union was engaged in the final preparations for that war. But there was no definitive date, he was told that would be given to him at a later date. He knew he would have to let his handlers know what was happening.

10am Washington DC
In the United States the news arrived and like in Europe the peace movement made claims and accusations against Reagan claiming that he was the cause of the current crisis. They beginning to regain the strength they had lost after Boston. Kennedy made the decision that he needed to make a stand. World Peace was the goal and he needed to make it clear that America must step back from the brink even if it meant going around Ronald Reagan to the Soviet Union. Peace not just necessary but essential to saving the world.

He would make it clear tomorrow in a speech before the senate. He had no doubt that the Republicans would oppose him. He was equally sure that there were Senators in the Democratic party would oppose his plans. But his plan had to be carried out and he would carry it out. The Democratic Party must stand up and demand that the Senate and House take over the negotiations from Reagan and his administration. That a delegation would be chosen by the House and Senate he knew that the proposal would be opposed and stopped at least in the Senate. But in the House, they had a chance to push through the plan to send a delegation to Moscow.

Reagan considered what he had been told about the new leader of the Soviet Union. Not that anyone knew very much about Romanov. All they did know was that he was thought to be hard lined and he definitely had allies in the Soviet military. The announcement that told he world that Romanov was the new leader of the Soviet Union. But it had said nothing about accepting Reagans offer to send Kissinger to Moscow.


8pm London Gordievsky walked into the neighborhood pub, nothing unusual he came in at least three or four times a week. One of his assistants had commented on it and he replied, **I talked to the locals, to see what they are thinking. If the only people you talk to are the elites and leadership you are only getting half the story. Finding out what the average person is saying can be very informative. You never know what you will hear and it get to practice my English on a regular basis. This also allowed him the chance to meet his contact in British Intelligence. The information passed would no doubt cause all sorts of chaos inside the British government and no doubt the other NATO countries. That is if the British government told anyone what they knew.


11PM 10 Downing St.
The message passed by Gordievsky had caused quite a commotion inside the British Intelligence community. The news that the Spetsnaz was on its way to the United Kingdom. It was now quite clear that the Soviet Union was prepping for war. They even had a pretty good idea that the war would start in about ten days. The message made it clear that the Spetsnaz was being trickled in over the next ten days. The information was so hot that they had to immediately informed the Prime Minister.

Margaret Thatcher was listening to what was being said, with her hastily gathered advisors. After the briefing was over they made the decision to call Ronald Reagan about what had been discovered. She made the call, Ronald Reagan could not believe his ears. The Soviet Union was moving Spetsnaz into the United Kingdom and that the movement would happen over a ten-day period. The problem for Reagan was that only a few junior personnel were on hand to advise him. On the other hand, he was for once the first to know what was going on and when his daily briefing was held tomorrow that bit of news would not be a surprise.

Margaret Thatcher then sent orders to the 6th and 43rd divisions to speed up their movement into their new positions so that the German 3rd Corp could pulled, from the line.

 

[sloreck]

The speech in the Senate will be interesting, a bill for such a demand would never make it to the floor, and Kennedy will be way out on a limb with people in his own party sawing the limb. By the time the intelligence is sanitized, and goes out to field commanders there will still be 4-5 days to make final preparations before the attack actually happens. Units in Europe (or other theaters) can be shuffled around over the next week. Some personnel and key supplies can be airlifted in. Any convoys at sea, going to Europe/Korea or elsewhere need to be told to crack up to max speed to make port before the expected date of attack, or to look at alternate ports for delivery/safety if need be. All naval units need to be at sea when the ultimatum is issued, and maintenance/repair work over the next week needs to be prioritized to those units that can go to sea within a week, likewise all service force ships need to be topped up and at sea on that day. Similarly all aircraft dispersal needs to be accelerated - and some bases prepped with ground crews but no aircraft so they can be moved at the last minute for recovery and/or confusing Soviet targeting.

I wonder what the status is of NATO conversations with Sweden, Finland, and Switzerland. Are there agreements in place that if Soviet forces attack they will allow NATO to transit and also help them defend?

In the USA and elsewhere I am sure the security services have lists of folks to be detained the minute the first bullet is fired. Some are known/suspected agents, others "useful idiots" who would aid the USSR by sabotaging efforts in the name of "peace". In the USA a declaration of war will allow suspension of the Posse Comitatus Act, so that the military can be used for law enforcement in the USA MP units assisting local and federal efforts as needed. Also, the government(s) need to get proclamations concerning rationing of things like gasoline and food ready to go.

 

[Farmer12]

Kennedy is busy trying to save the world and he will not look left or right nor up or down the will just look straight ahead at the dream of peace. He will have a group of followers with the same dream but the rest of the Democratic Party while not happy about going to war with the Soviet Union. They are just as unhappy over Kennedy grandstanding in the middle of a crisis and opening trying to under cut the president of the United States. Mondale will be just as unhappy since if he manages to become President the Republicans might be tempted to pull the same stunt on him.

Until the war breaks out units will be on the move convoys will be moving as fast as possible. Any ships in port will be headed out to sea unless the repair problems force the ship to remain in port. While various military bases of all types will be readying to repaired was damaged aircraft and ships. Dispersal units will be sent out to various civilian locations that can support military aircraft. As well as the odd military base that has been closed down but still have operation landing strips. Unit can support aircraft from those old bases.

The option to use military units for civilian policing is not likely until a nuke strike happens. The press would go screaming about Reagan's attempt to build dictatorship. As for arrest suspected and know enemy agents will be arrested but the useful idiots will likely go free until they do something that really give the Reagan administration the excuse to act.

Switzerland is play everything close to the vest. Sweden will only become involve once their neutrality has been violated and Finland is hoping the massing forces on their border is a bluff. This is until they get the final ultimatum.

 

[DarkObelisk]

Once the balloon goes up all those suspected agents who haven’t been arrested due to lack of evidence will be buried in deep holes.
And I’m sure that the paperwork for declaring a State of Emergency, suspending Habeas Corpus and instituting Martial Law nationwide will have been drawn up and will just be waiting for Reagan’s signature.
Another thing that will be interesting will be seeing how the American population disperses across the country. The more time the country has to disperse and dig in the greater the survivability of a nuclear war.

On the Soviet side they are in the worse possible position that they could be in. They have allowed NATO to fully mobilize, and with their intelligence leak, they will know an approximate launch date for the Soviet offensive. And while I’m sure that the Red Army will buckle the NATO lines by using human wave attacks across the breadth of the European Front from the Cat B & C divisions. I don’t see how they could totally break NATO lines by charging into the teeth of the Allied Defenses.

Well Farmer, you’ve got me at the edge of my chair, waiting to see what happens next.

 

[sloreck]

I agree with @DarkObelisk : NATO has a great deal more productive capability than the USSR/WP and they have now accelerated production, as well as rehabbing older gear BEFORE the actual fighting starts. The USA and allies have had time to get most of their deployable forces at least to the general area where they will be used, and a large percentage of those will be in position when the war starts. With a very few exceptions the east bound Atlantic convoys will be in or very near their ports of debarkation when the fighting starts, meaning westbound covys with empty ships will be the target set for Soviet subs - while sinking those is valuable, sinking loaded ships is better. The Soviet submarine force is going to be the most effective during the opening phases of the war - with losses, the need to return to the USSR for rearmament and/or refueling through the heavily defended GIUK Gap and then running that again on the way out, their conventional subs especially will be atritted severely. The US/Canada support of the fighting in Europe in terms of logistics has already shifted to sustainment. Both sides are going to find expenditures are way above estimates, but ITTL stocks of expendables and POL have been built up by NATO and factories are working overtime.

The Soviets still control the exact timing and what points of attack they will emphasize. As they noted they have lost strategic surprise, and they don't recognize they have lost some elements of tactical surprise. The question is how long will the war stay conventional before one side or the other unleashes WMD, in particular nukes. If the Soviets make it to the Franco-German border, even in one small area and a tank company crosses will that unleash the Force de Frappe? Would serious conventional bombing do so? What happens if the Soviets get held up and the generals on the scene request a couple of tacnukes to crack open the defenses? Will a submarine commander be tempted to use a nuclear torpedo or nuclear missile to take out a carrier and the battle group if such a target is presented and he is being hinted heavily? Lots and lots of unscripted ways for the genie to be out of the bottle, and once that happens all bets are off...

 

[basileus]

Any war with a long time of preparation is unwinnable by the Red Army, whose only hope would be a quick, out-of-the-blue attack during some major Western holiday coupled with a human-delivered nuclear decapitation strike against Washington, Langley, the Pentagon and main NATO command & control centers in Europe. Actually, indeed, the Soviets never seriously planned to attack, apart as an academic exercise in futility. The Soviet leadership in its highest echelons was made of old men frightened by war and haunted by its memory, the last thing they wanted was another taste of it; better to cling on power and privilege.

 

[Farmer12]

The Politburo chose war because the alternative would be the collapse of their power if thing went bad and considering how things have gone on so far. Expecting the worst to happen seems to be common sense. They also know if a revolution happens they would be the first ones with their backs against the wall and like as not a good number of their Families, relatives and friends. The leadership of the Politburo feel like they are cornered and playing it safe will not get them anywhere.

The Soviet Union can only win in the first few weeks of the war after that the situation will start going downhill. They are committing almost all of their troops to this campaign. They fail and they know they will be in big trouble. No one should doubt that and the longer the war goes and the worst the situation is the more desperate they will get. You all know how that will go.

 

[sloreck]

IMHO the only way something like this ends "well" is for internal collapse in the WP and USSR to occur in such a way that nukes don't fly. The problem is the desperate fools will believe that somehow using nukes will salvage the situation to bring an acceptable end, and status quo ante bellum is not the minimum salvage they would accept. Their minimum is they survive and continue to run the USSR, this means significant concessions from NATO, in other words not a white peace but a victory even if limited. Not happening - if they can't make NATO say "uncle" conventionally and in short order, it ain't happening...

 

[Farmer12]

True, they would have seen an example of that in 1982. The Falkland War was suppose to assure the survival of the Dictatorship it just accelerated its collapse. Only the Argentinians did not have nukes. But grasping at straws to maintain power is the frequent reaction of people attempting to hold onto power.

 

[sloreck]

Given the landscape of the USSR after a nuclear exchange to take the steps that would cause that means the leaders in the Kremlin believe "better to rule in Hell than serve in Heaven" - as that USSR would be a hell. N.K. once said in the aftermath of a nuclear war the living would envy the dead. He had seen war up close, and was many things but not a fool.

 

[Farmer12]

Well they have convinced themselves that they can pull off a victory without using nukes. Its only later as the use of nuke becomes necessary will they be pulled further in. The reason will be not wanting to face the consequences of their poor decision making. But everyone will see that when the time comes.

 

[ferdi254]

So just to get the full picture here. Between the various armies the WP will have roughly 3.8 mio men against 2.9 NATO on the central front. Those defending troops will know more or less exactly when and even most likely (if NATO intelligence is not absolutely stupid) where the attack will go.

Those 3.8 will to a large extent be equpped with obsolete weapons and without much of the support units needed, hardly trained at all and from day one at the end of a bad logistic.

NATO has the cruise missiles and F117 to destroy the logistic or attack headquarters as they want to, have their troops fully supplied and trained for the last weeks and on average much better and better maintained equipment and a much better logistical situation. Plus if not total idiots have enough arty ready to destroy roads/bridges near the border on the eastern side in the first five minutes of the conflict. Plus all bridges on the western side will go up as well.

Last time I looked it up the NATO had about two ASW ships for each soviet sub.

On the southern front the WP is outnumbered 3:1.

Unless some more OTL myths of the 80s make their appearance (like european armies not up to the fight or the fantasized reliability of the soviet weaponry) it will be a slaughterhouse for the WP.

Farmer one train car/hour relates with very generous speeding up to 100 cars/day. Even with 100 tons each this is just 10.000 tons/day. This will not feed, fuel or ammunition an army of 3.8 mio.

 

[Farmer12]

14/13 Aug. War Day - 10
10am Moscow
The Foreign Ministry announced that the Soviet Union would accept Reagan’s offer to continue to negotiate with the Soviet Union. The announcement that the Soviet Union had accepted Reagans offer to continue the negotiations was well received by the world but as the day went on key leaders of the NATO alliance were told what the British had discovered. It had been decided to limit the number people that knew what was really happening.

Vienna Faced with the reality that war was probably going to happen the Austrian government approached NATO representatives about moving its Mountain troops into the previously agreed defensive positions with an additional request to move the promised Alpine troops into the Austrian Alps. As well as the reinforced Iberian Division. But a new request was made that one division of either the German or Italian Army could be moved into northern Austria to help protect that part of the country. The German representative stated emphatically that they had no divisions to spare. The Italians while having no problems with committing the previously agreed troops hesitated about sending any more troops.

The Austrians pointed out that the Centauro Division was currently in reserve and could be made available. The Italians points pointed out that the Centauro division was the 3rd Corps only active division and the 3rd Corps mission was as to reinforce the 5th Corp if necessary. The Austrians reply was quick, first they pointed out that it was increasingly unlikely that Yugoslavia would join the war against NATO and that the 5th Corp by itself was more than sufficient to protect that section of the border. They also pointed out that the Slovenians and Croats would be on Italy’s side of a war did break out making it much easier for the Italian Army to handle any Soviet Aggression. Finally, they commented that other could be called into service is necessary.

The Italians were left of balance it was obvious that the Austrians had been doing their research. The German’s did not mention that they had provided a lot of the information to the Austrians on Italian planning. The moving of the Centauro Division into the area of the border close to the German border would cover the southern flank of 2nd Corp. The Austrians wanted the division further east but the German would encourage the Italians to pick a position close to the German border. In the end the Italian told the Austrians and Germans that they had to consult Rome before any decision could be made.

Portsmouth The Hermes was given orders to return to port to be readied for sea duty. The carrier group was being formed around the Hermes the Destroyer Antrim and the Frigate Falmouth were to form part of the escort group for the Hermes. The rumor was that they would be hunting Soviet Submarines in and around the Azores. The Tiger was also going to sea the crew was not fully formed as the Admiralty would prefer. But it was decided to get the Tiger and the Destroyer Beaver and the tanker Plumleaf was to rendezvous with the two ships out at sea. Everyone on board both ships realized that where every they were going was not going to an area where resupply could be expected. Just where the task force was head no one was saying. But the word was Norway.


Cadiz
At the naval base the carrier Dadelo readying for sea as a task force was being formed around It. The Spanish Armada was actually feeling some enthusiasm about the upcoming assignment. They were not sure what the mission was but they had been told it as strategic. Three of the Baleares class frigates the Baleares, the Andalucia and the Asturias were to be her escorts. A senior Admirante would have command of the Task Force. Rumor had it he was in consultation with the Royal Navy in London. The KGB was watching but rumors made it clear that the Dadelo would be watching the Straits of Gibraltar and the surrounding waters. The rumors stated that the plan was to make sure no more submarines slipped into the Mediterranean Sea.


At the Ferrol, a pair of Atrevida class frigates, the Princesa and the Nautilus were getting ready for sea also civilian freighter Oriana that had been requisitioned and she was being loaded with all sorts of cargo mostly food and spare parts. What dock workers noticed a lot of food was from the UK and a lot of boxes that were carrying spare parts were also labeled in English. The cargo did cause a bit of discussion amongst the dock workers but the Spanish Naval officers commented the ship was to be used to supply ships both Spanish and British hunting Soviet Submarines between Spain and the Azores. A bit of logic that the dockworkers all agreed made sense. The KGB agents in the port agreed with that bit of logic to and they report what as happening.

At Brest the Rubis and the La Saphir were both being readied for sea, just where they were going no one was saying but it was hoped it would not be to the North Atlantic. The Rubis class was a bit on the noisy side. Since silence was important in the submarine service that noise was definitely a problem.

Washington DC
Ronald Reagan sat down with his senior advisors including Kissinger the news from London was announced and the room went silent. Kissinger looked around the room and told them, **If we tell the world what we know then we lose any advantage the knowledge provides us. We need to keep this secret despite the fact that it shows the offer made by the Soviet Union as a farce. **

One of the civilian advisors commented, ** Would it not be better to tell the world the news could force the Soviet Union to backdown. ** Kissinger looked at the man and he commented, **More likely the Soviet Union would launch an immediate attack including nuclear weapons to win the war. We need to keep our mouths closed and our eyes open. ** There were no other comments then Reagan spoke, ** Henry you will be in the most difficult position that anyone has ever been in carrying out a mission that has almost no chance of success. ** Kissinger nodded his head, then he replied, **We will attempt to find a solution to the crisis. But I doubt that the Soviet Union will be willing to find a path to peace. I have feeling that unless we give them everything that they want they will not be satisfied. **

Reagan considered his response, **Well, Henry you will go and you do the best that you can if you can get them to agree to a plan. You will be a great hero and no doubt you will get a Nobel Prize for Peace. Fail well we know that the chances of success are limited at best, do the best that you can. **

With the discussion done, Reagan and Kissinger both walked out into the Rose Garden. Then Reagan announced that the United States had accepted the Soviet Unions off to continue negotiations I Moscow. All they needed what when Kissinger needed to be in Moscow. The press was excited at the news that the road to peace was again. Reagan and Kissinger walked away from the announcement both men were feeling depressed. That war was coming and there was not much they could do to prevent the war.