Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Farmer12, Sep 14, 2016.

Loading...
  1. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    When will the first draftees be available for replacements in infantry, and likewise draftees from the medical professions as well as other specilalsts (lawyers, certain scientists/engineers who can go through an OCS and be useful on duty somewhere.
     
  2. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    sloreck the first draft will be in early august with first draftees showing up about two weeks later. The units to do the training are organized and ready to go but the draft boards have to organized. But draft centers able to handle large numbers of draftees have to be found and organized. Then we would look at the standard training times basic is if i remember right eight weeks and infantry training would be another eight weeks. So unless they are already in the pipeline replacements will almost exclusively come from prior service troops for the first four months unless they cut corners in training. Highly since a poorly trained infantryman dies very quickly and takes others with him.
     
  3. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    FYI for medical professionals and folks like lawyers they go through a 2-3 week OCS, after which the medical folks at least could be sent to some fixed facility in the USA. Before they could go overseas, they would need extra training. Things like field training, chemical war training both personal and treating casualties and all sorts of stuff. So, IMHO the earliest you'd see medical folks actually arriving anywhere would be 4-6 weeks after they get a draft notice. This is like doctors, dentists, nurses, etc - and in 1984 all male. any female medical folks would be volunteers so probably have had some of these already (in addition to any male volunteers).

    For some time already the CRAF program has been going full bore - this is using civilian airliners flown by civilian personnel for troop and cargo movement (personal note I flew to/from Saudi Arabia during Desert Shield/Desert Storm that way). Between this and the recall of reserve or recently discharged pilots from airline jobs, civilian airline traffic will have been significantly affected - AMTRAK is doing a land office business and perhaps if the world does not blow up, railroads might get some money for improvement. You could even see some lines now used only for freight or usable but out of service running some passenger service if gas rationing starts.
     
  4. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    The CRAF was mobilized even before the troops were being sent. Given what your telling me then in about the beginning of September the first doctors will appear. But if the number of casualties gets to high some officers in training may be drafted into early service to help with the wave of casualties. Also the VA hospital have not been making it obvious but they have been thinning out the number of patients at the various hospitals.That way some of the casualties will find their way to VA hospitals. By the way thanks for the info on military doctors.
     
  5. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    My pleasure. Let me summarize as to the situation with medical personnel (includes doctors, dentists, nurses, therapists etc) in 1984.

    1. Active duty: this is obvious however OTL there were significant shortage is wartime critical specialties as the last Berry Plan doctors had pretty much left unless they had decided on a military career (very few).
    2. Reserves: again short overall and in critical specialties. Those in the "active reserve" would be called up with their units and/or scooped up to fill holes ASAP. The "standby reserve" folks, not drilling but still on the books, could be called up with some delays in finding them (literally) and then ensuring they were not medically disqualified. They would go to fill holes, may need some retraining
    3. Retirees and recently released from active duty: Like the standby reserve, find them, ensure they are not medically disqualified, and plug them in. Probably need some retraining if deployed.
    4. "Officers in training": Until an MD has completed at least one year of postgraduate training (internship) they can't be used as doctors and won't be touched (like WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam). Those doctors in PG training, whether in military hospitals or in civilian programs would be called to active service under the following scheme - those who had completed >50% of their PG training would be assigned as specialists in their area, those with <50% PG training would be assigned as general medical officers (GMOs) & all PG training programs in military hospitals except for internships would be suspended. This would also go for folks like dentists or specialist nurses in PG training. The folks in training would generally be people who had taken a scholarship in return for service payback.
    5. Draftees: As discussed. Unlike categories 1-4 these would only be males as there was no legal authority to draft females. As an interesting point, while those with previous service and no remaining obligation were exempt from the draft under law, if you served previously as other than a doctor/dentist you could be drafted again as a medical professional.
    6. Volunteers: Like with draftees, these folks need to be professionally vetted and then go through the "knife and fork" OCS before assignment at a minimum, so roughly 4+ weeks from recruitment to first duty station. In this category, both males and females in all specialties would be coming in.

    In 1984 there were increasing numbers of females in medical and dental practice compared with the 1960s, although still a relatively small percentage and more females in these jobs in the armed forces than before or in scholarship programs. However there were still limitations on what sorts of units they could be assigned to although like in the past field hospitals were open and now some ships. Smaller field medical units and most ships were still off limits for females. The number of males in the nursing profession in 1984 was much smaller than in 2018 and absent the draft other than scholarship students this would require significant volunteerism. This also applies for physical/occupational therapists etc.

    Another issue in 1984 was that due to the shortage of American physicians going in the military, there were a significant number of foreign medical graduates who were non-citizens in the military. This could potentially cause problems with deployability, concerns over security issues etc.

    On a personal note at this time I was finishing my PG training in orthopaedic surgery (6/84) and was to begin a fellowship in hand/microsurgery (7/84 for a year). I had 5 years previous service as a line officer (Navy) before med school and was in the reserves in a flex drill program for residents. I would have been snapped up in a New York minute and most liely assigned to a field hospital unit of whatever size deployed in support of the Marines due to my medical specialty, and previous experience...
     
    Jack Brisco, Jukra and Rifleman like this.
  6. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    When i said Doctors that have not completed training. I meant officer training not medical training. He spent one week so far in officer training but has not complete his training as an officer and is put into a hospital to fill in gaps in medical staff.

    Foreigners in military could be used to fill out US hospitals allowing other personnel to be sent overseas. As for draft and females well we are screwed and will have to make do as best we can since it is highly unlikely that the Senate and Congress would approve of drafting females.
     
  7. ferdi254 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2018
    Farmer there was no cash crunch on internal spending. Think of WW1 Germany had no real trouble financing it as long as it was not spending on foreign goods.

    So for own people just print rubles as Germany did in both WWs.

    Why the USSR was broke was because it did take loans in USD to pay for better living circumstances for WP states and was not able to keep that up.
     
  8. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    YThe OCS for doctors is only 2-3 weeks, however by law they have to have it before they can be assigned anywhere even in CONUS.
     
    Jack Brisco likes this.
  9. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    sloreck I imagine like everything else when you have massive surplus wounded with a shortage of doctors you find away around the rules. Also i remember a Captain telling me an old army expression, He who lives by the regs goes down by the regs.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
    Jack Brisco likes this.
  10. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    ferdi254- What your forgetting is that massive number of men have been mobilized disrupting production all in sectors of industry and that massive numbers of trucks have be taken out of the economy and the railroads have a priority of shipping troops, equipment and supplies to eastern Europe. While one of the major sources of revenue is oil. I should have mentioned it but Western Europe froze payments on oil until the crisis is over. At the same time military spending has shot up. They cannot print rubles fast enough in this situation. Also unlike during the World Wars the economy was already in trouble prior to the crisis. So things have just sped up. With all of the factors.
     
    Jack Brisco likes this.
  11. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    "Better to ask forgiveness than permission" I have used that myself in the military, and agree rules will be bent once the feces has hit the rotating ventilator, until then nope. Skipping legally mandated training before fighting breaks out would be something the "peace" faction would trumpet as "proof" that Reagan is planning a war.

    The problem is/would be that pushing folks from the induction center to a hospital only helps a little bit. The big problem is going to be at the pointy end. The "golden hour" you hear about in trauma care is very real. Its not definitive surgery, but "damage control" surgery and resuscitation that needs to be done very quickly, major fixing can be done later. A point that folks tend to forget about "medical" is that casualties, often a lot, happen on minute one and that is when you need to have adequate systems (including personnel and equipment) in place. "Just in time" inventory or personnel does not work for trauma care.

    If fighting happens, and things don't involve a lot of instant sunshine right away, I would bet that the same folks that are/will dig their heels in about pumping up medical support by getting new folks in now and trained BEFORE bullets fly will be the first to complain with headlines 'AMERICAN BOYS DIE DUE TO INADEQUATE MEDICAL CARE".
     
  12. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    sloreck- things go the speed that the situation will allow. With the anti-war protesters you will be damned if you do damned if you don't and the is pretty much how things go.
     
    Jack Brisco likes this.
  13. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    1st Aug 31st Jul A new Beginning Day 3
    Townsville Australia The Peleliu with the LST’s Schenectady and Cayuga arrived in the harbor as it took up position with a pair of escorts a Spruance class destroyer the Oldendorf a ship well known to both the Australian and New Zealand Navies. As well as a Perry class frigate Sides the plan was simple the two New Zealand amphibious as well as a pair of destroyers from the Royal New Zealand Navy as well as two Royal Australian Navy to form a new amphibious force. For the price of allowing the Paratroop company of the New Zealand army to become part of the strategic mobile reserve New Zealand now had the ability to move its entire 1st brigade in an amphibious assault.

    New Delhi
    The first real session of the peace conference would in the afternoon, the arrival of the Economist from Moscow would have a chance to brief Gromyko before the actual conference began. Gromyko’s reaction was that of shock. He never realized just how bad the economic situation was. He realized that while the Politburo were debating what to do he would not be there to defend the interests of the Foreign Ministry. Not to mention that fact that with him in New Delhi would mean that his allies would have one less vote on the Politburo. That could sway the whole problem to a solution back by the hardliners. That was disturbing, now the decision for him to hold firm on the demands while the Politburo debated what to do did make sense.

    Moscow The sudden arrival of the cash crunch had caught the Politburo totally by surprise. Now they were going to have to make some very hard decisions. One suggestion was made that to cut back on the production of meat animals. The argument was there would be an increase in the amount of meat available during the early part of the cash crunch which could be used to keep the moral of the population up. But it was pointed out that that this would ensure that meat would virtually disappear at a later date in the crisis. That shortage could come at an inopportune time that could simply add on to the troubles of the Soviet Union at a later date.

    The idea of cutting down on foreign aid was to a degree palatable but the loss of influence would rapidly become apparent. The idea that various governments over seas that relied on the foreign aid to stay in power would have to look to the west for foreign aid. Those governments that were not acceptable to the West could find themselves cut off from all aid. Those governments could lose power and government that took over could be hostile to the Soviet Union. Even worse was the idea of cut off funding to the WARSAW Pact nations and the effect that would have on the Soviet Unions strategic situation. Chernenko pointed out that if funding for the WARSAW Pact nations was cut off those governments would collapse. That would mean that governments hostile to the Soviet Union could take over. Germany could end up reunited with Poland ran by Lech Walesa and Solidarity. That cause a negative reaction.

    The day was not one of decision but of finding a way to ignore financial crisis or at least that was what some of the Politburo wanted to do. But Gorbachev was quick to point out that the Politburo needed to fact the reality of the current situation and cuts anywhere and everywhere should be considered.

    Rotterdam
    The fast convoy left the harbor on day late, a variety of minor unexpected repairs had to be made and further repairs would be needed the convoy would be delay in Boston for an extra day or two to take care of those issues.

    Washington DC President Reagan received variety of news, none of it good, the Turks were unhappy about the level of support they had received versus the Greeks. Now they were demanding more reinforcements or they just might sit out the crisis. Then the reports on the needed repairs to the fast convoy when it arrived in Boston were discussed. While the movement of the Canadian Mobile Forces 3rd brigade to Boston was brought up. On the other hand, the Canadians had been honest about not being sure that the whole brigade could be in Boston in just four days that they might need an extra day or two to get the force to Boston.
    Reagan commented, **Well at least one thing good will come out of the delay of the Fast convoy. We can give the Canadians more time to move their 3rd brigade to Boston. ** The rest of the NSC nodded their heads in agreement. It was agreed to have a message sent ASAP to the Canadian National Defense Headquarters informing them of the current situation. A phone call was made and the meeting went on.

    There had been some discussion about sending the two Marine brigades to Europe. But as time went on the Marine Corp were arguing that the two cadre divisions should stay inside the United States until such time at least one of the divisions was up to full strength. The current Marine Corp commandant argued that moving the 6th Marine Divisions back to Camp Pendleton to fill out the divisions troop strength. Stating that this division should be the Pacific Fleets strategic reserve. It will take just about all the equipment the Marine Corp has to bring the 6thup to full strength as possible. The division sill lacked an air wing but it had much of its other equipment.


    Then Weinberger commented, **We still need a strategic reserve of some kind, the 42nd and the 6th is an understrength division with nearly a full complement of complement of equipment and the 5th which full equipped full strength brigade, will be that strategic reserve. While the 163rd and the 47th still go to Europe. But I should tell you that we will not begin moving the 47th until the 2nd of August. We have a lot of support units that we need in Europe being moved over by air so the movement. But we still plan moving the 163rd on time. ** Reagan considered what he was being told, he did not like the idea of keeping troops outside Europe but they did a strategic reserve. Then to be told that the latest front combat units was being delayed to move vitally needed support units to Europe forced him to face certain realities. Finally, he nodded his head in agreement but with a comment, **We must be prepared to send more troops if necessary. ** With that the meeting was over.
     
  14. MKD Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2017
    Location:
    Milton Keynes Central
    really enjoying this thread - keep it up!
     
  15. Geon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2010
    So, I'm guessing at this point initiating an operation like Zhukov-4 (assumes total surprise) which General Alekseyev proposed in Red Storm Rising is now totally out of the question!
     
  16. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    MKD Thankyou
     
    MKD likes this.
  17. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    Geon- Yah total surprise is not possible, at best a moment of shock and surprise and then all out war.
     
  18. sloreck Grunt Bear

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2008
    Location:
    Midwest
    Right now every intel asset NATO has is focused on the WP in Europe. Satellite recon, radio listening, agents on the ground etc. The WP can hid some things but not others. tactical surprise in some places in Europe probably can happen, but right now preparations are in high gear. Fighting positions are surveyed and ready and so forth. A lot of the bridges in Germany and elsewhere when built had chambers for explosives if demolition needed and I would bet that a lot of demo charges are now in place, with small units if engineers on site to ensure those bridges go down. Sure paratroop or heliborne troops can grab some before they are blown if they are lucky, but being channelized over a very limited number of river crossings is both a blessing and a curse.

    In the SW Pacific where you have significant forces compared to OTL for the Soviets, some funky things could happen. A lot would depend upon how many Soviet naval assets are able to strike and hide before they are hunted down.

    If the Soviets use chemicals in their initial attacks, things will go very bad very quickly for everyone. If NATO uses nuclear landmines early on, likewise.
     
    Barry Bull and michaelbaneblade like this.
  19. Farmer12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    The best the Soviet could hope for is tactical surprise at best. I was reading about Bougainville's constant attempts at breaking free of Paupau New Guinea and it was just to tempting to play with and the possible butterfly's. The main strength of the Soviet Union is its submarine force the surface ships are to few to do much but delay the ANZUS ALLIANCE for awhile. As for chemical attack and nuclear mines that depends on decision making on both sides
     
  20. Christory Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2018
    How much longer until the Big Kaboom?
     
Loading...