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I've often read scenarios that assume slavery in the north is promptly abolished following defeat. But I'm not sure that is accurate and so would like the opinions of others on that.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that the Confederates win, probably via a British intervention sometime in 1862-63.

Assuming an end to the war in 1863 what is going to happen to the border states? You will still have a few slave states at least, and the Union holding onto Kentucky and West Virginia is quite plausible to say the least.

Slavery remained entrenched in all those states except for West Virginia, which had, per the Willey amendment (that was necessary for the Republicans to allow them statehood) a system of emancipation for certain age groups which would have freed its first slave in 1867 and from what I understand of the rules I don't think all of the slaves were going to be freed even in the long term, although certainly most would have.

It would seem plausible that McClellan and Pendleton would win the 1864 election given that the Republicans are demoralized and quite possibly fractured into two parties at this point (I could see Fremont's Radical Democracy *party fulminating over the peace and everything associated with it).

Now McClellan and the rest of the northern Democrats so far as I'm aware tended to not be particularly against slavery, and many of the Copperheads who would probably grow in strength by having been proven right were positively in favour of it,

Given that the likely Democratic position in the immediate aftermath of a devastating defeat would probably be trying to peacefully woo the southern states back (which was their historical stance in 1864) given that the military option had been a clear failure - would they move to abolish slavery any time soon in the border states?

Aside from the states there is slavery in the territories and particularly the District of Columbia, which was abolished by Congress in 1862 - would the restoration of slavery in the District of Columbia at least be possible, as a peace offering to the south and a "screw-you" to the Republicans?

Long term of course slavery was going to pass away in the North, just as it would inevitably die in the South (and even Brazil or the Soudan) but I'm wondering how long it would have lasted. Long term of course most people in the US would finally realize that the South isn't coming back, at least peacefully and slavery is only going to become more odious to the general public, but is the abolition of slavery in the 1860s likely? Or are we going to see a compensated manumission happening like in DC sometime in the late 1860s, or a gradual emancipation (sort of like West Virginia but more thorough) start up?

Or would slavery just be abolished via a constitutional amendment in the mid 1860s regardless?

Incidentally - does anyone think the Constitutional Union party could have survived under such circumstances or was it moribund?


*Speaking of Radical Democracy - what would you call the members of such a party? Radical Democrats doesn't really work, given that they are technically Radical Republicans and absolutely hate the Democrats - would they be called simply Radicals?
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