Sky Fall.

I have a little interest in football, though I did enjoy reading this, and while it is certainly an interesting concept, it does seems a little dire on the effects of such a large loss of revenue.

Firstly, the loss of 80% of TV revenue won't be as damming for the clubs which have just come from the Championship - they might just be able to hold it together, especially as even the remaining sum of TV revenue will still be far in excess of the Championship Money - Newcastle, Brighton and Hove, and Huddersfield Town might be able to do it, especially if they can sell a few players on the cheap in January. Burnley, Bournemouth and Watford haven't come up too long ago, and again they don't quite have the same overheads as the big clubs. Some established are going into adminstration, but that is such.

Secondly, the Clubs might agree to a emergency sell of rights for the remaining games of the season - ITV might get a block or two at a bargin price, and you might even see a new channel form with a load of venture capital. Might Netflix or Amazon decide that livestreaming games via their platforms might gain extra customers, and again, grab a block or two each? Lots of Sky customers will have their checkbook out and would be looking for somewhere to watch Footie- some might realise what an utter waste of money satellite TV is, but that can't be helped. What about foreign customers? If they get their games though Sky, might the Premier League be able to deal directly with them and get at least some of the money Sky got from them.

Thirdly, and finally, would the clubs have some sort of plans in place in the case such a large source of income is lost, which is reliant on the success of one business? Wouldn't you be able to get rid of players with a clause in their contracts for situtions like this, which no agent has ever worried about? Wouldn't you have a policy at Lloyd's in case you lost such a massive chunk of money overnight to at least provide you with half the money you might otherwise get?

So, it is a very nice bit of writing, but it is a bit apocalyptic.
 
How stable are the finances of the Spanish, German, Italian and French leagues?

The Serie A will be hit hard but it won't collapse like the Premiership necessarily, Sky Italia is dominant but companies like Mediaset have individual deals with individual clubs already, there's precedent there. Eurosport has already been making progress in fighting Sky Deutchsland's monopoly so the Bundesliga should manage to survive relatively intact, ZDF would be interested as well, they have options. France isn't in the same danger England, Italy, or Germany would face, things are much healthier with Canal and vairous other competitors. Spain probably comes out of this the best, La Liga lacks any sort of monopoly or duopoly and its market is far more organic anyways.
 
Might Netflix or Amazon decide that livestreaming games via their platforms might gain extra customers, and again, grab a block or two each?

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Firstly, the loss of 80% of TV revenue won't be as damming for the clubs which have just come from the Championship - they might just be able to hold it together, especially as even the remaining sum of TV revenue will still be far in excess of the Championship Money - Newcastle, Brighton and Hove, and Huddersfield Town might be able to do it, especially if they can sell a few players on the cheap in January. Burnley, Bournemouth and Watford haven't come up too long ago, and again they don't quite have the same overheads as the big clubs. Some established are going into adminstration, but that is such.
Of the clubs you mention, the majority survive, indeed two of them are battling for the title after it goes off.
Secondly, the Clubs might agree to a emergency sell of rights for the remaining games of the season - ITV might get a block or two at a bargin price, and you might even see a new channel form with a load of venture capital. Might Netflix or Amazon decide that livestreaming games via their platforms might gain extra customers, and again, grab a block or two each? Lots of Sky customers will have their checkbook out and would be looking for somewhere to watch Footie- some might realise what an utter waste of money satellite TV is, but that can't be helped. What about foreign customers? If they get their games though Sky, might the Premier League be able to deal directly with them and get at least some of the money Sky got from them.
I mentioned upthread that even if twenty million people paid a tenner a month, the income would be £240 million p/a. English club football is grossly overvalued. I have no doubt that some revenue would be made back, but the sheer scale of the Sky money means the impact would be a nuclear bomb over English football. I repeat again, Sky effectively own English football.
Thirdly, and finally, would the clubs have some sort of plans in place in the case such a large source of income is lost, which is reliant on the success of one business? Wouldn't you be able to get rid of players with a clause in their contracts for situtions like this, which no agent has ever worried about? Wouldn't you have a policy at Lloyd's in case you lost such a massive chunk of money overnight to at least provide you with half the money you might otherwise get?

So, it is a very nice bit of writing, but it is a bit apocalyptic.
When the ITV deal for the Football League collapsed, there was no such back up. When the Setanta deal collapsed concerning the SPL there was no such back up. What makes you think this would be any different? Greed has triumphed at present.

As for the clubs, I would be shocked if such a deal was in place with the majority of them.

Tbh, I think the best case scenario for English football at present is a slow contraction of the Sky money. If Sky went belly up, it would be lifeboats on the Titanic time.
 
Seems like a bit of an Arsenal-wank following today's awful display hahaha. Spurs would probably do a lot better than most other teams in terms of secure finances.

An interesting possibility if this happened would be a Chinese/similar bailout. Considering the money that billionaires there are willing to pump into football clubs to sign past-it superstars, I could see some businessmen taking over Premier League clubs in a sugar-daddy style to tide things over for a few years.

More likely than the apocalyptic scenario of this thread is a lot of teams in administration, and then in a few years time the League is more-or-less back to normal, except with much lower wages all round, maybe a really strict form of FFP to safeguard things
 
Three years ago, who would have thought the Premier League would see a five-way fight between Arsenal, Newcastle, Norwich City, Swansea and Huddersfield?
Actually, Swansea and Huddersfield are two of the clubs most dependent on television income. On the evidence of this afternoon's game, I can't see Arsenal winning anything even if every other club has to put out an Under 11 side.
A two-way fight between Newcastle and Norwich City? Now that's an idea I can get behind. Hell, even a five-way fight sounds good. :)


The current Sky TV deal is worth £4.2 Billion over three years. Even if twenty million people paid a tenner a month through a EPL TV, it would generate £240 million. This is just over 14% of what they were getting. If Sky went under, there is no way to cover the void created, and I don't see how BT could fill the gap. Sky effectively own English football.
Err... sorry? Unless I'm getting the wrong end of the stick wouldn't twenty million people paying £10 a month for nine months end up being more than £4.2 billion over three years?
 
A two-way fight between Newcastle and Norwich City? Now that's an idea I can get behind. Hell, even a five-way fight sounds good. :)



Err... sorry? Unless I'm getting the wrong end of the stick wouldn't twenty million people paying £10 a month for nine months end up being more than £4.2 billion over three years?
£7.2bn to be precise. I think Fletch lost a zero (so did I on the first read through).
 
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