Would that survive Ataturk?Well, if the Turks, Azeris, Georgians and finally Soviets gang up on them as in OTL, Armenia might end up more or less the same size. But I think they'd also have a chance for something along these lines:
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Would that survive Ataturk?
With those borders, Armenia would probably have 5 - 6 million people, depending on how its demographics look. Unless there's a mass migration of Armenians in Turkey to Armenia, Turkey would have a large Armenian minority in that scenario, and it would probably be a major contentious issue between Armenia and Turkey. I could see the status of Turkey's Armenian minority as a world conflict point.Well, if the Turks, Azeris, Georgians and finally Soviets gang up on them as in OTL, Armenia might end up more or less the same size. But I think they'd also have a chance for something along these lines:
That's nearly what happened in both Armenia and Turkey, whose populations 5-6 fold from 1920 to now. Without the Armenian genocide or later Soviet oppression, there could be more than 10 million Armenians.if all young and middle-aged adults paired off and had five children, pretty big.
But for a variety of reasons that usually doesn't happen.
It's not just Ataturk that's a problem. The USSR, the Georgians and the Azeris were all enemies of the short lived Armenian republic. And note: this Amrenia contain only territory from the collapsing Russian Empire (none of the Wilsonian claims of the collapsing Ottoman Empire is included), but if Anatolian Armenians migrate there, they'd be able to hold off the Turks, as long as the USSR don't come at them too.Would that survive Ataturk?
It's not just Ataturk that's a problem. The USSR, the Georgians and the Azeris were all enemies of the short lived Armenian republic. And note: this Amrenia contain only territory from the collapsing Russian Empire (none of the Wilsonian claims of the collapsing Ottoman Empire is included), but if Anatolian Armenians migrate there, they'd be able to hold off the Turks, as long as the USSR don't come at them too.
I'd still say an independent Armenia might have been possible, but that went out the window I'd say as early as spring 1920 when the Red Army invaded Azerbaijan. It was clear to anyone at that point that the USSR would incorporate the Caucasus, and for Turkey that meant they had to act against Armenia soon if they wanted the 1878 border back, otherwise the USSR would just annex all of Armenia.At least some Armenians welcomed the incorporation into the Soviet Union, as a way to get protection in a very hostile neighbourhood.
Much depends on what, exactly, happens to northeastern Anatolia and its populations. If there is no full-scale genocide, is there something like ethnic cleansing with populations "merely" being displaced? Who gets displaced? A scenario where Russian forces make greater headway into the region and then preside over expulsions of Turks might be the least bad one from the Armenian perspective.