Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

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Garrison

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Seriously?

Ditto

The point of having a staff is that information is co-ordinated, especially critical stuff.


Unsurprising, given the thread's title.
Ritchie and the Auk now seem to have been reduced from bad commanders to a slapstick comedy duo.
 
There are limits to how much realism we expect from timelines. I was just reading "The Sun, The Stars, and the Sickle" after having missed it when it was initially posted. The politics of Japan were quite dubious, and the author's desire to write about extremely aggressive naval building programs meant they extremely implausibly continued (after probably being excessive to begin with) during a war almost entirely on land which would surely have shifted the priorities of the participants in any realistic take. Nobody complained (and I'm glad they didn't; it was a fun timeline, and I'm sorry it has been abandoned). But while lots of people like more big shiny battleships, even more people very strongly don't like wehraboos (which is fine) and are having their buttons pushed by this scenario (even though the author doesn't seem to be a wehraboo, the scenario is just too close for people's hyper-sensitive triggers). I continue to wish they would stop pretending that they're just following the usual standards around here (they clearly aren't), and that they'd stop being so tediously repetitive in their complaints!
 

Garrison

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There are limits to how much realism we expect from timelines. I was just reading "The Sun, The Stars, and the Sickle" after having missed it when it was initially posted. The politics of Japan were quite dubious, and the author's desire to write about extremely aggressive naval building programs meant they extremely implausibly continued (after probably being excessive to begin with) during a war almost entirely on land which would surely have shifted the priorities of the participants in any realistic take. Nobody complained (and I'm glad they didn't; it was a fun timeline, and I'm sorry it has been abandoned). But while lots of people like more big shiny battleships, even more people very strongly don't like wehraboos (which is fine) and are having their buttons pushed by this scenario (even though the author doesn't seem to be a wehraboo, the scenario is just too close for people's hyper-sensitive triggers). I continue to wish they would stop pretending that they're just following the usual standards around here (they clearly aren't), and that they'd stop being so tediously repetitive in their complaints!
Perhaps you missed post #400:
 
For the Afrika Korps fighting in the North African desert, however, captured tanks were put to frontline use as often as possible. German forces often had difficulties receiving adequate resupply. Replacement tanks had to be shipped across the Mediterranean, something the Royal Navy and Air Force tried hard to prevent. Also, the fighting in Russia often took priority over the fighting in the desert, leading to shortages of all kinds for the Afrika Korps, including tanks. Captured British tanks were used to fill the gaps. While British tanks are often viewed as inferior to their German counterparts, it should be noted that in the early period of the war the qualitative differences were usually not so dramatic. One must also consider that when faced with the need, even a “bad” tank is much better than no tank at all.

Both the 15th and 21st Panzer Divisions of the Afrika Korps formed provisional units of captured English armor in 1941. The size of these units varied widely from time to time, since new vehicles were acquired and those in use broke down, were cannibalized for parts, or were lost in combat. By February 1942, a consolidated captured tank unit was created for the Afrika Korps as a whole. It remained in service until the end of the fighting in Africa, since newly captured vehicles were funneled to it as others were lost. A maximum of 18 tanks comprised the unit, though numbers constantly fluctuated. Various models of British tanks served in these units, including Matildas, Valentines, and Crusaders. Only a very few examples of American tanks in British service were taken.


The Grant was a new tank to them, but they were familiar with the rest of the British tank force. with more tank captures then in the OTL it would be plausible for 15th, and 21st Panzer Divisions to each form a company of captured tanks. I believe a German panzer company had 22 tanks. Having a hundred would be pushing the limits. The Grant/Lee's are sort of odd machines, that might be used more as self propelled guns. Looking through the gunsights is pretty self explanatory to a gunner trained on another tank, so are the jobs of loader, driver, or machine gunner. Your not going to have a well trained crew, but they'd have the basics down pretty quickly. Tank commanders and crew manly have to get used to the ergonomics to start using the tank, with minimal efficiency.
For the last time the issue is not that the dak used captured tanks, the issue is that not once in the intier war did the axis use captured tanks in the same battle they were captured in. Seriously if this was gust pushed back until the dak attack agenst egypt there wouldn't be a issue.
 
I have been very careful to stay away from this thread except to try to keep things civil.

That said, at some point the handwave gets too vigorous to simply let slide. Post 1900 threads have to be at least somewhat plausible.

This thread has, or soon will, Jumped the Shark into pure implausibility.

The OP can either

A) Pull things back into some realm of actually possible without miles of handwave and nearly unlimited magical thinking. This may make it difficult for the OP to complete this work as envisioned. It is however necessary if this thread is to continue in Post-1900.

OR

B) Have the thread moved to Writer's Forum where massive handwave and magical thinking is not a problem and the OP will be able to pursue their work as envisioned.

What can't happen is the current trajectory of the thread. It is unreasonable to expect members to not disagree with unlimited ahistorical handwave and magical thinking in a Forum that is not meant for that sort of narrative.

NOTE: This DOES NOT mean that people can start taking pot shots at the author or at each other. It would be... unfortunate, if anyone misunderstood this.
I don't know, but have the standards for Post-1900 TL's risen in the last ten years? While I liked the Anglo-American Nazi War TL from 12 years ago, it has its fair share of errors and implausibilities, some of which are at least as egregious as those in this TL. For example, OKW's planning staff having no knowledge of Einsatzgruppen detachments, the Reich's ability to supply the Ostheer in 1941 with winter uniforms and weapons despite not having the logistical means to do both, and Stalin throwing a hissy fit and executing every general officer and commissar on the Southwest Front despite the fact that even with the greater disasters of Operation Barbarossa Stalin did not purge his entire officer corps (notably, Rokossovsky and Zhukov were not purged in 1941 historically, despite suffering defeats themselves such as at Brody). No offense intended, of course.
 
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I am just going to post the timeline going forward as opposed to responding to comments, if something interesting is posted I will PM the person; if I respond to

GHQ asks for American troops or GHQ orders intel inquiry into leaks; which are copy and paste historical timeline (and literally things that BENEFITTED THE BRITISH) as "slapstick comedy" I'll end up getting discouraged and not finish the project

Those historical inquiries lead to them identifying and sending a successful search and destroy mission against Seebohme listening posts and finding out that Colonel Fellers was compromised

deployment of american troops to egypt was discussed with colonel fellers, between the joint chiefs and CIGS, and between Roosevelt and Churchill; their decisions around those requests and thoughts are very clearly discussed in Churchills memoires
 
OTL the box was attacked over several days by 2 German and 1 Italian division. IIRC ITTL it has been invested but not attacked by 2 Italian divisions but the result is the same.

The perimeter of the box is say 16 miles; the Italians will have a longer perimeter as they are not closely investing it; they will also have to maintain an outer perimeter to prevent any relief forces breaking through - the 2 regiment Italian divisions will be stretched very thinly. Also, if they're not attacking then 150 brigade will not be shooting off its ammunition.
Ok that is a another rather big issue, care to explain @cardcarrier ? Because seriously this is a well made tl it dose not need this sort of nonsense to allow romal to take Alexandria and force briten out of eygipt ( for a sort time I doubt he could hold it for long but that would still massively effect the wider war)
 
Ok that is a another rather big issue, care to explain @cardcarrier ? Because seriously this is a well made tl it dose not need this sort of nonsense to allow romal to take Alexandria and force briten out of eygipt ( for a sort time I doubt he could hold it for long but that would still massively effect the wider war)
It's not an issue

The 150th historically shot off most of it's ammunition engaging Rommel's supply lines to their south; that happens here but less effectively

They are encircled several days earlier than the historical campaign, due to the collapse of Bir Hakeim, so their supply situation is worse, sooner

They participate in a breakout attack (with considerable losses) instead of sitting supine, so they are burdened with more wounded as opposed to just starving

The desert airforce is less effective in this timeline than historical; and the axis airforce instead of having to launch a thousand sorties on Bir Hakeim is instead hitting 150th hard and the relief formations hard

Armor for their possible relief has been more comprehensively defeated or driven further away than historical; so their perceived ability to hold out is greatly reduced

In that context the box falls without having to be cracked by German tanks
 
I feel like this spoiler has to be deployed 1 more time

The British win the war....

The British win the war


They have a very bad outcome in my timeline at Gazala, but they are allied to the Soviet Union and the United States, they have 0 chance of losing the war 0.0

The British had a lot of bad historical outcomes in 1942, channel dash Gazala singapore etc etc etc; they won the war

stop stressing :)

edited additional spoiler

this timeline isn't even going to be a superior outcome for Germany, give it a little space
 
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They are encircled several days earlier than the historical campaign, due to the collapse of Bir Hakeim, so their supply situation is worse, sooner
Supply should not be an issue - boxes were provisioned for 3 weeks.

Even short of artillery ammunition, it seems unlikely that they would surrender; the whole concept of the defensive box is that they would be cut off for extended periods.
 
GHQ orders intel inquiry into leaks; which are copy and paste historical timeline
You posted it as "Ritchie announces..." which implies 8th Army HQ. Leak inquiries in Egypt are one thing; interviewing staff at an Army HQ as potential spies in the middle of a battle is another thing.
 
Supply should not be an issue - boxes were provisioned for 3 weeks.

Even short of artillery ammunition, it seems unlikely that they would surrender; the whole concept of the defensive box is that they would be cut off for extended periods.
the box was defeated historically 72 hours after it was encircled; without the axis being able to pancake it with their airforce or having any ability supply around it to the south... and they only faced one real assault which was on the 31st; and the box collapsed... because they had shot off most of their ammo already and had no hope of relief

the sidi muftah box was a death trap


150th survived an extra day in my timeline due to alternate maneuvers; but their outcome here is basically the same as their original timeline;
 

Garrison

Donor
I feel like this spoiler has to be deployed 1 more time

The British win the war....

The British win the war


They have a very bad outcome in my timeline at Gazala, but they are allied to the Soviet Union and the United States, they have 0 chance of losing the war 0.0

The British had a lot of bad historical outcomes in 1942, channel dash Gazala singapore etc etc etc; they won the war

stop stressing :)

edited additional spoiler

this timeline isn't even going to be a superior outcome for Germany, give it a little space
Which doesn't make the your TL one iota more or less plausible. To go back to one of the more obvious examples you could have simply had the Panzer division reinforced with a grab bag of British tanks that were used historically by DAK, Matilda's Valentine's, Crusaders, maybe leavened with a couple of fortuitous Grant's and had it take a couple of weeks for them to be deployed, but of course those other tanks are either slow or bad, or both, so you give them a company of Grant's and your plot doesn't allow two weeks for even basic familiarization so they hit the road in 4 days regardless. You could have acknowledged such issues and decided as many other before have done to take critique onboard and refine your scenario, but you've chosen to see them as nothing but attacks. Now I am going to put my hand up and admit I let my emotions get the better of me earlier in the thread but when others have presented factual information its largely been dismissed. I should also point out that myself and others who have criticized the plausibility of this TL have been equally critical of the plausibility of the idea of a 1943 D-Day. I've written novels and that's involved having to process a fair amount of critique and occasionally abandoning what seemed like great ideas when it was clear they just didn't hold together. For a TL here in Post-1900 I would say its probably an order of magnitude harder and the truly successful ones are few and far between. At the same time there are some excellent TL's in Writers and indeed ASB, written by people who clearly know a great deal about their subject but whose premise doesn't align with the rules of Post-1900.
 
the box was defeated historically 72 hours after it was encircled; without the axis being able to pancake it with their airforce or having any ability supply around it to the south... and they only faced one real assault which was on the 31st; and the box collapsed...
Or
Early on 30 May elements of the Afrika Korps attempted to break through the brigade's position but drew off after taking losses. Next day the Italian Trieste Division and German 90th Light Division attacked, but made little progress against a defence that they described as 'skilful and stubborn'. On 1 June Rommel reinforced the attackers with the 21st Panzer Division and more artillery, and the assault was resumed after heavy dive-bombing.
 

CalBear

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I don't know, but have the standards for Post-1900 TL's risen in the last ten years? While I liked the Anglo-American Nazi War TL from 12 years ago, it has its fair share of errors and implausibilities. For example, OKW's planning staff having no knowledge of Einsatzgruppen detachments, the Reich's ability to supply the Ostheer in 1941 with winter uniforms and weapons despite not having the logistical means to do both, and Stalin throwing a hissy fit and executing every general officer and commissar on the Southwest Front despite the fact that even with the greater disasters of Operation Barbarossa Stalin did not purge his entire officer corps (notably, Rokossovsky and Zhukov were not purged, despite suffering defeats themselves such as at Brody). No offense intended, of course.
Of course not.


Actually glad you brought AANW up. Not quite sure what the issue was regarding Einsatzgruppen, IIRC there was no real question brought up about them or OKW's knowledge of their existence. The winter clothing and Stalin's Purge were, however however brought up and discussed at some length in the thread. I was rather happy with the "solution" that I put forth regarding winter clothing, namely that the Party put on a major clothing drive to get get Reich citizens to donate all possible winter clothing (and , while unstated,probably confiscated every pair of "woolies" and overcoats they could put their greedy paws on across Occupied Europe) to make the troops comfortable while the occupied the East; it was exactly the sort of BS that the Nazis did throughout their reign (and the sort that, remarkably, worked time after time)

I have ALWAYS openly acknowledged that it is almost impossible to actually come up with a way for the Reich to defeat the USSR, the deeper you look, the more idiotic Barbarossa becomes. This being the case I chose what was the best of a set of bad options , one that I never particularly liked (and openly acknowledged as be pretty weak sauce at the timebut was at least in line with Stalin's general personality and historic willingness to lash out. In my defense the thread wasn't supposed to turn into what it did, again as I have mentioned many times, the idea was to generate a discussion regarding what would have happened in an occupied Europe, with the entire "story" ending before the war even began. The ending of AANW the T/L as originally planned was supposed to be "We begin…" that was the 100th total post in the thread (i.e. page 5), with hopeful a few pages of discussion back and forth refarding the potential impact, longer term of General Plan Ost. That being the case, Post 1900 seemed to be the place to put the thread. I certainly had no plans for AANW to turn into the monster it became, I was in the middle of a T/L that I was rather enjoying, namely Pacific War Redux, but one thing led to another and 100,000 words later, here we are.

Had I thought that AANW was going to turn into the sort of pure fiction story it became I would have posted it in Writer's Forum, I was quite active in the Forum at the time, with some fairly well received bits and pieces that were posted there. More than once during the writing of AANW I considered moving the whole kit a' kaboodle to Writer's. I didn't for the same reason that the magnificent Decades of Darkness was never moved from Pre-1900 despite being far more a novel than a T/L, it was well established there before things settled into form. There are a number of other T/L that have done the same thing over the years and have remained in place for the same reason it was well established.

So if your accusation is that I have a thread (actually there are a couple in addition to AANW) that requires a couple unlikely POD to get from Point A to Point B I heartily agree. The difference, at least from my perspective, is that they are all built on a really solid foundation for their POD, and when that foundation isn't really strong, it is completely acknowledged, was still based insofar as possible on the actual historic actions of the individual involved (Stalin), and reaches at least a reasonable level of plausibility.

Hope fully this answers your question. If you wish to go deeper I will be happy to do so via PM. Doing it here is likely to not just derail but demolish this thread.
 
or

In the afternoon [30th May] I personally reconnoitred the possibilities for an attack on Got el Ualeb [the Sidi Muftah box] and detailed units of the Afrika Korps, 90th Light Division and the Italian Trieste Division for an assault on the British positions next morning. The attack was launched on the morning of the 31st May. German-Italian units fought their way forward yard by yard against the toughest British resistance imaginable.[...] Nevertheless, by the time evening came we had penetrated a substantial distance into the British positions. On the following day the defenders were to receive their quietus. After heavy Stuka attacks, the infantry again surged forward against the British field positions.[...] Piece by piece the elaborate British defences were won until by early afternoon the whole position was ours. The last British resistance was quenched. We took in all 3,000 prisoners and destroyed or captured 101 tanks and armoured cars, as well as 124 guns of all kinds.

— Rommel[47]


the 150th brigade entry in wikipedia quotes jocelyn having the battle end on the 1st
The rommel papers quote it as substantially beaten on the 31st


we could go 2 out of 3 :)


dont get into the trap of seeing ~stopped with losses~ as meaning meaning some sort of heavy defeat

Given the Germans according to Playfair's official British history of the war; puts total AXIS losses of men; for all of Gazala (4 weeks) at only 6-7k men... about 1/3 of their losses where breaking the Bir Hakeim box and 1/3 taking Tobruk.... and if one reads the German history of breaking the Natal field artillery they certainly lost men killed there; which means... generously the most they could have lost opposite Haydon's men (separate from Haydons men destorying axis supply convoys) is a couple of hundred


Operations on the 29th and 30th are probably more aptly described as ~recon in force~ and or ~clearing closer paths in the minefields to ease the assault~ and or ~Rommel pushing supply convoys through the minefields to resolve the Africa Corps being out of fuel and low on ammunition after their sweep to the south had to be recalled due to the failure to take Bir Hakeim~

edit:
I can't spell for shit
btw none of the above is to disparage the courage of Haydon's men; Haydon himself was killed in Action just before the surrender
Sidi Muftah box was a death trap
The box gave up 3k prisoners 100+ armored vehicles and 100+ cannons to the axis
The Africa Corps war diaries and Rommel's war diary uses very ... colorful and loud language; when you lose 300 men; and your entire army is only 30k, and you never receive replacements... ever... you can see entries like ~considerable heavy losses~ which sometimes one needs to step back and take a wider view from and make their own call if that wording actually makes sense
 
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9.3
Chapter 9.3

06-01-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Cairo Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Colonel Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ

Urgent 3rd update (personal observations only):

Repeated flare ups between staff officers and commanders among the branches; leading to our frequent removal from GHQ, creating voids in our understanding of the battle
Request senior officers and or members of the government impress on GHQ to honor agreement for "full access" so we can make accurate reports to chain of command
We concur with Ritchie that there is some sort of operational security problem in the theater; we have made this observation and stand by it since February
We presume there to be local spies in Alexandria, Cairo and Suez
Privately GHQ staff officers have conducted interviews with evacuated/wounded troops; they advise many secret documents and maps likely captured by Rommel; which may explain his clever movements around the minefields of the Gazala line, and frequent ambushes of headquarters/rear area units
8th army coordination of supporting arms may be poorer than even previously evaluated, GHQ staff officers advise units are attacking unsuppressed axis emplacements and that artillery and armor use at Knightsbridge was poor
Serious conflicts between Smith and Ritchie, causing tactical and strategic errors
Rumors persist in GHQ that every officer will be relieved by London
Rumors in GHQ that Ritchie will be relieved and replaced by Smith, or that Auchinlek will take direct command of 8th army
Situation at front so grave that even immediate resolution of command impasses may not save the army
Private conversations with Royal Navy staff officers concerning the fate of Malta, in the event of Alexandria falling or being evacuated are very troubling; their staff is discussing cancelation or postponement of Operation Vigorous/Julius
Private conversations with Royal Navy and Air Force give concerning responses about the ability to evacuate troops from Malta if it cannot be safely supplied
Private conversations with GHQ staff officers give concerning responses about the ability of Malta to withstand an invasion if it is not supplied with food and gasoline
Private conversations with GHQ staff officers give concerning responses about the ability to ably battle the DAK in the event Malta falls, and they have more secure supply lines to the main Libyan ports
Atmosphere in GHQ is troubling and can be seen spilling in small but growing amounts into Cairo
Heated exchanges between Ritchie and Smith occurred several times today, and conflict brewed over into staffs, but most especially over failure of attacks out of Knightsbridge, and over identification of either new German units or supernumeraries at Belhamed
Ritchie blames Smith for Knightsbridge attack being "hasty"
Our staff cannot currently obtain reliable status update of the troops at Knightsbridge, the disclosures on their fuel while troubling do not tell how many fighting men they have left, General Smith and our laison officer refuse to comment on this question and say it is still being evaluated in the face of disrupted communications
General Smith doesn't regard the troops at Knights bridge as surrounded, our staff review of GHQ position maps shows axis forces on all sides; but it is not clear if that is currently a coincidental battle placement due to other events or if Rommel intends to invest Knightsbridge now that he has broken through in the center
Commander at Knights Bridge requests execute operation free born, whilst our staff is evaluating the prospects of freeborn on the whole, the Indians at Knights bridge have Italian armor to their south and west and German armor to their north and east; we regard their ability to evacuate as the most hazardous of the 8th army (except for the Tobruk garrison whom we identify are already in a close battle or state of siege)
GHQ staff officers privately advise that some surviving elements of the Guards formations, driven into the Tobruk perimeter by German armor; when pressed about remaining strength of these forces we are only told "limited"
GHQ staff officers even privately will not put timetable even best case on ability of 50th division and 1st south african to with stand a siege or close envelopment, our staff will perform it's own evaluation after the recon photos are assessed tomorrow
GHQ staff officers privately hope that Rommel will attack the remaining Northumbrians and the South Africans, instead of investing the forces at Knightsbridge; they advise formations in the north have good artillery and anti tank support; and the units are largely full strength; some defeated armored units being reconstituted in their sector; no concrete answers from Smith concerning their number of running tanks or fuel availability
No answers from Smith or any GHQ officer as to what equipment would be left behind when and if freeborn is launched; only private answer received is "dunkirk" which my staff takes to mean that large amounts of army equipment would be intended to be abandoned
I asked our laison officer if the 8th army could reasonably fight any battles in Egypt if the army equipment is "dunkirk" in the Libyan desert, he excused himself from the room; our staff will try to prepare own estimate of defensive options in Egypt under the possibility of catastrophic defeat of the 8th army
General Smith is impressing a very difficult atmosphere on the GHQ, Ritchie tries to exclude him from discussions with Auchinlek
Privately Royal Navy and Desert Air Force officers lobby their superiors to apply pressure for the relief of Ritchie and Smith
Privately GHQ officers lobby Auchinlek to relieve Ritchie and Smith
I tried asking General Smith and South African staff officers if operation freeborn could include the 1st south african and the Northumbrians trying to recover the Tobruk garrison during their proposed evacuation, this produced several different answers; and escalated into confrontation between Smith and South Africans, with Smith saying that the 2nd South Africans had their own evacuation plan to execute for freeborn.
Per previous report South African staff officers have already privately advised their second division doesn't have enough vehicles for freeborn, regardless of their combat situation; this is likely the source of their conflict with General Smith's statement
Privately South African staff officers appealing to their government to apply pressure to London for the relief of Smith and Ritchie... and Auchinlek
Our best objective view, is that the South Africans in the Tobruk pocket are receiving conflicting or possibly no instructions at all; the fortress by all accounts so far has been ill prepared for a siege and the pressure applied from London to hold the fortress poorly matches the field conditions or the quality of the troops in the fortress
Auchinlek requests ICGS officers come to Egypt to see situation first hand; command impasse is very troubling
GHQ private disclosure of deserter/morale problems is concerning, no staff officer will answer questions on this currently
Auchinlek, Smith and Ritchie all shaken by fall of Sidi Muftah box
Auchinlek questions why box would fall so quickly, this escalates among the staff; morale issue is brought up; we are removed from the room
Will try to use our interviews at the frontier to make our own staff analysis of morale/discipline/desertion problems

End transmission
 
Supply should not be an issue - boxes were provisioned for 3 weeks.

Even short of artillery ammunition, it seems unlikely that they would surrender; the whole concept of the defensive box is that they would be cut off for extended periods.
Did any box hold out for 3 weeks? Did the brigade box strategy workout?
 
Yeah, the OP has messed up his research a bit; overestimated how long it takes to make a formed unit out of captured tanks and put more than just a thumb on the scales. But it's his first TL, so that deserves some sack. And. we've had much worse on this forum plenty of times before: Gudestein's string of poorly thought out Axis-wank TLs; Hairog's "autistic soviet super-genius solves all problems" WW3 in 1946 TL; Glenn239 and Robdab's (concieved in an absinthe induced haze one presumes...) Operation Tinkerbell Hawaii invasion stuff or AdmiralBloonbeard's recent "Lolz! I r cut-price edgelord! Axis-wank for teh atrocity porn!".

Let's excuse the implausibility and loaded dice for now and see if he takes it anywhere interesting.

That said, if two month's time this TL has degenerated into mindless Axis-wank number 598772; turned into a Brits-screw just so the Americans can pull the poms' balls out of the fire ("coz Merica FUCK YEAH!") or petered out into "Well, I guess if you assume Rommel wins, then Rommel wins... Now what?", then it'll be time for flak...
 
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