Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

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The Campaign in North Africa was nicknamed the Gazala Gallops by the British troops with good reason.
Cairo GHQ on the eve of Alamein must have been a sight to behold with the embassy and offices burning papers, the fleet withdrawing, and preparing demolitions for the Alexandria dockyard, the yards themselves starting to choke with people looking for passage out of Egypt

Auchinlek, for all of his many faults in that campaign up to that very second did well to keep his nerve, especially after the debacle at Mersa Matruh
 
chapter 7
Chapter 7

05-30-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Cairo Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Colonel Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ

Transmission to Washington:

Briefings from 8th army and GHQ off schedule due to chaotic combat situation in Libya
String of German columns reported by desert air force between El Adem and points south
Desert airforce has lost control of sky above Gazala and Tobruk
Attacks by British and Scots guards Brigades are repulsed, details and communications are extremely limited, as axis columns have captured or bombed many radio relay stations in the desert. 8th army communication functionality rated at best 35 percent
32nd armored brigade delayed by air attacks and internal army redistribution of fuel, still has not started their assault on El Adem, Ritchie discusses canceling their attack or having them and other elements to the north withdraw from Axis armor
Axis tank divisions east of Bir El Harmat driving east into rear of Guards brigades instead of north against Knights Bridge defensive boxes per desert airforce (and counter to previous 8th army assessment). 8th army underestimated regrouping needed and movement potential of these forces
Recon elements of the above already in contact with guards brigades; guards brigades in grave danger of encirclement
Guards brigades under heavy air attacks
Guards brigades under significant artillery bombardment
Reports of Italian infantry and motorized formations being on all sides of the Sidi Muftah box
Sidi Muftah box under air attack and artillery bombardment, assault likely imminent
Ritchie requests withdrawal of Gazala box to relieve Sidi Muftah box, GHQ and London denies request
Ritchie requests withdrawal of Tobruk garrison to retake Belhamed, London denies request
Ritchie is advised by London that Tobruk is not permitted to be abandoned, and it is not permitted to be unmasked by withdrawing from Gazala
Axis appear to be utilizing fields at Gambut as forward air force base, only limited bombing of Tobruk so far; Ritchie discloses axis may have captured HEAVY artillery at Belhamed, with corresponding ammunition supplies which could possibly be used against Tobruk
8th army staff officers disclose loss of large quantities of fuel and other desert supplies to Rommel at Belhamed
GHQ preparing transfer orders for for remaining combat forces in deep theater areas and base formations in Egypt
Receiving conflicting and presumed inaccurate counts of remaining Axis and British tanks
German armored cars patrolling outskirts of Tobruk
British/Indian Brigades at the Knights Bridge box are deemed insufficient by GHQ to relieve Sidi Muftah encirclement without armored support; Ritchie unsure if any battle with those formations can be won outside of their defensive boxes. Ritchie issues no orders to them or remaining forces along the coastal road the last 2 days
Ritchie furious with London, Ritchie and staff officers expect to reorganize command structure of 8th army to account for large number of senior officers captured as soon as crisis passes
Royal Navy Contacts privately confide that they believe Rommel will invade Egypt
Royal Navy again advises impossible to resupply Tobruk, Ritchie lacks authority to force matter with their branch
South African coordinating staff officers in Cairo are demanding the army withdraw, they fear mortal threat to their army corps along the coastal road
Mixed views permeate GHQ some are more optimistic; but some are agitating to withdraw back to Egyptian frontier and build defensive works in Egypt

Personal observations: 8th army has lost most strategic window into the battle. Fate of 22nd armored brigade still being evaluated, but private talks with officers say the formation was routed and captured. Using our commands best judgment, and taking average of reports Rommel likely has tank superiority tonight, in Libya, at least until depot tanks can be brought up from Egypt. Eastward wheel of DAK from Bir El Harmat has caught Ritchie's troops very badly exposed and unprepared. Reporting from front is chaotic, but Auchinleks updated field map shows a cauldron forming around those formations. Ritchie lack of authority on the forces in the North is compounding strategic command failures; Guards and armored brigades being committed piecemeal, and overwhelmed by locally superior axis forces; reports from more forthcoming private talks with staff officers comment that artillery coordination is falling apart in the south and many assaults are going against completely unsuppressed positions

Desert airforce projects confidence that Axis pilots will be more tired starting tomorrow and that they have moved up some fighter aircraft to Tobruk to try and contest more effectively over the battlefield. Privately staff officers say there is no ammunition or bombs for the planes and that the army should withdraw into better air cover from Egypt; they advise the army cannot be protected

Our staff continues to regard 8th army use of combined arms and coordination as poor, tactical field positioning of the divisions for this battle has been poor and cast away their superiority in tanks. There are rumors that every officer in Cairo will be relieved. There are rumors situation causes political problems for London command upcoming trip to Washington. Our staff concurs with evaluation of 2nd South African division and general poor state of affairs at Tobruk, we rated it's ability to withstand a 4 week siege yesterday as 1/2; after General Ritchie disclosures today we rate this as 1/5

In ability to correctly evaluate axis tank strength, and movement options causing significant tactical errors. It's been privately disclosed to our staff that the DAK controls all of the southern battlefields and is salvaging all of the repairable tanks belonging to both parties for their use. Auchinlek's chief of staff refuses to take repaired tanks at any ratio, even conservative ones into account when evaluating Rommel's remaining strength. The man is not wise for his position as we have previously commented

With DAK driving east we regard threat to Guards brigades as mortal; we regard threat to center of Gazala line as hopeless in light of Ritchie disclosure about lack of offensive capabilities in his middle areas. We regard threat to large garrison divisions in the north as somewhat reduced from yesterday, as axis tanks are driving east for now instead of north; this provided that London grants Ritchie freedom to withdraw the divisions. 8th army withdrawal to Egypt is all but certain in our opinion; we believe Auchinlek uncertain about undermining moral by starting to build defensive lines in Egypt; he is receiving mixed advice on this subject

End Transmission

Will add follow up authors thoughts and perspective in separate post
 
Was there an OTL US evaluation of Auchinlek’s chief of staff as incompetent?
Yes Major Oswald, who worked for Fellers filed dispatches labeling Major General Dorman-Smith a lunatic. Alan Brooke in his polite way of speaking labeled him as an incompetent, and viewed Auchinlek's continued seeking of advice from Smith as a life threatening issue for the 8th army and it was a core reason why he ultimately was able to sack Auchinlek; Montgomery referred to him as a menace; Smith and Churchill had a blazing argument in 1943 during a DDay preperation exercise, which surprises me in that it didn't end up with Smith being sent to count sheep the in the Falklands

Smith, post war sued Brook, Churchill, Montgomery and Alexander for trashing him in their memoirs

FDR and the joint chiefs agreed with Fellers observations of the 8th army, which even if they where too kind to their British allies to bring up to their face, they gave Fellers a medal and promotion for his candid and forthright work in Africa

Edit: corrected spelling and added additional items
 
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7.1
Chapter 7.1

05-30-42 23:59 Panzer Army Africa Command Post Bir El Harmat Libya Commander GeneralOberst Erwin Rommel, briefing presented by Oberst Seigfried Westphal (Chief of DAK operations) and Hauptman Albert Seebohme Commander 621st Radio interception company, also receiving briefings, Field Marshal "Smiling" Albert Kesselring commander OB Sud

It had been a busy day for General Rommel, on his staff's unanimous pleading, he had slept 7 hours the previous night and woken just before dawn greatly refreshed and clear headed. 21st panzer was asked to put in a very hard day, their regrouping cancelled overnight and the scavenging of the battlefield left to the Ariete tank division; they where ordered to drive east at day break

Rommel personally lead a supply convoy through swept paths in the mine field along the Trigh el Abd strip road into 21st panzer's encampment; he carried with him briefcases full of medals, but also crates full of ammunition, and a battalion of Ariete escorted corps artillery and AAA to the 21st panzer on Rommel's tail. Concurrent with this; companies of the 15th panzer's infantry regiment, in appropriated British trucks, with their British markings still on them, to confuse possible desert air force low flying aircraft, had driven south and then west, packed to the brim with fuel cannisters, food and water; appropriated from El Adem

Rommel's plan for the day, code named among his staff sudkanal (south canal), was intended to take advantage of his intelligence trump cards, namely that Hauptman Seebohme's operators had identified the guard's brigades, and their relative spacing en route to El Adem, and he had received a full read out of Bonner Fellers updates the previous 24 hours, which included him unintentionally leaking to Rommel that the 8th army expected 21st Panzer and Ariete to continue their drive north to try and perform a full encirclement of the Gazala line

Instead 21st panzer would be pushed, hard, weakened by detachments of crews of lost vehicles; and the need to facilitate captured equipment to the rear. The British again would have the sun in their eyes the entire day, as their attack to the east against 15th panzer evolved just before lunch, and they would be attacked from the rear by the 21st panzer late in the day with the sun at their back.

Although 21st panzer was tired and down 35 percent strength, 15th panzer had largely rested the last 48 hours, and fattened on the supply dumps. Two battalions of the 90th light had arrived early in the day to stiffen their infantry strength. 90th light had now received 2380 infantry replacements from the Crete garrison and was fairly close to full strength on paper and would begin more serious probing of the Tobruk perimeter soon, but today was recon in force

15th panzer was augmented by good numbers of captured British field and AAA guns; and they and their comrades in the 21st enjoyed strong air support arranged by Marshal Kesselring in conjunction with ground observers and Seebohme/Feller report suggested targets. Having flown 8 missions a day the previous 4 days, Kesselring however did rotate a few crews to have an earlier end to their day.

The guards brigades had arrived piece meal, the Scots first, this section of the desert having very little in the way of land marks or any terrain features at all; and with much of their own communications and intelligence network, much of their first clue that they had stumbled upon the 15th Panzer's defensive perimeter of El Adem, was engagement by British and German artillery and AAA (barrels depressed for horizontal fire) and visited by shrieking stukas, and diving ME-109s. The Scots planned suppressive artillery barrage was late and fell in many empty places when it did come, when the main body of the 201st arrived to try and stiffen the drive, the 15th panzer counter attacked, leap frogging their 50mm anti guns, covered by their 88mm cannons, mechanized infantry and tanks advanced under the cover of the artillery and inflicted considerable losses on the guards; and when the sun shifted into the western sky 21st panzers tanks and artillery where upon the guards from behind, with coordinates being radioed by 15th panzer and fixed by one of captain Seebohme's platoons

It wasn't a turkey shoot, the guard, where excellent infantry, but it was a DAK over run because of their concentration of nearly 220 tanks on the formation caught in the open. The guards scattered and fled north, with mechanized infantry in hot pursuit, multiple battalion commanders where killed or captured. The charge of the guards brigade would become a lingering story of the desert warfare and one of the cardinal criticisms against Ritchie; a culmination of all the worst habits of the 8th army and his command of not sending units with the proper support and frittering away material and manpower superiority to be impaled on German cannons

The strategic ball was in Rommel's court, in his mind it always was; the defeat of all of Ritchie's reserves in the south cemented his hold on British lines of communication, he was simply amazed that the enormous garrisons at Tobruk and Gazala wouldn't be called to dislodge his slender forces off their supply nodes, especially Kleeman's penetration at Belhamed which only ever was a scratch division, there where reports of reserves being rushed to the frontier to eventually be pressed against Kleeman, but this was still some time in the future

Seebohme and Westphal showed Rommel several captured maps and provided him with a composite of best known positions of the British and Panzer Army Africa, he essentially had two choices, rotate the 21st panzer to El Adem to rest for a day and allow 15th panzer and Ariete to drive on Knights Bridge box directly behind the Gazala mine fields, in a close envelopment

He stared at the map, and when presented with Westphal's more bold option, it had already been decided in his mind as the best course of action; 21st panzer would have to bear the burden be refueled tonight at El Adem, and drive with their sister division as soon as able, directly north along the Trigh Bir Hakeim road on Arcoma, west of Tobruk. His captured maps showed only scattered and light forces between himself and Arcoma, Kleeman's detached forces would have to maintain security and communications at El Adem. Possession of Arcoma and the road network at the coast there would allow the Panzer Army Africa to further dominate the supply lines to the troops at Gazala, and it would allow him to completely invest the Garrison at Tobruk. Rommel felt that if he held Arcoma and was able to keep his pressure coming from the south, that line of retreat options from the balance of the troops manning the Gazala line would become very limited

Whats more reports from the broken American codes showed the British where desperately concerned about their trapped Brigade at Sidi Muftah which had been encircled by Trieste and Trento. Rommel decided that he would use Sidi Muftah as a fire sack to draw in what British armor remained in the north; Trieste and Trento would be ordered to keep a belt buckle grip on the British, but not to perform a true assault, just recons in force and demonstrations, they where to otherwise dig in and prepare for a defensive battle; Ariete which had largely cleaned up the battlefield near Bir El Harmat would be ordered to move north west tonight and encamp on allagh ridge; and take defensive positions to screen the Ariete from British forces at Knightsbridge

Kesselring advised that many fighter and bomber pilots where falling asleep on their runway alerts and that missions had to be curtailed for at 12 hours to restore crews composure. Rommel having benefitted from some sleep himself agreed with his superior and would schedule his positions and movements accordingly. Rommel implored field Marshal Kesselring to keep up the air lift of troops, 21st panzer was down 45 percent strength and 15th was down 33 percent; Ariete was down 25 percent but would re-evaluate at dawn, they where making some progress repairing their equipment and may be closer to full strength. Kesselring advised that he had overflown the battlefield several times during the day and understood that Rommel had found the Schwerpunkt, and that OB Sud was calling on other commands in Germany, France, Norway and the Balkans to find aircraft and good troops to be lifted to Africa

The commander of OB Sud announced that he had conferred with Field Marshal Bastico and Ugo Cavallero, and that some assets ear marked for opteration Herkules would be made available as reinforcements in Libya; Kesselring's chief of staff was going to fly back to Berlin tomorrow to have a 1:1 meeting with Rudolf Schmundt Hitler's Army Personel adjudent, about requesting tank crewman who could be flown to Africa as replacements for the Panzer Army's lost crews. Rommel thanked Kesselring for his support and announced he would be riding with the 21st as soon as they could move out, they where tired, but he knew from experience that having the general traveling with them got tired asses and elbows moving

will make another post with authors thoughts and commentary
 
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I didn’t argue about his tactical capabilities. But generals should have a grasp and understanding of strategy and logistics. Something he lacked and which in my mind made him unsuitable for higher command. Being able to take a bunker or a mountaintop has no effect on the strategic outcome of war. His command was wasteful and strategically inept. Rommel was given his command simply due to Hitlers clear favoritism of his commander of personal guard. Rommel myth was built by allies wanting to justify tactical setbacks and make a greater than life enemy for themselves.
I believe your missing that the forest is made up of trees. Rommel's ability to take bunkers, and mountaintops contributed materially to the CP victory at Caporetto, which nearly knocked Italy out of the war. Now you could argue that since Italy wasn't knocked out, that on a grand strategic level the offensive was a waste of resources, the
CP could ill afford. Most historians however would disagree, that bringing about a major crisis for the Allies, and the tactical lessons learned were well worth it. If the measure is that the CP lost the war, then any effort made was a waste.

Modern military schoolers have criticized Robert E. Lee for his costly offensive tactics, and his two strategic offensives into Maryland, and Pennsylvania as beyond the means of the CSA. Others have said the legend of Lee was underserved. That he depended on his right & left arms of Jackson, and Longstreet. They say Confederate propaganda exploited his victories over Union mediocrities to elevate him to the level of a Napoleon, Suvorov, or Marlborough. That the Union made him into a bogyman to excuse their own failings, and make Grant into a giant slayer. There may be a good deal of truth in these assessments, but still the fact is he demoralized the Union, raised the moral of the South, and forced one crisis after another on the Union Command.

Where strategic realists would stay on defense, in the hope of achieving a favorable attrition ratio, a Lee, Belisarius, or Rommel would risk doing the unexpected, and take the fight to the enemy. Doing the unexpected has always been considered a military virtue, because it can throw the enemy off balance, and disrupt his plans. The indirect approach, rather then a head on clash is almost always the preferable method. Belisarius wrote that the deeper in the enemies rear, away from his main force you can attack the better. Going after vital areas, that are lightly defended is the objective of any good commander. This was exactly what Rommel was doing in this battle, by breaking into the enemy rear, and overrunning his supply dumps, and airfields, while disrupting his CCC.

I think you would be hard pressed to find a general who would think this was a bad idea. What your suggesting is standing on the defense, and hoping for a favorable attrition ratio. Your also running the risk that the enemy doesn't take advantage of the low density of forces to frontage to slip into your rear areas, and doing to you what Rommel did to the British. Considering the amount of damage small British Commando units did, imagine what whole brigades could do. Holding the initiative means the enemy has to react to what your doing, rather then the other way round. Given a realistic chance, going on the offensive is preferable. Saying that because Rommel eventually lost means that he never should've gone on the offensive isn't a logical conclusion, because it fails to take into account the downside of the alternatives available to him.
 

David Flin

Gone Fishin'
I think you would be hard pressed to find a general who would think this was a bad idea. What your suggesting is standing on the defense, and hoping for a favorable attrition ratio.

I'm afraid that this misunderstands what defence is. One isn't sitting behind walls in the style of the beleagured fort beloved of early Western films; defence involves locating key points in the attack and striking them to disrupt the attack. George MacDonald Fraser in his memoirs as a rifleman in the Burma campaign in WW2 describes the technique perfectly.

If defenders sit and allow attackers to come to them, then all the advantages of controlling the tempo switches to the attackers. Which is precisely why defenders only do that when being commanded by incompetents or armchair generals.
 
I'm afraid that this misunderstands what defence is. One isn't sitting behind walls in the style of the beleagured fort beloved of early Western films; defence involves locating key points in the attack and striking them to disrupt the attack. George MacDonald Fraser in his memoirs as a rifleman in the Burma campaign in WW2 describes the technique perfectly.

If defenders sit and allow attackers to come to them, then all the advantages of controlling the tempo switches to the attackers. Which is precisely why defenders only do that when being commanded by incompetents or armchair generals.
A mobile defense is a perfectly logical strategy. The problem is when the factors of space, time, the density of forces, and the limits of communications make a coordinated defense impractical. In a place like North Africa the advantage was with the attacker, not the defense. The Gazalaline was a system of brigade box strong points, using massive minefields to try to fill the gaps. That the Germans rolled right through the gaps into 8th Army's rear areas showed the futility of that type of defense system. British doctrine, and experience prevented them from responding effectively. The unexpected stand of the French throw a monkey wrench into Rommel's plans, and saved 8th Army from an even greater disaster then in the OTL.

Although the Germans were far better then the British at both combined arms, and mobile tactics, allowing them to strike first would be running a greater risk then bringing the fight to them. Rommel also had to factor into his thinking that the Italians were less capable of rolling with the punches then his German troops. A collapse of an Italian sector of the front was a constant danger. It was easier, and safer to use them offensively, alongside the DAK, or preform more limited missions, then to trust them to withstand the pressure of a defensive battle, and have to race to their recue, before it was too late.

In the example of Burma the superiority of the IJA in jungle warfare, and the fact that for logistical reasons the British needed to capture a port limited their choice of objectives, and allowed the Japanese to defeat their offensives in 1943. In the Japanese U-Go Offensive of 1944 the main difficulty was the almost impassable terrain. The British had the tremendous advantage of air transport, which saved the day at the Battles of Imphal, and the Admin Box, and in support of the Chindits.
 
active defense; was codified by the British in the previous war under Sir John French (albeit on very small scale) General Von Falkenhayn and Colonel Von Lossberg codified active defense into the German system; especially after the passive defensive stands against the French in 1915; the troops and the officers, no one liked sitting and waiting to take the hit

but in North Africa, just look at the Geography of the Gulf of Sirte. If the superior maritime power holds Bengahzi, that have short station to fight the sea lanes to Tripoli, but the land power has to take the long loop up the coastal road and end up with shitty supply lines that can be flanked from the south

that goes back to the salient point, Rommel's orders where nonsense once one saw the conditions on the ground; and a map, there was no where to stand; all of the prewar Italian fortifications had been lost, and proved worthless anyway in operation compass, just the same as all of Ritchie's fortifications proved worthless once they where outflanked from the south, or in the case of the center of Ritchie's line, the Italian infantry just went in between the minefields and fortifications and split the front open

the stationary formations where the ones that got encircled and defeated, this wasn't the western front of 1917 where you had 250 divisions jam packed into 400 miles of sophisticated trench lines backed by 10000 pre registered artillery pieces; this was more classical maneuver/cavalry warfare
 

David Flin

Gone Fishin'
With all due respect, @cardcarrier , I have 23 years of experience as a Royal Marine Commando, finishing in 1982. I've seen combat of a variety of types from Bangladesh (or East Pakistan as it was at the time), Lebanon, Northern Ireland, the Falklands, and several others.

I really don't need lectures on the operational aspects of combat and how to conduct offensive and defensive operations.

The history and personalities of specific times and places are something that others generally know far better than I do, but please don't patronize me with regard to operations.

If you want to discard my views on operational matters, that is your prerogative. It could well be that the fundamentals of what certain things involve have altered circumstances, and that what is true now and what was true in the period from around Suez to the Falklands was not true in WW2.
 
With all due respect, @cardcarrier , I have 23 years of experience as a Royal Marine Commando, finishing in 1982. I've seen combat of a variety of types from Bangladesh (or East Pakistan as it was at the time), Lebanon, Northern Ireland, the Falklands, and several others.

I really don't need lectures on the operational aspects of combat and how to conduct offensive and defensive operations.

The history and personalities of specific times and places are something that others generally know far better than I do, but please don't patronize me with regard to operations.

If you want to discard my views on operational matters, that is your prerogative. It could well be that the fundamentals of what certain things involve have altered circumstances, and that what is true now and what was true in the period from around Suez to the Falklands was not true in WW2.
You must have certainly seen a great deal; and an evolving combat abilities and options

I was agreeing with your point, and using it to condemn Ritchie as an incompetent because he let Rommel come to him, and let Rommel retain all the initiative... and condemning the German high command that wanted Rommel to sit and let the British come to him

I have nothing like the field experience you would have gotten in the cold war and COIN operations. 5 years in a defense think tank; I did walk out of a Freshman college seminar on 9/11 to try and enlist, and the recruiting officer told me to go back to class; so i fall clearly into armchair, paper knowledge only
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
You must have certainly seen a great deal; and an evolving combat abilities and options

I was agreeing with your point, and using it to condemn Ritchie as an incompetent because he let Rommel come to him, and let Rommel retain all the initiative... and condemning the German high command that wanted Rommel to sit and let the British come to him

I have nothing like the field experience you would have gotten in the cold war and COIN operations. 5 years in a defense think tank; I did walk out of a Freshman college seminar on 9/11 to try and enlist, and the recruiting officer told me to go back to class; so i fall clearly into armchair, paper knowledge only
Also note Hitler's insistence of "Festung" cities & towns, which was almost always unsuccessful, whereas Manstein's concept of mobile defence was more successful (initially at least) on the Eastern Front.

Ritchie was either incompetent or working on Peter's Principle. Matters improved greatly when the Auk took direct control of 8th Army.

However would the OTL Commonwealth advance west have been slowed if Rommel had not suffered the losses he did at 1st Alamein & Alam Halfa, and instead copied the British in creating a (more than he did OTL) solid defence at a restricted point on the North African coastline?
 
Also note Hitler's insistence of "Festung" cities & towns, which was almost always unsuccessful, whereas Manstein's concept of mobile defence was more successful (initially at least) on the Eastern Front.

Ritchie was either incompetent or working on Peter's Principle. Matters improved greatly when the Auk took direct control of 8th Army.

However would the OTL Commonwealth advance west have been slowed if Rommel had not suffered the losses he did at 1st Alamein & Alam Halfa, and instead copied the British in creating a (more than he did OTL) solid defence at a restricted point on the North African coastline?
Rommel was ordered not to retreat, repeatedly and had to keep setting up improvised defensive lines at Fuka and other points west. He saw operation torch as dramatically changing the strategic balance against him and wanted to withdraw all the way to Wadi Akarkit and create a significant defensive line using the salt marshes and the atlas mountains to limit his combat front down to a space his meager numbers could handle

but the circular problem. defending that far back puts tunis in easy bombing range with fighter escorts
 
With all due respect, @cardcarrier , I have 23 years of experience as a Royal Marine Commando, finishing in 1982. I've seen combat of a variety of types from Bangladesh (or East Pakistan as it was at the time), Lebanon, Northern Ireland, the Falklands, and several others.

I really don't need lectures on the operational aspects of combat and how to conduct offensive and defensive operations.

The history and personalities of specific times and places are something that others generally know far better than I do, but please don't patronize me with regard to operations.

If you want to discard my views on operational matters, that is your prerogative. It could well be that the fundamentals of what certain things involve have altered circumstances, and that what is true now and what was true in the period from around Suez to the Falklands was not true in WW2.
Thank you for your service to your country. As a Royal Marine Commando you should appreciate more then most the advantages of holding the initiative. Commandos are trained to destroy high value targets in the enemy rear, to disrupt his operations, as part of the overall plan of campaign. Marines are an amphibious strike force specializing in attacking coastal targets. Rommel's supply lines were highly vulnerable to both. Air power, and naval interdiction were also serious threats. Your training would teach you that any local defense can be overcome though concentration of forces, and surprise. History tells us that offense is often the best defense. If you have a chance to eliminate a threat before it can materialize most commanders would take that option, rather then take a chance on being attacked first. Its not patronizing to point these things out.

To Rommel's thinking the best way to defend Libya was to drive the British out of Egypt. As long as the British held Egypt their superior logistics, sea, and air power would give them the long term advantage.
 
Chapter 8
Chapter 8

05-31-42 1930 hours Arcoma Libya, Panzer Army HQ mobile traveling group, Panzer III Ausf J "Lilli 3" 5th Panzer Regiment 21st Panzer Division, commander Stabsfeldwebel Lothar Bix, GeneralOberst Erwin Rommel sitting on top of tank, rendering it Army HQ

Rommel lightly kicked Bix in the boot to wake him up, wake up Stabber, we have arrived in Arcoma, field kitchen is serving your platoon next

Bix half shuffled and stumbled off the tank, which left a distinct impression on Rommel, 21st panzer, no matter how much general Von Bismark might boast about them being the best division in the army, they needed at least 1 day of rest; Rommel thought Lilli 3 smelled like piss far more than even a desert tank should; the encampment was being set up; or more objectively, the men where dropping of exhaustion in or next to their machines

The blessing for them was that a quartermaster platoon from 15th panzer and 2 from 90th light had arrived right on their heels, loaded with appropriated British water and rations. Rommel hoped a good nights rest would restore their vigor, the tankers had been worked very hard the last 72 hours and it was showing

He had other reasons to be hopeful, earlier in the day, his mind, bored of the endless sand driving in the Panzer III had wandered back to a heated conversation he had with field Marshal Kesselring back in January. Rommel had been pressing for his rebound offensive, which would become the 2nd battle of El Agelhia, to which the commander of OB Sud had objected. Rommel in one of his more insubordinate displays of ego tapped his blue max and his knights cross saying I know what it takes to win a war with nothing. Kesselring, never letting his poker face or smile dissipate, reached into his pocket and pulled out his balloon artillery observers badge and held it up to Rommel, I fought my war too. Rommel instantly regretted his underestimation of the field marshal; even if Rommel could think and be told he was the best soldier in the last war... the balloon observers... he had seen a number of them shot down by artillery in 1914 in France, men covered in flames jumping to their deaths, leutants... like him, please forgive my temper sir

The field marshal still never surrendered his smile, tapped the German eagle on his left breast and extended his hand, same side general.

After that incident, Rommel could disagree with everything Kesselring did and thought, but he carved out a distinct respect for the man himself. And that respect only grew when Kesselring landed right alongside their column earlier that day bearing good news

The airlift had now brought in 4000 men to the 90th light, and starting later today, the men of the 2nd parachute brigade "Ramcke" would start to be air lifted into Libya; the Panzer Army would be responsible for their transport and supporting equipment; Kesselring had already passed on word to General Kleeman about his new guests and he would make the arrangements for the Luftwaffe men. But the bigger surprise was the next words out of his mouth

FMAK: Berlin has issued us a replacement commander for Von Vaerest, while he recovers from his wounds
GOER: That isn't necessary, the army surgeon has assured us he can return to duty soon and Craseman is man enough for the job
FMAK: It's General Major Raus
GOER:
(Rommel was a man never at a loss for words or immediate reaction to something, but he was confounded by what Kesselring had just said)...Berlin, would release Raus? He IS the 6th panzer division
FMAK: It made sense to Oberst Schmundt and the fuhrer, that if Raus' men where coming to africa, that their general should come too
GOER:
(his eyes nearly welling up) the DAK is getting the 6th panzer division?
FMAK: No, there's nothing left of it's tanks anyway, all lost in Russia. the survivors of the 11th Panzer Regiment and it's other troops are going to be flown to Africa and merged into the 15th panzer division, and Raus will become the new commander. The 6th panzer division itself will be rebuilt from scratch in France; you are only getting men
GOER: Those Westphelians are good men! Thank you and your staff sir for your confidence and backing of the Army
FMAK: We are working on the Commando Supremo to free up more troops there as well, and wipe that smile off your face, or I will lose my reputation as the army's eternal optimist
GOER:
(Without even attempting to follow that order) yes sir Rommel called on Oberst Bayerlin and Westphal to let them know the good news; the 6th panzer crews would be flown into Tripoli for the desert tankers course and then reassigned to the 15th panzer division whenever and wherever they could be mated. Raus would be sent to Africa from Brittany as soon as possible. Rommel had met Raus several times in 1939 and 1940 and came away with a high impression of the Austrian tank commander. Rommel had requested him in Africa in his initial deployment, but General Kempf held on to Raus like a newborn baby and wouldn't release him from the 6th; Rommel had requested him again when the 15th panzer's first commander General Prittwitz had been killed in action near Tobruk, and General Landgraf of the 6th panzer fought tooth and nail to keep him in command of the 6th Panzer's 11th Panzer Regiment, and with the 6th scheduled to play a large roll in Barbarossa, Raus was denied to the DAK

The 6th had fought a long brutal war from June 1941 until March 1942 when it was pulled off the line with the spring mud in Russia to be rebuilt in France. Raus division was intended to be replenished as 10 percent over regulation strength as the army's main strategic reserve for the fall, but Kesselring's optimism, and blandishments about all the equipment they had captured in Africa, had convinced high command that the division could be newborn in France, and the veteran personel, fed to Rommel's army in Africa, with Raus at their head

Italian motorcycle messengers where coming too and from Arcoma reporting on events to the west, and Crasemen... no Raus' troops where pulling up to the east of Arcoma outside the Tobruk perimeter and supplies needed to be brought up and distributed and 90th light now reported that the 29th Indian motorized had started appearing east of belhamed; Rommel smiled at that, east of Belhamed, certainly not where he would have sent them, he mused to himself that the big garrison of troops at Tobruk would never move; reading the latest intercepts of Colonel Fellers reporting, he believed he had the battle won
 

ferdi254

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The point is here in the end that no matter how successful Rommel gets (and I do not think for a second to go into that discussion) in the end US forces will land in Marocco and the end may be 3-4 months later but Germany cannot hold on to Africa.

And every single soldier moved from the Russian front to Africa will be missed sorely in Russia.
 
The point is here in the end that no matter how successful Rommel gets (and I do not think for a second to go into that discussion) in the end US forces will land in Marocco and the end may be 3-4 months later but Germany cannot hold on to Africa.

And every single soldier moved from the Russian front to Africa will be missed sorely in Russia.
This is sort of where I have regrets in the title of this thread; The intention isn't to introduce a May 1942 point of departure, that creates anything that could be defined as the axis winning the war; this is really intended to be ~what if super gazala~

and as I said earlier in the thread, Rommel didn't lose by very much and with the points of departure I have introduced here, which by our hindsight knowledge would likely create more difficult outcomes for case blue, he can do better... so there is a good chance this thread evolves into what if super gazala/worse case blue to the degree i'd be willing to cover events in Russia
 
The point is here in the end that no matter how successful Rommel gets (and I do not think for a second to go into that discussion) in the end US forces will land in Marocco and the end may be 3-4 months later but Germany cannot hold on to Africa.

And every single soldier moved from the Russian front to Africa will be missed sorely in Russia.
Will they though? It seems to me that if there is a serious crisis in Egypt then the Americans (and British don't forget) will have to scrap Torch and move those forces to Egypt delaying the war by a good 6 months at lest.
This is sort of where I have regrets in the title of this thread; The intention isn't to introduce a May 1942 point of departure, that creates anything that could be defined as the axis winning the war; this is really intended to be ~what if super gazala~

and as I said earlier in the thread, Rommel didn't lose by very much and with the points of departure I have introduced here, which by our hindsight knowledge would likely create more difficult outcomes for case blue, he can do better... so there is a good chance this thread evolves into what if super gazala/worse case blue to the degree i'd be willing to cover events in Russia
Honestly how much worse could case blue get consdering how bad it all ended up being. Honestly if case blue isn't as successful to begin with then maby the axsis dosnt lose 3 armys by the end of it.
 
If the original battle of Gazala was a wargame, Rommel's plan might be modeled as two rolls. The first one against the French, requiring probably a 70% roll to succeed, and the second to envelop the rest of the boxes, also requiring a 70% or so. So his plan to work decisively probably required two decent rolls, the aggregate of which is about 50%. OTL he got one good roll and one bad one, something that happens about 40%ish of the time (two bad rolls is about 10%).
So armchair commanders like us can debate---was Gazala a good risk for Rommel given the distribution of things that could happen? Rommel probably thought his most likely outcome was something like in this timeline---as in, he bulldozes the French out of the way with a typical 3:1 with air superiority, separates the rest of the boxes, destroying each with something on somewhere between 5-7:1 charts one at a time, and uses his 'reading the enemy's mail' ability to blunt any counterattacks, and of course captures tons of supplies. But I wager Rommel knew he was rolling the dice and that both parts had to work or everything would get way dicier.
And he probably knew he'd never get better odds. He probably also knew that 'reading the enemy's mail' wouldn't last much longer either.
 
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