Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

Status
Not open for further replies.

Garrison

Donor
No offense dude but you are being pretty hostile to a timeline that has 6 posts and has hardly progressed at all beyond it's PoD. OP has given no indication that they're a Wehraboo or whatever and making posts like this just seems like baseless insults.
Its a TL in which the Nazis do better than OTL in the Middle East, what else can you call that but Nazi Fanfiction?
 
Its a TL in which the Nazis do better than OTL in the Middle East, what else can you call that but Nazi Fanfiction?
That is a very strange point to make on an alternate history forum. There are plenty of stories/timelines on this board that are absolutely horrendous compared to OTL, yet I wouldn't dream of accusing those authors of actually writing their stories because they secretly wished for history to have played out that way.
 
Its a TL in which the Nazis do better than OTL in the Middle East, what else can you call that but Nazi Fanfiction?
Do you know what forum you're in lmao? It's a post-1900 Alternate History forum, of course there are going to be a ton scenarios about the Nazis. Hell, one of the site's mod's wrote a TL with the premise of 'What if the Nazis did better'. Writing about the Nazis is one of the most common subjects for historical fiction and alternate history, that doesn't make those works 'Nazi fanfiction' or indicate anything about the personal character of the creators of said works. Nor does it give you the right to accuse someone of downplaying the Holocaust.
 
chapter 5
Chapter 5- Aftermath of Black Thursday, Napoleon's position

05-29-42 1000 hours
HQ 8th Army and Middle East Command, Cairo Egypt, LT General Neil Ritchie and Field Marshal Claude Auchinlek commanding respectively

The options for general Ritchie, where boundless as they where fraught with danger. Although communications where patchy, especially with the disappearance of General Gott and the XIII corps staff HQ, he was starting to grasp the disaster that befallen the 8th army on Black Thursday

The glaring emergency was the presence of DAK formations currently occupying the 8th army's supply structure at El Adem and Gambut respectively. This was a knife at the 8th army's throat. The theater commander agreed that the highest priority had to be the restoration of communications to the troops on the Gazala line

There was another concern as well. Namely reports had been received by the 150th Brigade that 2 big divisions of Italian troops had arrived at Sidi Muftah and that the minefields had been penetrated to their north, by what was tentatively identified as the Trento division. Ritchie could see that except for a supporting battalion of the 7th armored brigade that had been in reserve just outside Sidi Muftah, the 150th brigade was cut off, and in grave danger

The communications issues and the heavy disruption to the airforce made things all the more difficult. A more shrewd and experienced commander than General Ritchie would have recognized that he had many tanks in depots in Egypt and more ability to reinforce than Rommel, and would have massed the two strong guards Brigades and the remaining two brigades of the 50th British division to pierce the Italian infantry on the coastal road, drive on Bengahzi and end the campaign in Africa right then and there, but Neil Ritchie was not that general.

Not only did he concur with his superior that the restoration of communications was the most important, he had telegrams from London that almost smoked arriving every few hours asking how the army could possibly have left Gambut undefended and that Tobruk should be defended like it had been in 1941 should it become surrounded. Ritchie's grumbling that the raw and poorly rated South Africans where not the Elite Australian infantry that had defended the place before, and that the defenses had been allowed to fall into disrepair under his predecessor fell on deaf hours, as London continued to extoll him that he had 1100 tanks under his command and that the axis couldn't have many more than 300, and that he should seek battle and destroy the DAK (These notes from Churchill to Middle East HQ are historical except for the Gambut part)

General Ritchie could only grit his teeth at the interference. At least London was only 250 miles away in the last war, their meddling then was more well informed in his opinion. London was now 2200 miles away, and never apologized or changed their ways of constantly underestimating Rommel's strength and ability to reinforce. He was on the attack now, that was for sure, yet London had said he wouldn't be able to attack for another 8 weeks. They had said he had 20 tanks left in the winter and we should drive like hell for Tripoli, instead he had received many dozens of replacement vehicles, which our own local informants warned us about, which we passed on to London, but where ordered to continue on; Rommel catching us badly over extended and defeating us at the Second Battle of El Agehlia. Ritchie was heard to remark in the Officers club once even before Black Thursday that if he heard about Rommel's last 20 tanks ever again he would punch the Prime Minister in the gut
1623696036195.jpeg

Historical map of Gazala 5-27 for reference; credit to Master Sargent Napoleon Spencer (British Royal Army) white paper on the battle of Gazala

To counter the Germans on the supply nodes, the army had been damaged, and the choices where difficult. The 4th tank brigade had been defeated by the 21st and elements of the 15th panzer, and had lost all of their grant tanks and in no position to help as their supply tail had been captured. The 7th tank brigade would have to be completely rebuilt from scratch with a new commander after their devastating encounters with the 90th light and 15th panzer division.

That left the already hard pressed 22nd and 1st armored brigades whom where in correct position to reform and attack El Adem, but both formations had lost significant rear command and control HQ units, and much of their truck companies to 21st panzer and 90th light respectively the day before. 22nd also had axis tank divisions on either side of it and was being bombed heavily from the air. This left Ritchie's only intact striking power as the 32nd tank brigade and the 2 guards infantry brigades; with Ritchie and Auchinlek concurring that pulling the 50th division or the 1st South African Division off Gazala would invite Field Marshal Bastico's other divisions to advance up the coastal road and drive on Tobruk. Ritchie didn't even want to imagine London's reaction if he was to do that

X corps would have the formations reassigned to them the formations would move along the Trigh Capuzzo trail at best independent speed to dislodge the axis from El Adem, and then hopefully victorious, drive on Gambut

Coordination and other problems would make the earliest possible move out appoximately 1600 hours. General Ritchie could just hope the 150th could hold on until he restored the rear areas

Will edit in authors note and perspective this evening
 
Now here's one obvious bit of context for what is described as a 'decisive victory' in North Africa what is going to happen in Palestine? Based on this wiki page:

Demographic history of Palestine (region)

It would appear there could be about 500,000 Jews living there. Are we going to see issues such as that dealt with or will this just be the Rommel/Nazi fan-fiction its been to date, with a convenient fade to black when the Swastika flies over Alexandria?
Are you serious? No living people ever suffers in an ATL.
Any ATL delaying the resolution of WW2 will have disasterous consequences, but in fiction only. There is no policy against that. There is a policy against trollying.
This is simply just such a mean and cheap shot at another person.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
Its a TL in which the Nazis do better than OTL in the Middle East, what else can you call that but Nazi Fanfiction?
Your arguments are getting weaker & weaker.

I have my doubts about the likelihood of a successful German advance post Gazala, but the OP has but forward arguments to support the flow, whereas you seem to have given up on reasoned debate.
 
OP is making solid, empirically-based arguments. It's bad faith to accuse people of apologia for making an ATL based one of the site's most commonly discussed topics.
 
As someone who expressed concern about plausibility earlier, I'm dipping back to simply say: let the OP tell his story. I see no sign of Wehraboo, trolling, or anything else - at most, it's a bit implausible but history's full of that.
 
As someone who expressed concern about plausibility earlier, I'm dipping back to simply say: let the OP tell his story. I see no sign of Wehraboo, trolling, or anything else - at most, it's a bit implausible but history's full of that.
What has been implausible?
 
What has been implausible?
Rommel did spectacularly well in OTL Gazala, aided by a source of intelligence that was about to be literally turned off and a signals intelligence team that was led by a man who starting to take stupid risks (and whose men paid for that in July when they were all killed or captured). Having Rommel doing even better, rolling even more sixes, having the French collapse at Bir Hakeim based on a single bomb (The Free French wouldn't fight like hell? Really?), strains the bounds of credibility.
Yes, 8th Army was not run well at that time. Ritchie should not have been in charge and frankly Auchinleck was a bad picker of men. However, they were not morons and they would fight their way Eastwards out of any perceived trap. It was not possible to trap 8th Army decisively, period. Substantial portions would have fought their way out of the trap, there would have been a stand on the Alamein position.
A decisive Nazi victory (let us call a spade a spade, shall we?) in North Africa is highly unlikely. Once Fellers stops using the Black Code then Rommel's run of excellent luck ends.
 
I'd actually assume much more confusion back in Cairo- they should be getting a great deal of fog-of-war.
I will use my response to you and @Cymraeg as a the authors note and perspective for chapter 5

This assessment and call up for the counterattack is occurring about 13 hours after 90th light reached the coast and about 16 hours after they reached Gambut. I am probably allotting the British a faster reaction time than should be considered plausible within this timeline... 50 percent of the HQ units have been captured or killed at this point including XIII corps staff vs 33 in OTL. I am still having Ritchie counter attack on the same schedule, and respond to London (churchill) meddling on the same schedule. If the losses had been as bad as this timeline to date it honestly is more likely the British would lose another day reorganizing command staff; but I am trying not avoid appearance of granting 6's which seems to be a hot button issue in this thread. Historically the initial counter attacks where successful against 90th light but brutally unsuccessful when they attacked the balance of the DAK trying to relieve the 150th Brigade in the cauldron. They are in a different tactical situation in my timeline and will end up with an altered outcome; Ritchie is using different units in my timeline for the counterattack because of the altered spacing, and the engagement of 22nd armored that the timeline has created

Regarding Rommel's intel, the dates so far in the timeline are 5-26 - 5-29 So his sources are still alive and feeding him information, which unfortunately will include Ritchie's counter attack plans (which leaked in otl) especially because X corps ends up commanding the operation and they had even worse radio security than XIII corps. Every British and commonwealth formation in the south, at the start of the campaign was decapitated and thoroughly defeated in the first 48 hours of operation venice except the French box, which was in a horrendous tactical and strategic position the second the battle started. The French holding on for 16 days was rolling a 7 on a dice, you could war game that battle 10000 times and they probably wouldn't get to a day 10 due to their supply situation and the air attacks in any simulation. My timeline has had Trieste, which as I mentioned above outnumbered them in manpower and firepower ~3.5:1 decapitate them and break their box, the same way every other formation was broken in the south. Using the dice analogy, and looking at the balance of forces, that is at most a 3 on the dice for the axis when they historically rolled a 0

Units of the 8th army did receive orders to hold their positions and await relief from the armored brigades that never came, and where unfortunately surrounded and compelled to surrender only the surviving brigades of the 50th division and the 1st south african division exercised initiative and broke out, with very heavy losses from the bag. The rest historically died or fought till they ran out water and had to surrender as per their orders at Sidi Muftah and Knightsbridge... and Tobruk, so I do disagree with the assertion that the 8th army wouldn't let itself get trapped; historically they where ordered to remain in the bag, and many of them did. Churchill Ritchie and Auchinleck saddled the 8th army with very bad sets of orders, the men did fight bravely despite those orders, to their credit; Rommel did lose invaluable tanks and infantry to valiant last stands by British, South African, French and Indian infantry and gunners who where hopelessly surrounded with no chance of escape in the historical timeline; the men deserved far better than the leadership they got from Cairo
 
Attacks in the 3:1 range against standard blocking positions (i.e. not the Maginot line, but somewhat improved with mines, trenches etc) work about 70% of the time, a good enough fit for 1-4 on a die roll. Curiously, in most organized army wargames, the referees don't bother to roll the die once the 3:1 is demonstrated. I recall reading some material some years back about the profound resistance by serving officers to the wargames using dice.
 
I will use my response to you and @Cymraeg as a the authors note and perspective for chapter 5

This assessment and call up for the counterattack is occurring about 13 hours after 90th light reached the coast and about 16 hours after they reached Gambut. I am probably allotting the British a faster reaction time than should be considered plausible within this timeline... 50 percent of the HQ units have been captured or killed at this point including XIII corps staff vs 33 in OTL. I am still having Ritchie counter attack on the same schedule, and respond to London (churchill) meddling on the same schedule. If the losses had been as bad as this timeline to date it honestly is more likely the British would lose another day reorganizing command staff; but I am trying not avoid appearance of granting 6's which seems to be a hot button issue in this thread. Historically the initial counter attacks where successful against 90th light but brutally unsuccessful when they attacked the balance of the DAK trying to relieve the 150th Brigade in the cauldron. They are in a different tactical situation in my timeline and will end up with an altered outcome; Ritchie is using different units in my timeline for the counterattack because of the altered spacing, and the engagement of 22nd armored that the timeline has created

Regarding Rommel's intel, the dates so far in the timeline are 5-26 - 5-29 So his sources are still alive and feeding him information, which unfortunately will include Ritchie's counter attack plans (which leaked in otl) especially because X corps ends up commanding the operation and they had even worse radio security than XIII corps. Every British and commonwealth formation in the south, at the start of the campaign was decapitated and thoroughly defeated in the first 48 hours of operation venice except the French box, which was in a horrendous tactical and strategic position the second the battle started. The French holding on for 16 days was rolling a 7 on a dice, you could war game that battle 10000 times and they probably wouldn't get to a day 10 due to their supply situation and the air attacks in any simulation. My timeline has had Trieste, which as I mentioned above outnumbered them in manpower and firepower ~3.5:1 decapitate them and break their box, the same way every other formation was broken in the south. Using the dice analogy, and looking at the balance of forces, that is at most a 3 on the dice for the axis when they historically rolled a 0

Units of the 8th army did receive orders to hold their positions and await relief from the armored brigades that never came, and where unfortunately surrounded and compelled to surrender only the surviving brigades of the 50th division and the 1st south african division exercised initiative and broke out, with very heavy losses from the bag. The rest historically died or fought till they ran out water and had to surrender as per their orders at Sidi Muftah and Knightsbridge... and Tobruk, so I do disagree with the assertion that the 8th army wouldn't let itself get trapped; historically they where ordered to remain in the bag, and many of them did. Churchill Ritchie and Auchinleck saddled the 8th army with very bad sets of orders, the men did fight bravely despite those orders, to their credit; Rommel did lose invaluable tanks and infantry to valiant last stands by British, South African, French and Indian infantry and gunners who where hopelessly surrounded with no chance of escape in the historical timeline; the men deserved far better than the leadership they got from Cairo
I see, and am putting this thread on IGNORE immediately, as I find it inherently implausible. Good day to you.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Now here's one obvious bit of context for what is described as a 'decisive victory' in North Africa what is going to happen in Palestine? Based on this wiki page:

Demographic history of Palestine (region)

It would appear there could be about 500,000 Jews living there. Are we going to see issues such as that dealt with or will this just be the Rommel/Nazi fan-fiction its been to date, with a convenient fade to black when the Swastika flies over Alexandria?
Stand down.
 
I had no intention to get anyone in trouble or to cause conflict in the forum. Im disappointed that members of an alternate history board would be close minded and reflexive :/ I would like to continue the timeline if that's permissible
 
I had no intention to get anyone in trouble or to cause conflict in the forum. Im disappointed that members of an alternate history board would be close minded and reflexive :/ I would like to continue the timeline if that's permissible
I don't think anyone is stopping you. The only mod action has been on the naysayers. And rightly so. Sometimes people can be close-minded.

Even if you get significant real flack (which hasn't been what you're getting) you'd have to violate board rules to get in actual trouble.

TL/DR, recognize the trolls for what they are, ignore them, and converse with people willing to listen and be productive.

Edit: that certainly doesn't mean only talk to people that agree with you! There's an art to it. I've learned a lot from people on this board who have different opinions but put in the work and respond to the exact topic at hand (instead of regurgitating cliches and incessantly naysaying for its own sake...).
 
Last edited:
I see, and am putting this thread on IGNORE immediately, as I find it inherently implausible. Good day to you.
As said to some posters before (not you in particular), if one cannot accept the premise as laid out in the title, why log on and try to derail another persons work. You, Garrison and Oldironside really showed what you are made of here on a so far very well argued and balanced TL. As I said even earlier, if you want credibility you have to argue based on content which in this TL has been excellent from the start until now.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top