Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

[cardcarrier]

The point went thataway.

It's not the long-term or medium-term I'm talking about. It's the short-term.

Hard fighting chews up troops and formations and equipment. What has been developed is a situation where attacking troops are exhausted and equipment is in need of repair and it will take time to get things back together. It's why after a hard fight, there is usually a pause and the troops that were involved get a breather. It's much more exhausting and debilitating to be on the attack than on the defence, so tempo is shifting towards the British.

Maintaining an attack beyond the initial phases needs tempo management, and usually involves three layers (sometimes more, rarely less). Layer 1 makes the initial attack and achieves the initial objectives. They then sit on that objective, resting and holding, while layer 2 moves through to move on to the follow-on objectives, while layer 3 is held ready to support either should there be unexpected difficulties (there will be). The faster the tempo one maintains, the more layers one needs, because exhausted troops thrown into an offensive operation quickly become dead troops.

To take a more modern example, and one in which I suspect I am more familiar with the details than most: June 11/12, 1982. 42 Cdo takes Mt Harriet. In doing so, they take 1 dead and 6 wounded to the extent of being unfit for further action, out of a strength of nigh on 700. 1% casualties. Trivial. And yet we were in no state to launch an attack on the follow-up objective of Mt Tumbledown, that being left to the Scots Guards.

Here, you've been committing large elements of available forces, and this will have consequences. The consequence is that follow-up actions become harder to the point of non-viable.

The German forces, as described to date, now have some very unpalatable options. They attack quickly, with degraded units, hoping to continue to get outrageous luck, and inevitably bounce. Or they wait to build up their strength for the next attack, in a situation where the British are building up their strength faster. Or they make an uneasy compromise, which gets the worst of both worlds. Or they pull back to their start lines and hope to draw the British forward into a killing ground (again).

this is true, even inside Rommel having a big victory; Gazala after all was a big victory; his strategic options where all bad and his army was exhausted after the hard fighting to achieve his big victory; and his superiors refused to give him reinforcements until it was too late and his window of initiative was lost; I have however saved him 2.5 weeks of fighting by my ATL ; so even though his manpower losses are worse his vehicle erosion isn't as bad

thats why parallel to my having him have a more complete/decisive victory at Gazala, I'm having his superiors fold to his needs for reinforcements instead of insisting that they continue to be held for Hercules which is an attempt to offset the heavy losses he takes in my super Gazala; even at drastically negative strategic consequence (which they wouldn't know) to the eastern front

my timeline even giving Rommel distinct advantages and favors that he missed out on STILL depends on the British suffering an even more intense crisis of confidence than OTL which was already 90 percent chicken without head level

 

[BELFAST]

When the Americans arrive in Egypt to fight Rommel will they come across the Atlantic via the med or cross the pacific to Egypt via the red sea?

 

[cardcarrier]

When the Americans arrive in Egypt to fight Rommel will they come across the Atlantic via the med or cross the pacific to Egypt via the red sea?

as previously stated I am not much of a student on the pacific war, so I don't know how congested west coast ports where to support operations in the south pacific and the build up for operation watch tower

i was sort of presuming that units would be dispatched out of atlantic ports, around the cape and unloaded at suez

 

[BELFAST]

as previously stated I am not much of a student on the pacific war, so I don't know how congested west coast ports where to support operations in the south pacific and the build up for operation watch tower

i was sort of presuming that units would be dispatched out of atlantic ports, around the cape and unloaded at suez

Coming around the cape could run into some very bad weather rounding the South Africa cape of good hope.
It does look like there was a route around the cape

Lend-Lease insignia

Years ago I bought labels similar to this one and I always thought they were American labels, used by the American Homefront and Army. But later I found out that they were for food products of the Lend-Lease Act of 1941. Lend-Lease Act As Germany marched across western

www.atlas-repropaperwork.com

 

[cardcarrier]

Chapter 13.2

06-05-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Cairo Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Colonel Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ

Urgent update and personal observations:

Mood and atmosphere conditions in GHQ are grim following final collapse of Gazala
Despite Auchinlek allowing some rest rotations many GHQ staff officers are showing signs of fatigue and loss of sharpness
Our own staff is going to perform some rotations starting tomorrow to allow them to regain composure and nerve and reapproach their work with clear heads
Auchinlek himself after allowing himself and Smith to alternate some rest has now been on duty 36 consecutive hours again and is showing the occasional lapses in focus and concentration that one would expect after so many difficult days in a row
Smith is showing even more signs of fatigue and frequently making drastic and sweeping alternations to his recommended responses to the defense of Egypt; which places more burden on the GHQ staff and is leaving them discontented
Some GHQ staffers are communicating to London via intermediaries to press for the removal of Smith and Auchinlek
South African, and other commonwealth staff officers are applying pressure using government channels to force London to dismiss Smith and Auchinlek; their working relationships appear beyond repair at this point
It is widely rumored that when ICGS officers arrive in Cairo that they will relieve everyone currently in GHQ to scapegoat them for the failure at Gazala
Smith casts near total blame on the 8th army's full defeat on London, saying that their refusal to authorize freeborne early enough their uninformed orders about staying in Toburk denied the Army the operational initiative it needed to extricate itself from Rommel's trap
Smith now resisting and rescinding some of Ritchie's security inquiry items, saying "what does it matter if Rommel has spies if London is ordering us to lose the war anyway"
Condition of Smith himself and his ability to operate with the subordinate staffs is gravely concerning; especially since many senior officers have been captured or killed in the fighting at Gazala
Naming of replacement unit commanders is explosively bitter inside GHQ because of Smith's involvement and the lack of trust between the rest of the GHQ staff officers and Smith
Given the above we presume and have always supported based on our previous reports that Smith be removed from Egypt as the official American position, given Smith's poor relationship with our own attache staff, and the commonwealth staffs, we deem it essential that deployed USA units, such as they are authorized have separate army command and separate supply commands
Smith has now stopped berating our staff about lend lease deliveries of tanks and switched to pushing London to do so on his behalf to USA senior officers and members of government
Our current middle case assessment is that Auchinlek has 115-175 running tanks in Egypt, there are no strait answers on this item from GHQ; their staff holds out hope for some stragglers to find their way over the border
Our current middle case assessment is that Rommel after a 7 day consolidation would have 250 running tanks (German and Italian and Captured British Runners)
Our middle case assessment doesn't take into account his undeployed "littorio" and "6th" panzer divisions because intelligence information on these units is sparse and both our staff and GHQ don't know if they are replacements or fresh formations
GHQ private middle case assessment is that Rommel has captured enough fuel stocks to support 7 divisions to Mersah Matruh, one of their higher estimates says he can reach the Delta with 5 divisions right now with the fuel he has confiscated
Modeling is wildly varied because the DAK when capturing British truck companies in the past has siphoned fuel out of some of the trucks and scuttled them to give the keepers more gas, and the British are having a hard enough figuring out actual depots he has captured versus smaller details such as that; but at this point of the emergency every bit of fuel in his tanks is a dagger at the delta and Cairo
The extreme scale of the calamity that has befallen the 8th army and GHQ staff is spilling into the streets of Cairo far more noticeably; Major Hillaire is conducting our own staff assessment of the civilian population attitude inside Egypt
He already reports that the Tobruk disaster is widely discussed in marketplaces and there is starting to be talk about Rommel's arrival in Cairo
Operation Rapier is tying up considerable staff time in their bickering about it's use. Our own staff has serious concerns about the hostility this would generate between the Egyptian public and the British Army, and would have concern that hostility could spill over to deployed USA troops if that is authorized
Operation Rapier plans are attached to the end of this transmission; please review and forward to senior goverment/state department members as appropriate. Please distribute with the utmost discretion; operation rapier is not known or shared with the Egyptian army or populace by intention as of this moment
Our own staff (outside of demolishing the harbor) disagrees with Rapier; we feel the political consequences and hostility of the locals would not be worth whatever military advantage would be gained between scorched earth/vs standard military retreat
Auchinlek does not accept the Navy's red lines and feels that if the fleet evacuates that the troops will not fight and will be looking over their shoulders for their next lines of retreat; but the Navy has direct approval from London for their red lines outside of Auchinlek's chain of command and consider themselves the senior service
The desert air force disclosures about losing so many sorties if they have to redeploy again was not initially considered by our staff in our recommendation for the Alamein position; it is not unfair to say that Auchinlek's options are bleak under the disclosures by the air force and the navy
The navy's briefings about the food situation on Malta are absolutely chilling; particularly as they feel Rommel will trigger their red lines very soon; London is aware that the situation on Malta is dire, but that the situation of the fleet in Egypt is also potentially dire. They are considering options to delay Julius entirely, deploy Julius without Vigorous; or to cancel the entire operation to leave the fleets flexible in the face of Rommels ground advances
Royal navy staff officers privately advise that if Julius is postponed without being able to be launched within 30 days the true starvation conditions will set in, in Malta, and that they may have to open terms with the Italians to take custody of the Island to save the civilian population from unbearable suffering
Royal navy staff officers openly say evacuating the island is impossible now that Rommel has taken all of the western desert airbases; and that they cannot supply the ships necessary to do it nor risk them being sunk in air attacks; this causes explosive feuds with Auchinlek and Smith who even if the island has to be given to the enemy want to recover their battalions from there
Now that Royal navy staff agree that Rommel has moderate use of Toburk, they have turned negative on the whole towards Malta feeling that Rommel is on the verge of rendering it irrelevent; particularly if he captures Egyptian ports; and due to repeated aggressive air attacks on ships going to resupply Malta all year which has cost the navy many lives and resources whilst still having the population and the troops struggling to have full bellies
The British, because they have lost so many troops previously and in this battle are making use of super numeraries in all their other deep garrisons in the middle east and Cyprus, to try and confuse the enemy to their remaining strength; as before Auchinlek on paper has 4 divisions in Egypt but troop strength and deployment is uneven and there is no cohearant defensive plan; they are still in mourning for the 8th army in Libya
The lack of a concrete plan per private discussions with Desert Air Force staff officers is leaving them between two stools, and not letting them strategically stockpile materials needed to engage Rommel's airforce on better terms
The transfer of fighter units from the Canal zone to the Egyptian border has coincided with increased axis air raids on Alexandria and the Suez canal which is causing heavy confrontations between all the services and continued pleas to London to re-evaluate it's decisions
Smith's ideas about retaining armor/aircraft and manpower in the south in reserve have some support in GHQ but no one wants to be seen publicly endorsing anything Smith says or does because of the rumors about his immenent sacking from London
All GHQ staffers believing that Auchinlek is under immenent threat of being relieved for the failure in Libya, not just Smith
Rommel's need to consolidate is wildly speculated on in GHQ with some staffers and intelligence officers who have been wrong about him several times, saying he will need 18 weeks to rebuild his army to carry the offensive into Egypt! When our own alaysis is that he might come over the border in 7 days! Auchinlek seems more grounded and sober about the realities of this thankfully
There is some rumor inside GHQ that Auchinlek may offer his resignation to London tomorrow to take responsibility for the collapse in Libya off the shoulders of Ritchie and the staff; we regard any wholesale change in command beyond the relief of Ritchie which was already done to be a grave error; and that this should be postponed, even if necessary until the crisis is over

End transmission

 

[BELFAST]

I wonder did Rommel capture the 8th army payroll cash and cash reserves etc? That could be useful for bribes to the local Arabs.

 

[BELFAST]

The Germans will be looking forward to the arrival of the Americans so they can loot their coffee and get some trucks and jeeps with the steering wheels on the correct side.

 

[BELFAST]

It occurs to me if the Americans have to come to the long route around the cape and the bad weather there they could be in worse shape than OTL and require more rest and repair of equipment due to the longer transit and damage from the rough weather.
example of liberty ship lost at the cape in 1942 carrying Sherman tanks

1. Thomas T. Tucker

Like the decaying corpse of a fallen behemoth, the wreck of the SS Thomas T. Tucker lies on the rocks of Olifantsbosch Point, its back broken, its stern twisted towards the land and its bow tilted forward in defeat.
The Thomas T. Tucker – named after the first freed American slave – was a Liberty Ship built in 1942 by the Houston Ship Building Corporation in Texas. In New Orleans, the ship was loaded with a cargo of Sherman tanks, spares, lorries and barbed wire and she set sail for Suez, where the Allies were engaged in the North African campaign against the Germans.
On 27 November 1942, the captain was rounding Cape Point when he thought he had seen the Italian submarine, the Ammiraglio Cagni, which had been reported to be patrolling these waters. In an attempt to dodge the submarine, the captain changed course and, in thick fog, ran directly into Olifantsbosch Point.
The captain thought he had run aground on Robben Island. His confusion was later explained when it was discovered that his compass was faulty by a disastrous 37 degrees!
The recovery of the Thomas T. Tucker’s cargo was an epic exercise. A road was bulldozed through the pristine dunes of the beach and a large cable system was erected. Most of the cargo was successfully recovered, but the salvage effort took five months to complete. https://capepoint.co.za/cape-of-storms/

SS Thomas T. Tucker - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[cardcarrier]

I wonder did Rommel capture the 8th army payroll cash and cash reserves etc? That could be useful for bribes to the local Arabs.

by capturing the rail head in a surprise party that would be possible I think

 

[cardcarrier]

The Germans will be looking forward to the arrival of the Americans so they can loot their coffee and get some trucks and jeeps with the steering wheels on the correct side.

bring on the correct driving booty

 

[GTStinger]

When the Americans arrive in Egypt to fight Rommel will they come across the Atlantic via the med or cross the pacific to Egypt via the red sea?

My grandfather was in a liaison unit for the 9th Air Force, that was one of the first US commands in Egypt. His transit was NYC-Brazil-South Africa-Bombay-Suez.

 

[nbcman]

The Americans are probably already either in Sudan or Egypt. HALPRO / Halverston Detachment left the US in May and flew to Egypt where they stopped instead of continuing on to the Far East. They flew their first mission on 11 June 1942 against Ploesti.

If the brown stuff was truly hitting the fan, those B-24s could be tasked to interdict the Axis supply lines earlier as they did IOTL after 15 June 1942.

Halverson Detachment | American Air Museum

www.americanairmuseum.com

 

[cardcarrier]

The Americans are probably already either in Sudan or Egypt. HALPRO / Halverston Detachment left the US in May and flew to Egypt where they stopped instead of continuing on to the Far East. They flew their first mission on 11 June 1942 against Ploesti.

If the brown stuff was truly hitting the fan, those B-24s could be tasked to interdict the Axis supply lines earlier as they did IOTL after 15 June 1942.

Halverson Detachment | American Air Museum

www.americanairmuseum.com

they would have some delay in spooling up but use of b-24's brings about Rommel's ultimate truth about operation Herkules; that the next generation of American bombers could bomb tripoli and his ships at sea from Egyptian bases anyway, rendering taking Malta as no longer valuable

that logic was never applied by the Royal Navy who continued being willing to lose lots of ships going to Malta and put the civilian population through hunger and hell, but the circumstances of my timeline are different; so perhaps they come into step with that thinking

 

[Aber]

this would let Brescia, Trento and 21st panzer engage the 151 and 69th boxes in detail at force advantage ratios of at least 5:1

Workings please.

You only had a battlegroup of 21st panzer involved and it has fought hard to date, so probably no more than regimental strength. Trento starts as a binary division and has had 2 hard fought engagements, so is probably now at weak regimental strength or lower. Brescia starts with only 2 regiments and no mobility as you stripped the truck mounted infantry companies at the start of the battle.

They are attacking 2 mutually supporting brigades of infantry and artillery (with some remnants of infantry tank support), plus whatever the South Africans can throw in, protected by minefields. At best you get to 2:1, but only if you can effectively co-ordinate between German armoured forces and foot mobile Italian infantry. Key issue is that there are probably more anti-tank guns than attacking tanks, so tank losses will be high.

Rommel looses a significant amount of Italian infantry in these assault

If the Italian infantry were prepared to take large losses, then they should have taken Egypt in 1940.

Before this engagement Rommel has an interesting quandry - rush his mobile forces east to seize ground and try to rout the remaining British units east of him; or fight a static battle of attrition to destroy the units still on the Gazala line.

 

[BELFAST]

by capturing the rail head in a surprise party that would be possible I think

What might be even worse would be if they lost the kings colours.
I do not think they carried regimental or king colours in 1942.
Losing the Kings colours

 

[cardcarrier]

Workings please.

You only had a battlegroup of 21st panzer involved and it has fought hard to date, so probably no more than regimental strength. Trento starts as a binary division and has had 2 hard fought engagements, so is probably now at weak regimental strength or lower. Brescia starts with only 2 regiments and no mobility as you stripped the truck mounted infantry companies at the start of the battle.

They are attacking 2 mutually supporting brigades of infantry and artillery (with some remnants of infantry tank support), plus whatever the South Africans can throw in, protected by minefields. At best you get to 2:1, but only if you can effectively co-ordinate between German armoured forces and foot mobile Italian infantry. Key issue is that there are probably more anti-tank guns than attacking tanks, so tank losses will be high.


If the Italian infantry were prepared to take large losses, then they should have taken Egypt in 1940.

Before this engagement Rommel has an interesting quandry - rush his mobile forces east to seize ground and try to rout the remaining British units east of him; or fight a static battle of attrition to destroy the units still on the Gazala line.

I realize how sloppy I wrote that section and the confusion I caused; will edit appropriately, ill tag you when made cleaner, the error maybe spills into a couple of sections ill try to browse through in reader mode and clean up the continuity

 

[BELFAST]

Hq in Egypt seems not unlike the below.
Bkackadder and general melchett

 

[Aber]

I realize how sloppy I wrote that section and the confusion I caused; will edit appropriately, ill tag you when made cleaner, the error maybe spills into a couple of sections ill try to browse through in reader mode and clean up the continuity

OK but you need the Panzer divisions to destroy those boxes. However if you use them to do that then they cannot be elsewhere on the battlefield, and will suffer significant losses doing so, both delaying and weakening any subsequent advance eastwards.

 

[cjc]

OK but you need the Panzer divisions to destroy those boxes. However if you use them to do that then they cannot be elsewhere on the battlefield, and will suffer significant losses doing so, both delaying and weakening any subsequent advance eastwards.

Could you...I don't know give him some time to edit it? Instead of bleating insistently.

 

[BELFAST]

American rations heading for north Africa

A Simple Three-Meal System

The concept behind K Rations was simple: a daily ration of three meals—breakfast, dinner, and supper—that gives each soldier approximately 9,000 calories with 100 grams of protein. Within months, scores of food, cereal, candy, coffee, tobacco, and other companies were producing components for and packaging K Rations.

If the concept was simple, so were the components. The breakfast unit contained a four-ounce can of chopped ham and egg with opening key, four K-1 biscuits, or energy crackers, four K-2 compressed graham crackers, a two-ounce fruit bar, one packet of water-soluble coffee, three sugar tablets, four cigarettes, and one piece of gum.

The dinner unit contained the same, except pasteurized process American cheese replaced the meat component, dextrose tablets replaced the fruit bar, and lemon juice powder replaced the coffee.

The supper unit differed with a can of beef and pork loaf, a two-ounce D Ration instead of dextrose tablets, and a packet of bouillon powder in place of lemon juice powder.

All items fit snugly into an inner box just under seven inches long surrounded by an outer box. The meat component and cigarettes were packed separately with the remaining items sealed in a laminated cellophane bag. A day’s ration of three units weighed just over two pounds.
https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2016/09/30/k-rations-created-the-worlds-best-fed-army/