Sixes and Snake eyes Rommel's luck in an alternate 1942 desert war

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164th inf - crete garrison (historical, but early)
Ramcke Paratroops - earmarked hercules (historical, but early)
6th panzer division troops only - OKW reserve (not historical)
10th special italian tank regiment - earmarked hecules (historical but early)
special German heavy panzer 4 company - earmarked hercules (historical but early)

troops under consideration
san marco marine regiment+special attachments - earmarked hercules (historical) "the best troops i've ever commanded" - Hans Jurgen Von Arnim
4th Italian Infantry "Livorno assault and landing division" - earmarked hercules (was historically intended to go to africa at some point but orders where cancelled and it was used as main defensive force in Sicily)
Hmm... guess there really isn't the logistics for any of the other units earmarked for hukules (like the german paratroopers)
 
Hmm... guess there really isn't the logistics for any of the other units earmarked for hukules (like the german paratroopers)
the ports where badly back up in June because of the staging of the new Littorio armored division in OTL; everything I have fiated Rommel so far is air taxi only; the 164th and Ramcke troops where historical air taxi

edit: I am having Rommel capture Tobruk in a little working order vs pancake level it was in otl due to less sustained bombing/faster collapse
livorno though labeled as a naval assault division was a fully motorized infantry division of about 10k men; rated 1st class by Albert Kesselring; they did put in tough fights in OTL against American troops in Sicily at the battle of Gela
 
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Where's the Regia Aeronautica and Marina in all this?
the reggia aeronautica was a big contributing factor in the victory, historically and in this timeline; the regia marina did have some fuel released to them for purposes of Herkules, but im not sure there much for them to do other than send out their subs for loc/merchant warfare
 
13.1
Chapter 13.1

06-05-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Cairo Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Colonel Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ


Urgent update:

Due to chaotic combat situation, briefings are off schedule and disjointed, will report back 2-3 times per day as necessary or ordered
Gazala troops surrender to Panzer Army Africa !
50th British division and 1st south African division, and elements of other divisions pushed into their pocket lost!
GHQ staff officers assessing total men lost, there was similar unit mixing issues due to heavy combat the last few days, privately they admit upwards of 20,000 men lost along the coast road and in the boxes
GHQ staff officers advise large loss of army materials at Gazala
GHQ staff officers advise large loss of armored vehicles and transport at Gazala
GHQ staff officers privately advise 83000+ men lost since Rommel began attack, at least 65 percent are pows or missing
Mood and atmostphere in GHQ heavily impacted by loss of Gazala troops
Smith and Auchinlek heavily impacted by loss of Gazala troops
South African staff officers are furious at the loss of their divisions, this represented large share of their contribution to the war, and they where hopelessly cut off under Ritchie's command with almost no opportunity to fight back
Ritchie is relieved of command, Auchinlek and Smith take over direct command of the 8th army
South African staff officers eagerly await arrival by GHQ officers who are en route to inspect conditions
South African staff officers openly insuborindate to Smith, this creates difficult working condition between them
South African staff officers applying heavy pressure via their government to have Smith removed from Egypt... and Auchinlek
GHQ staff officers privately advise Gazala line and box system was a mistake, and that the forces where far too dispersed; which allowed Rommel to engage them in detail and inflict locally heavy defeats
GHQ staff officers privately advise they greatly underestimated the armored strength Rommel had built on the recovery from Operation Crusader
GHQ staff officers privately advise they have undersestimated the quality of some new models of German and Italian tanks
Desert air force staff officers privately advise they underestimated the quality and sortie tempo of the axis airforce was capable of projecting in an offense, they advise recon was severely underutilized
Desert air force staff officers privately advise, that far too much of the forward operational air force assets and CCC was based at Gambut, which was more exposed to potential ground assault than was realized; failure to adequately defend or counter attack this area successfully was devastating throughout the battle and conceded much air space to the axis, especially as the battle wore on and the supply of long range fighter escort drop tanks was depleted
GHQ staff officers privately advise disposition of supplies and failure to destroy axis supplies was a grave error as screening forces to the south were easily maneuvered around which let Rommel get deep into the hen house right at the start of the battle
The quality of Rommel's air recon network was underestimated
The quality of Rommel's other sources of intelligence has been underestimated
Rommel's ability to maneuver in the most unexpected directions in all defiance of conventional military wisdom to force great elements of surprise, was heavily underestimated
The quality of some of the Italian divisions was underestimated per private GHQ disclosures, especially Italian mechanized troops at knights bridge
GHQ staff officers advise that scale of army equipment and supplies lost to Rommel the past week is strategically devastating and make up many gaps in his supply chain
GHQ and our staff regard Rommel deploying 5 divisions over the border into Egypt as, least case; one GHQ estimate is that he can deploy 9 divisions into Egypt (bear in mind that axis divisions are only assumed to be 70 percent size of British divisions when at full strength)
Royal Navy and desert air force staff officers are more firm in their view that Rommel has 25-33 percent use of Tobruk harbor. Our staff and GHQ believe he would use Toburk for his most critical supplies (fuel and some replacement tanks) because it is 900 miles closer to the fighting than Tripoli; and that his air force can better escort convoys between Crete and Toburk
GHQ confirms Rommel receiving significant air delivered reinforcements, 164th per our observations appears to be an intact line infantry division; more research is being done concerning "6th panzer" to see if Rommel is actually receiving a new tank division, or if these are replacements for his existing divisions. 2nd parachute strength is still being assessed but appears to be ~large brigade~ of elite infantry
Rommel pushing the front so far back enables him to likely make better use of Bengahzi since it is largely out of air attack range
Royal Navy is continuing to have difficult meetings about the fate of Malta, a number of staff officers consider Malta lost now, or at least not worth the potential loss of ships, and aircraft, now that Rommel can bypass it by going athens-crete-tobruk
Most Royal Navy staff officers in GHQ are recommending canceling operation vigorous due to Rommel's looming invasion of Egypt, they advise that their ships for the region are already stretched thin due to local issues here, and diversion of units to Pacific. They are worried that vigorous will take heavy losses now that Rommel's air force, especially his dive bombers can attack from Gambut and Crete against the convoy long before it gets near Malta
Royal Navy staff officers privately advise axis submarines are beginning to relocate from libyan waters to Egyptian waters to harass lines of communication and screen against naval raids on the coastal road
Desert air force staff officers press very hard on Auchinlek to make final decision on defensive lines for Egypt, they agititate heavily against his "alamein" defensive line, advising they had moved many assets to the frontier fields and Matruh, and that using only mobile delaying tactics in most of Egypt would compel another significant redeployment and that many sorties would be lost in the movement, and Tobruk (and the smaller fishing ports on the frontier) would be driven out of most escorted bombing range, increasing the security of Rommel's supply lines
Royal Navy staff officers vigorously oppose the "alamein" defensive line, saying it is past their "red line" for evacuating the fleet, and that the position is within escorted bombing range of the delta fleet anchorage, but at the same time, they also say they cannot support the "matruh" position with resupply in the face of axis air attacks
One Royal Navy senior officer says they will execute rapier on their own authority of Auchinlek lets Rommel reach Alamein position; this lead to heated exchange and our removal from the room
Authority for Rapier is not exactly delegated as far as our staff can tell; we believe final decision is being reserved for London
Rapier is bitterly controversial inside GHQ due to lack of Egyptian consent
Alexandria and the delta are vital to the Egyptian way of life, intelligence officers in GHQ advice rapier would have gravely negative political consequences for British presence in Egypt
GHQ intelligence officers advise there are axis sympathizers inside the Egyptian population and the Egyptian army who will already be emboldened when Rommel crosses the border (and are already thought to be emboldened by the fall of Tobruk) whom would be prone to cause security troubles if rapier is executed
General Smith completely endorses rapier in the event of not being able to hold Rommel from reaching the delta
General Smith advocates armored counter attacks from the south in the event Rommel cannot be held back from the delta
General Smith advocates keeping some fresh deliveries of tanks in reserve around cairo for this purpose instead of sending them to the coastal road to defend the delta
General smith advocates keeping some air squadrons in reserve around cairo for the same prupose
Diversion of air defense assets from the canal to the front lines is causing bitter disagreements between services inside GHQ
Royal Navy officers for first time discuss possible red line closures of the Suez Canal in the event of the axis being able to attack it with escorted dive bombers
Royal Navy staffers confirm all repair work will be stopped when Rommel crosses the border and that all ships will be made ready to sail on 12 hours notice
Royal Navy demands regular motoring time updates between Rommel and the fleet anchorage; this is currently estimated at 30 hours if he was to resume an offensive today over the border, which is likely impossible due to need to consolidate for a number of days
Redlines include not only dive bomber range, but also Rommel reaching 13 hours motoring time to Alexandria in the event of Army defeat or retreat
Several ships under repair which are not ready to steam away from the combat area will instead be used as blocking ships for rapier in the event of Rommel reaching the red lines
Auchinlek is making tours of grounds around Matruh and Alamein tomorrow to assess best defensive practices to withstand the invasion
will send personal observations in next transmission

end transmission
 
I wonder are there any Italian battleships that could do shore bombardment on the line at El Alamein.
if so how far inland could they hit?
 
I wonder are there any Italian battleships that could do shore bombardment on the line at El Alamein.
if so how far inland could they hit?
Probably the inter line (its not that long, thats the point) unfortunately not befor the royal navy comes in and smacs the battleship, or the royal air force I sapose.
 
The Italian navy is so crazy short of fuel, did they ever get to really do much shore bombardment?
 
It had been a good day, the forces of the 50th British and 1st South African divisions had asked for terms after a final round of heavy air attacks this morning; closing out the third of his kessels.
Ok - the timelines jumped the shark ( and I suspect you know it :) )

The forces you assigned to this kessel were at most 10-20% stronger than the defending forces, and 90% Italian. And the experienced British and South African divisions simply surrender, because the narrative needs them to.
 
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If valiant is forced to be canceled what happens to Malta?
this is something I have been shadowing in the background, namely that an earlier, rapid destruction of the 8th army/Rommel capturing all the main air fields in Libya, would made vigorous, and Julius as a whole subject to delay or cancellation, if the fleet anchorage became insecure in Egypt

Malta's food situation without the pair of ships making it from harpoon (gibraltar part of Julius) would become very desperate, there would be voices in the sort of timeline I have created that would agitate to evacuate or surrender Malta in the face of collapse of the 8th army in Egypt

Julius, historically was unknowingly leaked by Fellers and heavily engaged by axis maritime assets; and most of the ships had to turn around and a few where sunk
 
I wonder are there any Italian battleships that could do shore bombardment on the line at El Alamein.
if so how far inland could they hit?
The Italian fleet had been drilled for shore bombardments the previous couple of months preparing for Hercules, under Kesselring's supervision
 
Ok - the timelines jumped the shark ( and I suspect you know it :) )

The forces you assigned to this kessel were at most 10-20% stronger than the defending forces, and 90% Italian. And the experienced British and South African divisions simply surrender, because the narrative needs them to.
The third Kessel collapsing within the timeline, I think stands ok; or is less imaginative than the French box getting bulldozed

150th was defeated before the close encirclement of the remaining troops in the north, very roughly not accounting for losses in the Italian demonstration/pin to the box attacks, it would initially be ~45,000 to ~24,000 with 15th panzer moving up in the second half of the battle making it ~52000 axis troops

these remaining brigades in the north have already been isolated 8 days
I have had the Brescia infantry division penetrate the minefields in between the 2 remaining 50th division boxes and the south africans, so instead of seeing this as 5 brigades defeated in open battle, it is a series of defeats in detail

they are not simply surrendering they fight bravely; hopelessly cut off and surrender in the face of destruction

we have the OTL 150th brigade (50th) and the Natal Regiments (1st South African) to use as historical examples, who where surrounded, subjected to air and ground attack, fought as well as they could under the circumstances, and then where taken prisoner by Rommel

Rommel in my ATL takes his heaviest losses defeating these formations because they where good formations

we should bear in mind the morale dominos that would be plausible in this sort of timeline, ie Tobruk and Knightsbridge in their rear already fell, which would have debilitating effects on morale and make their position appear significantly more hopeless than OTL

casualty ratios in my timeline are effectively the same as OTL, it is just these two divisions are brought to final battle instead of mostly running away
 
150th was defeated before the close encirclement of the remaining troops in the north, very roughly not accounting for losses in the Italian demonstration/pin to the box attacks, it would initially be ~45,000 to ~24,000 with 15th panzer moving up in the second half of the battle making it ~52000 axis troops
Because you are counting the full numbers for the 4 Italian divisions. These start with only 2 regiments of infantry but remember you stripped troops from them to throw into the mobile battles, and the Italian mobile divisions are even weaker in infantry battalions. Then there are the losses these divisions have had in the demonstration battles, and the losses of Trento in 2 hard fought engagements. I can see only a marginal superiority in infantry units. Similarly Italian artillery is weak in numbers and calibre compared to British divisions. They are also short of mobility to carry out your "defeat in detail" plan.

Previous posts only put part of 21st Panzer in a covering position. Now you're throwing in 15th Panzer as well, while both divisions will have been attrited in previous engagements. Your post made it sound like the British surrendered without an assault by them. I think this is unlikely given their previous combat experience and lack of engagement so far.

Collapsing 5 brigade boxes (and the remaining British infantry tanks) will not be quick or easy. In particular you cannot concentrate the Italian infantry to attack individual boxes without leaving gaping gaps elsewhere.
 
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In which case, it is a pyrhic victory. Rommel's forces will be in no state to follow up.
in the sense that Germany was 100% doomed to defeat 9/1/39 and 500% doomed to defeat 6/22/41 and 100000% doomed to defeat 12/7/41 any victory is pyrhic; if Rommel fires a single shell or burns a 1/10th of a liter of gas, its money in the bank to his eventual defeat. His ratio in OTL Gazala and here is ~8:1; and it's still pyrhic

I've been trying off and on to remind readers not to miss the forest for the trees, with the POD being in may, Rommel could take the Delta and have Malta be surrendered and is still doomed to defeat in not much longer of an order than OTL because the hard blocks on axis logistic collapse in the fall are immovable objects; and the introduction of US ground troops in big numbers permanently turns the tables in their battles against the west
 
Because you are counting the full numbers for the 4 Italian divisions. These start with only 2 regiments of infantry but remember you stripped troops from them to throw into the mobile battles, and the Italian mobile divisions are even weaker in infantry battalions. Then there are the losses these divisions have had in the demonstration battles, and the losses of Trento in 2 hard fought engagements. I can see only a marginal superiority in infantry units. Similarly Italian artillery is weak in numbers and calibre compared to British divisions. They are also short of mobility to carry out your "defeat in detail" plan.

Previous posts only put part of 21st Panzer in a covering position. Now you're throwing in 15th Panzer as well, while both divisions will have been attrited in previous engagements. Your post made it sound like the British surrendered without an assault by them. I think this is unlikely given their previous combat experience and lack of engagement so far.

Collapsing 5 brigade boxes (and the remaining British infantry tanks) will not be quick or easy. In particular you cannot concentrate the Italian infantry to attack individual boxes without leaving gaping gaps elsewhere.
its 4 divisions in the front and trento/21st panzer in the back. 45000 troops spread across 6 divisions was my rough number, probably a drop conservative.

British units have been cut off from their main dumps and rail head for 8 days, and the 21st panzer captured local dumps/CCC when it took Arcoma. So in fighting the Italian infantry in the demonstration/pin to the box attacks the northern troops would have been consuming shells that they couldn't easily restock, they would also be victimized by the ATL disruption to the desert air force, leaving their boxes out of most supporting fighter range; which would let Stukas systemically target their strong points and gun positions

Mobility shouldnt generally be an issue 21st panzer maneuvers in my timeline are very close to OTL the only difference being they don't have to keep stopping due to running out of fuel; because their southern supply lines are secure and they feast on stocks captured by 90th light surprise parties on the 8th army main dumps; Trento has only maneuvered 40-50 miles in 8 days

Because the collapse of the 3rd kessel is anti climatic, I didn't go into great detail, but by having Brescia penetrate the minefields, this would let Brescia, Trento and 21st panzer engage the 151 and 69th boxes in detail at force advantage ratios of at least 5:1 and as each box is broken/surrenders displace their infantry companies north to rinse and repeat. 21st panzer is part of the assault, they do rest for 1 day after taking arcoma, and then assist the Italian infantry divisions in assaulting the boxes. 15th panzer a day and a half after the collapse at Tobruk, (which is faster than OTL here due to less troops pushed into the pocket, and the 2nd SA having their OTL conflicting orders and poor placement of vehicle depots and ammo supplies) moves up to reinforce 21st panzer push against the northern boxes

bear in mind the assaults against the northern boxes take place over 3 days and are in the context of them having much worse air cover and a drastically worse strategic picture in their rear areas

Rommel looses a significant amount of Italian infantry in these assaults
 

David Flin

Gone Fishin'
in the sense that Germany was 100% doomed to defeat 9/1/39 and 500% doomed to defeat 6/22/41 and 100000% doomed to defeat 12/7/41 any victory is pyrhic; if Rommel fires a single shell or burns a 1/10th of a liter of gas, its money in the bank to his eventual defeat. His ratio in OTL Gazala and here is ~8:1; and it's still pyrhic

I've been trying off and on to remind readers not to miss the forest for the trees, with the POD being in may, Rommel could take the Delta and have Malta be surrendered and is still doomed to defeat in not much longer of an order than OTL because the hard blocks on axis logistic collapse in the fall are immovable objects; and the introduction of US ground troops in big numbers permanently turns the tables in their battles against the west

The point went thataway.

It's not the long-term or medium-term I'm talking about. It's the short-term.

Hard fighting chews up troops and formations and equipment. What has been developed is a situation where attacking troops are exhausted and equipment is in need of repair and it will take time to get things back together. It's why after a hard fight, there is usually a pause and the troops that were involved get a breather. It's much more exhausting and debilitating to be on the attack than on the defence, so tempo is shifting towards the British.

Maintaining an attack beyond the initial phases needs tempo management, and usually involves three layers (sometimes more, rarely less). Layer 1 makes the initial attack and achieves the initial objectives. They then sit on that objective, resting and holding, while layer 2 moves through to move on to the follow-on objectives, while layer 3 is held ready to support either should there be unexpected difficulties (there will be). The faster the tempo one maintains, the more layers one needs, because exhausted troops thrown into an offensive operation quickly become dead troops.

To take a more modern example, and one in which I suspect I am more familiar with the details than most: June 11/12, 1982. 42 Cdo takes Mt Harriet. In doing so, they take 1 dead and 6 wounded to the extent of being unfit for further action, out of a strength of nigh on 700. 1% casualties. Trivial. And yet we were in no state to launch an attack on the follow-up objective of Mt Tumbledown, that being left to the Scots Guards.

Here, you've been committing large elements of available forces, and this will have consequences. The consequence is that follow-up actions become harder to the point of non-viable.

The German forces, as described to date, now have some very unpalatable options. They attack quickly, with degraded units, hoping to continue to get outrageous luck, and inevitably bounce. Or they wait to build up their strength for the next attack, in a situation where the British are building up their strength faster. Or they make an uneasy compromise, which gets the worst of both worlds. Or they pull back to their start lines and hope to draw the British forward into a killing ground (again).
 
The DAK was hoping for Arab uprisings and with America in the war they knew their time was running short.
 
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