Chapter 12.2
06-04-42 23:59 hrs British 8th army and Middle East HQ Cairo Egypt Reporting back to American President Roosevelt and Joint Chiefs of Staff; Colonel Bonner Fellers, American military attache to MEGHQ
Urgent final update of day and personal observations
Local commander at Knightsbridge requests terms from Axis commanders tonight !
Knightsbridge commander sites large number of wounded among his forces and inability to protect the wounded from air attacks and shelling
Per previous private disclosures, this represents upwards of 20,000 lost soldiers, accounting may take a couple of days due to previously advised unit mixing
Surrender of units at Knightsbridge leaves Gazala troops as only substantial British military formation left in the western desert
GHQ staff officers privately advise that hundreds of vehicles and substantial military equipment will be lost at Knightsbridge
Commonwealth staff officers are furious at the loss of their troops under Ritchie's command, Ritchie to be relieved at 1500 hrs tomorrow
Surrender of Knightsbridge forces frees up axis air force assets to apply additional pressure against Gazala troops
Surrender of Knightsbridge forces frees up Axis motorized/armored formations to apply additional pressure against Gazala troops
Total British losses since Rommel's attack began, at least 50,000 men
Surrender of Knightsbridge forces secures all of Rommel's supply lines south of the coastal road in the western desert
GHQ staff officers privately advise that, beyond a worsened strategic state, collapse at Knightsbridge will have tangible effects on morale and discipline, they advise resistence timetable for Gazala troops reduced, but they do not acknowledge what the window actually is
Our own staff projects Gazala troops holding out no more than another 48 hours, but this may be generous given the collapse of the other pockets; Gazala troops are extremely vulnerable to air attacks
GHQ staff officers privately advise that eventual collapse of Gazala pocket will yield hundreds of vehicles and much army equipment to the axis
I have asked a GHQ staffer to re-assess what supply dumps, where in what spot on May 26th so we can jointly make a more educated projection of what Rommel has taken, especially fuel to make future assessments to his operating range
Our staff now believes Rommel will need 5-7 days to consolidate his army to attack across the border, once the troops at Gazala are consumed, we believe this says more about moving his airforce forward, than losses to his troops. Reports from evacuated troops and private GHQ staff officers disclosures give an impression that except for the heavy fighting going on at Belhamed now, and with some elements of troops at Gazala now, that Rommel has not lost very much; particularly when he has received some replacements this week
We regard Rommel as likely having infantry parity with remaining 8th army forces once Gazala troops are lost; depending on his ability to drive his infantry divisions forward into Egypt
Our staff and GHQ are going to prepare several assessments regarding Rommel's projected tank strength, both as to what it may be now, and what it would be after a 7 day consolidation/repair cycle for his forces. General Smith doesn't want to take axis use of captured British runners into account in these calculations, our staff's assessments will assume Rommel has taken 10 percent of defeated tanks as prizes for his tank crews to put to their use.
Air attache staff is putting together revised assessments for what Rommel could bring to an invasion of Egypt with his airforce
Naval attache staff is working with Royal Navy and Desert Air Force staff officers to reassess Rommel's supply situation, on the pretense that he can operate out of Tobruk with 25% capacity, it is still not exactly known if this is an accurate basis, but it is what the Royal Navy staff is currently using, so we will carry it for now in our estimates
GHQ staff openly admit Rommel has captured major British army fuel supplies, ammunition and vehicle depots and substantial soft stores (food/water/medicines/clothing etc) that he will use to reinvigorate his army and use to propel it into Egypt
We are performing our own study (as is GHQ) to assess different distribution scenarios of Rommel using the many vehicles he has captured fully or "more" motorize his semi motorized Italian infantry divisions, and extrapolate that into our projections of how many divisions he can bring across the border and how quickly they can be moved there
Auchinlek on paper has 4 divisions in Egypt, these are still widely dispersed due to internal security needs in Egypt itself and the need to secure supply lines. More formations are in the pipeline. Auchinlek's current strength on the Egyptian coastal road is very troubling, and the Royal Navy is straining all resources to transfer his formations as quickly as possible
Auchinlek is still reviewing options for defensive positions in Egypt, he advises that although Mersah Matruh was a fortress before the war, that this status was not maintained much the last two years and the works have fallen into disrepair; anti tank ditches in particular are prone to filling in, in Egypt and Libya due to the often swirling currents of the sand.
Auchinlek is unsure if he wants to make a stand at Matruh because the terrain to the south makes it vulnerable to it being flanked and encircled;
Royal Navy Staff Officers advise they cannot support a besieged garrison at Matruh if such a thing where to occur there
Auchinlek also considering mobile delaying actions in most of Egypt; and making a primary stand at positions labeled "El Alamein" about 75 miles from Alexandria itself. This is wildly unpopular with the Royal Navy and Air Force because it brings their primary Delta operating bases in range of escorted German dive bombers; this position does have the advantage, unique for the desert in that there are cliffs and salt lakes about 40 miles to the south, so this would force Rommel into a frontal battle and neutralize his wild maneuvering ability
Our staff is assessing the options but lean towards the Alamein option because Matruh is another potential prisoner pen
Discussions are furious inside GHQ about destroying the rail line in Egypt or risking Rommel using it against them, it had taken months to get it built to Belhamed, destroying it renders eventual reconquest of these areas very difficult and time consuming
Discussions are furious in GHQ about martial law and military curfew in Egypt's large cities
Discussions are furious in GHQ about security lapses both in the field and back in Egypt; Smith plans a major reworking of depots and communications plans for Egyptian defense on the basis that Rommel has captured or is in the process of capturing many secret documents in Libya and has spies in Egypt
Royal Navy staff officers are now more openly pessimistic about the value in trying to resupply Malta now that Rommel may be able to convoy from Crete to Tobruk, they fear significant starvation of the garrison and civilian population
Royal Navy staff officers privately advise they expect heightened activities of axis submarines near their fleet anchorages in Egypt
Per our previous analysis and interviews/feedback from evacuated soldiers, British use of combined arms at all fighting in Libya this week was poor, many attacks where launched piece meal with inadequate intelligence or air recon of Rommel's troop positioning
It is plainly obvious that between lost documents, captured senior officers and other sources of intelligence at Rommel's disposal that he was well prepared for counter attacks and met, them, as we have directly observed with the 29th brigade with his artillery and infantry dug in, in all the right places; as much as the British need to improve their coordination of service branches, they need to stop the operational security lapses
GHQ moods which where boosted yesterday, by the announcement of the USA expeditionary air force, and severely impared by loss of Knightsbridge, even though that position had been generally thought to be hopeless even before freeborne was approved
Impending collapse of Gazala troops weighs heavily on GHQ, Auchinlek is allowing some staffers to leave for periods of sleep
Desert Airforce staff officers privately advise they urgently need Rommel's consolidation period to bring forward more drop tanks and to address escalating fatigue issues among their fighter pilots
Desert Airforce staff officers privately advise that axis pattern of night time harassment bombing of air bases is having debilitating effects on operational readiness because pilots and crew keep waking to go to shelter
German bombers from Crete attacked Alexandria and the Canal zone today, this lead to renewed bitterness between the service chiefs about redeployment of air and other assets from the Canal zone to the front lines
Our own staff has been laboring very much under the increased work load and requires some cycling to address fatigue, I currently intend to give each staff member one day of liberty during Rommel's consolidation to refresh temper and nerve for the challenges ahead
End transmission
