Six-Day War without Jordan

What if Israel was able to successfully negotiate a peace, as well as perhaps a settlement regarding the PLO, with Jordan prior to the Six-Day War? How would the war go then? How would the map have been changed?
 
Aye, how much difference are we talking, plus is this thread purley about the War or further afield, cos apart from the Isrealis caning the Arabs slightly more- not much difference really
 
Such a peace treaty at the time would also put Jordan out in the cold amongst its neighbours. It may even come under attack itself as Jordan would be seen as a traitor. Just look what happened to OTL Egypt when it opened peace talks with Isreal after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The difference was Egypt was a lot bigger than Jordan & not surrounded by potential hostile nations.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
What if Israel was able to successfully negotiate a peace, as well as perhaps a settlement regarding the PLO, with Jordan prior to the Six-Day War? How would the war go then? How would the map have been changed?

You'd need a really, really big POD. I'm reminded of AHP saying that if there was ever a time when Istanbul could have been reconquered it would have been. In the case of King Hussein, if there was ever a time when he could have signed such a peace treaty, he would have signed it. He didn't because frankly he wasn't suicidal. Remember that 60-80% of Jordan's population is Palestinian.
 
But wasn't Israel willing to give away parts of the West Bank? I mean, they were pretty committed to peace with Jordan before the war.

I didn't specify what sort of deal regarding the PLO, because I'm unsure as to what is plausible. My understanding of the war is that it wasn't about the Palestinians so much as that was an excuse used by the Arab nations for their own differing agendas.
 
I think the politics of an immediate post-67 settlement is difficult (Israel got victory disease). A better PoD may be Jordan not joining the Six Day War (a stretch, but possible). If Israel didn't get East Jerusalem and the West Bank there might have been less of a Religious Messianic Zionist thing going down.
 
Once King Hussein accepted an Egyptian officer in command he's going to have an extremely hard time avoiding the war. By the by, it was this Egyptian who, through incompetence or malice, greatly eased Israel's victory over the Arab Legion.
 

CalBear

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You'd need a really, really big POD. I'm reminded of AHP saying that if there was ever a time when Istanbul could have been reconquered it would have been. In the case of King Hussein, if there was ever a time when he could have signed such a peace treaty, he would have signed it. He didn't because frankly he wasn't suicidal. Remember that 60-80% of Jordan's population is Palestinian.

Aren't they really Jordanian? Palestinian isn't a historic nationality, it's a construct that has somehow become a nationality where none ever existed. It dates to roughtly the end WW I and was part of the political mismash arising from the redrawing of the Middle East post Ottoman Empire.
 
Palestine comes from the Roman province of that name. Which in turn comes from a group of people who took over part of Israel named the Philistines (Samson used to beat the crap out of them if you remember your bible stories).

It does not really mater. Every people started by calling themselves something else. Once a generation or 2 calls themselves something it becomes a real identity. Nationalities have little to do with anything real beyond what people choose to group around.
 
I think you might be able to get Israeli-Arab peace under these kind of conditions. The Nixon Administration had just taken power and was intent on somekind of detente with the Soviet Union. Taking the Middle East out of contention and clearly into the Western camp would have been a big coup. So post-6 Day War (sans Jordan) the Americans decide to throw money around the Middle East in exchange for peace.

If this works, then all kinds of ripples have been thrown into history's waters, because if there is Arab-Israeli peace in say '70, you just avoided the Oil Embargo. And if Jordan is uninvolved, then you've also avoided the whole West Bank issue(s), no settlements, no issue over Jerusalem, no water use issues, no fences, etc etc.

The history of the Middle East would be radically, radically changed. Probably for the better.
 

Ibn Warraq

Banned
But wasn't Israel willing to give away parts of the West Bank? I mean, they were pretty committed to peace with Jordan before the war.

I didn't specify what sort of deal regarding the PLO, because I'm unsure as to what is plausible. My understanding of the war is that it wasn't about the Palestinians so much as that was an excuse used by the Arab nations for their own differing agendas.

Israel didn't control the West Bank until after the Six Day War. Prior to the war it was in the hands of Jordan. Keep in mind that King Hussein's predessecor and grandfather, Abdullah, was assassinated for being willing to negotiate with Israel.

Frankly, I don't think Israel could have possibly given him anything that would have justified the risk.
 
Once King Hussein has committed to an alliance, accepted an Egyptian general in command of the Arab Legion and has two battalions of Egyptians on Jordanian soil, how the blazes does he NOT participate in the war without being seen in the entire Arab world as stabbing Nassar in the back?:confused:
 
In the case of King Hussein, if there was ever a time when he could have signed such a peace treaty, he would have signed it. He didn't because frankly he wasn't suicidal.
And he had a good reason to be fearful too. His father was assassinated by and Islamist fanatic.

Aren't they really Jordanian?
There's no real language, cultural, religious or tribal division between Palestinian and Jordanian farming and urban populace. It was a single entity pre-1947. There's division between Jordanian farmers and nomadic bedouins (power base of the Hashemite dynasty).
 
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