Sir John Valentine Carden survives.

[galileo-034]

I have my doubts alt-Crusader could make it all the may to Tripoli, I think another operation will be needed in-between to finally secure Sirte.

I guess so, but even if they retain a fighting force on paper, logistics tell the end.
The escape, the run, happened at the cost, if I read well, of most the equipment of the Italo German forces at Nofilia, not to mention that the following pursuit I suspect by the still fresh division will likely further exacerbate the losses and disorganization of the DAK. On the opposite side, even if exhausted and running thin on ammunition supply and air cover, the British Commonwealth forces remain coherent and can resupply faster.
The question is then, how much time will it take Rommel to recoup the losses and resupply? Or to be more specific, can he do so before the Allies close on Sirte, barely a hundred miles from Nofilia? Here, he would have the Ariete in support of course, but against the whole Allied forces, resupplied, higher on morale and better rested, while his forces are still somewhat in shambles, though I'm not much knowledgeable in the particulars of warfare, this doesn't look good an odd for holding onto Sirte.
Next question then, what's after Sirte at this point?

 

[kelgar04]

More than likely not also need to consider that Africa Korps is going to have troops on the march back dropping like flies due to thirst and the conditions of the desert. I mean he is marching at night which is good but it gets really bloody cold in the nights in the desert thats going to make some of his troops drop.

heck his medics and doctors will be cursing a blue streak.

 

[MarcH]

More than likely not also need to consider that Africa Korps is going to have troops on the march back dropping like flies due to thirst and the conditions of the desert. I mean he is marching at night which is good but it gets really bloody cold in the nights in the desert thats going to make some of his troops drop.

heck his medics and doctors will be cursing a blue streak.

The chances of any serious number of Afrika Korps troops getting back is pretty slim in my mind. For a start they have a total distance of 75-80 miles to contend with if they choose the best path and I doubt that will happen. They haven't had the luxury of a force like the LRDG to go and map this area for them so getting lost and delayed is a possibility. I would think at least two days to make the journey and possibly more. Then add in the extreme conditions of the desert, heat during the day and cold at night and it is getting even worse. I also doubt they have adequate food or water so that will quickly become an issue. Next the British will be chasing, they not only have relatively rested formations but they also have the already mentioned LRDG. I can see the retreat west being harassed and harried every step of the way. That coupled with mechanical breakdowns will create even more issues. Then on top of it you have the need to keep in formation, their is no point in having small groups of Germans wondering the desert, you will loose at least as many if not more to getting lost compared to British rifles.

All in all this is a complete disaster for the Germans and that is before you get to the possibility of the British being able to get a force in front of the Germans line of retreat. Would you put any money on the dregs of the Afrika Korps being able to fight their way through an British Division supported by Valliant's after a couple of days of marching through the desert and being harried by the LRDG, I wouldn't.

 

[Donald Reaver]

The chances of any serious number of Afrika Korps troops getting back is pretty slim in my mind. For a start they have a total distance of 75-80 miles to contend with if they choose the best path and I doubt that will happen. They haven't had the luxury of a force like the LRDG to go and map this area for them so getting lost and delayed is a possibility. I would think at least two days to make the journey and possibly more. Then add in the extreme conditions of the desert, heat during the day and cold at night and it is getting even worse. I also doubt they have adequate food or water so that will quickly become an issue. Next the British will be chasing, they not only have relatively rested formations but they also have the already mentioned LRDG. I can see the retreat west being harassed and harried every step of the way. That coupled with mechanical breakdowns will create even more issues. Then on top of it you have the need to keep in formation, their is no point in having small groups of Germans wondering the desert, you will loose at least as many if not more to getting lost compared to British rifles.

All in all this is a complete disaster for the Germans and that is before you get to the possibility of the British being able to get a force in front of the Germans line of retreat. Would you put any money on the dregs of the Afrika Korps being able to fight their way through an British Division supported by Valliant's after a couple of days of marching through the desert and being harried by the LRDG, I wouldn't.

Hard to hide from the R.A.F. as well, only protection is the Luftwaffe standing guard over them. Lots of leaks will happen as the R.A.F. punches through.

 

[marathag]

IOTL many of the tanks supposedly shot up by 88s in the desert were actally taken out the effective 50mm PaK (and later the 75mm).

And these Italian 90s made by Ansaldo

You have to take into account heat haze. This severely limits visibility, particularly when coupled with mirage effects. Visibility is often limited down to a few hundred metres at most. It makes spotting very difficult in desert conditions.

Have read that Grants were able to engage Infantry and AT positions at over 4000 yards, so sometime the visibility was very good

 

[X Oristos]

As mentioned above, for intents and purposes the DAK is destroyed. The Germans are not expert navigators in the desert, nor supermen to operate with limited water and fuel. Nor they can concentrate any reasonable force, rather than stragglers spread over.

DAK's panzers were involved in actions against multiple opponents: PzI and PzII were somewhat adequate for scouting, They would't be used to attack/fix entrenched enemies or tank columns. And there were only so many PzIII and PzIV available in the whole corps. They must be running out of tanks equipped with anything larger than a 20mm cannon.

The Germans had to sacrifice battalion and even regiment level formations at each fixing point and rear guard action. Basically all the infantry, anti-tank and support units of the corps must have been sacrificed. To extract fighting men from a frontline in a matter of hours is a mighty difficult thing.

At best, only a number of panzers and stragglers from other units remain. Not a fighting force. Most of the tanks would be the less useful than M11/39s (Is and IIs). They cannot hide against the RAF and even the scouts prowling. A retreat at night after fighting multiple enemy formations will result in a lot of units going the wrong direction. The majority of the 7th Armoured has not even been committed and they have more fuel and guides (those uncouth colonials) than the German stragglers.

Rommel just signed either his death warrant or the papers sending him to an australian farm. In my honest opinion, the conditions described in the last update indicate that it is basically over.

 

[David Flin]

The Germans are not expert navigators in the desert, nor supermen to operate with limited water and fuel. Not they can concentrate any reasonable force, rather than stragglers spread over.

Without wishing to comment on the experience or lack thereof of the Germans in navigating the desert, it's not something to be undertaken lightly.

I've seen some of the period maps. Because sand can shift in wind, contour lines become mutable and marking such on a map can be just plain wrong. There's a lot of space without any landmarks. Quite a few maps are simply blank pieces of paper - because there is nothing there that is fixed and won't move around when the wind blows. Navigating without any landmarks is no fun, and if you aren't used to it, nigh on impossible.

Navigating also takes a clear head, thinking carefully. These are people retreating from combat. They're not going to be thinking carefully. Half of those Germans going into the desert are going to stay there, to provide a puzzle for archaeologists in later years wondering what the hell these bleached skeletons were doing here.

 

[MattII]

Without wishing to comment on the experience or lack thereof of the Germans in navigating the desert, it's not something to be undertaken lightly.

I've seen some of the period maps. Because sand can shift in wind, contour lines become mutable and marking such on a map can be just plain wrong. There's a lot of space without any landmarks. Quite a few maps are simply blank pieces of paper - because there is nothing there that is fixed and won't move around when the wind blows. Navigating without any landmarks is no fun, and if you aren't used to it, nigh on impossible.

Navigating also takes a clear head, thinking carefully. These are people retreating from combat. They're not going to be thinking carefully. Half of those Germans going into the desert are going to stay there, to provide a puzzle for archaeologists in later years wondering what the hell these bleached skeletons were doing here.

Or more likely to be rescued, severely dehydrated, a few days later by the British.

 

[David Flin]

Or more likely to be rescued, severely dehydrated, a few days later by the British.

Maybe. Big place, the desert. I'm not sure the British (which includes French, South Africans, New Zealanders, Indians, Australians, etc) will have much time or manpower to spare to scour the desert, so it will largely be Germans coming across British (etc) formations.

 

[MattII]

Maybe. Big place, the desert. I'm not sure the British (which includes French, South Africans, New Zealanders, Indians, Australians, etc) will have much time or manpower to spare to scour the desert, so it will largely be Germans coming across British (etc) formations.

Well once they know the Germans are gone, they'll send out parties to look for them. If they follow tyre- and tread-tracks, they ought to pick up a fair few stragglers over the next few days.

 

[David Flin]

Well once they know the Germans are gone, they'll send out parties to look for them. If they follow tyre- and tread-tracks, they ought to pick up a fair few stragglers over the next few days.

It will depend how long it takes to do the first to know how many of those stragglers will be beyond aid.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Well spotted marathag, I'd forgotten the Italian 90. It's pretty much a copy of the 88.
I'd think at least some of the stragglers would be spotted by aerial patrols in the morning. The smarter ones would probably be trying to attract attention once they realise their situation.

 

[Vhen]

Imagine if the flanking force had arrived at the start point even closer to intact...

 

[MattII]

It will depend how long it takes to do the first to know how many of those stragglers will be beyond aid.

Well they'll know by the next day that the Germans have gone, and eventually they'll find their tracks. Plus I'd expect them to ask the RAF to put up at least a couple of planes to try to track them down.

 

[David Flin]

Well they'll know by the next day that the Germans have gone, and eventually they'll find their tracks. Plus I'd expect them to ask the RAF to put up at least a couple of planes to try to track them down.

It'll be a race against time.

 

[Some Bloke]

This is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, but rather, the end of the beginning.

 

[Rickshaw]

Have read that Grants were able to engage Infantry and AT positions at over 4000 yards, so sometime the visibility was very good

Exception rather than the rule. The best conditions for vision were at dawn and at dusks. Otherwise the vision was limited by heat haze and mirage effects often quite severely.

 

[Icedaemon]

So, some forces lost contact and got lost on the way through the desert, thus weakening the overall British trap enough that they needed to leave a small gap which the Germans could flee through? I would wager that with the heavy maneuvering, fighting battle and hasty refueling, plenty of the panzers which did make it out of the trap would still be somewhere on the wayside. The Afrika Korps might still be a force in being, but I can't see them fighting another major action without serious reinforcements.

 

[MattII]

This is not the end, nor even the beginning of the end, but rather, the end of the beginning.

For the war maybe, but for the North Africa theatre, this is definitely getting towards the end.

 

[X Oristos]

I think I overestimated the number of tanks in the two panzer divisions.

It seems that the Germans started OTL Battleaxe with:

German records show 93 officers and men killed, 350 wounded, and 235 missing. The 8th Panzer Regiment began the battle with about 100 tanks, of which probably 50 were gun tanks; the 5th Panzer Regiment had 96 tanks, of which 57 were gun tanks.5 8th Panzer Regiment had eight tanks destroyed and 5th Panzer Regiment four. The number of German tanks damaged or broken down is uncertain, but was probably about fifty in all, apart from those that were repaired during the three days of the battle. Ten German aircraft were lost.

In TTL, the Germans have suffered more tank casualties in TTL Sonnenblume and Brevity. Significantly more than in OTL. If they had around 107 gun tanks in OTL, I expect them to have fewer in TTL. If indeed they have something like 80-100 gun tanks, then by all means they should have been crushed. Even with TTL british tactical mistakes, the numbers of tanks that will attempt to withdraw south in the desert must be ridiculously small.

There are simply no assets left to avoid the round-up of remaining Germans, Just the uncommitted brigade of 7th Armoured will be orders of magnitude stronger than the german stragglers. Hells, just a singlle armoured regiment along with 11th Hussars would more than suffice to bag them.