The British have taken the decision to halt their advance, and dig in and await their opponents next move. While at one and the same time giving their forces the chance to reorganise, rest, repair and resupply, all of which given the success of their recent campaign they need to do. The original plan had been for a large raid to disrupt the Italian advance into Egypt, and destroy as much of the Italian force as they could. This plan was changed to one where the British would advance as far as they could, causing as much damage as they were able, given the poor condition of their supply base and the size of their force in comparison to the Italian force. What the British hadn’t expected was the totality of their success, they were constantly surprised by just how quickly the Italian forces collapsed. This collapses of the Italians, did ITTL as it did in OTL, cause the British forces numerous problems, especially in supply, maintenance, and dealing with abandoned Italian equipment, plus dealing with the vast numbers of Italian POW’s. However the British ITTL have the advantage that they have achieved their success much sooner than the did, and thus have had more time to sort out their problems. And they have made the decision to call a halt to their advance for the moment, dig in in a defendable position, while they try to sort out the mess behind their front line. This in my opinion is the right thing to do, and will along with the extra time it allows before the Germans can get their act together, enable them to possibly prevent the disaster that happened IOTL, when the Germans attacked.
There are a number of things to take into consideration re the upcoming German attack. The first and most important is who is in command of the German forces. Is it an aggressive thruster like Rommel, who is going to ignore his instructions, throw the dice and try to defeat the British with a sudden uncoordinated attack. Or is it someone who will obey their instructions, dig in themselves while trying to build up their own forces to carry out an attack and drive the British out of Italian North Africa. If it’s a thruster, then he has one chance of getting it right, if he doesn’t succeed in his first attack, then he will have destroyed his chances and a lot of his equipment. And given the better preparation that the British have been able to make, our thruster needs to throw constant series of sixes. If he doesn’t, then the British will be able defeat the attack, destroy a significant amount of equipment, while suffering minimal damage themselves to the now vital infrastructure they are building up. If the British manage to hold their position up to the invasion of Greece, and retain it until the Greek campaign is over, then the Germans in North Africa, have a serious problem. Once the Greek campaign is over including any attack on Crete, the Germans will be very much an after though to the High Command, who are now concentrating on the invasion of the Soviet Union.
With the British established in Benghazi, and not forced to run back east, they have the ability to change their tactics completely. No need to run convoys from Gibraltar to Malta, with all the problems that caused, and the strain it put on the Royal Navy. They can now be run out of Alexandria via Benghazi, which does have problems, it’s a much longer journey from Britain via the Cape. But the level of input required from the Royal Navy, is far less with only major units needed for the last stage. Which in the long run will reduce the number of losses, which will have an effect on the events in the Far East. The other advantage comes from the fact that with Malta getting more supplies, the interdiction of the trans Mediterranean Italian supply line, will reduce the effectiveness of the Italian and German forces in North Africa. And given that it will not be to long before the British have removed the Italians from their position in East Africa, the restrictions that the Americans placed on their shipping, not being able to sail into a war zone, will be lifted.
Ighmas, thank you for the information about the Italian airfields in Rhodes, which I found to be very interesting. However I question just how developed the airfields were, given the poverty of the Italian state at the time. Were they fully developed with hangers, fuel dumps, fuel lines linked to a port, hard standings and all weather runways. Or are they just dusty open fields, with a few sheds and a control tower. Do they have fixed communication links with each other, and any central command position on the island. There is so much more than goes into making for an effective air station than just a flat peace of land. As for the Italian attack on the Bahrain oil fields, great propaganda, especially for the home crowd, but military virtually worthless. Same with the German attacks on the Suez Canal, while the attacks did cause the British some inconvenience, they were in the end minor. But they did divert the Luftwaffe from its principal task, that of supporting the Army in the field, which they didn’t do to the extent that they could.
While the pace of tank development in Britain is now far ahead of what it was IOTL, the tactics of how to use them, hasn’t yet caught up with the improvements made. The is a lot of experimentation, and examining of reports from the North African campaign, to be undertaken now. Britain has developed what might be considered as the first Main Battle Tank, but it is still focused on the theory of different tanks for different roles. It is going to take time for the penny to drop, and the realisation that while its nice to have infantry and cruiser tanks, you can never be sure to have the right tank in place when you want it. And having a general tank that can preform both roles, if not perfectly, is the best option. The essential work on development of SP guns and specialist armoured vehicles has started, and by mid 42 Britain should have the beginnings of a number of successful designs.
Crete and Singapore, might not play out in the way they did IOTL, both were very close run events, and its not going to take a lot to change their outcomes. The presence of a few tanks around the airfields in Crete, being used by experienced crews, will make a major difference. And if Crete is held, while Greece falls, along with the British being able to retain their position west of Benghazi, the dynamics of the war in both North Africa and the Far East, are changed. While there were many failings in Malaya, the biggest was in leadership. And it is here that events in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean will effect events in Malaysia. By mid 1941 IOTL, the British had been driven out of their position east of Benghazi, Tobruk was under siege, O’Conner had been captured, and the British forces kicked out of both Greece and Crete. Wavell was in Churchill’s mind very much a busted flush, and needed to be replaced. Now ITTL, Britain possible, it all depends on how the author decides to play it, Britain has retained its position west of Benghazi, O’Conner is still in command, while Greece has fallen, as was very much expected, Crete has been retained. Wavell while not Winston’s favourite is going to be hard to replace. And odds are is going to be left in overall command of the Middle East. Instead of being replaced and sent out east, worn out and lacking the PM’s confidence.
So the shortage of experienced generals that Britain suffered in mid 1941, and the lack of anyone with the knowledge of modern war to send out east, doesn’t exist. Britain can afford to send some experienced men to Singapore to take charge, and get a grip on the forces out there. Remember IOTL, by the time the Japanese got to Singapore they were basically out of ammunition and supplies, outnumbered by the defenders, and basically bluffed their way to a win. Yes Percival was a deserter as a commander, he just wasn’t up to the task of commanding forces in combat. But it should always be remembered he was a brilliant staff officer, who had laid out the basic plan that the Japanese would follow to invade Malaya. If he can be given a suitable commander, and sidelined to a staff position, while a suitable fighting general, is put in place as commander land forces Malaya, things might be very different. The British only need to hold on to mid 1942, to upset completely the Japanese plan. Tied down in a siege of Singapore, or driven back due to lack of resources to the near the Thailand border. The Japanese effort in Burma is a none starter, there is no threat to India, Australia is covered to an extent, and doesn’t feel so letdown by Britain. And once both the Germans and Italians have been driven out of North Africa, and the major threat that was the Italian Navy, is reduced, Britain will be able to concentrate more resources in the Far East. So who is my dream team to get a grip on the Far East, overall commander Alexandria, ground commander Malaysia Montgomery, with Percival as Chief of Staff to the Commander British Forces Far East.
RR.
