So the campaign in North Africa has gotten of to a good start, and is progressing faster than it did IOTL. But we have to remember that it wasn’t planned to be anything other than a raid originally, thus no plans exist to exploit the success that has been achieved. Nor can we forget that events in North Africa are not happening in isolation, but are part of a much bigger campaign. Middle East Command is responsible for a vast area, stretching from Iran in the East, Palestinian in the North, to Kenya in the South, with Greece and Malta tacked on. Egypt faced threats from three directions, to the North is Syria and Lebanon, under Vichy French control, to the south is Italian East Africa, and to the west is Italian North Africa. And thanks to Italian control of the central Mediterranean, the supply line back to Britain is very long, while the British can source much from the Commonwealth/Empire, anything major has to come around the cape from Britain. This is a Britain that right now is under threat of invasion, and is only now beginning to get its second wind re rearmament.
So let us look at the various threats and how they affect the present campaign. Starting with the threat from the north, which is minor, the truth is the Vichy French can do little on their own. They are a wasting asset, and do have a few problems internally of their own. But they are still a threat and along with the ongoing internal conflict in Palestinian between the Jews and Palestinians cause the British to divert significant forces to deal with the problem. While the majority of Jews stopped their resistance to British rule for the duration, and many volunteered to serve in the British forces. There was a small minority, who saw the distraction caused by the conflict as an opportunity, to achieve their own goal of an independent Israel. And there was those among the Palestinian community, such as the Grand Mufti, who allied themselves with the Germans, who they thought would help them to expel the Jews from Palestinian. All of which was an ongoing headache for the British, which they very much could have done without. And I don’t doubt that the various idiots in Iraq will at some time take into their heads to try to stage a revolution. Which will divert forces from the campaign in North Africa and East Africa, to deal with the problem just at the wrong time.
Italian East Africa, is like the Vichy French Syria a wasting asset, without resupply from Italy they don’t in the long run stand a chance. While they do present a minor threat to the British in Kenya, and the only sea route at present to Egypt, its one that can be dealt with. Once the British have organised their forces in both Sudan and northern Kenya, they will as they did swiftly deal with the threat. And while the RN could do without the added distraction of being forced to convoy all shipping past the Horn of Africa and up the Red Sea. There is no way that the Italian Navel forces in the area can prevent the British convoys from getting through. However eliminating the threat has a hidden advantage, America while the threat existed forbid American ships from sailing into a war zone. This is why the British made this campaign a priority, when they could have just contained the Italians and left the to wither on the vine. And in addition it lowers the strain on the RN, freeing warships to do other things.
Now we get to what is the biggest threat to the British in Egypt and control of the Suez Canal. This is the large Italian force in Libya, which is on paper not only much larger and stronger than the British. But this force suffers from a number of disadvantages in comparison to the British, and truth be told was never in any position to supplant British control. First of there isn’t one army, but four, and they don’t necessarily play well together, and things only got worse once the Germans got involved. You have the local colonial forces, made up of local tribes men of dubious loyalty commanded by Italian officers. Very lightly equipped, and not able to stand up to modern British forces, and kept out of the line, and basically used to police the rear areas. Then you have the Italian Colonial Army, a professional long service force, but again lightly equipped and not mixed into the Italian Army that’s going to have to stand up against the British. Then you have the Italian Army, which is made up of conscripts who may or may not have a commitment to giving their all for the glory of Italy. Remember Italy is still a young nation, and there are still regional issues. This force is always bolstered by the inclusion of Black Shirt units, who also have devisions of their own. And all the Italian officers especially the senior have been picked for their apparent political loyalty.
The entire Italian force labourers under a number of problems, which degraded its efficiency. First is the fact that in comparison to the British, an Italian devision is two thirds the size of the British. Three Italian devisions are equivalent to two British, so one on one, the British always have the advantage. Second despite persistent myths, Italian equipment wasn’t crap, after all they have what many consider to be the best SMG of the war, the British at this time don’t have any. However there was in some areas considerable difference, and in comparison to the British, Italian equipment was deficient. Even in OTL Italian armour was no match for British, and in this TL, is seriously inferior. Thirdly the Italian Army in comparison to the British was static, and lacked the ability to react to the highly mobile British forces. So while large, it could and was/is being reduced in detail, bit by bit. Fourthly the Italians weren’t as well trained as the British, that old pain in the arse Percy Hobart, was like his brother-in-law Monty, a superb trainer of men. The WDF, Western Desert Force, was a fantastic base on which to build the army that will fight Operation Compass, and that force is made up with a large number of pre war regulars. All this makes the task of defeating the Italian force, up until they get German reinforcements comparatively easy.
Malta is a constant thorn in the side of the the Italians, and as long as it is kept in play, it diverts significant Italian effort. Plus it ensures that the Italians can not easily resupply their forces in Libya, and have to expend a major effort to protect their convoys. If the British can get to Benghazi before the Germans intervene, and are prepared, a relief convoy can be run from Alexandria under constant air cover, and replacement aircraft if available flown in. Just sending all the Gloster Gladiators in service with the Desert Airforce at present would be of some help. As long as there are more modern fighters available to replace them with DAF, even the American P40 Warhawk is an improvement. Greece is a subject I will look at in a separate post.
RR.
