What might the post war world look like ITTL, especially in regards to the UK ?
Given just how far this Timeline has diverged from our own, and given how different the UK’s military, economic, industrial positions, will be in the aftermath of the present conflict. If we accept that the vast majority of events in Europe, play out in a basically similar way as they did IOTL, and that there are no major divergences, such as a change of government or the death of either of the Allied leaders, then the underlying situation should remain very similar to that of our Timeline. The one major change could occur in October 44, should the German military attempt to assassinate Hitler succeeded, but I am going to assume that ITTL as in ours it fails. I would expect that first Sicily followed by mainland Italy would be invaded during 1943, with the majority of Italy as far north as Rome, possibly Florence being in Allied hands by the end of the year. While the Soviets will have succeeded in regaining much of their territory, and will be looking to force the Germans of all Soviet territory during 1944. With reduced demand for amphibious equipment, the Anglo Americans should be able to launch their invasion of Europe two months earlier. And with luck and better realisation of just how vital Antwerp is to the invasion effort, have by the end of 44, cleared France, the majority of Italy, Greece and southern Yugoslavia, along with a substantial portion of Holland. Hitler might want to launch an attack in the west, but I seriously doubt Germany will have the resources or capability. Come the new year, the German army will collapse, and the Anglo Americans will sweep through the remainder of Holland, and push into Germany up to its border with Poland. The Germans in Norway, will have either withdrawn to Germany, or surrendered to an Anglo Norwegian invasion force. With Anglo American forces pushing into Austria and Czechoslovak. The war will end as it did with Hitler killing himself, in his bunker in Berlin, and the total surrender of all German forces within days.
For the UK, there can be no question that it will continue the war in the east against the Japanese, and it will within weeks hold a General Election, which unless Winston stands down as the leader of the Conservative Party, Labour will win in a landslide. Should Winston have a moment of sanity, and stand down sighting health reasons, and the Conservatives have a better prepared manifesto, Labour will still win but they might not have such an overwhelming majority. For the porpoises of this post, I am going to go with the result from OTL, and that the new Labour government, has a crushing majority. With Winston and the Conservatives out, but the war in the Far East not yet over, Labour have a number of problems, they can not institute their extensive manifesto commitments, while the war in the East is continuing. They also have to manage the occupation of Germany, and at one and the same time, begin the demobilisation of the forces. The truth is neither the Tory’s, Labour or the British Civil Service, spent the time and intellectual effort needed, on the transition from war, that they had on the transition to war. Admittedly the major mistakes that were made after every previous war, especially the First World War, were to an extent avoided . However that doesn’t mean that a lot were made, as planning for winning a war, takes far more effort than most people realise. A simple example serves to illustrate this, at no time during the war did the British have to ration either bread or potatoes, post war it did have to ration bread, not because there was a shortage of grain, but because there was a world wide shortage of shipping, and a desperate demand to feed people in Europe who were starving. Note this action, along with others contributed to a general feeling of dissatisfaction with the post war Labour government that led to them losing the next election.
So it’s now 1946, and despite the best efforts of the American administration, Truman on news of the Japanese surrender had ordered ships carrying Lend Lease food supplies to turn round at sea, and return to America. An action that he had to countermand swiftly, as the British had threatened to stop all supplies of food and fuel to American forces in the UK, and withdraw the ships from the general pool of shipping. America needed the British ships, especially their liners, such as the two Queens, to ship their troops home. As I have said previously, Anglo American relations can be very complicated at times, especially when the Americans forget that it is often a two way street, and there can be no reaction to their actions. Britain is about to enter a number of post war conferences with the Americans primarily and the other industrial nations, excluding Germany, Italy and Japan. The British are in a stronger position than they were IOTL, in that while they are very much on their uppers, they are not piss poor broke holding a begging bowl. The fact that Britain was somewhat better prepared, especially in armoured vehicles for the conflict, and as a result did better during the Battle of France, and thus wasn’t so desperate after, and so could spare forces for the conflict against Italy in Africa. Plus better results in the Mediterranean and Far East, mean that she hasn’t spent as much of her capital on the war, and by retaining Malaya, Burma, and helping to retain part of the DEI. Not only has she retained valuable resources to sell to America to offset what she receives under Lend Lease, she has also reduced her requirements too. The oil her forces need in the east can come from Burma or the DEI, the rubber goods she needs can be made in Britain with Malay rubber, and the tin that she and the Americans need can come from the Malay tin mines.
If as they should British negotiators can afford to take a firmer position with the Americans post war, and as I have previously mentioned. Get a smaller lone, which has no penalties on early repayment, along with a much better exchange rate Pound to the Dollar, plus no Dollar conversion of old Sterling loans, only on new loans. Which the big boys in the City will soon find themselves a way around, it’s just what they do, being in a lot of cases former barrow boys and real or proto criminals. Then while the UK economy will face many problems and challenges, it should from 1947, enjoy a boom time, and not the series of crises that it faced IOTL. Without the expensive long drawn out withdrawal from Empire, particularly in the East, and a swift clean withdrawal from India, with thanks to the retention of Burma during the war, and the availability of rice, will mean no Bengal famine. Which was very much a stick used by some Indians to rightly beat the British's with given the sheer incompetence of the administration, which failed to heed all the warnings they received. And when relief supplies finally arrived, totally screwed up the distribution, until they eventually called in the army. A stronger Britain will be able to retain better relations with not just India, but also the other former colonies in the East, plus Australia and New Zealand. Which being inside the Sterling area, don’t use American Dollars to trade with the old country. And in most cases would prefer British goods such as cars to American, as not only do they drive on the left, but also their roads are far better sized for European cars. If Britain can get through the final years of the fourties without a serious financial crisis or run on the Pound, and the new Conservative government post the post war Labour government, instead of sitting on its hands, carries out some needed reforms to the nationalised industries, such as breaking them up into more regional units and introducing limited competition. Britain should enjoy a prolonged period of economic growth and prosperity, while it goes through the difficult process of withdrawal from Empire.
RR.