Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
@ArtosStark @kelgar04
As far as I can determine, original timeline de Gaulle did play a part in bringing 'French Equatorial Africa' over to the Allied cause - based on which it seems to me that he likely had some ability in negotiations, at least when dealing with some French ruled places and their administrations.

The basic problem with DeGaul was that the reaction towards him, to use a very British expression, was he was Marmite. You either loved him and saw him as the saviour of France, or loathed him and all he stood for, he was a coward who ran away to take up with Frances traditional enemy, and betrayed the nation. How he would be received in a French colony is very much dependent on what the big men of the colony thought of him, if they were amenable to him and his message, he would be revered with open arms, and his arrival taken as an opportunity to switch sides. However if he wasn’t seen as the saviour, you could as did happen in French Guiana, see the local government prepared to resist with all they had available. The authorities in French Guiana planned to arm the convicts to resist any attempt by the Free French or the British to liberate the colony. In regards to Madagascar we only have to look at what happened IOTL, wear it took the British for a number of reasons over six months to subdue the island.

RR.
 
Hm, the Grant isn't that good as a tank, but what about a SPG? Replace the 37mm turret with a couple of KPVs, and you have a vehicle with a decent close AA punch.
 
@ArtosStark @kelgar04
As far as I can determine, original timeline de Gaulle did play a part in bringing 'French Equatorial Africa' over to the Allied cause - based on which it seems to me that he likely had some ability in negotiations, at least when dealing with some French ruled places and their administrations.
AIUI Madagascar had declared for Vichy in 1940 in spite of de Gaulle’s attempts at negotiation. What’s more The Governor, Armand Annet, actively promoted a pro-Petain cult of personality, persecuted dissidents, removed “dangerous ideas of republicanism” as a part of “combating republican decadence”.

Seems unlikely to be swayed by a direct visit by de Gaulle. Seems more likely to try and arrest him.
 
The Soviets did not mind the Grant tank in OTL and the space inside was only one of the reasons. It is reasonable for tracks to be inadequate for snow because apart from the Soviets who else was seriously planning to fight in 6 ft snow drifts. Norway was just one of many examples of tanks being less than suitable for environment.

THe Soviets had a way of taking what they got and modifying it enough for their purposes and ending up with excellant equipment. I wonder if the Grant can take a 76.2mm in the Casemate?
 
AIUI Madagascar had declared for Vichy in 1940 in spite of de Gaulle’s attempts at negotiation. What’s more The Governor, Armand Annet, actively promoted a pro-Petain cult of personality, persecuted dissidents, removed “dangerous ideas of republicanism” as a part of “combating republican decadence”.

Seems unlikely to be swayed by a direct visit by de Gaulle. Seems more likely to try and arrest him.
Seem like similar things would happen even if Weygand is the one that does this, is it?
IIRC, @Ramp-Rat does suggest that the Madagascar operation is really unnecessary, and pretty sure the reason Jan Smuts is advocating for the takeover of the whole island (while the others are advocating for taking the navy base at Diego-Suarez) is because to avoid Japanese aggression.
Is there any way for Weygand (if the deal does happen) at the very least handle this (and the relationship between the colonies) in a better way than ITTL
 
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TBF is any Operation to take Madagascar going to be nessasary ITTL? The same losses of OTL out east haven't happened so the Japanese are going to struggle ro get anything serious past the Malay Barrier not while Malay and other points are holding.
 
TBF is any Operation to take Madagascar going to be nessasary ITTL? The same losses of OTL out east haven't happened so the Japanese are going to struggle ro get anything serious past the Malay Barrier not while Malay and other points are holding.
Madagascar could be a Rendevous Point for Japanese and German submarines. To swap technical data and small quantities of key goods. Saves the Germans travelling all the way to the Japanese Home Islands. The Vichy government there would allow such visits and maybe help refuel the boats. Not sure it would allow crews some R&R.

Of course, were the Allies to get wind of significant such traffic, controlling the island would move up the priority scale.
 
TBF is any Operation to take Madagascar going to be nessasary ITTL? The same losses of OTL out east haven't happened so the Japanese are going to struggle ro get anything serious past the Malay Barrier not while Malay and other points are holding.
IIRC the OTL mission to capture Madagascar was driven by the fall of Singapore, DEI and barrier locations plus the Indian Ocean raid

So it is probably going to be less of a priority ITTL
 
The Soviets did not mind the Grant tank in OTL and the space inside was only one of the reasons. It is reasonable for tracks to be inadequate for snow because apart from the Soviets who else was seriously planning to fight in 6 ft snow drifts. Norway was just one of many examples of tanks being less than suitable for environment.

I haven't seen a lot on Norway's terrain interwar.

Based on what I have been able to find a majority of transit and transport was a combination of coastal shipping and a few major rail lines which didn't reach all cities.....but "roads" (with the exception of those inside larger cities) were mainly horse paths? In that context, tanks and mechanized forces in general could be used to harden a city or fort, but you were never going to be able send a large armoured unit in a broad sweeping move to counterattack an opposing force - The terrain and lack of wider roads precluded such tactics?
 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
The situation of French Overseas Territories and Colonies ITTL as apposed to ours.

Up until the fall of France in 1940, the various overseas French possessions, continued to operate under the umbrella of the Anglo French maritime dominance. They were free to trade with other nations neutral and allied only subject to the regulations that France mandated, and that would have included trade with Italy and Japan. Once France had fallen and the Vichy regime established, things became very different, and were now much dependent on where in the world they were. FNA, was able with difficulty to transport goods across the Mediterranean to Metropolitan France, Italy and Spain, however these movements were reliant on Italian cooperation, to protect against the RN. The French Levant was in a different position, while it could trade with Turkey across the land border and via coastal shipping, it was effectively cut off from the homeland and the rest of the world. For all the other French possessions they were now basically up shit creek without a paddle. The British Empire effectively controlled the Oceans of the world, and other than local fishing vessels and coastal trading, they weren’t able to move upon the high seas. They were able to maintain a semblance of independence and hope until the Anglo American invasion of FNA and the German occupation of Vichy, after this event only the most stubborn thought that other than declaring for the Free French was a viable option.

Let us look at a number of French overseas territories, and the options available to them in both TTL and ours. French Polynesia is a large collection of islands in the Pacific, basically surrounded by British and American possessions, it is and was reliant on imports for everything other then the most basic goods, it in both time lines had two choices in the summer of 1940, do a deal with the British or starve. And this was the situation for the overwhelming majority of French possessions. You want anything other then the most basic food stuff you need to import it, and you were only going to be able to do so with British permission. Madagascar can not trade with neutral Portuguese Mozambique without British permission, as not only are the British able to intersect any shipping between the two countries, they can also restrict Mozambican imports to prevent transshipment to Madagascar. The large French Fleet mored in the Caribbean island of Martinique was a slowly wasting asset, without substantial oil imports and regular spares, plus a dockyard capable of conducting refits, the fleet was slowly rotting away at its moorings. By mid 1943 IOTL and mid 1942 ITTL, the choice was simple, stick with Vichy and become more and more impoverished, or switch sides and benefit from the Anglo American success. Only the most stupid and stubborn, would stick with Vichy, and in most cases they are going to find themselves overthrown by elements inside their nation. I would expect that by the end of 1943, every French overseas territory will have either switched their allegiance, or seen their administration overthrown and replaced with a pro Free French regime. Note other than the Baltic and Black Seas, along with a limited area around Japan. Nothing moves on the High Seas without permission from the Anglo American Navies. Every major port has a British or American Port Captain, to whom you apply for permission to sail, and to whom you have to give details of your cargo, destination and route.

RR.
 
The basic problem with DeGaul was that the reaction towards him, to use a very British expression, was he was Marmite. You either loved him and saw him as the saviour of France, or loathed him and all he stood for, he was a coward who ran away to take up with Frances traditional enemy, and betrayed the nation. How he would be received in a French colony is very much dependent on what the big men of the colony thought of him, if they were amenable to him and his message, he would be revered with open arms, and his arrival taken as an opportunity to switch sides. However if he wasn’t seen as the saviour, you could as did happen in French Guiana, see the local government prepared to resist with all they had available. The authorities in French Guiana planned to arm the convicts to resist any attempt by the Free French or the British to liberate the colony. In regards to Madagascar we only have to look at what happened IOTL, wear it took the British for a number of reasons over six months to subdue the island.

RR.
Well Madagascar is going to be possible problem which needs military action or someone from Vichy France to resolve at some point then... Lower priority maybe than in the Original Timeline, but someone's going to want to tidy it up at some point.
 

Garrison

Donor
I suspect greater success for the Allies in the Pacific will make it easier to deal with places like Madagascar, even assuming the Germans don't get twitchy and launch Case Anton earlier.
 
I suspect greater success for the Allies in the Pacific will make it easier to deal with places like Madagascar, even assuming the Germans don't get twitchy and launch Case Anton earlier.
They may given the way the British are courting French North Africa, the puppet goverment in Vichy is fast losing its usefulness to the German Reich.
 
I suspect greater success for the Allies in the Pacific will make it easier to deal with places like Madagascar, even assuming the Germans don't get twitchy and launch Case Anton earlier.

Even just the intimidation factor. If more resources available for Allies to bring a big stick, then potential opponents are going to recognize their greater vulnerability.
 
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Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
Does the Vichy government ITTL and ours serve a useful purpose, to which I would answer yes in both cases. Was uncle Adolf right to throw the hissy fit he did after Operation Touch, and order Case Anton, to which I would answer no. The principal reason for the establishment of the Vichy state was to reduce the number of garrison troops required to police France. By establishing a friendly government that was as anti communist and anti semitic as the Nazis were, and was willing to cooperate in stripping France of its valuables. Greatly reduced the burden on the German Army and the German economy, as the Vichy regime not only had to pay for its own administration but also reparations to Germany. The principal effect of occupying Vichy was to increase the number of troops needed to police the French nation, and reduce the take from the region. While making the German occupation even more unpopular than it already was, and the German occupation was very unpopular already. The Germans had a singular ability to make themselves very unpopular in the majority of countries that they occupied. As they never seemed to take the path that would mitigate to some extent their occupation, and thus managed to drive even those who would have just kept their heads down, into active opposition. If ITTL the Germans decide to dissolve the Vichy regime much earlier than they did in ours, and occupy Vichy, it will make it much easier for the Anglo Americans to entice the French overseas territories to enter the Allied cause.

RR.
 
18 February 1942. Kuala Kangsar, Malaya.
18 February 1942. Kuala Kangsar, Malaya.

7th Bn Royal Tank Regiment would have more names of battles to add to the Colours once the war was over. Their engagement at Arras in France in 1940, and now in Malaya would be added to Cambrai and all the others. Starting out with the full allocation of 58 Matilda IIs tanks, supporting 18th Division, the fighting had cost the infantry and the tanks serious casualties.

By the time that D Squadron reached Kuala Kangsar, only ten of the 18 tanks they had begun the battle with had survived intact. Some of the tanks that had been lost might be recoverable, but eighteen men were killed, and six who had managed to escape their tanks were wounded. Major Tom Craig, Squadron OC, called together the surviving tank commanders to brief them on the next phase of operations. He, like his men were dog-tired, filthy and sick to the stomach of what the Japanese had done.

The Australian 8 Division’s spearhead were up around Butterworth, almost 50 miles ahead. The Australians were planning an attack over the Muda River. 18th Division, less 55th Infantry Brigade, were chasing the Japanese up the trail towards Grik, D Squadron would move up the trail to support the infantry. Craig knew exactly the feelings that were voiced by his tank commanders. All the tanks needed some serious maintenance, and the men needed rest. To drive their tanks fifty miles over terrible terrain would pretty much wear out what was left off the tracks, and there was the real danger that by the time the Squadron reached Grik, it would likely be not much more than a troop of available tanks.

Lt-Col Jock Holden (CO 7th Bn RTR) arrived in his scout car just at that moment. He had thoughtfully brought a good supply of packets of cigarettes and assured him that one of the lorries coming up with supplies had bottles of beer for all the men. When Craig reported the state of the Squadron, Holden was sympathetic, but unable to change the orders. Information from Malaya Command was that Japanese reinforcements had been arriving in Thailand and that there was a battle going on near the Burma/Thailand border. General Auchinleck had urged Lieutenant-General Percival to keep up the momentum of the attack. 6 and 8 Australian Divisions were going to be doing most of the attacking up the main road and rail line, but 18th Division, with 7th Bn RTR, were needed to keep up the pressure on the retreating Japanese forces.

Holden noted that A Squadron were at the forefront of the chase, but they were just about at the end of their tether. B Squadron were about to take over from them, and then D Squadron would have their turn as the vanguard. The Regimental HQ, with the Light Aid Detachments, were working hard to collect the damaged and destroyed tanks, which would be sent back down to the RAC Depot. The Royal Engineers had been doing their best to help the tanks move up the trail, so that the first thirty miles the going was described as ‘good to soft’, and after that ‘pretty hairy’.

Once Holden was on his way, Major Craig tried to sort out the priorities. With only ten tanks, and since it was likely that they would have to move in single file, he worked out an order of march. Breakdowns or going off road had to be accounted for, and each troop leader was responsible getting their three tanks to the rendezvous. Until the resupply lorries arrived, the crews would get as much rest as they could. They would be busy then, and it was important to get underway as soon as everyone had everything that they needed. He gave strict instructions that one bottle of beer for each man had to be kept to, he didn’t want anyone up on charges for being drunk or disorderly.

The expectation was that the tanks would progress at not much more than walking pace, so the 30 miles to the rendezvous might well take a full day’s travel, not allowing for delays and accidents.
 

Garrison

Donor
Lets be honest even 10 battered, exhausted Matilda IIs are going to be a major obstacle for the Japanese, if not quite an immovable object.
 
So another update has arrived. So let see how far does the Commonwealth counter-offensive had been progressed.
The Australian 8 Division’s spearhead were up around Butterworth, almost 50 miles ahead. The Australians were planning an attack over the Muda River.
So they had retaken Butterworth, and considering their current plans, I am not yet sure if they had retaken the Butterworth Air Base, and more importantly the island itself as I will mentioned later in this post, but I am definitely sure at the very least had is currently on the south side of the similarly wide Perai River.

This does mean that they at the very least now had retaken the jetty and railway station at Prai which in turn, provide an opportunity for resources in Malaya that needed to be shipped toward destination west of the Malacca Straits (and vice versa) to be transported via Penang instead of having to do a (admittedly short) detour via Singapore, and they could done some upgrades around this area to facilitate more shipping. By this point, most of the operation of the port of Penang is still on the island, with all of the port operations only being moved to Perai-Butterworth area in 1974 IOTL (after the extension of the railway across the river being completed in 1967 and the revocation of the free port status in 1969).

Since I do not know any of the British military plan in regards to the usage of the bases around Malaya, I do not know if there are any short-term changes in this particular area ITTL. In the long term, whether the stronger British position in regards to Malaya would prevent the revocation of the free port status remained to be seen, although the daily life of the locals would definitely be different ITTL. This is shown in the short term, in particular, a Chinese man's English language teaching career would have a shorter disruption period than IOTL, while a Malay teenager would not be accidently be recruited by a Japanese navy school, and the life trajectories of these two in particular, and the Penang population (especially for some several thousands of Chinese) in general will be affected by the Japanese retreat in the short and long term.
 
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Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
There is no question that the events of this Time Line have diverged significantly from those of ours. Such that people who died in ours are living, while people that lived if only for a few days more than they did IOTL, have died. So a man who managed to father a child IOTL, didn’t get the opportunity ITTL, while a man who failed to produce a child, during those few extra days of life managed to produce a child. Women who were forced by the death of their partner, to ether raise a child without a father, or remarried another man, get to live out their lives with the man who was the father of their child and possibly have others of his subsequently. And these are just some of the smallest examples, the major changes such as the earlier ending of the campaign in North Africa, and the failure of the Japanese to capture Malaya, Singapore, Burma, etc. Are going to have significant consequences for the post war world, especially the relationship between the British and Americans. As as has been said by others, no Japanese capture of Burma, essentially means no Bengal famine, which will effect the post war settlement of Indian independence. Without the total loss of prestige suffered by the French in North Africa, and the supplanting of French rule by the Anglo Americans after operation Touch, the Algerian independence movement is going to take a very different path.

Spain, which was up until mid 1943, a reluctance supporter of Germany, Franco wasn’t a fascist or an antisemitic, and had a very low opinion of Hitler, he was however a nationalist and a clever man. Franco having looked at the events in the Mediterranean, and reliant on America for the food to feed his nation, and Britain for permission to import that food. Is once he has used German to eliminate some of his hard right opponents, via sending them to die in Russia fighting communism in the Blue Devision. He being the realist that he was, is slowly going to change his position and try to develop a much better relationship with the Americans and British. Much the same can be said of Turkey, which was mostly pro allies thanks to the legacy of Kimmel Ataturk, had once Greece had been overrun by the Italians and Germans, had to walk a very fine line between the allies and the axis powers. Will once the French Levant swaps sides, and with the Soviet Union on its boarder, begin to align itself more and more with the allies. In the Far East, the failure of the Japanese to capture Burma, Malaysia and the DEI’s, means no Burma railway. And no Burma railway means that along with the hundreds of thousands of locals forced to help build it, and die in the process. The locals will not see thousands of European troops and civilians subjected to doing meanly labour under the Japanese lash. Without the subjection of the European masters, by fellow asians, the myth of European superiority will not be shattered in the way was. And the process of decolonisation will be slower than it was IOTL, I would expect Indonesia to remain a Dutch colony until the mid fifties at least. And it’s independence to possibly take a different form, with the individual islands having more autonomy than they did.

There is no question that a number of prominent individuals from OTL, will follow a different path ITTL, some will be killed, while others will be remembered for totally different achievements. Others who never gained promidnentance IOTL, ether because they didn’t live long enough to achieve what they achieved IOTL, or because they were never in the place or situation for their abilities to be noticed, will achieve greatness. The son/daughter of a man/woman who died before they could be created, will be born and go on to achieve a greatness that another would never achieve IOTL. Books will be written that have a profound impact on literature that were never written, plays, films, music and dance crazes will all come into being that never existed. IE, the Australian doctor who discovered the link between bacteria and stomach ulcers, might be a female doctor in Greece, or an Indian doctor in Calcutta . Nor is it written that Watson and Crick, will be the ones to discover the double helix of DNA. The Americans might fail to remove/steal the papers of the British team that assisted in the Manhattan Project, and these papers along with a Britain that is stronger financially post war, could instead of the Soviets be the second nation to detonate a nuclear bomb. The post war world while basically similar to ours, will be very different in its particulars, names that we have never heard of will become prominent, while names that are prominent to us, will be just a line on the census.

RR.
 
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