Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Thinking about the thread so far. Africa is expected to be shortly cleared in the medium term. This is a point at which there is no vital place to engage Germany and Italy and the logistic train of the moment can only support so many divisions if some landing were made in the Mediterranean area.

Once the Japanese begin their operations a major POD could be a decision to move the current main expeditionary effort to opposing and clearing the Japanese from SE Asia before returning to mainland Europe.

The issue with that is twofold. First of all the British Army is well aware that the SE Asia theatre will require a very different doctrine and equipment set to operations in Europe and therefore will want to be building up the British Army of Liberation in the European theatre with lots of tanks and heavy gear while separately having an Imperial force fighting a much more logistically and terrain constrained fight in the Far East. Secondly advancing through Thailand and Indochina is a very long way across very difficult terrain while attempting an island hoping campaign from South to North requires a Royal Navy commitment that simply isn't possible as long as the Germans have battleships lurking in Fjords and the Italians have ships in their northern ports.
 
OK lets assume for a moment that Force Z survives in relatively good shape and Malaya holds. How long before certain elements in the US start making noise about how the British are letting OUR BOYS STARVE in the Philippines and doing nothing to help them. Why is this powerful fleet sitting in Singapore drinking Gin Slings rather than RESCUE OUR BOYS? Why is Britain obviously prepared to FIGHT TO THE LAST AMERICAN to save THEIR COLONIES?
"Sorry chaps, we’re a bit busy stopping the Japanese right now, but rest assured we'll try to help when we have a free moment. Toodle pip."

You can't take Sumatra without taking Malaya and you could attack Java but it would be high risk and leave your supply lines exposed. Now this is the Japanese so they have form for "high risk attack with unsecured supply lines" but still.
Well they could try to go for Sumatra after (if) they take Java.

There's no good options. If these troops arrive, and considering the scale of the proposed reinforcements I think at last some are going to get diverted and Japanese get an accurate picture they are going to have to reconsider and at that point the choice is between bad (ignore Malaya) and worse (attack Malaya and get stomped).
Ignore Borneo and Java until Malaya is secure? That allows them to divert those troops.

The real question is if someone in Britain looks at how many good toops they have in the region and decides that they can protect more than just Malaya by for example dispatching a Division to Borneo or scattering some brigades across the DEI.
That's always a risk.

The Empire is going to struggle to keep Singapore supplied let alone Corrigedor. Singapore is an island and Siam is hostile. The Northern end of the Malay Peninsula is a war zone anyway.
It is important to remember that the RN expected even a fully developed Singapore to fall. It existed to provide a few months to get a fleet out East. Otherwise it is just another Malta scenario
If they don't take Malaya immediately, they'll have to surround it, by taking Java and then Sumatra, which won't be easy.

The issue with that is twofold. First of all the British Army is well aware that the SE Asia theatre will require a very different doctrine and equipment set to operations in Europe and therefore will want to be building up the British Army of Liberation in the European theatre with lots of tanks and heavy gear while separately having an Imperial force fighting a much more logistically and terrain constrained fight in the Far East. Secondly advancing through Thailand and Indochina is a very long way across very difficult terrain while attempting an island hoping campaign from South to North requires a Royal Navy commitment that simply isn't possible as long as the Germans have battleships lurking in Fjords and the Italians have ships in their northern ports.
Remember however that Britain doesn't only have territory in Malaya, but also Burma, which is much closer to the main part of Thailand. Also, a good portion of the RN contribution will be not from surface units, but the silent service.
 
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OK lets assume for a moment that Force Z survives in relatively good shape and Malaya holds. How long before certain elements in the US start making noise about how the British are letting OUR BOYS STARVE in the Philippines and doing nothing to help them. Why is this powerful fleet sitting in Singapore drinking Gin Slings rather than RESCUE OUR BOYS? Why is Britain obviously prepared to FIGHT TO THE LAST AMERICAN to save THEIR COLONIES?

Ok we can look at this but to do this properly there will have to be a unified command - and the Brits will need to control it...........
 
Ok we can look at this but to do this properly there will have to be a unified command - and the Brits will need to control it...........
Well I suspect ABDACOM will stick around a bit longer here. After all, NORGROUP and WESGROUP are almost certainly secure, and CENGROUP and DARWIN are going to be much tougher for the Japanese.
 
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I think @dmg86 meant a British invasion from Burma through Thailand and into Indochina and the logistics on the British side of the border are pretty weak but given time and motivation could be improved.
 
I think @dmg86 meant a British invasion from Burma through Thailand and into Indochina and the logistics on the British side of the border are pretty weak but given time and motivation could be improved.
Well the Japanese won't be pushing in, so there should definitely be time to improve the logistics.
 
Well they could try to go for Sumatra after (if) they take Java.

If they don't take Malaya immediately, they'll have to surround it, by taking Java and then Sumatra, which won't be easy.

I'm not saying this is impossible but with the sort of forces Britain will have in theatre they need to be drinking quite a lot of lead paint to let the Japanese do this.

Well the Japanese won't be pushing in, so there should definitely be time to improve the logistics.

As you need to ship everything in anyway you might as well ignore Burma and invade from Malaya. OK you have to attack up an isthmus but that's actually easier on your seaborne logistics.
 
I'm not saying this is impossible but with the sort of forces Britain will have in theatre they need to be drinking quite a lot of lead paint to let the Japanese do this.
Japan's submarine force is one of the few really comparable (to its European counterparts) branches, so trying anything too aggressive will likely be a costly proposition.

As you need to ship everything in anyway you might as well ignore Burma and invade from Malaya. OK you have to attack up an isthmus but that's actually easier on your seaborne logistics.
Rangoon is closer and safer. At the very least you'll want to base some serious air power at Rangoon.
 
If most of Burma holds, the pro-Chinese lobbies in the USA may well be pushing for as much material as the Burma Road can take to be spammed through Rangoon and up the Burma Road to Chiang/Jiang. (Of course material has to be gotten to Rangoon in the first place, which may be problematic in terms of shipping from the USA if Suez/the Mediterranean are still closed and there is war in the Dutch East Indies; although maybe USA companies could set up manufacturing in India...)
 
Japan's submarine force is one of the few really comparable (to its European counterparts) branches, so trying anything too aggressive will likely be a costly proposition.

With Singapore shielding Sumatra's northern flank it doesn't take aggression to sit on Sumatra or Belitung and use subs and long range airpower to interdict Japanese efforts going South across the Java Sea. You meanwhile can supply your troops fighting the IJA on Java from the Indian Ocean side. Also the Japanese sub arm wasn't interested in convoy raiding, they were focused on hunting fleet units.

Rangoon is closer and safer. At the very least you'll want to base some serious air power at Rangoon.

Air power definitely but the Burmese/Thai border to the east is dense jungle. If you take a British approach to logistics (i.e. they're important) it's easier to go north from Malaya rather than cut paths through that.
 
If most of Burma holds, the pro-Chinese lobbies in the USA may well be pushing for as much material as the Burma Road can take to be spammed through Rangoon and up the Burma Road to Chiang/Jiang. (Of course material has to be gotten to Rangoon in the first place, which may be problematic in terms of shipping from the USA if Suez/the Mediterranean are still closed and there is war in the Dutch East Indies; although maybe USA companies could set up manufacturing in India...)
Head south around Australia would seem to be the easiest way.

With Singapore shielding Sumatra's northern flank it doesn't take aggression to sit on Sumatra or Belitung and use subs and long range airpower to interdict Japanese efforts going South across the Java Sea. You meanwhile can supply your troops fighting the IJA on Java from the Indian Ocean side. Also the Japanese sub arm wasn't interested in convoy raiding, they were focused on hunting fleet units.
Still not a perfect defence, since you don't really have any long-range fighters.

Air power definitely but the Burmese/Thai border to the east is dense jungle. If you take a British approach to logistics (i.e. they're important) it's easier to go north from Malaya rather than cut paths through that.
I doubt a major attack is feasible, but commando raids should be doable, and would surely tie up at least some Japanese force.
 
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As long as they can keep the Japanese behind the Sittang river barrier, then the Japanese are screwed.

With the port facilities of Rangoon and the rail line to the Burma Road intact, the China Lobby in the US should ensure that US will support the Empire forces to a significant level in the Far East.
 
Hm, I wonder if it might be worth launching some nuisance air-raids from Burma to try to provoke the Japanese to launch counter-raids into Burma, specifically to draw heat from Malaya?
 
Hm, I wonder if it might be worth launching some nuisance air-raids from Burma to try to provoke the Japanese to launch counter-raids into Burma, specifically to draw heat from Malaya?
Not sure if that would be a good idea since airframes have to be dragged from the UK or Canada to the far east right now unless Australia has expanded their ability and can produce Hurricanes.
 
I think lot of this speculation is a little pointless here.
Afterall this is a time line about British tank development.....the rest is rather vague grand history that sort of happens.
Tank development is not going to be pushed by fighting in areas where they cant deploy tanks.... its going to be influenced by those tanks deployed in Malya and by those tanks that reinforce or replace them.
Naval ships streaking off to supply some dug in Americans is perhaps a nice sentance or so but of no real significance to the premise here.
 
I think lot of this speculation is a little pointless here.
Afterall this is a time line about British tank development.....the rest is rather vague grand history that sort of happens.
Tank development is not going to be pushed by fighting in areas where they cant deploy tanks.... its going to be influenced by those tanks deployed in Malya and by those tanks that reinforce or replace them.
Naval ships streaking off to supply some dug in Americans is perhaps a nice sentance or so but of no real significance to the premise here.
And probably not happening anyway. There's a lot of things a lot closer to home that can be usefully done, like sinking Japanese ships in and around Borneo and Java.
 
I think lot of this speculation is a little pointless here.
Afterall this is a time line about British tank development.....the rest is rather vague grand history that sort of happens.
Tank development is not going to be pushed by fighting in areas where they cant deploy tanks.... its going to be influenced by those tanks deployed in Malya and by those tanks that reinforce or replace them.
Naval ships streaking off to supply some dug in Americans is perhaps a nice sentance or so but of no real significance to the premise here.
Unfortunately it takes about 2 years to design & build a new tank & a lot of other things will happen during that time, especially during a war.
If @allanpcameron just posted tank updates this would be a lot shorter with things like -
- 1938 Vickers receive a new tank specification
- several posts on design decisions
- oh, by the way Germany invaded Poland
Etc.
😁
 
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