with all the changes, i wonder if the butterflies impacted the fate of Richard Sorge
Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
Japan grabbed French Indochina (Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia all rolled into one).
Then nothing has changed to stop the US imposing it's embargo and encouraging Britain and the Dutch to do the same. That is the trigger for the Japanese move south and I don't see that enough has changed to prevent it.
Except that, with Britain being in a stronger position, they don't have to follow the American lead on the embargo.
Britain's better off militarily but finances are still a huge issue, they can't afford to annoy the US too much.
I don't think it's fair to say the Empire didn't rate Japan as a threat - there were attempts to reinforce threatened areas.
It was just that the air-naval war zone of the Atlantic and Britain, and the all arms war zone of North Africa, took priority over the potential warzone of South East Asia.
The plans and assumptions sometimes underestimated Japanese capabilities; but in more cases they either weren't lived up to (e.g. Malaya having significantly less force deployed, of a lower quality, than the defence plan called for) or were undercut by events (e.g. Malaya again, French Indochina being Japanese before the war started would have been a pretty out there assumption to make pre 1940, and since 1940 Britain had been pretty busy)
It was just that the air-naval war zone of the Atlantic and Britain, and the all arms war zone of North Africa, took priority over the potential warzone of South East Asia.
The plans and assumptions sometimes underestimated Japanese capabilities; but in more cases they either weren't lived up to (e.g. Malaya having significantly less force deployed, of a lower quality, than the defence plan called for) or were undercut by events (e.g. Malaya again, French Indochina being Japanese before the war started would have been a pretty out there assumption to make pre 1940, and since 1940 Britain had been pretty busy)
Japanese army has its strength and weaknesses it can move rapidly and hit very hard which they used to their advantage in the far east which can be seen by how quickly they cut a swathe through china and how OTL they took Burma, Malaysia, Hong Kong, the Dutch Colonies and the Philippines.
However their biggest issues exist in terms of logistics, thinking and equipment, I mean their logistics are a mess the army very much depends on living off what they take in an offensive so if you stonewall their intial attacks unless they have secure line to supply from them they will suffer same with production you don‘t see much uptick from Japan after they entre the conflict don’t really see a surge in production due to the fact that they just picked a fight with the British Empire and the industrial Jugernaught of the United States indeed it stays remarkably the same throughout the war and gets worst when the USAAF starts bombing.
Japan when I refer to thinking I mean that the Japanese have the tendency to gut themselves they don’t cycle back experienced personnel to train the next generation you saw it with both the Army and Navy Air force their experienced manpower got gutted and you saw diminishing returns on the new pilots as that skill was lost heck you saw it throughout the war when they were forced to recruit volunteers from the great co-prosperity sphere as they started bleeding manpower with the first being from their puppets in Manchuria.
Finally you have their equipment which ties back into logistics they had very good kit at the entry but it didn’t change or improve throughout you can see this with how the Ariska rifles quality degraded throughout the war and the fact their airframes didn’t really advanced the Zero was a terrifying mid to high teir fighter at the start but it didn’t really change and was soon out classed.
You see a lot of what I said come to a head in the lead up and at the Battle of the Admin Box OTL where the Spitfires beat the snot out of the Japanese airforce and when stopped the Japanese struggled since they didn’t have an answer other than a few mountain guns to the tanks the Allies had.
However their biggest issues exist in terms of logistics, thinking and equipment, I mean their logistics are a mess the army very much depends on living off what they take in an offensive so if you stonewall their intial attacks unless they have secure line to supply from them they will suffer same with production you don‘t see much uptick from Japan after they entre the conflict don’t really see a surge in production due to the fact that they just picked a fight with the British Empire and the industrial Jugernaught of the United States indeed it stays remarkably the same throughout the war and gets worst when the USAAF starts bombing.
Japan when I refer to thinking I mean that the Japanese have the tendency to gut themselves they don’t cycle back experienced personnel to train the next generation you saw it with both the Army and Navy Air force their experienced manpower got gutted and you saw diminishing returns on the new pilots as that skill was lost heck you saw it throughout the war when they were forced to recruit volunteers from the great co-prosperity sphere as they started bleeding manpower with the first being from their puppets in Manchuria.
Finally you have their equipment which ties back into logistics they had very good kit at the entry but it didn’t change or improve throughout you can see this with how the Ariska rifles quality degraded throughout the war and the fact their airframes didn’t really advanced the Zero was a terrifying mid to high teir fighter at the start but it didn’t really change and was soon out classed.
You see a lot of what I said come to a head in the lead up and at the Battle of the Admin Box OTL where the Spitfires beat the snot out of the Japanese airforce and when stopped the Japanese struggled since they didn’t have an answer other than a few mountain guns to the tanks the Allies had.
I am not so sure about it. Malaya Command was accutely aware of its needs. In April 1940, Bond wanted to have 40 battalions and 2 tank regiments. In August 1941, Percival increased the needed garrison to 48 battalions and multiple other units. Easier time in North Africa would mean that more units are sent east. Even since the Interwar, British policy-makers were aware that Singapore lies far away and that it needed to hold long enough for the bulk of the fleet to arrive. Moreover, beyond the strictly military aspect, the British were accutely aware that for political reasons the Malay Barrier must look strong enough in the eyes of Canberra and Batavia.
So what are the next moves if Tripoli falls within the next few months (end of Battleaxe plus next ops)
Just wondered how many of the A9,A10, A11 and A13 and light VI are left at this time.
- Rhodes. The forces are already in the area and just delayed by the fall of Greece. With Crete safe and the retrained Greek force this will be happening in Aug-Sep 41. As the 50k+ cadets plus saved Greek divisions are back up I can see they being used to slowly move up the island chain. This means the Greek navy needing coastal forces to support so maybe LL orders from the states of PT and DE.
- FNA. This will depend on how the Vichy will react. Either a quick fall or 8th army pushing foward and being the focus for rest of 41.
- Sicily/Norway - The main issue here is lack of LST, LSI and the rest. Chance more for Sicily later in 42 as LCT can be used in the Med and not off Norway.
- Dieppe Raid(s) - Hopefully with HMS Kelly still afloat there less chance of Mountbatten pushing this. Maybe he end up in the Far east with the fleet.
- Talking of Far East, with NA finished in 1941 and not needing 5 and half divisions to be replaced, there be alot more to be sent there.
Just wondered how many of the A9,A10, A11 and A13 and light VI are left at this time.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Did the British take notice of the emerging threat from the Japanese in the Far East, and what did they do to counter it.
First we have to divide this question into two, that is the years up to the outbreak of the war, and the few short years since the outbreak. Britain was conscious of the ever increasing threat that the Japanese represented, throughout the nineteen thirties, and had a number of plans in place to deal with the threat. The building of a major fleet base at considerable cost in Singapore. The start of construction of new battleships, built to counter the Japanese threat, not the Germans or Italians. The encouragement of the Australians to acquire a strong navy, compare the pre war Australian navy to the Canadian navy. The design of the first new build aircraft carrier, HMS Ark Royal, designed to operate in the Far East not the Atlantic or Mediterranean, so no armoured decks and a large air group. All point to the British haven taken the threat from Japanese expansion seriously. And up until the fall of France, this was the right approach, with the French still in the war and in FIC, the Dutch free to reenforce their forces in the DEI, the threat from the Japanese was acceptable. Japan which was involved in a major land campaign in China, didn’t have the resources or bases to get involved in a major maritime campaign against Britain, France, Holland, and the USA. So Britain was able to send under equipped Indian forces to Malaya to complete their training while reliving the pre war professionals, to be sent to the Middle East, to be brought up to European standards of equipment. And themselves reliving the pre war professionals in theatre to be sent to France, and reinforcing the very small BEF. And a lot of these plans were being enacted when everything went pear shaped, France collapsed, Italy entered the war on the German side, and the Japanese entered FIC. Thus Burma which had been a backwater of empire, not threatened by anyone, it was a very long way over some horrendous country, through Chinese forces, for the Japanese to get to Burma. Is now under threat, Singapore seen as a safe place to build your major Far East Fleet Base, immune from ether land or air assault, is now vulnerable to both. Those troops you wanted to move to the Middle East best left where they are, and your life line to home, has been severed, with the closing of the Mediterranean. And everything you want has now got to go around the Cape, and is in short supply, because of the much higher priority of home and the Middle East.
Add to this the British didn’t have good intelligence on Japan, ether in the pre war years, or during the war. Japan was a very much closed society, and had very few western visitors, and very few of which were able to speak the language. You only have to consider how Japan was able to build the Yamato class battleships and equip them with 18.1 inch main guns, without ether the British or Americans realising. And it wasn’t until post war that thanks to American efforts to examine the various Japanese files, that it was realised how big the guns were. Only a few in the west had any vague idea of what was going on inside the Japanese establishment, and even fewer of the near all out war between the Navy and Army. In the avalanche of information coming in to British intelligence agencies, the facts of a little known battle against the Soviets in Manchuria, and its effect on Japanese plans, was easy to miss. Nor were people prepared to accept the report of a German Nazi, about the savagery of the Japanese Army, during the rape of Nanking, after all old chap aren’t the Japs and the Huns meant to be Allies. It all seams a bit fishy to me don’t you know, best take the report with a very large pinch of salt. So while the British have been thrown into a situation that upsets all their pre war plans, they are in the midst of trying to fight two major campaigns, and a number of minor campaigns, much closer to home. Thanks to Britain’s insistence in sticking rigidly to its obligations under the various Naval Treaties, and not building what it could both afford to, and needed to, ships from 1934 on. The three Ark Royal class aircraft carriers it wanted to replace the three Courageous class lash ups, and four Illustrious class armoured carriers to replace Eagle, Hermes and Argus, haven’t been built. Nor have the six Super KG5’s with 16 inch guns and weighing in at 45,000 tons plus. The fleet of T class submarines that should be patrolling the South China Sea, and protecting Malaya and Singapore from a Japanese attack, are being misused in the Mediterranean, as are the light cruisers, fleet destroyers and other units. Prior to the fall of France, and the Japanese occupation of FIC, there wasn’t ether a land threat to Malaya. And the only air threat was from Japanese carrier launched aircraft, which would have to gotten past the submarines in the South China Sea, along with the British carriers and battleships.
Now the British are trying to build airfields to base aircraft that they don’t have, to defend Singapore from an air attack originating in FIC. The fact that the Army and Airforce didn’t talk to each other before building the airfields, so that they were built in the wrong place for the Army to defend them, didn’t help. Nor were the civil authorities prepared to enact the measures needed to prepare Singapore for aerial assault, build air raid shelters, carry out realistic air raid drills, establish an effective civil defence force, and construct AA gun emplacements, even if you don’t as yet have the guns, in preparation for when you get them. Nor were they prepared to upset the intrenched local establishment, by insisting that the present rubber, tin surplus is loaded into ships and gotten out of Singapore, even if it means paying the workers more money. There was much that could have been done IOTL, but it required a much firmer hand from the civil administration, better resistance by the military and civil administration, to interference from various civilians. Oh I say old chap, don’t you know this is a golf course, and you can not put your silly guns on it, or drive you lorries across the greens. The answer should have been tough, and if you continue to interfere, you will be deported from the colony, or arrested and placed in prison as a threat to safety of the colony. Sadly this wasn’t the way it was, and the military were very hampered in their preparations, by having to accommodate civilian whims. However we are in a different world ITTL, and while I seriously doubt that unless a different Governor is appointed, there will be a major change in the attitude of the civil administration. There are opportunities for some different military officers to be appointed, as the Middle East, hasn’t been the deserter it was IOTL, and there are a number of officers, who would have been sent there going spare right now. So along with some small improvements in equipment, it is possible that a different set up in the command structure can be implemented, one that is more robust and focused. If this is done, then the Japanese are going to face a much harder time, and there is a very good chance that they will fail to rush Singapore and drive the British out. If they don’t succeed in expelling the British from Singapore, they will not have the troops available to invade Burma or Sumatra, and the war in the East, will take a very different course.
RR.
First we have to divide this question into two, that is the years up to the outbreak of the war, and the few short years since the outbreak. Britain was conscious of the ever increasing threat that the Japanese represented, throughout the nineteen thirties, and had a number of plans in place to deal with the threat. The building of a major fleet base at considerable cost in Singapore. The start of construction of new battleships, built to counter the Japanese threat, not the Germans or Italians. The encouragement of the Australians to acquire a strong navy, compare the pre war Australian navy to the Canadian navy. The design of the first new build aircraft carrier, HMS Ark Royal, designed to operate in the Far East not the Atlantic or Mediterranean, so no armoured decks and a large air group. All point to the British haven taken the threat from Japanese expansion seriously. And up until the fall of France, this was the right approach, with the French still in the war and in FIC, the Dutch free to reenforce their forces in the DEI, the threat from the Japanese was acceptable. Japan which was involved in a major land campaign in China, didn’t have the resources or bases to get involved in a major maritime campaign against Britain, France, Holland, and the USA. So Britain was able to send under equipped Indian forces to Malaya to complete their training while reliving the pre war professionals, to be sent to the Middle East, to be brought up to European standards of equipment. And themselves reliving the pre war professionals in theatre to be sent to France, and reinforcing the very small BEF. And a lot of these plans were being enacted when everything went pear shaped, France collapsed, Italy entered the war on the German side, and the Japanese entered FIC. Thus Burma which had been a backwater of empire, not threatened by anyone, it was a very long way over some horrendous country, through Chinese forces, for the Japanese to get to Burma. Is now under threat, Singapore seen as a safe place to build your major Far East Fleet Base, immune from ether land or air assault, is now vulnerable to both. Those troops you wanted to move to the Middle East best left where they are, and your life line to home, has been severed, with the closing of the Mediterranean. And everything you want has now got to go around the Cape, and is in short supply, because of the much higher priority of home and the Middle East.
Add to this the British didn’t have good intelligence on Japan, ether in the pre war years, or during the war. Japan was a very much closed society, and had very few western visitors, and very few of which were able to speak the language. You only have to consider how Japan was able to build the Yamato class battleships and equip them with 18.1 inch main guns, without ether the British or Americans realising. And it wasn’t until post war that thanks to American efforts to examine the various Japanese files, that it was realised how big the guns were. Only a few in the west had any vague idea of what was going on inside the Japanese establishment, and even fewer of the near all out war between the Navy and Army. In the avalanche of information coming in to British intelligence agencies, the facts of a little known battle against the Soviets in Manchuria, and its effect on Japanese plans, was easy to miss. Nor were people prepared to accept the report of a German Nazi, about the savagery of the Japanese Army, during the rape of Nanking, after all old chap aren’t the Japs and the Huns meant to be Allies. It all seams a bit fishy to me don’t you know, best take the report with a very large pinch of salt. So while the British have been thrown into a situation that upsets all their pre war plans, they are in the midst of trying to fight two major campaigns, and a number of minor campaigns, much closer to home. Thanks to Britain’s insistence in sticking rigidly to its obligations under the various Naval Treaties, and not building what it could both afford to, and needed to, ships from 1934 on. The three Ark Royal class aircraft carriers it wanted to replace the three Courageous class lash ups, and four Illustrious class armoured carriers to replace Eagle, Hermes and Argus, haven’t been built. Nor have the six Super KG5’s with 16 inch guns and weighing in at 45,000 tons plus. The fleet of T class submarines that should be patrolling the South China Sea, and protecting Malaya and Singapore from a Japanese attack, are being misused in the Mediterranean, as are the light cruisers, fleet destroyers and other units. Prior to the fall of France, and the Japanese occupation of FIC, there wasn’t ether a land threat to Malaya. And the only air threat was from Japanese carrier launched aircraft, which would have to gotten past the submarines in the South China Sea, along with the British carriers and battleships.
Now the British are trying to build airfields to base aircraft that they don’t have, to defend Singapore from an air attack originating in FIC. The fact that the Army and Airforce didn’t talk to each other before building the airfields, so that they were built in the wrong place for the Army to defend them, didn’t help. Nor were the civil authorities prepared to enact the measures needed to prepare Singapore for aerial assault, build air raid shelters, carry out realistic air raid drills, establish an effective civil defence force, and construct AA gun emplacements, even if you don’t as yet have the guns, in preparation for when you get them. Nor were they prepared to upset the intrenched local establishment, by insisting that the present rubber, tin surplus is loaded into ships and gotten out of Singapore, even if it means paying the workers more money. There was much that could have been done IOTL, but it required a much firmer hand from the civil administration, better resistance by the military and civil administration, to interference from various civilians. Oh I say old chap, don’t you know this is a golf course, and you can not put your silly guns on it, or drive you lorries across the greens. The answer should have been tough, and if you continue to interfere, you will be deported from the colony, or arrested and placed in prison as a threat to safety of the colony. Sadly this wasn’t the way it was, and the military were very hampered in their preparations, by having to accommodate civilian whims. However we are in a different world ITTL, and while I seriously doubt that unless a different Governor is appointed, there will be a major change in the attitude of the civil administration. There are opportunities for some different military officers to be appointed, as the Middle East, hasn’t been the deserter it was IOTL, and there are a number of officers, who would have been sent there going spare right now. So along with some small improvements in equipment, it is possible that a different set up in the command structure can be implemented, one that is more robust and focused. If this is done, then the Japanese are going to face a much harder time, and there is a very good chance that they will fail to rush Singapore and drive the British out. If they don’t succeed in expelling the British from Singapore, they will not have the troops available to invade Burma or Sumatra, and the war in the East, will take a very different course.
RR.
My suspicion for the Far East is that we are going to see an Australia form the planned AEF into a full corps and based in Malaya.
When the fighting is over in North Africa the Australian government will want the 6th, 7th and 9th Australian divisions to return East given the rising Japanese threat. The two options for those three divisions are to either return to Australia or go to Malaya. I suspect Malaya will be preferred by everyone. The British will want the troops in Malaya to be as good as possible and the Australians are very, very good. The Australians will want to form a full corps and Malaya represents a chance for that too happen. No matter what some Australian troops will be sent to Malaya so if that is happening anyway then send all of them and add in the 1st Australian Armoured Division to round out the formation. Yes it would likely be too early for 1st Australian Armoured but they were going to be sent to the middle East in December 41 so bringing that forward a couple of months to have them with the rest of the AEF divisions is not that much of a stretch.
Then the formations that are being replaced by Australians in Malaya can be sent to Rabaul, Timor and Ambon with possibly some more troops being sent to Borneo as well. Overall that would be a very tough ring of defences for Japan to Break.
When the fighting is over in North Africa the Australian government will want the 6th, 7th and 9th Australian divisions to return East given the rising Japanese threat. The two options for those three divisions are to either return to Australia or go to Malaya. I suspect Malaya will be preferred by everyone. The British will want the troops in Malaya to be as good as possible and the Australians are very, very good. The Australians will want to form a full corps and Malaya represents a chance for that too happen. No matter what some Australian troops will be sent to Malaya so if that is happening anyway then send all of them and add in the 1st Australian Armoured Division to round out the formation. Yes it would likely be too early for 1st Australian Armoured but they were going to be sent to the middle East in December 41 so bringing that forward a couple of months to have them with the rest of the AEF divisions is not that much of a stretch.
Then the formations that are being replaced by Australians in Malaya can be sent to Rabaul, Timor and Ambon with possibly some more troops being sent to Borneo as well. Overall that would be a very tough ring of defences for Japan to Break.