I don't think they'll delay the attack, it just gives the Western Allies more time to prepare and send even more reinforcements. Also if they delay the US Pacific Fleet may not remain in Hawaii where the Japanese can get at them.
Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
Okay, so they're even more constrained in where they can draw troops from then.
Where else is the US going to send their Pacific Fleet? The Philippines? Even better for Imperial Japan, since they don't have as far to go to get to them, and can wipe them out as part of the Philippines operation. (The US did not forward deploy their major units to the Philippines in the original timeline presumably because they would be too vulnerable there... Well that and logistics...) The United States has a shortage of major bases it can base its Pacific Fleet in 1941/early 1942, unless it pulls back to the west coast of the USA, but in that latter case, it may as well scrap the embargo too, while it's at it, since pulling the fleet back is signalling to Imperial Japan it can do whatever the heck it wants.
As soon as the attack happens, a whole raft of new bases will open up for them.
They are even more constrained than you think , the Monson, which will shut down the Land war when it hits, gives a need for speed and shipping is near maxed so they cannot even supply/transport much more than OTL. Given that OTL they had difficulty deploying all the troops, a reliance on Bushido Spirit to fill in for pesky problems like odds/ammunition supply etc seems likely. As the additional Imperial forces are veteran, the potential for it going horribly wrong ( remembering the Japanese plan is over complicated and needs multiple stages to go to both plan and time to enable the reuse of the troops/transports for the later phases ) and the chances of a stall in Northern Malaya is high.
With what ammunition depots and fuel tank storage or machine workshops?
With what food processing and storage capabilities capable of ensuring a group of very hungry USN sailors and aviators about to put to sea will be kept supplied with ice-cream (and other essentials) until they next return to port?
With what airfields, anti-aircraft batteries, and counter-submarine measures in place to nominally protect ships actually in port? (Not that that does much good if Italian frogmen are coming after you, as the British found out to their cost several times, but Italian frogmen are less of a problem in the Pacific, I grant...
)I knew they were at the limits of their shipping, so the only place they can pull troops from is other parts of the Pacific Campaign.
Well as soon as war happens, they'll have access to all of the British bases in Australia (I think Sydney has a dry-dock), and also Singapore.With what ammunition depots and fuel tank storage or machine workshops?
With what food processing and storage capabilities capable of ensuring a group of very hungry USN sailors and aviators about to put to sea will be kept supplied with ice-cream (and other essentials) until they next return to port?
With what airfields, anti-aircraft batteries, and counter-submarine measures in place to nominally protect ships actually in port? (Not that that does much good if Italian frogmen are coming after you, as the British found out to their cost several times, but Italian frogmen are less of a problem in the Pacific, I grant...
I think you meant the 2/1st Field Regiment Royal Australian Artillery corp. Unless they are a British unit?
The Japanese have to attack and take Singapore and Malaya, beyond expanding the Empire and "liberating" the area from Europeans, the main purpose is to cover the invasion of the Dutch East Indies to secure the oil they need to keep going. Also to facilitate the invasion of Burma which gets you more oil.
With the additional troops the British are sending, and the presence of tanks, even the idiots in the Japanese high command will know they need to commit more troops. Unfortunately, given that Japan has already maxed out its sea-lift capacity, the only place they can pull troops from is other South Pacific operations.
Chuckle, never underestimate the potential entrenched stupidity of any command structure, military or otherwise. As I say, they definitely have to neutralise Malaya, whether they would change their troop and naval dispositions or not is an interesting question.
Allan has not given us details of potential Naval reinforcements yet but, given the need to help Menzies get Australia on board (granted after a more positive African campaign mind), announcing the reinforcements, both land and sea, will be necessary so in theory spies are not needed. Remember originally the goal of Force Z was deterrance, not to actually have to fight it out.
The Japanese would then know there were armoured reinforcements in Malaya, possibly extra air support and heavy naval reinforcements. Plus with the end of the North African campaign they would know more support is likely in the foreseable future. Even with British reinforcements, it is likely Yamamoto will still both see the US Pacific Fleet as the greater threat and the US in the long-term so knocking it out and either delaying the Americans or forcing them to the peace table will be his initial priority. Pearl Harbour therefore happens on schedule.
As you mention, Japanese sealift capacity is limited at best so robbing Peter to pay Paul is the only way you could deal with the greater British challenege. I suppose it depends on whether you see the reinforced British or the US forces in the Phillipines as the greater threat as that is the only place I can think of you get the extra capacity, maybe Rabaul?
Allan has not given us details of potential Naval reinforcements yet but, given the need to help Menzies get Australia on board (granted after a more positive African campaign mind), announcing the reinforcements, both land and sea, will be necessary so in theory spies are not needed. Remember originally the goal of Force Z was deterrance, not to actually have to fight it out.
The Japanese would then know there were armoured reinforcements in Malaya, possibly extra air support and heavy naval reinforcements. Plus with the end of the North African campaign they would know more support is likely in the foreseable future. Even with British reinforcements, it is likely Yamamoto will still both see the US Pacific Fleet as the greater threat and the US in the long-term so knocking it out and either delaying the Americans or forcing them to the peace table will be his initial priority. Pearl Harbour therefore happens on schedule.
As you mention, Japanese sealift capacity is limited at best so robbing Peter to pay Paul is the only way you could deal with the greater British challenege. I suppose it depends on whether you see the reinforced British or the US forces in the Phillipines as the greater threat as that is the only place I can think of you get the extra capacity, maybe Rabaul?
Rabaul possibly, but also maybe Borneo and the DEI, basically anywhere that isn't the Philippines.
Maybe though you would get arguments over, "we must secure the oilfields first as well" I think.
I think Japan still has a few months worth of fuel left. It's cutting it fine to be sure, but it's better to be low on fuel than to try to grab too much at once, and lose eveything in the process. Alternatively, they could pull troops from the non-oil-producing parts of the DEI.
Absolutely. I can see an argument which says you strip forces from the Philippines invasion as that island is less of a threat after the USN has been taken out by the Pearl Harbor attack. Assuming the US cannot resupply or reinforce the islands means Japan can take it's time there and prioritise the important things (like the oilfields). It adds a bit more risk to the plan as it now requires total success at Pearl Harbor, but that sort of extra risk and complexity is entirely how OTL Japanese plans were made.
With hindsight it's not even that bad a plan, as long as the initial air attack on the PI goes as well as OTL then the Far Eastern Air Force gets effectively wiped out and there is no real offensive threat left on the islands. At that point the Phillipiness is less a knife on the throat, but an entirely blunt knife that's just been dropped.
I think I would need to see the minutes of the Japanese Army Staff meetings to make a more definitive judgement. Would make fascinating reading mind lol.
TBH with MacArthur running the defence of the Philippines the Japanese could probably take the whole island with two brigades. Man is stupid enough that he would probably march what troops he had into some carefully coordinated kill zones.
It would probably do the allied war effort a world of good if he died in the Philippines.
An alternative, if they think the British in Malaya are now too strong for the forces available, is to scrub the Western arm of the operation completely - hit the Philippines fast and hard, neutralise the garrison there, then make Davao your forward base (as OTL) and push South through the Makassar Straight and the Banda Sea, aiming to take Ambon and Timor and the oilfields in Eastern Borneo, then roll up the East Indies from the East. If the British shift forces from Malaya to oppose you, they have to move away from their air/naval bases at Singapore and (probably) leave their heavy equipment behind.
Once you've taken Java and Sumatra and closed the Sunda and Malacca Straights, Malaya can no longer be supplied and (like Bataan/Corregidor) is effectively a self-supporting PoW camp. The trapped Commonwealth forces there can be eliminated with a combination of landings in the south and a land offensive down the Kra Isthmus, using troops freed up by the end of operations in the Philippines and the East Indies.
But I suspect it's more likely that the IJA will decide that a single additional brigade in Malaya doesn't change the situation enough for a major revision to the plans.
15 November 1941. Sirti, Libya.
allanpcameron
Donor
15 November 1941. Sirti, Libya.
Lieutenant General Vyvyan Pope, GOC XXX Corps, took the salute of 2nd Armoured Division as elements of it passed the reviewing stand. This was a fancy description for the Canadian Pattern Truck he was standing on, but it played its role. Three days ahead of schedule, Pope was pleased to inform General’s O’Connor (GOC 8th Army) and Wavell (C-in-C Middle East), standing alongside him on the truck, that XXX Corps was fully trained and ready for action.
XIII Corps had done extremely well having captured Misurata ahead of schedule, but, as expected they were now having to hold in place, as their stocks of supplies had been depleted and were in need of resupply. The Royal Navy had been running convoys directly from Benghazi to Beurat and over the beach at Misurata until its limited facilities could be improved.
Now it would be the turn of XXX Corps to take up the momentum that would lead the British and Empire forces to Tripoli. The 4th Indian Division were already at El Gheddahia, with the 2nd New Zealand Division at Tamet. Now that the 2nd Armoured Division had completed its final rehearsals satisfactorily, they would set off in the morning along the coast road via Tamet to El Gheddahia. A journey of over 80 miles just to the start line would take its toll on the Valiant I* tanks, but that would just be the beginning of days of seriously difficult driving.
Lieutenant General Vyvyan Pope, GOC XXX Corps, took the salute of 2nd Armoured Division as elements of it passed the reviewing stand. This was a fancy description for the Canadian Pattern Truck he was standing on, but it played its role. Three days ahead of schedule, Pope was pleased to inform General’s O’Connor (GOC 8th Army) and Wavell (C-in-C Middle East), standing alongside him on the truck, that XXX Corps was fully trained and ready for action.
XIII Corps had done extremely well having captured Misurata ahead of schedule, but, as expected they were now having to hold in place, as their stocks of supplies had been depleted and were in need of resupply. The Royal Navy had been running convoys directly from Benghazi to Beurat and over the beach at Misurata until its limited facilities could be improved.
Now it would be the turn of XXX Corps to take up the momentum that would lead the British and Empire forces to Tripoli. The 4th Indian Division were already at El Gheddahia, with the 2nd New Zealand Division at Tamet. Now that the 2nd Armoured Division had completed its final rehearsals satisfactorily, they would set off in the morning along the coast road via Tamet to El Gheddahia. A journey of over 80 miles just to the start line would take its toll on the Valiant I* tanks, but that would just be the beginning of days of seriously difficult driving.