Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
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They do need to replace the two squadrons of Vickers Vildebeests in Malaya, though it's much more likely they'd do so with Australian built Beauforts.
Ramp Rat, I think you're absolutley right about Singapore now ITTL. Had the IJN used it's carrier group early on even in this time line then the damage to the ports, shipping and defenses would have made the subsequent reinforcement and operations further up the peninsular next to impossible. Allan has done a great job of describing how the Allies forces could steadily bring in tanks, fresh divsions and supplies in a way that OTL wasn't possible. But also refrain from the more school boy fun of "but what if the IJN and IJA talked to each other and did such and such". Now the IJN is a bit stuck. It can't get into the Indian Ocean as it did OTL. The need/ urgency for a Midway is probably not there. So is it going to be a more defensive force? It's still the most cohesive powerful , single naval fleet in the world at this point - but it's glass jaw is an issue. It can hit other naval capital ships very hard , especially in open blue waters, - but with allied air cover and radar from the coasts is going to be hard pressed to bring the sort of devastating attacks it did ITTL. For now it's certainly strong enough to stop the allies getting near the Phillipines in any meanigful way or begin Island hopping. But as a strategic weapon - starting to look more like a fleet in being.
However prehaps we are giving the Allies a bit too much the benefit of hindsight. There has been no PoW sinking. The RN has no reason to change it;s genuine and so far held up doctrine that Battleships can operate safely against carriers./ shore aircraft. The temptation is going to be for the Allies to do something with the Phillipines. They don't know that in 2/3 years time the US is going to cancelling Essex Carrier builds cos it has so many and that the Zero is going to outdated. They will want to act now. Or at least soon and with Singapore intact will the Allies start to suffer from a victory fever? A seemingly powerful Super Force Z - lots of shiny big guns headed off with transport full of Victor Tanks towards Manilla (and whilst the love for Macarthur on this forum is hilarious - he had lots of friends in Congress who will be screaming that help be sent) - now that would be a sight for the fully intact IJN Carrier force.
However prehaps we are giving the Allies a bit too much the benefit of hindsight. There has been no PoW sinking. The RN has no reason to change it;s genuine and so far held up doctrine that Battleships can operate safely against carriers./ shore aircraft. The temptation is going to be for the Allies to do something with the Phillipines. They don't know that in 2/3 years time the US is going to cancelling Essex Carrier builds cos it has so many and that the Zero is going to outdated. They will want to act now. Or at least soon and with Singapore intact will the Allies start to suffer from a victory fever? A seemingly powerful Super Force Z - lots of shiny big guns headed off with transport full of Victor Tanks towards Manilla (and whilst the love for Macarthur on this forum is hilarious - he had lots of friends in Congress who will be screaming that help be sent) - now that would be a sight for the fully intact IJN Carrier force.
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Hmm I can’t see the RN doing that seems like a nice idea in theory but the RN has a good idea what air power can do they have seen it running convoys through the Med as well as used carrier cover in those convoys as well as done their own version of Pearl at Taranto. Heck during the battle of Britain the luft tried to draw out the RAF by hitting convoys that went through the English Channel, the escort commanders will have reported on the effect of that as well as what happened to AAA ships in porta without support from top-cover. They have seen the effects so they won’t be ignorant to it and the Flag Officers would want carrier escorts because they are going to be aware of this, also though the Japanese section at Bletchley isn’t as developed due to a lack of Japanese speaking personel they are fairly far along breaking the Emperors mail maybe more so given they have really been puting them to the sword so who knows what has been picked upso they are probably going to at least have a rough idea of where the carrier arm is.
Also I can’t see the Officers ITTL throwing that sort of desperate move out to the Philippines given other theatre commitment’s it would require that bastard MacArthur having great pull than I’d expect him to have/
Also I can’t see the Officers ITTL throwing that sort of desperate move out to the Philippines given other theatre commitment’s it would require that bastard MacArthur having great pull than I’d expect him to have/
MacArthur is sure that saving his butt is worth the loss of every single RN ship - Admiral King agrees.......
Yep but they have what command rank in the RN? And the USN has which victories against the Kreigsmarine, IJN and Italain Navy at this point which allows them to make such demand.
Also at this point the US can scream all they want but Britian and the Commonwealth are in a stronger position compared to OTL given they kicked the Axis out of North Africa and are delivering the IJA a beating and have badly damaged the IJN in the local area. Britian is in a less desperate and invidious position.
Also proving up the Philippines serves what strategic goal? In the cold calculus of things the Philippines is acting as a soak for Japanese men and material and reinforcing a position going bad isn't worth the risk
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I think CalBear had a timeline where an attempt to resupply the Philippines was made with a parallel effort to draw the IJN into a naval gunfight, but I'm not sure which timeline it was. It might have been the Pacific War Redux timeline.
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
At this stage of the war and given the situation as is in Europe, the Atlantic, Mediterranean, Far East and Pacific, there is very little chance of the RN accepting any instructions from the USN, especially those that derive from the well known Anglophobe Admiral King As for his imperial majesty, Lord high savour of the Philippines, Dugout Doug, he can scream all he wants, spit out his dummy and throw an almighty temper tantrum, but the British government and the military administration in the Far East, are not going to lift a finger to get him out of the hole he has gotten himself into. Once they have managed to stabilise the front, they will offer to assist in evacuating essential personnel and civilian refugees, while delivering as much humanitarian assistance as they can. Remember given the situation there are very limited military supplies that the British can supply to the Philippines, as there is little to no equipment that the British and Americans have in common. As for the British being so foolish as to attempt to operate capital naval units, in the South China Sea without adequate air cover, given the experience going back to Norway, fat chance. It was only the fact that Admiral Philips didn’t understand the range of the Japanese land based torpedo bombers, or the numbers available to the Japanese, that gave him the false sense of security. Note had Force Z been attacked by a single squadron of less than twenty bombers, there is a good chance that it while damaged would have survived.
RR.
RR.
I don't think Admiral King is on board with that.
Far better to lose the Philippines than to let the Brits get associated with Mac's victory.
On the other hand if he can shift much of the inevitable criticism for not supplying MacArthur from the USN onto the RN he'll be happy.
Probably won't matter to the American public but the British can't run any substantial aid to the Philippines without heavy escort even the subs and fast runner they were talking about sending is a hell of a dice throw.
They will just claim that the British are fighting to the last GI
The only reason the Brits are having it so easy is the heroic actions of Mac and the Battlin Ba****ds of Bataan
Derek Pullem
Donor
1 as
As opposed to the only reason the Ba****ds are battlin longer is that the British and Empire troops are kicking the Japanese back out of Malaya (and Burma)
And if you think that will ever have a chance of getting into the Chicago Herald-Tribune, I have a snowball I want you to deliver to Satan!
Britain is also stretched thin supporting the Dutch, but of course, the Americans will ignore that too, along with the fact that this whole fiasco was their doing in the first place (it was the Americans who pressured the British and Dutch to end trade with the Japanese over their advances in FIC)!
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
The resent success of the British forces in the Grik region, not only shows just how different the events in this TL have become in comparison to those of ours. They will be a major boost to British forces morale and effectiveness, in both the short term and long term. If as appears to be likely, the British can capture the port of Butterworth and return it back to a working state. They will be able to replace a number of supply trains with coastal shipping, which will not only reduce the strain on the West Coast Railway. But also free up slots on the main line out of Singapore for trains to run up to Gemas, and then on the Eastern Railway in support of the campaign on the East Coast. In addition both the coastal shipping and the increased traffic on the railway, will be able to bring much needed commercial goods to Singapore, on their return journey. Not only does this make a far more efficient use of the limited transport resources available in Malaya. It also makes a major contribution to the total war effort, as there will be no reason to ration rubber in such a harsh way as there was IOTL. The British in Malaya are now entering a period where their can regain some of the territory that was lost to the invading Japanese in the opening weeks of the conflict. While preparations are made for the eventual attack into Thailand, to join up with the assault from Burma. Which will lead eventually to an invasion of French Indo China, and the possibility of reopening the rail link to China. Which would vastly improve the provision of supplies to that embattled land, and force the Japanese to expend even more forces in their ongoing commitment to China.
At the same time the soon to be decision by Weygard in FNI, to switch sides and declare for the Free French movement. Will reduce the strain on allied shipping, and naval forces, which will allow the deployment of more and more capable units to the Far East. Without the Japanese success that they enjoyed IOTL, the disruption that arose after the fall of Singapore and the subsequent conquest of Burma, in India will be very much muted in comparison to what occurred IOTL. Without the need to retain as many forces in India on public order duties, there will be more forces available for deployment in both the Far East and the Mediterranean. And without the large scale losses suffered IOTL, in both the Mediterranean and Far East, Britain will not hit the personal shortage that it suffered during 1944, and probably only encounter them in late 1945. Britain doesn’t need to send large numbers of armoured vehicles to the Far East, especially not the newest and most heavily armoured. Nor is she going to suffer the large scale loss of armoured vehicles, like she did in Europe after the invasion of France, in the fighting in the Far East. There will be no need to deploy the newest and most heavily armoured tanks to the Far East, the present heavy is more than a match for anything that the Japanese can deploy. And the strain on on the logistics and infrastructure, that would occur from deployment of the newest tanks, isn’t worth the effort. As I have previously stated, while the British have some sympathy for the American forces in the Philippines, they have little to no respect for their commander. They will once they are sure of their position in Malaya, offer to attempt to provide humanitarian assistance to the besieged forces, and those others that haven’t as yet been isolated by the Japanese invaders. British submarines will in addition to running supplies into the besieged garrison, and evacuating trapped civilians and essential personnel. Will conduct patrols of the Philippines, sinking as many vessels as they can, merchant and naval, as this serves to reduce the vessels available for use against Malaysia and the DEI.
With the supply route to Malta now secured, the fast fleet minelayers of the Abdial class are now free to be deployed in the Far East. And can conduct missions to supply American forces in the rest of the Philippines outside of the besieged region, with again humanitarian aid, and evacuate both American casualties who have been rendered unable to be returned to action, civilians especially women and children, and vital military personnel who the Americans can not afford to be captured by the Japanese. While there is no question that these will be through highly contested waters, these ships can effectively outrun anything that they can not outgun. And there very experienced captains and crews, should be able to handle both the navigation and opposition forces, without to much difficulty. Just a few runs by these ships will make excellent propaganda for the British, especially inside the USA. The RN is providing relief to Americans suffering under the Japanese, which the mighty USN, is for some reason unable to do. And the more resources that the Japanese are forced to divert to their Philippine campaign, they less they have to allocate to the Malayan campaign. Or supporting their actions in Borneo and the rest of the DEI, as it will be they the Japanese who find themselves struggling to allocate their limited resources. Note the resources needed to prevent the British from supplying the besieged American forces, and to try to prevent the British running a two or more fast ship convoy into Leyte or Davao, far exceed those available. The Japanese would need to divert squadrons of aircraft, along with numerous ships, from what ever vital task they are presently engaged on, to try to intercept the British. As without ether ship borne radar or aircraft mounted radar its all down to mark one eyeball. And without an established and integrated reporting system, the task of coordinating the various reports will be a nightmare. Given just how primitive communications were at this time, just passing any sighting report to the high command, will be a major challenge.
At this stage of the war, the British are reasonably content, despite the first year being much of a disaster, which is historically normal for them. The situation now is stable verging on good, as Britain itself is safe from invasion and air assault, given just how committed the Germans are to their invasion of the Soviet Union. The Middle East and North Africa, are soon to become a secure backwater, while all the advantages lie with the British in the Mediterranean. And having survived the initial Japanese assault in the Far East, it too is now stable, and the advantage is about to swing towards Britain. However the Italians, Japanese and Americans are all seriously upset, as right now they are all in varying degrees of difficulty. The Italians are not just seriously short of resources, and have lost all of their overseas territories, but face an ever increasing air assault. And the probability of an invasion, which they do not have the resources or manpower to effectively defend against. The Japanese have seen their intricate plans fail, and the vital oil that was their principal reason to go to war, is now even further away than it was before they launched their campaign to the South. While the Americans have suffered a significantly embarrassing defeat at Pearl Harbour, and their forces in the Philippines, are in comparison to the British, failing to impress. FDR, who wanted to be the saviour of the West, and be in a position to dictate to the British. Is now reliant on them to extract some good news out of the Philippines. And thanks to their defence of Malaya are in a much stronger financial position than they were IOTL. And thus no were near as dependent on American largest, as they were IOTL, and up until America can get significant boots on the ground in Europe, will very much be calling the tune for now. Given the present situation, FDR is going to be very tempted to carry out a Doolittle type attack against Japan, if only to gain some prestige, and silence some of his critics at home.
RR.
At the same time the soon to be decision by Weygard in FNI, to switch sides and declare for the Free French movement. Will reduce the strain on allied shipping, and naval forces, which will allow the deployment of more and more capable units to the Far East. Without the Japanese success that they enjoyed IOTL, the disruption that arose after the fall of Singapore and the subsequent conquest of Burma, in India will be very much muted in comparison to what occurred IOTL. Without the need to retain as many forces in India on public order duties, there will be more forces available for deployment in both the Far East and the Mediterranean. And without the large scale losses suffered IOTL, in both the Mediterranean and Far East, Britain will not hit the personal shortage that it suffered during 1944, and probably only encounter them in late 1945. Britain doesn’t need to send large numbers of armoured vehicles to the Far East, especially not the newest and most heavily armoured. Nor is she going to suffer the large scale loss of armoured vehicles, like she did in Europe after the invasion of France, in the fighting in the Far East. There will be no need to deploy the newest and most heavily armoured tanks to the Far East, the present heavy is more than a match for anything that the Japanese can deploy. And the strain on on the logistics and infrastructure, that would occur from deployment of the newest tanks, isn’t worth the effort. As I have previously stated, while the British have some sympathy for the American forces in the Philippines, they have little to no respect for their commander. They will once they are sure of their position in Malaya, offer to attempt to provide humanitarian assistance to the besieged forces, and those others that haven’t as yet been isolated by the Japanese invaders. British submarines will in addition to running supplies into the besieged garrison, and evacuating trapped civilians and essential personnel. Will conduct patrols of the Philippines, sinking as many vessels as they can, merchant and naval, as this serves to reduce the vessels available for use against Malaysia and the DEI.
With the supply route to Malta now secured, the fast fleet minelayers of the Abdial class are now free to be deployed in the Far East. And can conduct missions to supply American forces in the rest of the Philippines outside of the besieged region, with again humanitarian aid, and evacuate both American casualties who have been rendered unable to be returned to action, civilians especially women and children, and vital military personnel who the Americans can not afford to be captured by the Japanese. While there is no question that these will be through highly contested waters, these ships can effectively outrun anything that they can not outgun. And there very experienced captains and crews, should be able to handle both the navigation and opposition forces, without to much difficulty. Just a few runs by these ships will make excellent propaganda for the British, especially inside the USA. The RN is providing relief to Americans suffering under the Japanese, which the mighty USN, is for some reason unable to do. And the more resources that the Japanese are forced to divert to their Philippine campaign, they less they have to allocate to the Malayan campaign. Or supporting their actions in Borneo and the rest of the DEI, as it will be they the Japanese who find themselves struggling to allocate their limited resources. Note the resources needed to prevent the British from supplying the besieged American forces, and to try to prevent the British running a two or more fast ship convoy into Leyte or Davao, far exceed those available. The Japanese would need to divert squadrons of aircraft, along with numerous ships, from what ever vital task they are presently engaged on, to try to intercept the British. As without ether ship borne radar or aircraft mounted radar its all down to mark one eyeball. And without an established and integrated reporting system, the task of coordinating the various reports will be a nightmare. Given just how primitive communications were at this time, just passing any sighting report to the high command, will be a major challenge.
At this stage of the war, the British are reasonably content, despite the first year being much of a disaster, which is historically normal for them. The situation now is stable verging on good, as Britain itself is safe from invasion and air assault, given just how committed the Germans are to their invasion of the Soviet Union. The Middle East and North Africa, are soon to become a secure backwater, while all the advantages lie with the British in the Mediterranean. And having survived the initial Japanese assault in the Far East, it too is now stable, and the advantage is about to swing towards Britain. However the Italians, Japanese and Americans are all seriously upset, as right now they are all in varying degrees of difficulty. The Italians are not just seriously short of resources, and have lost all of their overseas territories, but face an ever increasing air assault. And the probability of an invasion, which they do not have the resources or manpower to effectively defend against. The Japanese have seen their intricate plans fail, and the vital oil that was their principal reason to go to war, is now even further away than it was before they launched their campaign to the South. While the Americans have suffered a significantly embarrassing defeat at Pearl Harbour, and their forces in the Philippines, are in comparison to the British, failing to impress. FDR, who wanted to be the saviour of the West, and be in a position to dictate to the British. Is now reliant on them to extract some good news out of the Philippines. And thanks to their defence of Malaya are in a much stronger financial position than they were IOTL. And thus no were near as dependent on American largest, as they were IOTL, and up until America can get significant boots on the ground in Europe, will very much be calling the tune for now. Given the present situation, FDR is going to be very tempted to carry out a Doolittle type attack against Japan, if only to gain some prestige, and silence some of his critics at home.
RR.
Unless Churchill gets an idea in his head - remember thats is always possible
Ramp-Rat
Monthly Donor
Basically no, unless he can come up with a third carrier to provide the escort to Hornet and Enterprise, which would enable a total of 32 B-25 Mitchell’s, to take part. Which is still a very minor raid in comparison to those taking place in both Europe and the Far East, at this time. The only major change from events IOTL, I could see happening, is the American fleet doesn’t encounter the Japanese picket boat it did, or having encountered a picket of some sort. The Americans decided to press on until they reach the designated launch position, and thus provided the aircraft with a much greater chance of reaching their destination airfields in China.
RR.
If the outer PI can be resupplied along with small amounts of supplies going into the besieged areas and personnel continually evacuated, there is potential for establishing resupply operations from the outer islands. If Battan can hold on into the later months of 1942, the odds of successful relief grow exponentially.
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