I do wonder what the Japanese high command is thinking right about now. The various axis powers had such a wonderfully strange yet adamant set of presumptions about everyone, that seeing what they think of the colonial powers actually fighting back and the natives not revolting to join the 'co-prosperity sphere' might be interesting.
Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.
- Thread starter allanpcameron
- Start date
If I had to guess, they are realizing they will have to make an important decision. The desctruction of the Sagakuchi Detachment means they are running one month behind schedule. The OOB in Ambon and geography makes is plausible that the first attempt to seize the island will fail. Thankfully for the Japanese the Allies cannot project naval and air power that far north in January 1942, so their naval assets will be safe.
Even in OTL the Japanese were aware that allied reinforcements were arriving at the DEI. Now the Allies have even more breathing space and lots of assets will be arriving at Java with every passing week. The Japanese also know that the British do not have an active front in Mediterranean, so they will anticipate the relocation of RAF squadrons. Once they realize that Malaya is not going to fall any time soon, they will have little hope of closing off the western approaches to Java.
So, they have two choices if they want the javanese and the sumatran oil fields:
i) Fight a war of attrition by capturing Timor and Bali and utilizing land-based air power to slowly degrade the defences of Java for a successful invasion. It will take time and the western approaches will be safe for the Allies to continue pouring assets.
ii) Use the Kido Butai in the closed Java Sea to suppress the many airfields in Java. No mere raid, but proper suppression. Perhaps to send first the Kido Butai to attack Darwin to destroy shipping and airfield, same as in OTL.
Neither of the above is a good choice in my opinion, but they cannot do anything else.
The problem is that the Allies have now the capacity to shift enough fighters and bombers to the DEI. In the case that they would use HMS Formitable for a last Club Run to ferry aircraft from Port Sudan (alternate ending of the Takoradi route after December 7th), then there is enough time for HMS Ark Royal as well to do a Club Run before the IJN is ready to attack Java. In OTL 40 more Hurricanes had arrived with the aircraft transport Athene.
In OTL late February, Java was expecting 20 P-40s, 10 A-27 dive bombers, 8 B-17s and50 Hurricanes. These were either re-routed after the landings, lost at sea or were overrun. Convoy MS.5 carried 65 P-40s along with pilots, ground crew, tools, spares, ammunition and vehicles. On February 17th it was sent itself to India. Only days afterwards it was sent back towards to Java and we know what happened.
In general, according to the "Allied Defence of the Malay Barrier":
I wonder, without an active desert campaign, how faster the british portion of these fighters will arrive.
The australian brigade in Ambon means that the raid against Darwin will take place a bit later. There will be more american fighters and bombers in Darwin. "Strategic Planning for Coalition Warfare, 1941-1942" mentions that:
In TTL Darwin will have teeth. Java will have very sharp teeth. Nagumo won't be happy.
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I want to add something to the two below points.
This will hurt them because if the attempt to fight this sort of war it will kill air crews faster than anything and the Japanese don't have the same ability as the RAF, RAAF and NZ to replace their losses.
Same for the technical side as well they way it's set up there will be a brawl for supplies and that is assuming the allied submarines are sleeping and not enjoying a happy hunting time.
That would be mildly better however the same argument about attrition applies but in more cases it will be more acute since maintaining this level of suppression in this time line will be majorly taxing in the IJN.
Ontop of this some of the same issues will apply to the IJN as OTL particularly relating to damage control and the fact British and dutch torpedoes actually work.
And Singapore still has the golden set of dentures if those set of teeth fails. Jokes aside, I would like to ask if ITTL will the emperor would know about this set of setbacks, or is there a likelihood that high command will decide to keep it a secret from him?
P/s: Someone who is against the war against the allies (like a politician for example.) would probably said by now, "Told you so!".
There might not be a Darwin Raid in this timeline if the carriers get diverted to support other operations closer tp the Home Islands.
Intercepting fast moving warships with diesel electric submarines is far from easy though, and usually a matter of luck.
Ramontxo
Donor
They are, moving, mines. They must be in the exact cuadrant the enemy warship must happen to cross. Possible but improbable.
But certainly possible. OTL, the IJN lost the fleet carriers Taiho and Shokaku to submarine attack at the Philippine Sea, and Unryu and Shinano later in the war. U-boat attacks cost the RN Courageous, Ark Royal and Eagle and the USN lost Wasp to a Japanese submarine off Guadalcanal. The problem is having the submarine spot the target in time to make an intercept, given the slow submerged speed of most WWII subs. The submarine's odds get much better if it's operating in confined waters that the warship has to transit. Attempts in both World Wars to arrange ambushes in open water by drawing ships over lines of pre-positioned submarines had a near-100% failure rate.
Big boy boots,
James Wood The Australian military contribution to the occupation of japan at 4 said:
Wood (https://www.awm.gov.au/sites/default/files/87111/files/bcofhistory1.pdf) appears to be an extract of his earlier text James Wood, The forgotten force: the Australian military contribution to the occupation of Japan 1945–1952, Allen and Unwin, 1998.
yours,
Sam R.
I would also like to point out that the loss of the Sakaguchi transports will hurt. In one night, 15 out of 135 transports assigned to the DEI force (not including the Malaya force) were sunk. That's heavy attrition. The naval action off Kota Baru also led to more transports lost than in OTL.
There is also the question what will they do with the 38th Division? I think they can either send it to reinforce either the 16th Army in Java/Timor or the 25th Army in Malaya. The other reserves readily available to throw against Malaya and Java are the 21st Div and the 21st Independent Mixed Bde. While the IJA has many many divisions available in China, I doubt that there is enough lift and logistics capacity to support more units. Otherwise, they would have sent more divisions in the centrifugal offensive.
There is also the question what will they do with the 38th Division? I think they can either send it to reinforce either the 16th Army in Java/Timor or the 25th Army in Malaya. The other reserves readily available to throw against Malaya and Java are the 21st Div and the 21st Independent Mixed Bde. While the IJA has many many divisions available in China, I doubt that there is enough lift and logistics capacity to support more units. Otherwise, they would have sent more divisions in the centrifugal offensive.
23/24 January 1942. The Battle of Kendari
allanpcameron
Donor
23/24 January 1942. The Battle of Kendari
The reinforcements had begun arriving over the last week. The first to arrive was the Dutch Marine Battalion. Lieutenant-Colonel W.A.J. Roelofsen consisted of two companies of 125 marines and two companies of MBA (Marine Bewakings Afdeling Navy Guard Detachment). The latter were naval reserve personnel which returned to active duty to guard various facilities. The marines were well trained and very capable, the MBA companies were only really good for guard duties.
KNIL Army Captain F.B. van Straalen, commander of the 400 men of the Dutch garrison was glad to hand command over to Roelofsen but remained his second in command. The MBA companies were sent immediately to the airfield to reinforce the Anti-Aircraft Battery (2 x 40mm guns) and Anti-Aircraft Machine-Gun Platoon (3 x AAMG).
With two Marine companies reinforcing the KNIL Infantry Company, the other asset was 4 armoured cars, which van Straalen was using as a quick reaction force. This was still nowhere enough to defend the area. It was the arrival of the next reinforcements that gave Roelofsen hope to be able to do something effective.
VIII battalion of 6th KNIL Regiment (OC Major Doorman), just under 600 men, were mostly reservists who’d been mobilised and their training and fitness still needed some improvement. They were sent immediately to the airfield to improve the defences.
Most importantly was the arrival of the 2nd Artillery Battalion of 131st American Field Artillery Regiment of the Texas National Guard. Made up of about 750 men, under the command of Lt-Col Blucher Tharp, who were meant to have reinforced the Philippines. Three batteries of four 75mm guns were the core of the Battalion, but what they had, unlike anything the KNIL could boast, was the fully motorised capability. The half-tracks that pulled the guns and ammunition were festooned with the American fetish for extra machine guns. In addition to the twelve 75mm guns, they also had an anti-tank platoon with two 37mm guns.
Lt-Col Roelofsen talked with Tharp to try to decide the best way to use his force in conjunction with the other forces available. The Texans set about their task with a vengeance, preparing themselves to do what they had trained for. The lack of aircover was a perennial problem, but the ML-KNIL were fully committed to protecting the fleet attempting to intercept the Japanese invasion force.
The first signs that action was imminent were the flashes of gunfire off the coast. The coast watchers reported that a sea battle was underway, but was no way of knowing just exactly what was going on. Reports followed that landing forces were visible coming towards the beach.
Between the length of the coastline and the uncertainty of where a landing might take place, Roelofsen had chosen to use his marines in ambushes on the road towards the airfield, hoping to slow their advance down and bleed them. Some Home Guard troops were on hand to guide the marines from one position to the next.
The armoured cars, Overvalwagens, were an important part of the marines covering movement, but it was the Texans in their half-tracks armed with 0.3 and 0.5-inch machine guns who gave the Japanese Sasebo Combined Special Naval Landing Force the real problems. The Naval Infantry hadn’t been prepared for the level of resistance they were encountering.
A force of American destroyers had managed to get among the Japanese escorts and transports, sinking two of the transports, which had disrupted the landing process. The fact that the Japanese troops were coming in dribs and drabs, helped the Dutch and Americans to inflict higher casualties than if they were fighting a more organised unit. By noon on 24 January the battle was still underway, the outcome still undecided.
The reinforcements had begun arriving over the last week. The first to arrive was the Dutch Marine Battalion. Lieutenant-Colonel W.A.J. Roelofsen consisted of two companies of 125 marines and two companies of MBA (Marine Bewakings Afdeling Navy Guard Detachment). The latter were naval reserve personnel which returned to active duty to guard various facilities. The marines were well trained and very capable, the MBA companies were only really good for guard duties.
KNIL Army Captain F.B. van Straalen, commander of the 400 men of the Dutch garrison was glad to hand command over to Roelofsen but remained his second in command. The MBA companies were sent immediately to the airfield to reinforce the Anti-Aircraft Battery (2 x 40mm guns) and Anti-Aircraft Machine-Gun Platoon (3 x AAMG).
With two Marine companies reinforcing the KNIL Infantry Company, the other asset was 4 armoured cars, which van Straalen was using as a quick reaction force. This was still nowhere enough to defend the area. It was the arrival of the next reinforcements that gave Roelofsen hope to be able to do something effective.
VIII battalion of 6th KNIL Regiment (OC Major Doorman), just under 600 men, were mostly reservists who’d been mobilised and their training and fitness still needed some improvement. They were sent immediately to the airfield to improve the defences.
Most importantly was the arrival of the 2nd Artillery Battalion of 131st American Field Artillery Regiment of the Texas National Guard. Made up of about 750 men, under the command of Lt-Col Blucher Tharp, who were meant to have reinforced the Philippines. Three batteries of four 75mm guns were the core of the Battalion, but what they had, unlike anything the KNIL could boast, was the fully motorised capability. The half-tracks that pulled the guns and ammunition were festooned with the American fetish for extra machine guns. In addition to the twelve 75mm guns, they also had an anti-tank platoon with two 37mm guns.
Lt-Col Roelofsen talked with Tharp to try to decide the best way to use his force in conjunction with the other forces available. The Texans set about their task with a vengeance, preparing themselves to do what they had trained for. The lack of aircover was a perennial problem, but the ML-KNIL were fully committed to protecting the fleet attempting to intercept the Japanese invasion force.
The first signs that action was imminent were the flashes of gunfire off the coast. The coast watchers reported that a sea battle was underway, but was no way of knowing just exactly what was going on. Reports followed that landing forces were visible coming towards the beach.
Between the length of the coastline and the uncertainty of where a landing might take place, Roelofsen had chosen to use his marines in ambushes on the road towards the airfield, hoping to slow their advance down and bleed them. Some Home Guard troops were on hand to guide the marines from one position to the next.
The armoured cars, Overvalwagens, were an important part of the marines covering movement, but it was the Texans in their half-tracks armed with 0.3 and 0.5-inch machine guns who gave the Japanese Sasebo Combined Special Naval Landing Force the real problems. The Naval Infantry hadn’t been prepared for the level of resistance they were encountering.
A force of American destroyers had managed to get among the Japanese escorts and transports, sinking two of the transports, which had disrupted the landing process. The fact that the Japanese troops were coming in dribs and drabs, helped the Dutch and Americans to inflict higher casualties than if they were fighting a more organised unit. By noon on 24 January the battle was still underway, the outcome still undecided.
Not mentioned in the text, but I'm imagining that someone had the bright idea of stuffing troops on the ammunition/supply Half-Tracks? Given that 2/131st is an Artillery Battalion, I'm guessing they don't have troops assigned to the HTs as standard.
Excellent chapter! I expect the Dutch and American troops to be cheering as transports blow up.
Minor typo:
was probably intended to be something like:
Minor typo:
was probably intended to be something like:
ah yes the train is off the tracks and running right into the wilderness and the Japanese now have to ride the angry tiger which they've lost control of
So was the tiger on board the train or were you just trying for as many mixed metaphors as you could fit in a single sentence?
😋