Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[Ramp-Rat]

Force Z has three principal warships, two battleships and the only fleet aircraft carrier in British service designed for operations in the Far East. By this stage of the war, both of the battleships will be equipped with radar, as will the carrier, and a number of the escorting cruisers and destroyers. The battleships will have at minimum an air search system, along with a surface search and main gun director system. And given that Warspite was well known for the accuracy of her main armament, especially at maximum range, should she get among a Japanese invasion fleet, heading for Balikpapan. Unless the Japanese have major units themselves in place to act as escorts for the invasion forces, there is a good chance of them suffering significant losses. As long as Force Z, remains beyond fighter range, and is only subjected to attack by land based bombers, even the small fighter complement aboard Ark Royal. Will be sufficient to disrupt an attack enough to prevent it being able to be carried out in a coordinated manner. And provided that Force Z after carrying out its night attack against the Japanese invasion force, then retires south. Ark Royal should be able to provide sufficient protection against any subsequent air attacks, other then from a Japanese carrier group.


The appointment of Auchinleck as SAC ABDA, will have significant effects both in the short term and the long term. While at present he is basically trying to slap plasters on a series of wounds that require stitches. The fact that there is someone coordinating the actions of the very dispersant actors in this theatre, and can by persuasion in the case of the Dutch and Americans, and basically order the British, Australian and New Zealand forces. Means that finally there should be some strategic decision made, and plans made for when these forces are in a position to push back against the Japanese. Long term, when McArthur is forced by his government to evacuate the Philippines, as he will be, the American government can not afford for him to be captured by the Japanese. There will be no question of him assuming the position of SAC, the American government and president, will not be prepared to expend the political capital needed to overturn Auchinleck’s appointment. Auchinleck will have established extensive contacts among contacts with the various governmental and service commands in the area, none of which will be happy to have McArthur assume command and replace those officials in place, with his own little band of personnel followers.

RR.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I just had a thought. When Corregidor fell the Japanese forced General Wainwright to order all US forces in the Philippines to surrender as well, even though he had no authority to do so. This order was accepted both the the forces in the Philippines and the US Government as there was nothing they could do. TTL however if as is likely the Malay Barrier holds as well as a portion of Borneo the situation is different. There is a chance that at least the US forces on Mindanao could be given some support if they fight on before withdrawing into the interior to fight from there.

 

[Astrodragon]

A radar picket needs a decent amount of space, for the radar, operators, power as well as the antenna. A purpose-modified trawler type could work. I assume the Austra;ians have some available?

 

[MattII]

Force Z has three principal warships, two battleships and the only fleet aircraft carrier in British service designed for operations in the Far East. By this stage of the war, both of the battleships will be equipped with radar, as will the carrier, and a number of the escorting cruisers and destroyers. The battleships will have at minimum an air search system, along with a surface search and main gun director system. And given that Warspite was well known for the accuracy of her main armament, especially at maximum range, should she get among a Japanese invasion fleet, heading for Balikpapan. Unless the Japanese have major units themselves in place to act as escorts for the invasion forces, there is a good chance of them suffering significant losses. As long as Force Z, remains beyond fighter range, and is only subjected to attack by land based bombers, even the small fighter complement aboard Ark Royal. Will be sufficient to disrupt an attack enough to prevent it being able to be carried out in a coordinated manner. And provided that Force Z after carrying out its night attack against the Japanese invasion force, then retires south. Ark Royal should be able to provide sufficient protection against any subsequent air attacks, other then from a Japanese carrier group.


The appointment of Auchinleck as SAC ABDA, will have significant effects both in the short term and the long term. While at present he is basically trying to slap plasters on a series of wounds that require stitches. The fact that there is someone coordinating the actions of the very dispersant actors in this theatre, and can by persuasion in the case of the Dutch and Americans, and basically order the British, Australian and New Zealand forces. Means that finally there should be some strategic decision made, and plans made for when these forces are in a position to push back against the Japanese. Long term, when McArthur is forced by his government to evacuate the Philippines, as he will be, the American government can not afford for him to be captured by the Japanese. There will be no question of him assuming the position of SAC, the American government and president, will not be prepared to expend the political capital needed to overturn Auchinleck’s appointment. Auchinleck will have established extensive contacts among contacts with the various governmental and service commands in the area, none of which will be happy to have McArthur assume command and replace those officials in place, with his own little band of personnel followers.

RR.

MacArthur's position won't be helped by the fact that Brereton is now deputy air commander of ABDACOM.

 

[CB13]

for that it is probably easier to equip catalinas with radar (as was done otl)

That would be better, but was that an option in 1940-1941? I thought first of that type (with radar) was late-1942 and was US Navy only until numbers increased?

 

[MattII]

That would be better, but was that an option in 1940-1941? I thought first of that type (with radar) was late-1942 and was US Navy only until numbers increased?

Like the British didn't ewuip their own aircraft with Radar.

 

[pjmidd]

That would be better, but was that an option in 1940-1941? I thought first of that type (with radar) was late-1942 and was US Navy only until numbers increased?

FAA Swordfish used ASV radar to hunt, and attack in poor visibility, the Bismarck in May 1941 so Ark Royal should have some radar equipped planes onboard.

 

[MattII]

Actually, that opens up an even nastier tactical possibility, a night-time torpedo attack from the wrong direction. Get a unit of torpedo bombers north of them, and you could get them running towards your guns.

 

[Icedaemon]

Or maybe not, since night-fighting was something of an IJN speciality and those Long Lances can make a big hole in even heavy warships.

Exactly - Cape Mattapan anyone?

The Japanese might very well have trained for it

The British had fought and dominated in it

I think the issue of 'who's really prepared for night fighting' is not worth arguing over. The much more salient question is 'which side is more aware of the enemy's capability for such, and is prepared to take on a peer/ensure their side has an important advantage? At least in the former category, the Japanese senior officers are likely to respect the RN too much to assume they are a walkover. On the other hand, the RN has better radar and is more used to using their radar equipment for night-fighting.

Of course, Allan might choose to only focus on the land campaign even here, even though in a war for a massive island chain the sea and the land are even more interconnected than usually. The latest story post makes this unlikely, though. Combined arms is key to victory and the British have learnt that in North Africa already TTL. It's even moreso vital here. Better tanks alone are not war winners after all, just things that tilt the balance just so here and there, in the most immediate effect taking momentum and initiative away from the axis.

 

[MattII]

Looking on another thread (an ASOIAF one oddly enough), I came across the 'sleeping giant' quote, supposedly by Yamamoto. ITTL, I can just imagine someone asking him, "Were you talking about the Americans? Or the British?" Also, I can imagine Tojo shouting "You promised us six months to a year of victories!" to which Yamamoto could reply "Against the Americans, but you went and annoyed the British too!"

 

[X Oristos]

What do we know of the OTL Balikpapan?

Firstly, we know that the Japanese were hard pressed to maintan a CAP above the invasion fleet. According to the "Allied Defence of the Malay Barrier" they were hardly able to maintain 3 Zeroes over the fleet. Moreover, the aircraft were operating from a Jolo since Tarakan could not support mass air operations so early after its capture.

The convoy itself consisted of 16 transports and a close escort of 3 patrol boats and minesweepers. The distant covering force was 1 light cruiser, 10 destroyers and 2 seaplane tenders.

In OTL it was spotted multiple times from both aircraft and submarines. The Allies knew it was coming, its direction, speed and even the different grouping of transports and warships.

I think it goes without saying that the convoy will be destroyed and there won't be any danger to british capital ships. Even the most idiotic admiral won't send battleships to destroy transports in a knife fight with destroyers. That's why aircraft and long range guns are for. Moreover, in contrast to OTL the Dutch were able to concentrate their meagre air assets. And then there is Ark Royal. At best there are 3 Zeroes over the transports. At best. And Ark Royal's pilots were trained to night operations with some aircraft dropping flares and then Stringbags launching torpedoes. So they can attack both during day and night. There will be more than enough time for multiple air strikes - the nearest japanese airfield is 900km away.

So while I think that sooner or later we will watch a proper naval battle between Force Z and the IJN, I doubt it will be over this first attempt to capture Balikpapan.

 

[Stark]

But that was OTL, after Force Z was destroyed. IJN will either escort it more heavily or not send it until later?

 

[MattII]

But that was OTL, after Force Z was destroyed. IJN will either escort it more heavily or not send it until later?

Still screws up their timelines. Mind you, with Malaya still heavily contested, I can't image the Japanese are doing much with the Western Force, so maybe that got folded in?

 

[Orry]

Just a thought

How would American audiences react to news reels of 'Coloured' [sic] troops being victorious over troops that white Americans are losing to??

Given Jim crow etc how might this play in the south??

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

But that was OTL, after Force Z was destroyed. IJN will either escort it more heavily or not send it until later?

What with? The IJN is spread very thin covering all the operations is has going.

 

[MattII]

What with? The IJN is spread very thin covering all the operations is has going.

Maybe mix the Western Force in there?

 

[Ramp-Rat]

But that was OTL, after Force Z was destroyed. IJN will either escort it more heavily or not send it until later?

Given the changed circumstances of TTL, the Japanese would like to provide the Balikpapan invasion force with a heavier cover force. However to equal Force Z, will require two battleships, one of which has 16 inch guns, and a larger fleet carrier. While to better Force Z, you need at least three battleships two of which have 16 inch guns and two large carriers, plus additional cruisers, destroyers, etc. The big question is then where do these Japanese forces come from, and what other operations are cancelled, to enable this force to be assembled. We have reached a point ITTL, where the Japanese far from forcing the Allied forces to react to them, are beginning to have to react to the Allies. And thus just how fragile and short of resources the Japanese were, is increasingly being exposed. Note delaying the invasion of Balikpapan, just gives the Anglo Dutch more time to prepare for a Japanese invasion, and makes such an invasion more difficult.

RR.

 

[general]

Just a thought

How would American audiences react to news reels of 'Coloured' [sic] troops being victorious over troops that white Americans are losing to??

Given Jim crow etc how might this play in the south??

Would such news reels even be shown in the south?

 

[naraic]

Given the changed circumstances of TTL, the Japanese would like to provide the Balikpapan invasion force with a heavier cover force. However to equal Force Z, will require two battleships, one of which has 16 inch guns, and a larger fleet carrier. While to better Force Z, you need at least three battleships two of which have 16 inch guns and two large carriers, plus additional cruisers, destroyers, etc. The big question is then where do these Japanese forces come from, and what other operations are cancelled, to enable this force to be assembled. We have reached a point ITTL, where the Japanese far from forcing the Allied forces to react to them, are beginning to have to react to the Allies. And thus just how fragile and short of resources the Japanese were, is increasingly being exposed. Note delaying the invasion of Balikpapan, just gives the Anglo Dutch more time to prepare for a Japanese invasion, and makes such an invasion more difficult.

RR.

Thats assuming that the Japanese know what the principal ships of Force Z are when.

On 15 January 3 battleships and 2 carriers sailed towards Singapore. 1 battleship and a carrier left sailing back to Ceylon (with the carrier going onwards to the Mediterranean).

When launching Balikpapan the Japanese may have thought that Force Z was 2 carriers and 3 battleships.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Just a thought

How would American audiences react to news reels of 'Coloured' [sic] troops being victorious over troops that white Americans are losing to??

Given Jim crow etc how might this play in the south??

Quoting the Congressman from KKK City Arkansas

The Martial Races the British recruit into the Indian Army are obviously superior to the Filipinos the Americans had to rely on. Also the officers posted to the Philippines were obviously not the best or they'd have been commanding white troops.