Sir Joh & Queensland, how long?

How long could Sir Johannes "Joh" Bjelke-Petersen have remained premier of Queensland?

Given his nature and the 'style' of government in Queensland, and the impact it had on shaping the state, how long could he last as Premier with a reasonable point of departure?

Once the Fitzgerald Inquiry starts, I believe its far to late, however he could have continued on into the 1990s until his health declined if:
-He was not out of the state when the ABC airs "The Moonlight State" on Four Corners, which means that Bill Gunn as acting premier doesn't announce an enquiry;
-No changes that came out of the Fitzgerald Inquiry are going to happen, so the electorate remains gerrymandered massively in favour of the Nationals who can govern without the need of Liberal support.


Does the collapse of communism in Europe change things (much harder to use the Red Scare)
-What projects/developments are begun, given Sir Johs development, exploitive and growth economic emphasis, yet corrupt and shady operations (Dean Brothers etc);
-Do the police ever clean up their massive corruption without Fitzgerald or something similar, or does Terry Lewis & Co. continue unabated?

If Sir Joh continues, could he parachute his son into a safe seat and groom him as his successor? John Bjelke-Petersen would be in his late 30's by the early 1990s, and maybe Sir Robert Sparks, if still the President of the National Party continue as the backroom 'glue' that held the party together for a while longer, create a political dynasty?
 
As you note, once Fitzgerald starts, its all over, red rover for Joh and Co.

Without Fitzgerald, eventually the people of Queensland would realise what was going on as far as his corruption goes. My favourite outcome would be a falling out between Lewis, Hines and Joh. Lewis shoots Joh and Hines, preferrably wounding Joh and killing Hines. The ensuing court case reveals all. ;)
 
Its a big ask but I reckon you could add another term on. Stopping Fitzgerald shouldn't be too hard, Joh had been ignoring allegation from "those commies in the ABC" for decades and his base didn't care. However even under the gerrymander he still normally needed the Libs to govern and they are only going to put up with his crookedness for so long, especially if its starts hurting them federally.
Also his age means that his grip is going to weaken, its one thing to roll the most successful Premier Queensland's ever had, its another to knife a sick, old, man.
 
1986 was a surprise election victory for him, so even with no Fitzgerald inquiry '89 is going to be an uphill battle. Against Wayne Goss as Labor leader, no less.

Uh huh, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_1989:

Queensland1989.jpg

The Joh-for-PM campaign alone is going to make Joh's premiership look very weak. I don't know the exact dynamics of Queensland National Party & state conservative politics from the era, but that hamfisted attempt to destroy the federal Opposition leadership of John Howard isn't going to exactly shore-up Bjelke-Petersen's position in his own party room.

Queensland1989.jpg
 
Trouble with the OTL '89 election is that the National Party was basically unrecognisable from the one it took to the polls '86. Also, there was months worth of bad news coming from Fitzgerald when it rapped up in July, and they also dumped Ahern for Cooper in September as well. Adding shit upon shit.

Unless Goss really manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat somehow, without Fitzgerald, going up against a corrupt institutionalised establishment that basically wrote the book on dirty tricks and elections, against the public service and the police, would Goss go down as merely another Queensland Labor leader who couldn't beat Sir Joh? I would say yes, maybe gaining a few seats at best, depending on how the Libs play their cards in any three way contests.

Or maybe he remains content with letting Flo handle the Federal side of things?
 

Maybe I should have clarified--Joh actually lost the National Party leadership mostly because of his tilt at Canberra than because of Fitzgerald.

A timeline:

6 May 1987 Initial terms of reference are approved.
24 June 1987 Terms of reference expanded. Also in June a number of handpicked QPS officers are seconded from the QPS to investigate police.
27 July 1987 Sittings begin with Police Commissioner Sir Terrence Lewis as the first witness.
25 August 1987 Terms of reference are again expanded.
28 August 1987 Det. Snr Sgt Harry Burgess admits corruption and resigns.
16–17 September 1987 Assistant Commissioner Graham Parker admits corruption and resigns.
21 September 1987 Lewis is stood down as Police Commissioner.
2 November 1987 Retired Inspector Noel Dwyer admits corruption.
1 February 1988 Retired Inspector John Boulton admits corruption.
9 February 1988 Alleged ‘bagman’ Jack Herbert and his wife Peggy are arrested in London.
31 August –
22 September 1988 Herbert gives evidence, having been granted an indemnity.
11 October –
8 November 1988 Lewis gives further evidence.
9 November –
9 December 1988 Former ministers Don Lane and Russ Hinze and former Premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen give evidence.
19 April 1989 Lewis is removed as Police Commissioner.
3 July 1989 The Fitzgerald report is submitted to parliament.


Now, when did Sir Johannes Bjelke-Petersen resign as premier of Queensland?

1st, December, 1987. Before the conservative politicians were beginning to give testimony. When it's still mostly about police corruption.

That said, even granting that the failed tilt at Canberra doesn't happen, just as the Fitagerald inquiry doesn't happen, I think you're a bit too sanguine about the possibility of Joh winning another majority at what would almost be an 'unwinnable election' (and the last election was supposed to result in the Nationals being forced into coalition with the Liberals).

Qld Labor in '89 has Goss as parliamentary leader and Peter Beattie as state secretary. Even if everything goes well for Bjelke-Petersen he's most likely going to be forced into coalition if he beats Labor, and those Liberals will force him to go from the premiership earlier instead of later. Basically this PoD has him staying in power for no more than two and a half years, at the very most.

What is interesting IMO is the prospect of Labor winning office from Opposition in 1992, which is right after the worst of the early nineties recession. That would look unusual compared to what the ALP was copping in the other states at the time.
 
What is interesting IMO is the prospect of Labor winning office from Opposition in 1992, which is right after the worst of the early nineties recession. That would look unusual compared to what the ALP was copping in the other states at the time.

Remember this is Queensland we're talking about, if every other state is dumping Labor that'll just make them more appealing to the average banana bender. I do agree with you that while the Coalition can get a majority the Nats can't on their own and by '89 the Liberals are fundamentally opposed to both the Bjelkemander and Sir Joh.
Then again we are talking about Sir Joh so here's my three step plan.

Step 1: Sir Joh realises that trying to kill Howard isn't a brilliant idea and dumps the whole Joh for Canberra after someone points out that Federal Elections aren't run on the Bjelkemander.
Step 2: Sir Joh isn't out of the state and ignores the Courier Mail and ABC and doesn't commission an inquiry on corruption.
Step 3: The "it's time" factor and changing demographics on the Gold and Sunshine Coast means Joh is knocked back but the Nationals have either a narrow majority or are only one or two seats short.
Step 4: Sir Joh works his magic and one or two Liberals defect just like '83.
Step 5: ULTIMATE POWER!
 
Remember this is Queensland we're talking about, if every other state is dumping Labor that'll just make them more appealing to the average banana bender. I do agree with you that while the Coalition can get a majority the Nats can't on their own and by '89 the Liberals are fundamentally opposed to both the Bjelkemander and Sir Joh.
Then again we are talking about Sir Joh so here's my three step plan.

Step 1: Sir Joh realises that trying to kill Howard isn't a brilliant idea and dumps the whole Joh for Canberra after someone points out that Federal Elections aren't run on the Bjelkemander.
Step 2: Sir Joh isn't out of the state and ignores the Courier Mail and ABC and doesn't commission an inquiry on corruption.
Step 3: The "it's time" factor and changing demographics on the Gold and Sunshine Coast means Joh is knocked back but the Nationals have either a narrow majority or are only one or two seats short.
Step 4: Sir Joh works his magic and one or two Liberals defect just like '83.
Step 5: ULTIMATE POWER!

Would that qualify as a Queensland-wank or a dystopia?:D
 
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