Sino-Soviet War in 1969

Thothian

Banned
During the conflicts over the Chinese/USSR border in 1969 ( as well as their continuing disagreements over specific details of communism), the two powers nearly went to open war. The Soviets were considering a preemptive strike on China's small nuclear arsenal prior to a ground war. From what I've read, the US informed the USSR that use of nuclear weapons would likely lead to a worldwide war, so the Soviets backed down.

From what I've been able to turn up on the internet, China had somewhere around 70 nuclear weapons by 1970. So let's assume 60 in 1969.

With a POD of either:

1) The US makes no such threat as the above to the USSR, declaring neutrality

OR

2) The USSR laughs it off saying to themselves " the Americans will not go to war to protect a communist country"

What would be the effects ( short and long-term) of a nuclear exchange between the PRC and the USSR in 1969, followed by a full-scale conventional war?

Some interesting points to consider:

the effect on the Warsaw Pact and the communist hold on Eastern Europe
the Vietnam War
Soviet backing of communist rebels around the world
any others you can think of
 
What would be the effects ( short and long-term) of a nuclear exchange between the PRC and the USSR in 1969, followed by a full-scale conventional war?

Hmm, regarding the Vietnam War, I'd say that it put DRVN (North Vietnam) in a slight disadvantage. At this point (for the sake of ease, just say the war erupted on 00:00 1 Jan 1969), DRVN had already been used to some anti-air missile systems (not "pro" yet, but it'd still be in 1970 OTL). With the war erupted, the support from both PRC and USSR (advisor/expert and material support) would decrease (though it may not very strong, DRVN was practically fought with her hands at that point, she just need some material)

RVN/SaiGon regime (South Vietnam) may launch some propaganda and/or military campaigns, they may even invade the North (the support from USA is up to debate). Though I don't think they could eventually success.

Regardless of the USSR-PRC war, Vietnam would still be unified under the red flag of DRVN (though with a lot more blood and the US may not leave in peace), the unified-Vietnam would show (clear) support for neither side, probably become a block for "Third Communist faction". Pol Pot/Khmer Rouge would be disposed off (by Vietnam) sooner than in OTL.
 
Regardless of the USSR-PRC war, Vietnam would still be unified under the red flag of DRVN
But with USSR/China using nukes doesn't USA get a free pass to hit Hanoi with a 'tactical' weapons if they don't behave? I just question if the requirement to stand firm and show that US will not lose the CW v a now far more scary USSR with détente gone might make USA push for a win in Vietnam even if it has to effectively remove the north from the map in order to win....
 
But with USSR/China using nukes doesn't USA get a free pass to hit Hanoi with a 'tactical' weapons if they don't behave?

How? Why don't USA nuke a "border town" (either of USSR or PRC)? Using nuke on a capital, a capital of country they were... meddling with no less, may backfire (just say that Vietnamese back then was not the most peaceful sort of people)
 
The problem for the Chinese is that their air force probably won't be able to break through Soviet defenses. You might see one or two get through, but nothing that the Soviets can't fix. By contrast the Soviets will be able to get through the Chinese air defenses, and their missiles and bombers will destroy many Chinese cities.
 
The problem for the Chinese is that their air force probably won't be able to break through Soviet defenses. You might see one or two get through, but nothing that the Soviets can't fix. By contrast the Soviets will be able to get through the Chinese air defenses, and their missiles and bombers will destroy many Chinese cities.

Those same defenses that allowed some kid to fly a Cessna from Finland to Red Square in 1986? I'm just going to guess that at least a few bombers get through. Whether its enough to matter in the grand scheme of things is another issues. But enough to ruin the day of a few Soviet citizens.

The real issue is what happens if the Chinese start attacking ICBM targets in central Asia? If the Soviets fear losing these assets they may use em in the "use em or lose em" mode. Unfortunately, many of these will be targeted on the US.
 
China as has been stated has at most 70 nukes, with Soviet nukes being far more numerous and better air defenses its unlikely that most of them will get through. Lets say china gets lucky, their able to get two nukes through, hitting the biggest city in siberia and another city, China in response gets carpet nuked.

I cant understate this, this would be the worst thing to ever happen in chinese history. We are talking about the death of maybe 80% of china's population in less then a day. The russians win, but now they have to pay a diplomatic price for that win. The Soviet union looks a whole less friendly and a whole lot less cuddly now, China was on its own. With out a nukeclear umbrellia they were murdered. Their cities destroyed their civilazation wiped out.

People who sat on the fence now feel that they have to make a choice, so america winds up with more allies. The fight in vietnam goes worse for the north, america has more of a free hand and theirs more determination not to let the damned commies have this, and their not getting smuggled weapons from the chinese anymore. They still probally win, america was that tired of the conflict.

Now america is determined to make damned sure the soviets have their own vietnam, they fund rebel groups and poke and prod. The soviet union still collapses, they have too many internal problems, are over extended and bleeding resources.

Culturally things change massively.

In the 70s you had the martial arts craze, this craze is now on steroids. China isn't some communist boogie man, their now the sympathatic refugees who's country was destroyed by the evil russians. Chinese martial artists get more play in american cinima, and the trope of the tragic bad ass martial artist is born.

This goes on into the 80s when action films pick up and become more bombastic, asians get bigger roles in action movies often as the side kicks to the all american hero. The disulsioned former communist looking for revenge, a few movies looking to get a bigger audience have a trio white, black and asian all of them fighting against the evil commies.

During the 90s asian americans finally have enough cultural clout in cinima to really tell their side of the story, to explore just how horrible the war was and how much the chinese people suffered.

As for the survivors, what ever hate they had towards the japanese is forgotten, in 30 years the radiation is mostly gone, the soviet union collapses and with the collapse what ever government the Soviet union propped up falls with it. The new china seeths with anger at the russians, their won't be forgiveness for a long time if ever.
 
Those same defenses that allowed some kid to fly a Cessna from Finland to Red Square in 1986? I'm just going to guess that at least a few bombers get through. Whether its enough to matter in the grand scheme of things is another issues. But enough to ruin the day of a few Soviet citizens.

The real issue is what happens if the Chinese start attacking ICBM targets in central Asia? If the Soviets fear losing these assets they may use em in the "use em or lose em" mode. Unfortunately, many of these will be targeted on the US.

Tell that to passengers of KAL 007. It is mostly because of that incident Rust was allowed to fly unhindered - no one wanted to take the responsibility to order to shoot him down. He was detected all right.

Incidentally, if China makes a surprise attack, they might get through for a similar reason - top command would not be ready and guys on sight would not dare to open fire.
 
Tell that to passengers of KAL 007. It is mostly because of that incident Rust was allowed to fly unhindered - no one wanted to take the responsibility to order to shoot him down. He was detected all right.

Rust's plane was registered by the Soviet radar system over four and half hours before it reached Moscow, as soon as it crossed the Gulf of Finland into Soviet airspace. It was spotted visually and could have been shot down by two interceptors that were scrambled from the Tapa airbase in the Estonian SSR. A MiG-23 actually flew alongside of it (no easy feat considering the slow speed of the Cessna) for a while, over three hours before the landing on the Red Square, and its pilot reported the incident up the chain of command. So - I agree with you. The Soviet air defence knew of the flight for a long time before Rust reached Moscow. It was just that nobody thought that the small Cessna (that some apparently mistook for a Soviet Yak-12 trainer) would pose a threat to the Soviet Union. (Incidentally, I think there was cartoon strip in a Finnish newspaper at the time that implied that the Soviets were thinking it was one of their own spies returning home from the West.)

Things would be very different with actual, easily identifiable Chinese bombers.
 
How? Why don't USA nuke a "border town" (either of USSR or PRC)? Using nuke on a capital, a capital of country they were... meddling with no less, may backfire (just say that Vietnamese back then was not the most peaceful sort of people)
two nations are at war, both have nukes, one can hit us. I think the USA would refrain from using nukes lest anyone get the wrong message.

actually if a sino soviet war breaks out, I could see the Vietnam war quickly dying down so as to not escalate things, nations at war thrashing around is not healthy when nukes are on the table
 
China as has been stated has at most 70 nukes, with Soviet nukes being far more numerous and better air defenses its unlikely that most of them will get through. Lets say china gets lucky, their able to get two nukes through, hitting the biggest city in siberia and another city, China in response gets carpet nuked.

I cant understate this, this would be the worst thing to ever happen in chinese history. We are talking about the death of maybe 80% of china's population in less then a day. The russians win, but now they have to pay a diplomatic price for that win. The Soviet union looks a whole less friendly and a whole lot less cuddly now, China was on its own. With out a nukeclear umbrellia they were murdered. Their cities destroyed their civilazation wiped out.

People who sat on the fence now feel that they have to make a choice, so america winds up with more allies. The fight in vietnam goes worse for the north, america has more of a free hand and theirs more determination not to let the damned commies have this, and their not getting smuggled weapons from the chinese anymore. They still probally win, america was that tired of the conflict.

Now america is determined to make damned sure the soviets have their own vietnam, they fund rebel groups and poke and prod. The soviet union still collapses, they have too many internal problems, are over extended and bleeding resources.
their won't be forgiveness for a long time if ever.


IF it was to escalate to nukes, china would be using them tactically I would think if at all, THEY know the soviets have the nuclear upper hand, I would wager they would wait for the soviets to use them hopefully battlefield and not city busters, and hope the west and the rest of world come to their aid as victims of soviet aggression. I am unsure if they can hit Moscow, but obviously chelebinsk, Ekaterinburg, Vladivostok, Omsk, Tomsk are possibilities.

WORST THING IN CHINESE HISTORY? Christ .. worst thing in HUMAN HISTORY
The Soviet Union would become the worlds greatest mass murderer, Korea would reignite, Cambodia and Laos would become engulfed.

repercussions would range from total isolation, to a declaration of war against the Soviets if they used the bomb first. that said while we were buddying up with china, I could see the west letting them fight it out for a bit before joining in to make sure both sides were weakened then declaring war on the Soviet Union and salvaging what's left of China..

I would hate to be Nixon selling this war to the people
 
During the conflicts over the Chinese/USSR border in 1969 ( as well as their continuing disagreements over specific details of communism), the two powers nearly went to open war. The Soviets were considering a preemptive strike on China's small nuclear arsenal prior to a ground war. From what I've read, the US informed the USSR that use of nuclear weapons would likely lead to a worldwide war, so the Soviets backed down.

From what I've been able to turn up on the internet, China had somewhere around 70 nuclear weapons by 1970. So let's assume 60 in 1969.

With a POD of either:

1) The US makes no such threat as the above to the USSR, declaring neutrality

OR

2) The USSR laughs it off saying to themselves " the Americans will not go to war to protect a communist country"

What would be the effects ( short and long-term) of a nuclear exchange between the PRC and the USSR in 1969, followed by a full-scale conventional war?

Some interesting points to consider:

the effect on the Warsaw Pact and the communist hold on Eastern Europe
the Vietnam War
Soviet backing of communist rebels around the world
any others you can think of

If Nixon and Kissinger were half as ruthless as they are often claimed to be, they would have said "Give us a free and unhindered hand in Southeast Asia", and we'll give you can do what you want in China.
 
One factor which concerned the Americans at the time was that the Soviet (& Chinese) bombs weren't very "clean" and the prevailing winds would blow the fallout towards Japan.
 
If Nixon and Kissinger were half as ruthless as they are often claimed to be, they would have said "Give us a free and unhindered hand in Southeast Asia", and we'll give you can do what you want in China.

You know, I wouldn't rule that out.

I doubt Nixon gives Brezhnev a blank check, but a limited (even nuclear) defeat of the USSR in exchange for a broadened war (and mysteriously reduced Soviet aid) against Hanoi - I could see that.
 
You know, I wouldn't rule that out.

I doubt Nixon gives Brezhnev a blank check, but a limited (even nuclear) defeat of the USSR in exchange for a broadened war (and mysteriously reduced Soviet aid) against Hanoi - I could see that.
I doubt this too, china would get very badly danaged
 
I doubt this too, china would get very badly danaged

Oh, no question. Even in a limited war.

The thing with Nixon...he clearly was angling for a rapprochement with Beijing from Day One. What was lacking was the shift in Chinese (Mao's) attitudes which made it possible, and that shift only took place after the 1969 border scrap. Before that, Nixon doesn't have the opening. And it's hard to see him pressing the button over even a major Sino-Soviet War, though I can see him walking up to the line to pressure the Soviets to exercise some restraint.

Even so he appreciated that a catastrophic defeat of the PRC would work to the USSR's advantage, and the US's disadvantage, at least in the short run.
 

cgomes

Banned
How? Why don't USA nuke a "border town" (either of USSR or PRC)? Using nuke on a capital, a capital of country they were... meddling with no less, may backfire (just say that Vietnamese back then was not the most peaceful sort of people)

Public opinion'll just love nuking vietnam.
I like to think the vast majority of americans aren't bloodthirsty barbarians.
 
by 69 most Americans' realized it wasn't our fight.
if anything I could see the USA posturing and letting the two sides bleed a little and then mediating an end to the conflict

if the bomb is used that sets a very bad precedent, and no matter how blood thirsty kissinger or nixon might seem, neither would want to be what killed the USA.

if the usa stepped in on china's side, the soviets would think it an act of war.

the purpose of war is to have the other guy die for his country.
 
If the USA takes a hands off attitude, then what happens depends on happens on the ground. If the Russians only want to spank the Chinese locally then it may stay conventional. If they attempt to take out the Chinese nuclear program - delivery systems, bases, and atomic research/production sites then it may get very nasty especially if the Russians use nukes even small ones to do this. Mao seemed to have a rather cavalier attitude towards China's ability to absorb a nuclear strike, he may decide to use his nukes early on before the Russians can strike, in which case things go sideways rapidly. There is absolutely no way the Soviets fire off any nukes at the USA who is neutral here. The Chinese are not going to use their limited arsenal against missile silos pointed at the USA, they will use it against cities and more useful military targets. Losing a few ICBMs won;t cause the USSR to start a war with the USA, and if need be at least the warheads can be removed and secured.
 
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