Sino-Russo War Against Japan

Would it be possible, with a POD after 1850, in which the three powers still vie over control of North East Asia(Manchurian and the Korean Peninsula), is there a possibility of Russia and the Qing working together to defeat Japan?

If I recall correctly, it seems a major problem is in both the Russo-Japanese War and the First Sino-Japanese War, both of which are preferably avoided in this, Japan was considered the underdog, a perception that might have made China and the Russian consider each other a bigger threat though my memory is clouded.

One requirement I do see is that Korea is have been "liberated" from the Qing, similar to what the First Sino-Japanese War did, before the war for the Qing to ally with Russia. Otherwise I feel like, one, the Qing wouldn't be willing to ally with a potential rival and that, two, neither Japan nor Russia would really consider the Korean Peninsula and, particularly for Russia, Manchuria up for grabs.

Preferably the war would occur between during Empress Myeongseong's lifetime, though, assuming she comes to power, she might end up living longer or even shorter, and before the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. So does anyone believe that, with a non ASB POD after the first day of the year 1850 AD, a combined Qing-Russian force can defeat Japan in a war, ending it's drive for expansion? At least into north east Asia.

Basically if it is possible what would be the chain of events? From the POD to the war itself, will it only be Russia and the Qing against Japan or will perhaps Britain or France jump in, and the consequences of it after, with the Qing and Russian perhaps turning against each other afterwards or both being distracted by bigger concerns of the time.
 
그럴 가능성은 꽤 적다고 봐도 될것 같아요.
러시아는 중국의 만주가 더 가깝고 크기 때문에 한반도보단 만주를 노리고 싶을 거에요.
그리고 러시아-중국 연합이 될려면 일본이 더 과격해야 하는데, 요놈들이 얍쌉해서 함부로 나대지는 않을것 같아요 (한반도에서 하는 행동들 제외)
중국도 찔끔 선진화 해놓고 마구 나대는 성격이기때문에 일본을 크게 위협으로 보지 않았어어요. 알겠지만, 청일전쟁 직전에 나가사키 항에서 중국 해군이 큰 싸움을 일으킨적이 있었어요. 그만큼 중국은 일본을 아직도 자기 종속국인줄 알고 나댔어요.
만약 그래도 청러 연합대 일본의 전쟁을 보고싶다면,
1. 청대의 군대발전이 시급합니다. 그러면 영국과 중앙아시아에서 대치중인 러시아가 중국을 잠깐이라도 써먹기 위해서 같은편에 들수도 있어요.
2. 일본이 더 과격해져야 합니다. 예를들어, 2차 아편전쟁때 일본이 기회를 노려 아예 대만을 정복을 해야해요.
3. OTL 청일전쟁때가 가장 청러-일본 전쟁에 적합해요. 그때 거의 한반도가 일본에 넘어갈 분위기였으니까요. 청대는 황해 중심으로, 러시아는 동해 중심으로 일본을 한반도에서 밀어내는게 가장 정상적일것 같아요.
이만 청러-일본 전쟁 가능성에 대한 고찰 마침
EDIT: lol I was absentminded and I realized I wrote the whole thing in Korean.
I will fix as soon as possible.
 
Thanks for the input though sadly I do need the translated. I always do enjoy your posts though I nearly never post.
 
I think Hongzhang and other Chinese statesmen hated the Russians just as much as they hated the Japanese, if not more, but if China hadn't stayed neutral in the Russo-Japanese war maybe things could have turned the other way, more in a logistical sense than a practical military one because the patriotic Manchurians would be attempting to undermine whoever occupied them. In the long run, though, that would hurt China more because the balance would be destroyed and Russia would be the new oppressor. Japan was frequently limited by the Great Powers in its efforts in China because of racial prejudice, I'm not sure they would have done the same for Russia, especially after the Entente.
 
Say that the Sino Japanese War did happen with a China and Korea that begun modernizing much earlier, say decades earlier about the time of Japan. If China still lost but in much better position what could push it to not be neutral in the Russo Japanese War? Preferably before the Anglo Japan Alliance or in a world in which it did not happen.
 
그럴 가능성은 꽤 적다고 봐도 될것 같아요.
I think we can say there's a small possibility for that.
러시아는 중국의 만주가 더 가깝고 크기 때문에 한반도보단 만주를 노리고 싶을 거에요.
Russia, being closer to China's Manchuria than the Korean peninsula, will have the former as its primary target.
그리고 러시아-중국 연합이 될려면 일본이 더 과격해야 하는데, 요놈들이 얍쌉해서 함부로 나대지는 않을것 같아요 (한반도에서 하는 행동들 제외)
Also, for a Sino-Russian alliance, the Japanese needs to be more aggressive, but they are too smart to do that (leaving the Korean incidents aside)
중국도 찔끔 선진화 해놓고 마구 나대는 성격이기때문에 일본을 크게 위협으로 보지 않았어어요.
China characteristically gloated in its short modernization and did not view Japan as a threat.
알겠지만, 청일전쟁 직전에 나가사키 항에서 중국 해군이 큰 싸움을 일으킨적이 있었어요. 그만큼 중국은 일본을 아직도 자기 종속국인줄 알고 나댔어요.
As you may know, just before the first Sino-Japanese war the Chinese military seamen started a fight at the Japanese port of Nagasaki. China, as is obvious from the example, still thought Japan as its subordinate nation.
만약 그래도 청러 연합대 일본의 전쟁을 보고싶다면,
However, if you still want to see a war between Japan and the Sino-Russian aliance,
1. 청대의 군대발전이 시급합니다. 그러면 영국과 중앙아시아에서 대치중인 러시아가 중국을 잠깐이라도 써먹기 위해서 같은편에 들수도 있어요.
you need an early development(mechanisation) of the Qing military. Russia, with its Great Game with Britain in Central Asia, will try to use China as a temporary ally to balance things out.
2. 일본이 더 과격해져야 합니다. 예를들어, 2차 아편전쟁때 일본이 기회를 노려 아예 대만을 정복을 해야해요.
Japan needs to be more aggressive. For example, it needs to fully invade Formosa during the Second Opium War.
3. OTL 청일전쟁때가 가장 청러-일본 전쟁에 적합해요. 그때 거의 한반도가 일본에 넘어갈 분위기였으니까요. 청대는 황해 중심으로, 러시아는 동해 중심으로 일본을 한반도에서 밀어내는게 가장 정상적일것 같아요.
the timeframe for this war is most suitable at OTL first Sino-Japanese war, since this was when Japan was closest at actually taking over the Korean government. The most applicable method would be the Qing at the Yellow Sea, the Russians at the East sea and pushing the Japanese out from the Korean peninsula.
이만 청러-일본 전쟁 가능성에 대한 고찰 마침
Analysis on the question of Sino-Russian war against Japan FINISHED
 
Would it be possible, with a POD after 1850, in which the three powers still vie over control of North East Asia(Manchurian and the Korean Peninsula), is there a possibility of Russia and the Qing working together to defeat Japan?

Zeppelinair already discussed the main issues, but I'll add my feedback as well.

The biggest roadblock is that China was still reeling from the effects of the First Opium War from 1839-42, not to mention that the Second Opium War would still probably occur soon after 1850 as well, given the unresolved issues at hand. These developments essentially mean that China will still be divided into spheres of influence, making it more likely for the state to maintain a fragile balance of power instead of attempting to ally with only one country. In addition, the Treaty of Aigun, which was concluded in 1858 IOTL after the Second Opium War, would also be a major sticking point in Sino-Russian relations, as China never officially recognized the concessions outlined within the treaty, while the Russians would be loath to return the newly acquired territory due to Vladivostok's strategic location. Japan was also never considered as a major threat before 1895, and it would never attempt to openly antagonize either the Chinese or Russians before 1890 or so, as such a decision could backfire and severely devastate the Japanese military.

On the other hand, while it is theoretically possible for China to modernize in extremely optimal conditions, this essentially requires rearranging the entire government as a whole in order to embark on major reforms, which would be met with extreme distrust by the Manchu aristocrats, who would be wary of losing their grip on the Chinese populace due to their status as minorities. In addition, the Qing would probably attempt to seek more equal ties with other countries beforehand, as solely leaning in Russia's direction could theoretically prompt more active intervention by a coalition led by the UK, France, and the US in order to uphold the Open Door Policy, which wouldn't exactly be ideal.



I fully agree with these points.

Also, I know you admitted that it was a mistake, but just for reference, I think you and I are the only relatively active members on this board who can converse extensively in Korean, and other people, not to mention that other people, members or non-members, might be interested in our discussions, so they could learn from them as well.

As a result, I would appreciate it if you could limit conversations to English ones from now on.
 
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