Sino-North Korean War in 1968

[General Tirpitz]

I was reading B. R. Myer's excellent the Cleanest Race when this got my attention:

"Relation between Beijing and Pyongyang worsened in 1966 when China's leader launched the Cultural Revolution. Kim evidently worried that Mao fever might infect his own people, which in turn might encourage Beijing to attempt a coup or an invasion. This was no mere paranoia; Chinese troops did indeed make make a few provocative incursions across the North Korean border."

This made me to take look at Wikipedia and this is what I found:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_China%E2%80%93North_Korea_relations

In 1965, in the midst of the Sino-Soviet Split, in order to punish the North Korean regime for its lack of support, China is thought to have demanded that the 160 square kilometers around Paektusan be conceded to it as compensation for the economic and military aid provided by Peking during the Korean War (1950-53)[16] Between March 1968 and March 1969, various military skirmishes took place in the Paektusan region between the North Korean and Chinese armed forces. These were consequences of the tensions caused by the cultural revolution and the savage criticisms made of Kim Il-Sung by the Red Guards. During these years of unrest, Peking closed its border with its neighbor. China abandoned its claim in November 1970, in order to improve relations with Pyongyang. The abandonment of the Chinese claim was preceded by a rapprochement between Peking and Pyongyang from the start of the 1970s. In January, both governments signed a navigation agreement on the Yalu and Tumen rivers.

So, I started to think what would happen if some of those skirmishes accidentally escalated more and there was a real war between DPRK and PRC? How would the world react? And how would the war go?

(I think the war was extremely unlikely but it is interesting to make thought experiments.)

 

[TxCoatl1970]

JFG (just For Giggles) NE Asia Goes Tilt

From hindsight, the PRC didn't need to be making any waves ca 1966 as based on my sketchy info- the Soviets were ITCHING to kick them in the teeth toward the latter 60's especially, so Pyongyang would have no problems whatsoever getting whatever Sovet support they could desire.

How much that could be brought to bear when the PLA swarms over the borders is up for debate. The way I see it
-
PRC tells DPRK they're a bunch of counterevolutionary sticks in the mud and cancels food aid, mutual-defense treaty with DPRK etc. but don't go much further b/c they may be in ideological fervor, but not suicidal.

Soviets assure DPRK that they have full Soviet support if China threatens them. Maskirovka re: threatened purge of Maoist elements in DPRK serves as casus belli for the the Chinese to intervene.

Soviets pre-position Guards armies in case of spillover from Ussuri River firefights and possible PLA incursions.

Sanity CAN prevail here iand it be just Round 123 of saber-rattling between the PRC and USSR if it even goes that far.

However, pick your CCP VIP- Lin Bao, Hua Guofeng, or Mao insisting on border adjustments with Soviet deviationists and/or DPRK. They issue an ultimatum to Moscow and/or Pyongyang.
PLA and Red Guards "volunteers" mass toward Yalu River border.
(A rather interesting point is whether this expedition is a rogue faction of the CCP pulling a Marco Polo Bridge Incident (unofficially sanctioned stunt getting retroactive approval) or official move.) YMMV

Again, sanity can prevail on Chinese leadership's part not rising to the bait.
CCP can have a purge of inappropriately enthusiastic volunteers and step back from the abyss.

If sanity fails in Beijing, Chinese cross Yalu frontier and swamp DPRK border units. Casualties are horrible for Chinese volunteers, but sheer wieght of numbers alows them to make progress, maybe 100 km inside DPRK borders before Soviets cut off leading forces LOC/LOS. Soviets very quickly establish air superiority.

Significant progress made, by D-Day +10, Chinese volunteers are in a pocket getting pounded by Soviet mobile forces from north and west and aircraft and North Korean forces from south and east.

PLA Relief Expedition on D-Day +22 catches Soviet Guards divisions by surprise, manages to open several LOS and panics Soviet theater commander to get permission to release chemical weapons
on top of own troops.
Soviets lose 60000 troops, but PLA loses 250000 troops caught more or less in the open w/o CBW gear. Since they committed 1.5 million troops to this campaign, losses are ghastly.
Chinese threaten nuclear retaliation on Moscow only to have Moscow threaten annihilation of PRC.

Chinese leadership COULD have an attack of sanity, lock up the nutbars and sue for peace with Moscow.
If not, CSS IRBMs attack Moscow, Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, and Omsk.
Sovet retaliatory strikes on Beijing, Xilinhot, and key military targets in Manchuria, and Turkestan decap PRC leadership and cripple PLA response.

Casualties could reach 75 million between USSR and PRC in limited WMD exchange.

If Soviets respond with full retaliatory strike- PRC ceases to exist as a nation.
USSR gets several key cities glassed and a significant chunk of deployed forces in Far East but could soldier on.
I get a Vlad Tepes award for showing what happens when sanity fails on both sides.
Soviets don't need to be goading the Chinese in this scenario. They didn't OTL AFAIK.
As I stated at the OP- the Chinese were in no position to be throwing their weight around. Conventionally, they'd get pwned and when it came to nukes- they'd get in a lick or two the Soviets'd mourn and shrug off at the cost of certain Chinese annihilation.

In a straight-up fight with the DPRK- the PLA would prevail but with heavy losses. I'm assuming that the Soviets intervene to save their ally.

 

[Dan]

Would the west offer support to China as the "Good guys", or just leave the two to fight it out, and how would this affect contempory campaigns such as Vietnam?

 

[Alex1guy]

Would the west offer support to China as the "Good guys", or just leave the two to fight it out, and how would this affect contempory campaigns such as Vietnam?

They would sit there probably quite happy as the major power smacked each other up. However, I believe they leaned in favor of the USSR around this time in the face of China, someone correct me if Im wrong.

 

[General Tirpitz]

In a straight-up fight with the DPRK- the PLA would prevail but with heavy losses. I'm assuming that the Soviets intervene to save their ally.

Would Soviets really be ready to fight China over North Korea? It wasn't as close ally as say, eastern European countries, and its somewhat unorthodox views on socialism were already known in the Eastern Block. (East German diplomats actually called North Koreans Nazis in their internal discussions.)

They would sit there probably quite happy as the major power smacked each other up. However, I believe they leaned in favor of the USSR around this time in the face of China, someone correct me if Im wrong.

In late 60's there already was some interest moving towards PRC in the US though nothing concrete yet.

 

[SunilTanna]

From hindsight, the PRC didn't need to be making any waves ca 1966 as based on my sketchy info- the Soviets were ITCHING to kick them in the teeth toward the latter 60's especially, so Pyongyang would have no problems whatsoever getting whatever Sovet support they could desire.

How much that could be brought to bear when the PLA swarms over the borders is up for debate. The way I see it
-
PRC tells DPRK they're a bunch of counterevolutionary sticks in the mud and cancels food aid, mutual-defense treaty with DPRK etc. but don't go much further b/c they may be in ideological fervor, but not suicidal.

Soviets assure DPRK that they have full Soviet support if China threatens them. Maskirovka re: threatened purge of Maoist elements in DPRK serves as casus belli for the the Chinese to intervene.

Soviets pre-position Guards armies in case of spillover from Ussuri River firefights and possible PLA incursions.

Sanity CAN prevail here iand it be just Round 123 of saber-rattling between the PRC and USSR if it even goes that far.

However, pick your CCP VIP- Lin Bao, Hua Guofeng, or Mao insisting on border adjustments with Soviet deviationists and/or DPRK. They issue an ultimatum to Moscow and/or Pyongyang.
PLA and Red Guards "volunteers" mass toward Yalu River border.
(A rather interesting point is whether this expedition is a rogue faction of the CCP pulling a Marco Polo Bridge Incident (unofficially sanctioned stunt getting retroactive approval) or official move.) YMMV

Again, sanity can prevail on Chinese leadership's part not rising to the bait.
CCP can have a purge of inappropriately enthusiastic volunteers and step back from the abyss.

If sanity fails in Beijing, Chinese cross Yalu frontier and swamp DPRK border units. Casualties are horrible for Chinese volunteers, but sheer wieght of numbers alows them to make progress, maybe 100 km inside DPRK borders before Soviets cut off leading forces LOC/LOS. Soviets very quickly establish air superiority.

Significant progress made, by D-Day +10, Chinese volunteers are in a pocket getting pounded by Soviet mobile forces from north and west and aircraft and North Korean forces from south and east.

PLA Relief Expedition on D-Day +22 catches Soviet Guards divisions by surprise, manages to open several LOS and panics Soviet theater commander to get permission to release chemical weapons
on top of own troops.
Soviets lose 60000 troops, but PLA loses 250000 troops caught more or less in the open w/o CBW gear. Since they committed 1.5 million troops to this campaign, losses are ghastly.
Chinese threaten nuclear retaliation on Moscow only to have Moscow threaten annihilation of PRC.

Chinese leadership COULD have an attack of sanity, lock up the nutbars and sue for peace with Moscow.
If not, CSS IRBMs attack Moscow, Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, and Omsk.
Sovet retaliatory strikes on Beijing, Xilinhot, and key military targets in Manchuria, and Turkestan decap PRC leadership and cripple PLA response.

Casualties could reach 75 million between USSR and PRC in limited WMD exchange.

If Soviets respond with full retaliatory strike- PRC ceases to exist as a nation.
USSR gets several key cities glassed and a significant chunk of deployed forces in Far East but could soldier on.
I get a Vlad Tepes award for showing what happens when sanity fails on both sides.
Soviets don't need to be goading the Chinese in this scenario. They didn't OTL AFAIK.
As I stated at the OP- the Chinese were in no position to be throwing their weight around. Conventionally, they'd get pwned and when it came to nukes- they'd get in a lick or two the Soviets'd mourn and shrug off at the cost of certain Chinese annihilation.

In a straight-up fight with the DPRK- the PLA would prevail but with heavy losses. I'm assuming that the Soviets intervene to save their ally.

I find it much more likely that the Soviets will attempt to disarming nuke strike on the Chinese, the moment hostilities get hot (or perhaps when they are imminent) rather than wait for a Chinese 1st strike and then retaliate. A disarming striking has a good chance of succeeding in wiping out all Chinese strategic forces in the 60s.

 

[1940LaSalle]

My first thought would be that the west would sit back and let the two big guys slug it out while sort of rooting for the USSR as perhaps the lesser of two evils. Then I realized that this would have been about the time Viet Nam was gearing up for the US, and one has to wonder: would one of the "best and brightest" propounded the view that with both the USSR and PRC occupied, could a massive buildup in Viet Nam succeed in winning? If some boy genius sells this idea, much of Asia is in flames.

I'd guess that a surge in Viet Nam might be mostly successful since the North Vietnamese would be essentially on their own. It might even succeed to the point of getting close enough to Hanoi to make Ho Chi Minh get out of town fast. Should that happen, North Vietnam might fold but it could be a semi-hollow victory: a lot of remaining unreconstructed Viet Cong, as it were, constantly making trouble for Saigon. This might allow a significant US pull-out roughly seven or eight years earlier than in OTL, but Saigon would have trouble pacifying the nation as a whole without bringing in some of the more moderate ex-North Vietnamese leaders to help quell the situation.

Also: what of South Korea? Is there collateral damage that gets Seoul in a fighting mood? Would there be a move to side with the PRC in a deal with the devil to re-unify Korea? Or would they sit it out, figuring that when all is said and done, there won't be much left north of the 38th parallel worth going after?

 

[The Vulture]

I imagine it'd be a huge propaganda coup for the Western bloc- see how our enemies can't even keep peace among themselves, and so on. It might also challenge the predominant view that the Communist countries were all one monolithic club that operated the same all over.

 

[stjernkjempe]

My first thought would be that the west would sit back and let the two big guys slug it out while sort of rooting for the USSR as perhaps the lesser of two evils. Then I realized that this would have been about the time Viet Nam was gearing up for the US, and one has to wonder: would one of the "best and brightest" propounded the view that with both the USSR and PRC occupied, could a massive buildup in Viet Nam succeed in winning? If some boy genius sells this idea, much of Asia is in flames.

I'd guess that a surge in Viet Nam might be mostly successful since the North Vietnamese would be essentially on their own. It might even succeed to the point of getting close enough to Hanoi to make Ho Chi Minh get out of town fast. Should that happen, North Vietnam might fold but it could be a semi-hollow victory: a lot of remaining unreconstructed Viet Cong, as it were, constantly making trouble for Saigon. This might allow a significant US pull-out roughly seven or eight years earlier than in OTL, but Saigon would have trouble pacifying the nation as a whole without bringing in some of the more moderate ex-North Vietnamese leaders to help quell the situation.

Also: what of South Korea? Is there collateral damage that gets Seoul in a fighting mood? Would there be a move to side with the PRC in a deal with the devil to re-unify Korea? Or would they sit it out, figuring that when all is said and done, there won't be much left north of the 38th parallel worth going after?

I think South Korean leadership is going to be frantic about getting a rematch now when China is AGAINST North Korea. US might not be as eager to get into a direct confrontation whit USSR but THIS IS a good proxy war for USSR and USA as both could hold their troops back whit the argument that they don’t want to provoke each other but in the same time supply their side whit arms to be tested out against each other.

It would go something like this: 1) The DPRK vs PRC brawl breaks out 2) RoK forces provoke skirmishes whit DPRK forces taking advantage of the vacuum the PRC invasion is creating. 3) USSR warns USA from crossing into DPRK territory or ells dot dot dot. 4) USA warns USSR from getting involved in the RoK and DPRK brawl or ells dot dot dot. 5) High tension a la Cuban crisis between USSR and USA before they both back down and agree to keep out of direct intervention in the conflict. Both of pretend to force PRC, DPRK and RoK to stop the fighting. Maybe an UN embargo is declared on PRC to give good face to USSR. 6) But USSR supplies DRPK whit weapons to be tested against American hardware and USA supplies RoK whit whatever they need. 7) PRC and RoK come to a shadow agreement about some minor border adjustments in the north and then crush DPRK.

 

[Whanztastic]

Would Soviets really be ready to fight China over North Korea? It wasn't as close ally as say, eastern European countries, and its somewhat unorthodox views on socialism were already known in the Eastern Block. (East German diplomats actually called North Koreans Nazis in their internal discussions.)

They nearly went to war without North Korea's help:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

In late 60's there already was some interest moving towards PRC in the US though nothing concrete yet.

Only Nixon could go to China. Nixon was the only POTUS candidate who really wanted to as well. After a Sino-Soviet war, who knows what the US would do. Probably just stand back and hope more nukes land on the ruskies.

 

[Zajir]

I honestly think that the ROK would provide aid to DPR Korea, because while Park Cheung-Hee was a great anti-communist, he was first and foremost a nationalist, he can't afford to let China conquer half of the Korean Peninsula.

 

[General Tirpitz]

They nearly went to war without North Korea's help:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

But those were only border clashes. It's unlikely that China attacks if Mao isn't exactly sure that Soviets don't do anything which might destroy his whole country. And even IOTL Soviets first asked Americans when they were considering the first strike. I don't see Americans having any reason to reply any other way than they did historically.

 

[MattII]

Could they split the place 3 ways? I imagine that under such a scenario:

• The USSR would get Rason and North Hamgyong, as well as some bits of Heilongjiang and Jilin to give a decent land connection, and give them a bit of breathing room around Vladivostok

• China would get both Pyongans, Chagang, Ryanggang and South Hamgyong

• South Korea would end up with both Hwanghaes, Kangwong, and Pyongyang

This really works to everyone's advantage, China gets a port in the Sea of Japan, the USSR gets several more all-year ports, and a more secure connection with Vladivostok, and South Korea gets more territory and loses their dangerously random northern neighbour.

 

[Whanztastic]

But those were only border clashes. It's unlikely that China attacks if Mao isn't exactly sure that Soviets don't do anything which might destroy his whole country. And even IOTL Soviets first asked Americans when they were considering the first strike. I don't see Americans having any reason to reply any other way than they did historically.

Just saying that tensions were high already between USSR-China and if PRC did invade N. Korea, that may push it over the edge.

 

[General Tirpitz]

Just saying that tensions were high already between USSR-China and if PRC did invade N. Korea, that may push it over the edge.

I have thought this little more and I have feeling that as long as the war stays on the border and doesn't become the PLA's march to Pyongyang, Soviets might be okay with the situation as the war would be a serious hit for Chinese PR. This of course depends on Chinese war aims and PLA's capabilities. (Do they want a regime change, do they just want to remind that they are a respected great power an militarily more powerful than NKoreans or do they want to take some territories?/Is the PLA even fit for the job?) Even though NKoreans were nominally allied to Soviets, many in the Eastern block also thought them way too aggressive. Compared to Eastern European peace propaganda, NKorean propaganda has always stressed their country's readiness to die for the unity of Korea and the Kim dynasty and this didn't go unnoticeable to diplomats from other communist countries.

OTOH if China really crushes NKorean forces and starts to move towards the capital, the situation will be very different and Soviets might be forced to act.

 

[fscott]

I was reading B. R. Myer's excellent the Cleanest Race when this got my attention:

"Relation between Beijing and Pyongyang worsened in 1966 when China's leader launched the Cultural Revolution. Kim evidently worried that Mao fever might infect his own people, which in turn might encourage Beijing to attempt a coup or an invasion. This was no mere paranoia; Chinese troops did indeed make make a few provocative incursions across the North Korean border."

This made me to take look at Wikipedia and this is what I found:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_China%E2%80%93North_Korea_relations



So, I started to think what would happen if some of those skirmishes accidentally escalated more and there was a real war between DPRK and PRC? How would the world react? And how would the war go?

(I think the war was extremely unlikely but it is interesting to make thought experiments.)

From February 17, 1979 – March 16, 1979 China invaded North Vietnam and based on which side is talking China got its a** handed to them. This was less than 5 years after Saigon fell. Would China do any better against N Korea? What happens if the North asks the South for assistance?

 

[JacktheCat]

The late '60s were a bad, very very bad time for a general war to break out in Asia.

1) China was coming apart at seams with the Cultural Revolution; the sociopath Lin Bao was about to make his bid for power.

2) Russia was so pissed at China that war was a very real possibility.

3) Japan was being rocked by leftist demonstrations/riots; it's large Korean minority population were big fans of the DPRK; the Red Army was about to be born

4) Indonesia was inches away from a three civil war between the communists, the army, and Sukarno.

5) Australia had siginificant portions of it's military deployed in South Vietnam.

6) the ROK had some of it's best military units and leaders deployed in South Vietnam.

7) the USA and especially Europe were being rocked by widespread riots and demonstrations; France and West Germany were this close to going up in flames.

8) the Israelis and Arabs were about to have another go at each other.

9) The USA and Vietnam, Noth and South.

Am I leaving anything out?

 

[33k7]

The late '60s were a bad, very very bad time for a general war to break out in Asia.

1) China was coming apart at seams with the Cultural Revolution; the sociopath Lin Bao was about to make his bid for power.
2) Russia was so pissed at China that war was a very real possibility.
3) Japan was being rocked by leftist demonstrations/riots; it's large Korean minority population were big fans of the DPRK.
4) Indonesia was inches away from a three civil war between the communists, the army, and Sukarno.
5) Australia had siginificant portions of it's military deployed in South Vietnam.
6) the ROK had some of it's best military units and leaders deployed in South Vietnam.
7) the USA and especially Europe were being rocked by widespread riots and demonstrations; France and West Germany were this close to going up in flames.
8) the Israelis and Arabs were about to have another go at each other.

Am I leaving anything out?

the 60s suck big time

 

[Grimm Reaper]

If the USSR and PRC are at war then how is North Vietnam able to get necessary armaments. I don't see Moscow shorting their own troops for Hanoi's sake, least of all in time of war.

 

[Whanztastic]

If the USSR and PRC are at war then how is North Vietnam able to get necessary armaments. I don't see Moscow shorting their own troops for Hanoi's sake, least of all in time of war.

They don't, negotiated peace unless the South and the US push their luck.