Sino Japanese War post 1945

Here is a quote that I find very relevant to a war in the 50s regarding OTL 1990s how the USSR would have handled it potentially
If Soviet forces were in danger of being overwhelmed by sheer numbers of Chinese troops, the Soviets would be likely to employ chemical weapons, against which the Chinese have little capacity to defend themselves and a limited capability to reply in kind.

Japan's weapons research would include chemical and biological weapons of course, which makes a declaration of war by the Chinese themselves a disastrous idea during the 50s quite possibly
 

RousseauX

Donor
Here is a quote that I find very relevant to a war in the 50s regarding OTL 1990s how the USSR would have handled it potentially


Japan's weapons research would include chemical and biological weapons of course, which makes a declaration of war by the Chinese themselves a disastrous idea during the 50s quite possibly
how good are 40s japanese chemical weapons against a prepared army?

I mean everyone thought in 1915 WWI chemical weapons was a huge game changer and it's gonna be a war winning weapon and it turned out not to be the case
 
On the other hand, what matters for Japan is holding down and developing the core, which would be east of the Liao and south of the Songhua. In OTL Japan managed to dominate this core despite sending millions to the Chinese front, so not having to expend the manpower and resources in a Sino-Japanese War means absolute domination. Furthermore, the cultural genocide of the Kouminka movement was a reaction to the war, so without that sort of intensified and backlash-inducing measure, there would be an extension of the 1930s "normalizaton" where the colonial system is just a fact of life.
The issue is that even when the colonial system is "just a fact of life," it still means that a large proportion of the Chinese underclass are being exploited terribly for the benefit of Japanese industrialists and the army. Another contradiction is that Manchuria isn't a nation, but an occupied territory that legally belongs to a proud and resurgent neighboring country. People stuck in Manchuria are bound to see themselves as incredibly unfortunate and oppressed compared to their countrymen living in the ROC.
 
The issue is that even when the colonial system is "just a fact of life," it still means that a large proportion of the Chinese underclass are being exploited terribly for the benefit of Japanese industrialists and the army. Another contradiction is that Manchuria isn't a nation, but an occupied territory that legally belongs to a proud and resurgent neighboring country. People stuck in Manchuria are bound to see themselves as incredibly unfortunate and oppressed compared to their countrymen living in the ROC.

Virtually all resistance was crushed in OTL by a hamstrung Japan. If there was no Sino-Japanese War, it only means Japan could use even more carrots and sticks to completely dominate its core occupation areas. Given that it would take decades for China to even reach OTL Manchukuo's standard of living (never mind ATL), I would say your notions are overestimating the thoughts of the average Chinese underclass.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Virtually all resistance was crushed in OTL by a hamstrung Japan. If there was no Sino-Japanese War, it only means Japan could use even more carrots and sticks to completely dominate its core occupation areas. Given that it would take decades for China to even reach OTL Manchukuo's standard of living (never mind ATL), I would say your notions are overestimating the thoughts of the average Chinese underclass.
OTOH it's possible without northern China as a buffer if China focuses on manchuria the guirella war would be a lot worse

on the long run the Japanese can't hold Manchuria: 1945 though chances are the balance of power haven't shifted enough for it to be a sure thing but the Japanese army was never that good and even with manchuria it doesn't have enough industry to build a european style mechanized army. But then again it's unlikely the NRA was gonna get that much better in 8 years compare to otl.


Given that it would take decades for China to even reach OTL Manchukuo's standard of living
China as a whole maybe but if you are talking about the prosperous parts like the Yangtze delta or Guangzhou it wouldn't take that long at all

actually, why would standard of living rise much in manchuko?

neither the english industrial revolution in its first 50 years nor the soviet one for first couple decades raise standard of living much. And the Japanese are probably going to focus on heavy industries which has dubious impact on standard of living for the average chinese in manchuria.

I do agree with you a ethnic chinese guirella war probably wouldn't be decisive factor in 1945.
 
how good are 40s japanese chemical weapons against a prepared army?

I mean everyone thought in 1915 WWI chemical weapons was a huge game changer and it's gonna be a war winning weapon and it turned out not to be the case
Well, against a prepared army, not that great. They'd cause casualties because they might not have their protection on at all times, and the Japanese can use long range artillery and air bombardment. In WW1 mustard gas was incredibly dangerous, and could not be countered, but here they'd be able to import stuff from either the USSR (OP-1/L-1 etc.) or US/NATO. The PLA only started producing their own gas masks in 1964. It is really after they have the falling out with the USSR that my quote takes place, and in restrospect I am not sure why the PLA wouldn't have the necessary equipment, considering any one of us could go online now and buy an L-1 suit for 50 bucks, except maybe their supplies just cannot meet the demands of the Chinese army ITTL. Considering that there are well over 5 million infantry in any potential Chinese army at war with the Japanese, it isn't hard to believe this could be the case. They could import the required amount of gas masks easily enough. The suits I am not sure. This isn't even to mention whether or not they'd neglect this particular area of their army, in which case the chemical weapons would be a game changer and there would be millions of casualties on the side of China just from the mustard gas.

They still pose a threat to a prepared military, however, what is probably more worrisome for the Chinese is whether or not the Japanese would restrain themselves from targeting the civilian population of China.
 
Virtually all resistance was crushed in OTL by a hamstrung Japan. If there was no Sino-Japanese War, it only means Japan could use even more carrots and sticks to completely dominate its core occupation areas. Given that it would take decades for China to even reach OTL Manchukuo's standard of living (never mind ATL), I would say your notions are overestimating the thoughts of the average Chinese underclass.
There was almost no resistance worth mentioning because IOTL the ROC wasn't in any position to offer support. It didn't mean that the Japanese were particularly effective at getting people to like them. Japanese industrialization plans entailed horrid treatment of millions of forced laborers, who had something like a 50% death rate in many cases. The worst mining accident in history was at a coal mine in Manchukuo, where Japanese guards decided to cut off ventilation to a burning mine shaft and leave 1,500 people to die in it. In other aspects of Japanese rule, even absent military atrocities like Unit 731, you had like a fifth of the local population intentionally addicted to opium and an obscene number of women kidnapped for sexual slavery.
As for carrots and sticks, the only Chinese people the Japanese military and industrial establishments treated with some measure of decency were collaborators and their families. In demonstrated practice, the rest were completely expendable.
 
Looking over the 1937 military forces & trying to project it forward ten - fifteen years. It looks to me like Japan will still have a much superior navy. This limits China to overland operations against Manchuria. In the air it is not so clear how much better margin Japan might retain. China has a better opportunity here to obtain parity.
 
Looking thing over further my take is a naval blockade of China would be part of a Japanese strategy. Formosa provides a good starting point for that, & the Ryukyu Islands are useful, and is the south end of the Korean peninsula. Japan would likely have a plan in place to seize Hainan, both to assist the blockade & as a bargaining item for the eventual peace negotiations. After that its possible seizures of major ports as in OTL. I don't see China having any naval counter to Japanese sea power by 1950. A small submarine fleet perhaps, or some torpedo boat flotillas may have some sting. Other surface ships won't be more than tactically competitive. The air is where China may acquires some ability to strike back. Unless one or the other has been at war with the USSR there will not be the battle experience that made the Japanese tactically superior in 1941 OTL. Neither can we assume the better points of Japanese aircraft make them relatively superior in 1950. If ROC has invested heavily in air power, and not handicapped itself with corrupt commanders & poor training, then it can do some damage to Japans fleet elements in the near blockade interdiction of smugglers & blockade runners.

What happens on the NW front facing Manchuko I'll not try to guess at this point. Just to many variables unsorted.
 
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