If the Japanese don't expand their war to fight the United States and seize oil resources in the Dutch East Indies, they would have to come to the peace table with China (Probably mediated by the United States a la Russo-Japanese War). The Japanese would probably be given very limited territorial gains against the Chinese, and the Chinese would get reimbursed for the territorial losses in the form of modern arms, infrastructure improvement, or something like that (The US might be the ones paying for this to both improve relations with China and to help soothe the Japanese).
The Japanese military would be furious at this, and start looking for a way to end their reliance on foreign oil. Shale plants in Manchuria would go a long way towards this, and Japanese interest would likely lead to an earlier discovery of the Daqing Field in Manchuko. Depending on any territory gains, they might also gain Shengli Field.
In the immediate future, Japan not attacking the United States would keep them from entering the war against Germany (Previous threads generally agreed that Germany would probably go on to win their war against the USSR in '41 or '42). With the war ending, Americans would feel largely justified in their isolationist stance, particularly after demonstrating the power of the new Bomb they had developed. Vichy would be recognized as the official government of France, though the British might push though with recognizing the Free French colonies as independent states (As a last stubborn punishment against the French who gave up so early and their enemies who would want Vichy to keep the colonies).
However, the British recognizing some of France's former colonies as independent states would likely backfire as other European Colonies would vie for Freedom. The colony Japan would be most interested in would be the Dutch East Indies. When the Indonesians start their war against the Dutch (Of course, depending on Post War Europe, there might be a Netherlands State in addition to a Dutch East Indies State), the Australians would assist the Dutch and the Japanese would assist the Indonesians in a proxy war. The Japanese would likely win and set up a pro-Japan government there.
The Philippines might stay close to the United States, afraid to go for more independence in fear of Japan exerting its will on them. But with increasing isolationism, the US could just leave the island nation to sink or swim.
In any case, sometime in the 1950's, with multiple sources of independent oil under their belt, Japan would reopen the war against China. With the feeling in American minds that military action is unwanted (or even unnecessary), Japan would have free reign in China to do whatever they wanted.