Sino-Japanese War in 1915

What if China flat out refused the 21 demands Japan issued them in 1915 and the situation escalated to war?
 
I'd think it's without a doubt that Japan would hold the advantage but maybe pressure from the United States and Britain could hamper their war effort. Maybe the US will even go as far as to impose an embargo, or just refused to give Japan any loans.

The various Chinese proto-warlords might come together in a unifying nationalistic war against Japan. Avoiding the warlord period altogether.
 
If the German foreign office was smart they'd try to use this to drive a nail between the Japanese and the rest of the Entente.

Of course, we know it wasn't smart.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If the German foreign office was smart they'd try to use this to drive a nail between the Japanese and the rest of the Entente.

Of course, we know it wasn't smart.

The Germans actually did try moves along these lines during and before the war, they just had no real leverage to have an impact on things.
 
What if China flat out refused the 21 demands Japan issued them in 1915 and the situation escalated to war?
I'm not sold on this not being able to fully tear Japan away from the Entente. Even by the 21 Demands of OTL both the US and UK were furious. If Japan indeed uses the opportunity of Europe being busy in Europe to invade China, everybody - especially the US - would be extremely angry. Not sure if this would lead to a war between Japan and the US, but there definitely will be a diplomatic crisis.
However Japanese militarism will grow even if it drags them to war and diplomatic isolation. Without international institutions such as the UN and Bretton Woods in place as was post-WWII, there is simply no replacement for foreign policy and fiscal policy than economic imperialism.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
What if China flat out refused the 21 demands Japan issued them in 1915 and the situation escalated to war?
Japan an early ally of the Entente - Japans Entente-partner UK as well as the US furios about the 21 demands - nevertheless war between China and Japan - - - China later still (?) joining the Entente with declaring war against Germany in hope to get support against the japanese (as China didi IOTL). -

A war between Entente-"partners" ...
who will sit and get what on the peace-negotiation tables as it would most likely have no impact on the outcome ? ...

... or might we see Japan being pissed by getting harassed for its war in China by UK and US even quitting the war and joining the CP ??
 
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