Sino-Japanese conflict over Sakhalin?

Is it possible for a major conflict to result from occupation of the island? In 1616, around 400 Chinese soldiers were sent to it to check if there were a Jpanese threat on it while a Japanese colonization attempt of it occurred in 1679.

If Japan recognized the value in occupying a large island right next to Manchuria, perhaps earlier, and the Qings realized it, what would be the result? Is it possible for Japan to do so?
 
Well, given the Tokugawa Shogunate's unwillingness to get tangled in adventures abroad I think the likely demand is that the Qing tell Japan to back off, and Japan backs off.

Even with knowledge of the existence of the Dutch and Portuguese and their tech - and I'd imagine their weapon productions will probably have atrophied a bit - the Qing Empire is still the monster of the world (in fact, it is the world) as far as Japan is concerned, so I don't think Japan would be too keen on provoking the dragon.
 

Redhand

Banned
Well, given the Tokugawa Shogunate's unwillingness to get tangled in adventures abroad I think the likely demand is that the Qing tell Japan to back off, and Japan backs off.

Even with knowledge of the existence of the Dutch and Portuguese and their tech - and I'd imagine their weapon productions will probably have atrophied a bit - the Qing Empire is still the monster of the world (in fact, it is the world) as far as Japan is concerned, so I don't think Japan would be too keen on provoking the dragon.

I'm not sure if Qing court factions are a huge deal at this time but they may prevent the application of force outside of mainland Asia for stability purposes. Of course I do not think dynastic decay had set in by this point but at the same time the Tokugawa may try to appease the Qing nonetheless. An interesting question would be if Russia takes Siberia ahead of schedule and sets their eyes on Sakhailan, creating a three way power struggle. Add the Dutch to the mix and who knows what happens.
 
I'm not sure if Qing court factions are a huge deal at this time but they may prevent the application of force outside of mainland Asia for stability purposes. Of course I do not think dynastic decay had set in by this point but at the same time the Tokugawa may try to appease the Qing nonetheless. An interesting question would be if Russia takes Siberia ahead of schedule and sets their eyes on Sakhailan, creating a three way power struggle. Add the Dutch to the mix and who knows what happens.

If it was Vietnam or Burma, I would take a more ambivalent attitude re. the Qing Court. But Sakhalin (i.e. Kuye) is so close to Manchu homelands (Sakhalin is a corruption of 'Saghalian', e.g. Amur River) that a threat to encroach on it might well trigger a strong reaction.

If Russia takes Siberia ahead of time and then Sakhalin, I'd expect a low-intensity border war along the entirety of Manchurian until a Nerchinsk-like treaty finally settles the border (likely in favor of the Chinese, who can put more economic and military pressure into the local area).
 
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At what point was it even known to be an island? IMHO Japan would be more likely to look at it favourably if they realise it is not joined to the mainland Chinese empire, but this fact was certainly NOT known to the British and French at the time of the Crimean War. IIRC the Russians had learnt it, allowing their fleet to slip away, but when did the Japanese know this?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
What would Japan do there?

Is it possible for a major conflict to result from occupation of the island? In 1616, around 400 Chinese soldiers were sent to it to check if there were a Jpanese threat on it while a Japanese colonization attempt of it occurred in 1679.
It did?
I've not heard of this. Who did that?
That's...weird, totally goes against Tokugawa policy.

The Japanese didn't even particularly bother with Hokkaido until the 19th century. And then that was largely just to stop Russia moving in rather than expansion for expansion's sake.
 
What would Japan do there?


It did?
I've not heard of this. Who did that?
That's...weird, totally goes against Tokugawa policy.

The Japanese didn't even particularly bother with Hokkaido until the 19th century. And then that was largely just to stop Russia moving in rather than expansion for expansion's sake.

Google "1679 Sakhalin" and see :)

This one is useful for answering both your query and mine

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=...0CC8Q6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=1679 sakhalin&f=false

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
What would Japan do there?


It did?
I've not heard of this. Who did that?
That's...weird, totally goes against Tokugawa policy.

The Japanese didn't even particularly bother with Hokkaido until the 19th century. And then that was largely just to stop Russia moving in rather than expansion for expansion's sake.

http://www.zum.de/whkmla/sp/0708/marshall/marshall3.html
Under "Ia.". They thought it was part of Hokkaido, so it didn't exactly go against the policy.
 
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