Sino-Japanese alliance

kernals12

Banned
Is it in any way possible for China to back Japan in WW2? If it is, how does that affect the war and the postwar world? I would imagine that the US would be occupying at least a part of China and could do what they did in South Korea, meaning rapid economic growth and a transition to democracy.
 
Seeing as Japan humiliated the Qing, took concessions from them, refused to return Germany's concession in Shandong after WWI, seized the traditional Chinese tributary of Korea as a colony, seized the Han majority land of Manchuria, among many things, no. Any Chinese government will be trying to retake its former number 1 place in Asia and that is in direct conflict with Japan's goal of the same. They will not back Japan, not while Japan holds Chinese lands, and Japan will not roll over to appease any other power while it's in its expansionistic phase. Manchuria is seen as too valuable to Japan's growth to return and a resurgent China is Japan's greatest nightmare, aside from an eastward looking Soviet Union. Further Sino-Japanese conflicts were pretty much guaranteed after the first one and there's absolutely no chance of rapprochement unless one becomes overwhelmingly powerful (If it's China, Japan's probably not going to be coming into conflict with the US since the Second Sino-Japanese war was what necessitated seizing the Dutch East Indies for military resources. If it's Japan, it'll be trying to conquer the rest of China or force it into its Co-Prosperity Sphere like in OTL, just more successfully, so it wouldn't be backing so much as being forced to/collaborating with the occupiers).

Also, American occupation+funding isn't some panacea (look at South Vietnam).
 
The best POD for a pro-Japanese government of China would be for Chiang Kai-shek to be killed during the Xi'an Incident--which came close to happening:

"Just before the attack at Lintong, Zhuang Xueliang had cabled Mao that he was about to act. Mao told his secretary, 'There will be good news in the morning.' At noon the next day a radioman rushed into Mao's cave and handed him an urgent message from Zhang Xueliang. One by one the CCP leaders hurried into the leader's primitive headquarters to hear the news. When Mao read out the news, the cave echoed with excited laughter and gleeful voices. Zhu De, Zhang Guotao, and others wanted to see Chiang and his fellow KMT generals killed immediately. Mao, 'laughing like mad,' felt the same way. Nonetheless, he immediately sought guidance from Moscow, proposing that Chiang be delivered for trial by 'the people.' Then the Chairman sent obsequious messages to the Young Marshal, calling him the 'national leader in resisting Japan,' extolling his 'world-shaking moves,' and hinting that he should deal with Chiang 'resolutely.'

"News of the kidnapping reached Moscow a few hours later, but unlike Mao, Stalin did not laugh; instead, he immediately saw that the event could be disastrous for the Soviet Union. The next day the Comintern received Chen Lifu's message and very likely read reports that He Yingqin had ordered Central Army divisions--probably the elite units--to move toward Xi'an and also had urged Wang Jingwei to rush home [from Europe--where incidentally he met with Hitler and discussed China joining the Anti-Comintern Pact-- DT]. The possibility suddenly loomed that the Generalissimo would be killed and Wang and He would establish a pro-Japanese government. Stalin sent a flash message to Mao telling him in no uncertain terms that the Soviet Union disapproved of the 'plot'--and suggesting that it was being staged by the Japanese. He ordered Mao to hold friendly talks with Chiang, find a peaceful solution, and release the KMT leader. In response to Stalin's orders, on December 15 a public telegram signed by Mao, Zhou [Enlai], and Zhu announced that the CCP stood for a peaceful solution of the 'Xi'an incident' and that any hasty moves would 'only delight the Japanese.'..." https://books.google.com/books?id=DUg2KGMQWHQC&pg=PA129
 
"Wang Jingwei to rush home [from Europe--where incidentally he met with Hitler and discussed China joining the Anti-Comintern Pact-- DT]. The possibility suddenly loomed that the Generalissimo would be killed and Wang and He would establish a pro-Japanese government."

That in itself (while outside the scope of this thread) would make an incredible POD, an Axis China fighting against the Allies.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The best POD for a pro-Japanese government of China would be for Chiang Kai-shek to be killed during the Xi'an Incident--which came close to happening:

"Just before the attack at Lintong, Zhuang Xueliang had cabled Mao that he was about to act. Mao told his secretary, 'There will be good news in the morning.' At noon the next day a radioman rushed into Mao's cave and handed him an urgent message from Zhang Xueliang. One by one the CCP leaders hurried into the leader's primitive headquarters to hear the news. When Mao read out the news, the cave echoed with excited laughter and gleeful voices. Zhu De, Zhang Guotao, and others wanted to see Chiang and his fellow KMT generals killed immediately. Mao, 'laughing like mad,' felt the same way. Nonetheless, he immediately sought guidance from Moscow, proposing that Chiang be delivered for trial by 'the people.' Then the Chairman sent obsequious messages to the Young Marshal, calling him the 'national leader in resisting Japan,' extolling his 'world-shaking moves,' and hinting that he should deal with Chiang 'resolutely.'

"News of the kidnapping reached Moscow a few hours later, but unlike Mao, Stalin did not laugh; instead, he immediately saw that the event could be disastrous for the Soviet Union. The next day the Comintern received Chen Lifu's message and very likely read reports that He Yingqin had ordered Central Army divisions--probably the elite units--to move toward Xi'an and also had urged Wang Jingwei to rush home [from Europe--where incidentally he met with Hitler and discussed China joining the Anti-Comintern Pact-- DT]. The possibility suddenly loomed that the Generalissimo would be killed and Wang and He would establish a pro-Japanese government. Stalin sent a flash message to Mao telling him in no uncertain terms that the Soviet Union disapproved of the 'plot'--and suggesting that it was being staged by the Japanese. He ordered Mao to hold friendly talks with Chiang, find a peaceful solution, and release the KMT leader. In response to Stalin's orders, on December 15 a public telegram signed by Mao, Zhou [Enlai], and Zhu announced that the CCP stood for a peaceful solution of the 'Xi'an incident' and that any hasty moves would 'only delight the Japanese.'..." https://books.google.com/books?id=DUg2KGMQWHQC&pg=PA129

How many factions of the KMT government, and how much of its nominal armed forces, would stay loyal to Wang Jingwei and Ho Ying-chin's Nanking government in such circumstances? And how many would join a coalition with the Communists, Zhang Xueliang and Yang Hucheng, the co-conspirators of the Xian incident?

Would a Wang Jingwei - Ho Ying-chin government focused on anti-communism be pliable enough that Japan could avoid clashing with it, or would the Japanese "men on the spot" eventually even force a rupture with this government?
 
How many factions of the KMT government, and how much of its nominal armed forces, would stay loyal to Wang Jingwei and Ho Ying-chin's Nanking government in such circumstances? And how many would join a coalition with the Communists, Zhang Xueliang and Yang Hucheng, the co-conspirators of the Xian incident?

Would a Wang Jingwei - Ho Ying-chin government focused on anti-communism be pliable enough that Japan could avoid clashing with it, or would the Japanese "men on the spot" eventually even force a rupture with this government?

I would think that, especially if it was seen as taking a pro-Japanese line, the government would not only be unpopular with the public but could very well face a rebellion by warlords--who might even be willing to align themselves with the Communists. One must remember that Chiang Kai-shek himself faced a rebellion as late as 1936. As I stated in a post at soc.history.what-if, "It is noteworthy that the last major warlord revolt against Chiang--that of the Guangxi Clique of Li Zongren and Bai Chongxi and the Guangdong ruler Chen Jitang in the summer of 1936--called itself the "Anti-Japanese National Salvation Army." According to Eastland, p. 256, originally Chen proposed "rebelling in the name of opposition to the 'illegal constitution' that had been proclaimed on May 5. The Kwangsi [Guangxi] leaders laughed off this suggestion, however, recognizing that the draft constitution was anything but a visceral popular issue. Finally, they hit on the solution. As Huang Hsu-ch'u [Huang Xuchu] recalls, 'But what purpose should we proclaim? To win the people's sympathy and still proclaim righteousness, nothing surpassed 'resistance to Japan.'' The Southwest would, in other words, join forces with the potentially powerful national salvation movement." Most likely what really worried the Southwest warlords was that Chiang, by first suppressing the Fujian rebellion http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujian_People's_Government and then driving the Communists out of the provinces just north and west of Guangdong and Guangxi--and keeping his army in those provinces even after the Communists had escaped to the North during the Long March--was tightening his control and threatening Guangxi and Guangdong's autonomy. The cruelest blow came when Guizhou, under pressure from Nanking, diverted the opium trade from Guangxi (Eastland, p. 253). But however cynical the "anti-Japanese" justification of the rebellion, the fact that its leaders did make that their banner proved how popular the slogan of resistance to Japan was. Chiang simply could not have ignored such sentiment even if he wanted to." https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/_vd0b3FYC-4/tFnugDFJCQAJ And the same would IMO be true for any government that would be established if Chiang were killed.
 
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