Sino-German alliance

This has probably been discussed before, but what would be the outcome of a Sino-German alliance versus the OTL German-Japan alliance?

Does the KMT stay in power and drive off the CCP? Is it able to fend off the Japanese? If China is not able to conquer as much of Chinese as it did OTL, would it still attack Pearl Harbor (assuming the oil in Manchuria isn't found) to "cripple the USA?" Also consider that the attack on Pearl Harbor was partly the result of Japanese egoism, which may not have been as great if it did not do well in China.
Maybe China would become a superpower later on? Or would it go on the warpath and try attacking the USSR or something?

Does this change anything in the West? I can't really think of much, except that if Japan is not so potent then Germany could be defeated easily and amybe even the A-Bomb would be used in Germany.
 
i dont think the chinesse would fight as hard agianst the allies and backstab germany when japan is defeated.

japan would still go peral harbor, they now are completly shuned from the world powers they have no choice.

so alliance with china means germanys screwed.

also china could try to destroy the ccp but they would just regroup and try agian later. ussr would still do augest storm when germanys finished, its just that they would do it on china instead.

a japan, china, germany alliance would work better.
 
But then you'd have to have China and Japan not fight each other, and I'm not sure how possible that is.
 
have the japs go on a europe 1st stratagy? something like:
"look at the chinesse we look the same, we are both asians and we have both been exploted by the west. we are not so different its the west we must punish" and have them go for the colonys instead.

anyways i read in a book about communist china that the japs and germans attempted to get the kmt to sign an anti red pact aimed at su and internal communists.
 
Here's another question, though...

If Germany is supporting China, wouldn't this mean that the USA and UK would reluctantly support Japan, the same way that they would reluctantly fight Finland in WW2? It would become harder for FDR to also help the Nationalists as well--to the point where the USA would simply hold his nose and continue trading with Japan while attempting to subdue the main enemy, Germany.

I don't think Pearl Harbor would happen if the USA/UK are supporting Japan, however reluctantly, against a pro-Germany China.
 
Without a German/Japanese alliance, Pearl Habour or no, the USA has no causu belli to go into Europe, at least no until later on possibly for a few years.

I similary dont see the US stopping support for the KMT simply because they're getting weaposn form the Germans
 
Without a German/Japanese alliance, Pearl Habour or no, the USA has no causu belli to go into Europe, at least no until later on possibly for a few years.

I similary dont see the US stopping support for the KMT simply because they're getting weaposn form the Germans

Getting weapons, no, but that's well below what I would consider an "Alliance".

I speak of the KMT launching an offensive to retake Hong Kong and Chinese Forces trickling into Indochina/Burma to oppose the Allies. This level of activity would almost certainly force the Allies to support Japan.

Question to the OP: What do you mean by Sino-German Alliance? If Japan becomes a lukewarm member of the Allies as a result, big changes are coming...
 
Well by "alliance" I meant Germany having stronger relations with China than Japan. The way you set it up is fine, perhaps more interesting than just "Germany sells weapons"
 
When Colonel Max Bauer doesn't die from fever in a Chinese hospital in 1929, there's a good likelyhood that something like a Sino-German alliance might occur.
He continues reforming the Chinese military, lets his good connection to the German arms industry play, and finally on a visit to Germany convinces Hitler that China is the ideal proving ground for tactics and armament.
German technology and know-how are transferred, Krupp and Rheinmetall set up production facilities, Chinese officers are trained in Germany and German instructors train the Chinese troops.
Result: A far better performance of the Chinese, frustrating the Japanese even more than they did in OTL. So, the Japanese might start looking for other targets quite earlier than they did in OTL.
 
Without a German/Japanese alliance, Pearl Habour or no, the USA has no causu belli to go into Europe, at least no until later on possibly for a few years.

Make that months.
The US were sending warships to annoy German U-Boote ambushing convoys, and the German U-Boote obliged by torpedoing and sinking those warships. Let it happen a few more times than in OTL, and I think the casus belli will be strong enough to convince the US lawgivers and population.

Casus, not "causu", BTW. A case of war.
 
When Colonel Max Bauer doesn't die from fever in a Chinese hospital in 1929, there's a good likelyhood that something like a Sino-German alliance might occur.
He continues reforming the Chinese military, lets his good connection to the German arms industry play, and finally on a visit to Germany convinces Hitler that China is the ideal proving ground for tactics and armament.
German technology and know-how are transferred, Krupp and Rheinmetall set up production facilities, Chinese officers are trained in Germany and German instructors train the Chinese troops.
Result: A far better performance of the Chinese, frustrating the Japanese even more than they did in OTL. So, the Japanese might start looking for other targets quite earlier than they did in OTL.

But part of the reason the Allies aren't going to be hit by Japan is that the Allies are going to be forced to support Japan over China in one shape or another, assuming that this situation is anything more than a simple German-Chinese friendship.

In the case of just a continued German/Chinese Friendship, the allies are going to be in a pickle. Can they attempt to support another Chinese Warlord against Chiang? Can they come out of the diplomatic situation without having to fight either China or Japan? Can the Allies persuade Chiang to their efforts instead of Germany? Certainly the Logistics make it pretty much impossible for Germany to remain China's supplier after 1939, although perhaps the Soviets can strike a bargain with both Parties.

The Critical Question I foresee is whether the USA and UK are forced into supporting Japan, even if that support is nothing more than turning a blind eye to Japan's actions. If China is clearly attacking Allied assets, there is no question of the outcome. If China is doing something else, like basing German Aircraft for bombing the Dutch East Indies or otherwise showing a co-beligerent attitude, I would think that the Allies would have to swallow dealing with Japan.

The Japanese CAN NOT attack the Allies if they are supplying Japan with War Materials--and that's why the war is likely to be very different. Japan needs those war materials...and it needs to cut Allied Support for China. If China is an Axis power, or a co-belligerent state leaning Axis, the Allies will both keep the trading ties to Japan open and cut support for China. In both Cases, Japan will not escalate the war to include the Allies.

Its the third situation--a Pro German but Neutral China--that I'm having a problem deciphering. If Finland is the model to use of a friendly state on the wrong side of the war, I can imagine that the Allies would probably either attempt to mediate a peace deal or since that is likely to fail, slowly kill trade with Japan while attempting to bring Chiang into their orbit. That would be close to OTLs situation, except that Japan might be very reluctant to augur the full wrath of the United States alone--Japan was prepared to fight the Soviets in exchange for the German Declaration of War against the USA, and I would interpret this as a recognition that Japan would really rather not fight this war--and its possible that this is enough of a butterfly that the war doesn't happen because the USA gets into a war against Germany in Early 1942 and the USA relaxes its pressure on Japan as a result.

It's a race situaton--will Japan choose war before the USA is already embroiled in one and is willing to negotiate?
 
Hitler's interest in such an alliance, or perhaps better: good cooperation, would be to have someone who really could do damage to the Soviet Union. The Japanese, while dragging Germany into a war with the USA, never really engaged opposite the Russians.
Chiang and Hitler have common enemies: the communists. If Japan is early on frustrated out of China, Chiang can - with German technology, such as aircraft and armoured cars - quell the CCP. In revenge, the Chinese can support Germany by cutting the Transsiberian Railway (using guerillas and ethnic minorities?) once the Russo-German war commences - and of course by binding Soviet forces (which didn't work in Japan's case because of Dr. Sorge's information that Japan had no intend to go to war with Russia).
 
go through afgan or sikang. doubt they have they troops for it and the infrastructer is s*** at best so they would never make it with regulars that r busy with japan and brits.

i think he ment that china funds minority gurrilas in the area to attack the railway.
 
Right. China never will act on its own, no way. But they might encourace Uigur or Turk "resistance". Find a true "Mongo/Hun" heritage and people around the Transsib may be motivated to take aim of the "outlandish" Russians.
 

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What effect would this have on the Germany arms industry? Perhaps it is better prepared and the German economy is better poised for the war. Perhaps Germany is richer as she has more exports and critical resources from the east. Also perhaps German tank research is further along as engineer are able to set up in China and experiment tactics is a constant war that was China at the time. Also, think earlier Condor legion and a better prepared army, as more officers have combat experience.
 
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