Sinicized versions of Christianity or Islam gaining power in China?

I would think it would be possible, but the rise of other religions would be even less likely than the rise of Buddhism. The Buddhist areas of India and Central Asia are closer, and have had longer and deeper commercial ties. And Buddhism has a head start. The White Horse Temple was reportedly founded in the first century, and a Buddhist community existed under a Han Dynasty prince at around the same time. So the Buddhist links in China are really old, predating Manichaeism and Islam completely.

I had read that, while this is the case, Buddhism was really pushed hard into Chinese society by a particular western invader* around the 4th Century...

*forget the name
 
I had read that, while this is the case, Buddhism was really pushed hard into Chinese society by a particular western invader* around the 4th Century...

*forget the name

Yes, this is true. Buddhism was supported by the Xianbei tribes who conquered North China. However, Buddhism was supported vigorously, and maybe even more so, by the Han Chinese in South China.
 
Yes, this is true. Buddhism was supported by the Xianbei tribes who conquered North China. However, Buddhism was supported vigorously, and maybe even more so, by the Han Chinese in South China.

This was the Liu Song Dynasty, correct? FWIG, it was a pretty bloody period for the region*, which supposedly ties in the period's poetry and (less clearly) Buddhist flowering.

*"The crown prince has killed the Emperor! We must replace this dishonorable tyrant with his incestous brother!"
 
I'm sorry to make you waste the time and energy writing the long post, but I don't think you know what the Butterfly Effect is. It's the idea that a small change can have larger effects later on. It's hard to explain, but you might want to look it up.

I know what it is. The choice of Han Wu Di is the small change that will have extremely large and long term effects. The Revived Confucianism with the "components" in OTL is not his only option. In 134 BC, Han Wu Di summoned all scholars from every philosophical sects at the time in the empire, and asked them to propose a solution. He didn't come up with it himself, nor he only consulted Dong Zhongshu. We do not know what other original options were. But with thousands of scholars it's safe to say Han Wu Di had many many choices.

I dare not guess why Han Wu Di chose what he chose, but there must be other smart scholars proposed equally viable solutions as well as the one from Dong Zhongshu. Perhaps Han Wu Di just chose it since it's least like his grandmother's policy of a passive Taoism philosophic view. Remind that he was still very young at the time, and most of his childhood to young adult was shadowed by his powerful grandmother without any real power. And the actual policies he adopted later in OTL is not like the one Dong Zhongshu proposed (not exactly). It's actually became more like Legalism than Confucianism. It even has a name called "儒外法裡", which means although Han Wu Di said he would push policies based on Confucianism, but in fact the policies were designed more like Qin Legalism ones. (This shows the original version Dong Zhongshu proposal was possibly not a good one, perhaps even a bad one that requires a lot of modification to be viable in real politics)

I do think if the alternative option of the Revived Confucianism with the "face" more like Xun Zi's sects (like inherited bad human natural philosophy). Then upper class should be more acceptable to religions like Christianity with concept like Sins. Perhaps a lot of what "Confucius said" will also be different with what we know today. There were a lot editing/banning after this decision. Scholars chose certain texts instead of others to fit the bill, a lot original texts were lost. And scholars centuries later tend to seek answers very literally from "ancient texts", not knowing what the original version was. (But by now from archeology we know a lot of the so called "ancient texts" were changed due to these "editing", and are different from what we dug up before this period)
 
Exactly, a Sinicized Christianity would simply fit it into the religion with little or no problem. A bit stronger than the Divine Right of Kings, but not too strong.
The Mandate of Heaven isn't a religion. It's a social and political concept and tradition that dates back to the foundation of the Zhou dynasty (the oft envisaged "Golden" Age of Chinese society, as the Confucians viewed it). Neither also would political philosophies such as Confucianism count, given they're strict focus on the physical, and rejection of metaphysical elements in analyses (this changes with neo-Confucianism, but only then does it simply expand the bounds of the philosophy itself).

Both Daoism and Buddhism are major religions, however the former is a "home-grown" religion, so to speak and thus is highly receptive amongst the people and intellectuals because of its native origins, and the latter is a "foreign, barbaric" religion, which gained the popularity it did in China due to syncreticism, the turmoil and sponsorship of the various states during the Northern and Southern dynasties period, and the continued sponsorship of the Tang dynasty throughout its long reign. The establishment of Buddhism in China is a remarkable, and continuous growth by the various monasteries, and state sponsorship during a tumultuous era. In a sense, they fulfilled the same role as medieval European monasteries in being at the forefront of productive technologies (situating themselves atop mountains, and such).

If you want to learn more, pick up Lewis's China Between Empires: Northern and Southern Dynasties. His books on Imperial Chinese history (from the Qin at present up until the Tang [just recently published]), are absolutely brilliant in describing the social, political, economic, cultural, and religious practices, developments, etc., during the periods in question, in a relatively readable and engaging text (it jumps around alot, mind, but so does the subject material he has to work with). I'm personally waiting for the rest of the series to come out (give it a few years).

Now in regards to Christianity in China, the PoD needs to be quite early. In all honesty, it's probably too late for Islam to leave a lasting mark in China. Christianity, maybe, but is suffers from being a monotheistic religion (very difficult to spread, given the breadth of the Chinese mythological "pantheon", so to speak, whereas Buddhism can coexist with the many deities), the fact it is a foreign, barbaric religion (Buddhism is also foreign, but it was reviled during the time period of its spread as well by the intelligentsia for it, despite often times extremely heavy promotion [things like tax exemptions for example] of Buddhism by the state [from both the Northern and Southern dynasty period really through to the Yuan]). Plus add to the fact the holy sites, major religious scholars, etc. are extremely distant and thus contact is very limited for the spread of Christianity to occur (you can have small communities of Christians living in China, as per OTL). In Buddhism's case, we have extensive interaction between developing Chinese monasteries with Tibetan, Indian (at the time), and other major Buddhist stronghold to help foster the spread, translation, and development of new religious doctrines. Any such contact between China and Europe will necessarily be limited.

So given these factors (barring things like Taiping being successful [unlikely]), it's probably borderline ASB for Christianity to develop deep roots in China.

I do think if the alternative option of the Revived Confucianism with the "face" more like Xun Zi's sects (like inherited bad human natural philosophy). Then upper class should be more acceptable to religions like Christianity with concept like Sins. Perhaps a lot of what "Confucius said" will also be different with what we know today. There were a lot editing/banning after this decision. Scholars chose certain texts instead of others to fit the bill, a lot original texts were lost. And scholars centuries later tend to seek answers very literally from "ancient texts", not knowing what the original version was. (But by now from archeology we know a lot of the so called "ancient texts" were changed due to these "editing", and are different from what we dug up before this period)
Oh yes. One of the biggest issues you'll find with things like the Five Confucian Classics and the Four Books of Zhu Xi. With the Five Confucian Classics, modern historical dating of the various texts by comparing the linguistics of it to historical details come up with a range dating from the Zhou to the Han dynasties. The Classic of History, for example is divided into four major periods (purporting to be from the Zhou, the Shang, the Xia, and the mythical Lu dynasties respectively). It's fascinating for the various political philosophies it develops (i.e. the conflict between meritocracy v. aristocracy, the ultimate role of the state, etc.), but in terms of dating, only the Zhou period passages are probably historically accurate. The Shang and Xia passages can be dated to the Warring States period or later, and the Lu passages can be dated to the Han dynasty pretty definitively (the Lu passages are written as if by a Han dynasty scholar, based on the style and historical references and anachronisms, etc.). The Four Books of Zhu Xi are less egregious, mostly because everyone already knows they were compiled, edited, and commentated on by Zhu Xi in the Song dynasty anyways.
 
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Buddhism spread into China much earlier than 4th century. In records the first one is 1st century at 67 AD, Emperor Ming of Han officially sent scholars to India and carried back a lot of texts with them for translating into Chinese. But possibly it's even earlier than this. (no direct history records but other sources indicated as far back to later 1st century BC, before Jesus even born).

And the spread of Buddhism is indeed more from the North. There are records said the grandson of the famous warlord Cao Cao from three kingdoms period - Cao Rui, (He is also Emperor Ming, but of the Wei Empire), built luxury Buddhist temples and was very religious. And the succession northern dynasties (founded by foreign invaders or not) all followed these trends.

And the southern dynasties after the great divide, although a bit later (no more later than 4th century), converted quite extensively. A famous story is that one of the southern dynasty ruler - Emperor Wu of Liang (梁武帝) resigned the emperor title many times to become a Buddhism monk, and his subjects had to paid enormous amount of money to convince him back to throne. (With great donations it supposedly gives him good karma, but others believe he only did this as a method of extortion from his subjects. Indirect tax so to speak). Religions in China are very practically, often misused, even a peaceful religion like Buddhism.
 
Buddhism spread into China much earlier than 4th century. In records the first one is 1st century at 67 AD, Emperor Ming of Han officially sent scholars to India and carried back a lot of texts with them for translating into Chinese. But possibly it's even earlier than this. (no direct history records but other sources indicated as far back to later 1st century BC, before Jesus even born).

And the spread of Buddhism is indeed more from the North. There are records said the grandson of the famous warlord Cao Cao from three kingdoms period - Cao Rui, (He is also Emperor Ming, but of the Wei Empire), built luxury Buddhist temples and was very religious. And the succession northern dynasties (founded by foreign invaders or not) all followed these trends.

And the southern dynasties after the great divide, although a bit later (no more later than 4th century), converted quite extensively. A famous story is that one of the southern dynasty ruler - Emperor Wu of Liang (梁武帝) resigned the emperor title many times to become a Buddhism monk, and his subjects had to paid enormous amount of money to convince him back to throne. (With great donations it supposedly gives him good karma, but others believe he only did this as a method of extortion from his subjects. Indirect tax so to speak). Religions in China are very practically, often misused, even a peaceful religion like Buddhism.
Oh indeed, I don't intend to say otherwise. However, Buddhism then was fairly minor and negligible, while as the Three Kingdoms era degraded into the Northern and Southern dynasties, we see an absolute explosion of Buddhism (and Daoism) in China, with the construction of increasingly numerous monasteries across China (esp. on hilltops and mountains), and Buddhism hitting its Golden Age during the reign of (and sponsorship by) the Tang.

The spread of Buddhism vis-a-vis a sponsorship of the state is very much tied to practical reasons (if you have a growing Buddhist sect proclaiming to the people that you are a model, Buddhist ruler and that you're rule is legitimate, you have just abit more legitimacy and claim to the Mandate of Heaven). And after all, the acquisition and the maintenance of political legitimacy is really the defining characteristic and goal of damn near every dynasty or would-be dynasty in Chinese history.
 
Oh indeed, I don't intend to say otherwise. However, Buddhism then was fairly minor and negligible, while as the Three Kingdoms era degraded into the Northern and Southern dynasties, we see an absolute explosion of Buddhism (and Daoism) in China, with the construction of increasingly numerous monasteries across China (esp. on hilltops and mountains), and Buddhism hitting its Golden Age during the reign of (and sponsorship by) the Tang.

This is a better way of saying what I was getting at.

So to tie it back to the OP -- could a more united China, that avoided being split (say by the Battle of Red Cliffs going the other way) have in turn avoided the flowering of Buddhism that OTL's 4th Century saw? Could this curbing -- delaying said flourishing by a couple of centuries or so -- make China more receptive to western faiths like Christianity and Islam in ages to come?
 
The Mandate of Heaven isn't a religion. It's a social and political concept and tradition that dates back to the ...

The Four Books of Zhu Xi are less egregious, mostly because everyone already knows they were compiled, edited, and commentated on by Zhu Xi in the Song dynasty anyways.

I agree with you, and this is the reason why I think POD has to be as early as 134 BC, even Qin Empire. There has to be a roadblock so to speak to prevent Buddhism from wide spreading. Make the mainstream upper class philosophical view more incompatible with Buddhism, and compatible with Monotheism. Still many elements has to be subsided or weaken. It did happens with some of the concepts from Confucianism, and created a lot of contradictions in the process of "editing". It's also why the second revival - Noe-Confucianism since the Song dynasty to Ming has to come up with some really crazy ideas to fill in the "philosophical black hole". And it really started to be more religious than philosophical (It borrowed so many Taoism and Buddhism elements). It became something that can never be wrong, and texts are what it's all about. It can be interpreted what ever the rulers wishes the scholars to interpret. But this also means if the revived and select of Confucianism in Han take a different route, it's very possible the ATL "Noe-Confuianism" may combined different religious elements.

One of the possible one is that instead of using the core of Confucianism at 134 BC, the option is a philosophy from Moism (墨家). They are famous for their craftsmanship embracing, believes in supernatural force to guide lives, need to live monk-like lifestyle, and the idea that more authorities needs more abilities (You can finish the sentence :)). The best way to describe it, is that it's philosophy is very much a like a Judi in Star War (I am not kidding, if you never knew it before, check it out. You will be so astonished by their similarity. But perhaps not so much surprised if you know it's the base of Chinese marshal arts spirits, and a lot like knighthood)
 
This is a better way of saying what I was getting at.

So to tie it back to the OP -- could a more united China, that avoided being split (say by the Battle of Red Cliffs going the other way) have in turn avoided the flowering of Buddhism that OTL's 4th Century saw? Could this curbing -- delaying said flourishing by a couple of centuries or so -- make China more receptive to western faiths like Christianity and Islam in ages to come?
It's possible. However, as I noted in my previous post, it's far more difficult, due to the monotheistic nature of these religions (as opposed to the more open interpretation of Buddhism, which allows for Polytheism), as well as the cultural, physical, and intellectual distance between the holy sites of Islam/Christianity and with China.

It's pretty unlikely, in all honesty, as Buddhism would still spread in China, just at a much decelerated pace (Daoism would grow in importance relatively, however, due to it fulfilling the vacuum of Buddhism).

Personally, the biggest impact of such swift unity would be the fact that the heart of China will remain in the north along the Yellow River (at least for a little while longer), instead of shifting to the south along the Yangtze. That has absolutely massive butterflies.

I agree with you, and this is the reason why I think POD has to be as early as 134 BC, even Qin Empire. There has to be a roadblock so to speak to prevent Buddhism from wide spreading. Make the mainstream upper class philosophical view more incompatible with Buddhism, and compatible with Monotheism. Still many elements has to be subsided or weaken. It did happens with some of the concepts from Confucianism, and created a lot of contradictions in the process of "editing". It's also why the second revival - Noe-Confucianism since the Song dynasty to Ming has to come up with some really crazy ideas to fill in the "philosophical black hole". And it really started to be more religious than philosophical (It borrowed so many Taoism and Buddhism elements). It became something that can never be wrong, and texts are what it's all about. It can be interpreted what ever the rulers wishes the scholars to interpret. But this also means if the revived and select of Confucianism in Han take a different route, it's very possible the ATL "Noe-Confuianism" may combined different religious elements.
It's possible, but remember changing the views of the upper class doesn't affect the fact that the religion (being foreign and barbaric by nature) will have to gain traction first amongst a popular following, and the polytheistic and religious outlook of Chinese during the time period are distinct and incompatible with Christianity to a good extent (unless you twisted Christianity to a very convoluted state).

One of the possible one is that instead of using the core of Confucianism at 134 BC, the option is a philosophy from Moism (墨家). They are famous for their craftsmanship embracing, believes in supernatural force to guide lives, need to live monk-like lifestyle, and the idea that more authorities needs more abilities (You can finish the sentence :)). The best way to describe it, is that it's philosophy is very much a like a Judi in Star War (I am not kidding, if you never knew it before, check it out. You will be so astonished by their similarity. But perhaps not so much surprised if you know it's the base of Chinese marshal arts spirits, and a lot like knighthood)
Oh god, Mohism. In all honesty, its difficult to see it taking hold given the philosophy itself has some very distinctly abhorrent tenets (for a ruler). Though I would agree, the whole analogy to a Jedi is very apt, but a philosophy built around universal love (i.e. love everyone equally), one that vigorously denounces relationships and graded compassion (i.e. family is more important than the village, etc.), and is pacifistic to its core (which made Mohists quite adept at seigecraft and fortification) just isn't appealing to rulers seeking to unite China, whereas Confucius, writing as he did during the very beginning of the Warring States period, has gained a very large following and influence within the shi (literally translated, knight. In the Warring States period, were typically dispossessed nobles whom sought employment as advisers, teachers, and philosophers). Plus, the emphasis on filial relationships and graded compassion, and the importance of certain relationships (i.e. liege and his vassals, liege and his people, father and son, etc.), make it much more useful and appealing to rulers. Then there's Yangism, but total selfishness (and effective hedonism) does not a political philosophy make. Then there's Legalism, but that died as a (de jure) philosophy with the Qin (though its influence can be seen pretty much universally in China).

It's possible, mind you. Very much so. Just difficult to imagine how.
 
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This is a better way of saying what I was getting at.

So to tie it back to the OP -- could a more united China, that avoided being split (say by the Battle of Red Cliffs going the other way) have in turn avoided the flowering of Buddhism that OTL's 4th Century saw? Could this curbing -- delaying said flourishing by a couple of centuries or so -- make China more receptive to western faiths like Christianity and Islam in ages to come?

Without Buddhism spread, the key resistance I think is still the revived Confucianism centuries earlier.

Also the split of china is not really directly connected to Cao Cao lost at Red Cliffs. Unification happened anyway decades later. The split of north and south happened after that in 4th century in OTL. I think China would still be divided and fractured in the end no matter what. (IMO, It's even possible that an earlier unification will cause a succession crisis to happen earlier, like the one in Jin Dynasty, only decades earlier with Wei dynasty version. Thus create a window of opportunity for foreign invasions).
 
It's possible. However, as I noted in my previous post, it's far more difficult, due to the monotheistic nature of these religions (as opposed to the more open interpretation of Buddhism, which allows for Polytheism), as well as the cultural, physical, and intellectual distance between the holy sites of Islam/Christianity and with China.

It's pretty unlikely, in all honesty, as Buddhism would still spread in China, just at a much decelerated pace (Daoism would grow in importance relatively, however, due to it fulfilling the vacuum of Buddhism).

Personally, the biggest impact of such swift unity would be the fact that the heart of China will remain in the north along the Yellow River (at least for a little while longer), instead of shifting to the south along the Yangtze. That has absolutely massive butterflies.
Without Buddhism spread, the key resistance I think is still the revived Confucianism centuries earlier.

Gotcha. In this case then, I thank you very much for your answer. :) The option thus examined, I withdraw from this thread.
 
...
Oh god, Mohism. In all honesty, its difficult to see it taking hold given the philosophy itself has some very distinctly abhorrent tenets (for a ruler). Though I would agree, the whole analogy to a Jedi is very apt, but a philosophy built around universal love (i.e. love everyone equally), one that vigorously denounces relationships and graded compassion (i.e. family is more important than the village, etc.), and is pacifistic to its core (which made Mohists quite adept at seigecraft and fortification) just isn't appealing to rulers seeking to unite China, whereas Confucius, writing as he did during the very beginning of the Warring States period, has gained a very large following and influence within the shi (literally translated, knight. In the Warring States period, were typically dispossessed nobles whom sought employment as advisers, teachers, and philosophers). Plus, the emphasis on filial relationships and graded compassion, and the importance of certain relationships (i.e. liege and his vassals, liege and his people, father and son, etc.), make it much more useful and appealing to rulers. Then there's Yangism, but total selfishness (and effective hedonism) does not a political philosophy make. Then there's Legalism, but that died as a (de jure) philosophy with the Qin (though its influence can be seen pretty much universally in China).

It's possible, mind you. Very much so. Just difficult to imagine how.

I did post an earlier POD when Qin Dynasty survived instead of replacing by Han. It's my first choice to use Legalism as it's not only practical in politics, but also more compatible. Or in 134 BC a variation of Xun Zi sects is the core of revived Confucianism (He was considered a Confucianism at that time, but since almost all his students are great Legalism supporters or even government officials, his name bares more Legalism).

Moism is more like throwing idea in my part, since in fact Dong Zhongshu's interactions between heaven and mankind is somewhat linked with the idea from Moism - "will of heaven" (天志論). You can say some Moism elements does embedded in revived Confucianism at Han. This one is not Confucius' Confucianism from warring states (core concepts mostly).

And I did mentioned in my long post that some of the original mainstream Confucius idea is not welcome by rulers too (Warring States Confucianism also has a back door for powerful shi to grab power and provides them a moral high ground). Hence it's also possible to edit out some Moism elements and reversely add elements from Confucianism so it's still favorable for rulers. (I can't think of a consistent combinations yet in such a short time. Have to think about it :rolleyes:)
 
Don't forget that Christianity spread to cultues as varied as the Norse and Ethiopians while retaining core values and beliefs. Why couldn't it do won in china as well, especially if an emperor converts and uses his influence. If Confucianism remains only a philosophy and doesn't take on religious matters, the two could coexist.
 
If Christianity got to China early enough there are a few things that could change to make it easier for the Chinese to accept.
-The Emperor is basically the Pope. He's chosen by God to represent God's will to the Chinese people. When he stops doing this, a new Dynasty is formed.
-Ancestor worship is allowed, but people pray to Jesus first, saints second, and they pass the support onto the ancestors.
-Confucius becomes an important saint who helped prepare China for Christianity.
-The old hero's become saints. The old gods become angels.
-The holidays are Christianized. New Years becomes the day Jesus was born, Tomb Sweeping Day becomes something like the Mexican Day of the Dead, Mid-Autumn Festival becomes a day for celebrating a saint, same with Dragon Boat Day. Easter is thrown in there somewhere.

The regular Christians would probably be shocked at this type of Christianity, and consider it horribly pagan, but if it came to China pretty early on, it would have enough time to become entrenched, and the European Christian's won't be able to change it.

Of course, it also depends on the interpretation. If it's plain-vanilla Eastern Orthodox Christianity, then it could be possible to have, say, a Patriarchate of Chang'an, with Greek and/or Church Slavonic playing a rôle similar to Sanskrit and Pali in China - alongside Classical Chinese, of course (and it has to be remembered that there are Sanskrit loanwords in Chinese, though they've been so thoroughly integrated that they are now essentially Chinese words). If it's a Syriac Christianity (either Syriac Orthodox, Nestorian, and/or even an analogue to the St. Thomas Christians or even the Mandaeans ;)), something similar but adapted to Syriac Christianity, with the Syriac language substituting for Greek and/or Church Slavonic (and the Syriac alphabet adapted for writing Chinese, so that linguists and scholars could better figure out how exactly early forms of Chinese were actually spoken). And so on and so forth.
 
I know what it is.

The fact that you haven't addressed my earlier points indicates that you don't, as a matter of fact, understand the implications of the Butterfly Effect. It's the idea that, to give one example, a change in one place can have huge effects on other places. For one example, the survival of the Qin might somehow prevent Christianity from forming. Not that it necessarily does, but it probably will.
 
Butterflies don't necessary have to be completely ground changing for the rest of the world when there is a lack a travel. Considering those that are effected are only those who really travel the silk road You could effectively but up a "butter fly net" and assume that those far enough away aren't really effected
 
It would be kind of cool to have some part of China become a Democratic Hui Republic, in an alternate world, or in our own future. But there aren't enough Hui to form such an independent state. Maybe it could have been, if Islam had been much more successful in winning converts there.
 
The fact that you haven't addressed my earlier points indicates that you don't, as a matter of fact, understand the implications of the Butterfly Effect. It's the idea that, to give one example, a change in one place can have huge effects on other places. For one example, the survival of the Qin might somehow prevent Christianity from forming. Not that it necessarily does, but it probably will.

I don't want to be off topic here, and do not wish to fight for definition problems. I admitted due to English is not my first language I might misunderstood something, but I do know Chinese history and can read and access the first hand documents, and the changes they might cause. So just want to point out, Han Wu Di's decision at 134 BC to choose which policy to adapt, may have very big impact (To the entire Euro-Asia), if the philosophy chosen was very different than OTL.

Han Wu Di was one of the most successful emperor in Han dynasty, changed and drove out many central Asia nomads and nations, conquered lots of them into Han empire. He sent diplomats far west, and essentially make the silk-road travel possible, build cities /fortress along. Opened the way to India,

So if Han Wu Di chose a policy like his grandmother, and keeps Han dynasty peaceful and feudal using pure diplomatic ways (like arranged marriages, which previous emperors did before him) of interacting with north and west neighbors. It's very likely an early Mongol-like central asia nomad empire would arise at 2 century BC. Can you imagine what would happen when a mongol-like invasion happen during the Crisis of the Rome Republic?

P.S this is one of the reason why I did not choose a fairly tolerant Taoism as Han Wu Di's choice, even it's politically plausible and probably make the Confucianism incompatibility issue less problematic. But a weak Han Empire during that time will make ATL impossible to calculate.
 
Okay, it's not about Han Wudi. It's not about China. It's not about first-hand documents.

Forget about this entire debate about Confucianism and Legalism for a second.

The butterfly effect has several meanings, and how a minor change can have totally unexpected changes across the world. It's a slightly complicated idea, and I wish there was somebody who could explain it better. There's a story in English, Ray Bradbury's A Sound of Thunder, where a man goes back in time, and he kills a butterfly accidentally while there. When he goes back into the present time, he has changed the results of an election.

Imagine you take freeze April 15th in place. And you create two hypothetical worlds. In one of them, World A, a butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing. In the other one, World B, that butterfly in Beijing doesn't flap its wings.

Next, you let time proceed as normal in both World A and World B. In World A, the butterfly flapped its wings, causing a change in wind patterns that ultimately results in a hurricane across the Caribbean the next month. In World B, the butterfly doesn't flap its wings, so there is no hurricane in the next May. (For all of you who know what I'm talking about, I know the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't start for a while.)

The hurricane would be the effect of the butterfly. In a way, you can call it the butterfly effect.

Now, back to Confucianism and Legalism. Just to use your example, imagine Han Wudi adopts different policies. This minor change (comparatively minor) leads to Han Wudi not attacking the northern nomads, and the nomads get aggressive, and results in them attacking China and Rome. And then let's say they defeat Rome, which never conquers Judea. Judea then stays under the Hasmonean Dynasty. As such, Pontius Pilate and the Roman soldiers are never around to kill Jesus (who probably wouldn't be born in this world) or any other Messiah claimants. Without Jesus or any other Messiahs, there wouldn't be any Christianity.

Now, I'm not saying this is how events in history would have played out, since I don't find this likely, but this is what I'm saying when I talk about how a change in Chinese government philosophy may lead to religions like Christianity or Islam being removed from history. And this is what you're not addressing.
 
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