Singapore Strategy

Bear with me on this one.

I'm working, slowly, on a timeline that includes no European war in the 1940s (though thanks to the pod and the reason for the lack of a war, rearmament is pretty equivalent to OTL) but a far eastern one that starts with the Japanese coveting British possessions and trade.

The Admiralty has dispatched in the recent past a nucleas of an eastern fleet based around a 'fast striking force' and with the tension between Japan annd Britain reaching fever pitch a fleet focussed around several fleet carriers and battleships has now been dispatched east. Main fleet to Singapore.

War is days away, weeks at the outside, and the eastern fleet is transitting suez. Stops are Kamran, Trincomalee before Singapore is relieved. Well that's the plan anyway. And just the start of it.

Japan wants to engage the enemy more closely and provoke a decisive battle soonest. A dashing admiral decides that the Nihion Kaigun are going to catch Andrew off guard and hit the Eastern fleet hard and fast in the Indian Ocean in a fleet action, while the survivors are going to be penned into Trincomalee by cutting of the oil supply lines from Burma and Persia.

How does that sound strategically and tactically? What happens next?

(One scenario I'm thinking about involved the Eastern fleet feinting to Attu atoll while actually heading east to cut off the Japanese return and allowing an engagement in the vicinity of Ceylon potentially under land based air cover too.)
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
This is at the start of the war before Singapore is taken? Strategically this is pretty much impossible. The Nihion Kaigun has to pass through one of the narrow straights of the Indonesian archipel. It will be spotted of not attacked by the European powers. Taking Singapore in a coup de main is also pretty unlikely without staging areas in French Indochina. The only way this is remotely possible is if the Japanese station their strike fleet on the west Coast of Thailand but then then Europeans will know it's nearby and act accordingly.
 
This is at the start of the war before Singapore is taken? Strategically this is pretty much impossible. The Nihion Kaigun has to pass through one of the narrow straights of the Indonesian archipel. It will be spotted of not attacked by the European powers. Taking Singapore in a coup de main is also pretty unlikely without staging areas in French Indochina. The only way this is remotely possible is if the Japanese station their strike fleet on the west Coast of Thailand but then then Europeans will know it's nearby and act accordingly.

The timeline on these points is fluid - particularly because of the time it could take for the eastern fleet to muster, store, and then be dispatched, even without the political debate that would ensue.

What are the strategic preconditions that allow something like this to happen?
 
Power imbalances rarely leads to war. Way to Singapore means war with France, US and UK which have idle navies rather busy ones accdg to your scenario.

Maybe if you can somehow find a pod wherein the US, with letting war plan red triggered, will side with Japan vs UK and the French.

But if you base it on a pod 1940, there is no reason to covet the territories down south.

the US will still be supplying the Japanese the oil and resources they need until the Japanese suicidally goes down to Indochina with the unbusy French.
 
(One scenario I'm thinking about involved the Eastern fleet feinting to Attu atoll while actually heading east to cut off the Japanese return and allowing an engagement in the vicinity of Ceylon potentially under land based air cover too.)

The Eastern Fleet cannot feint to Addu because it is a secret base, and if the Japanese detect the feint, which is the purpose of feinting, then this discloses the base. The power and value of land-based air cover from Ceylon was tested once and found wanting.
 
ceylon

It was found wanting when Ceylon was a secondary base in a third tier theater.

If main fleet east is occurring with no war in Europe nor north Africa, we can project a much higher level of modern aircraft and readiness in the far east in this timeline. Furthermore Ceylon is a support base rather than a frontier strike base.

My big question is how does the KB get into the Indian ocean? From Formosa or hanain the French and British watch them to Malacca. Through the was Indies, the Americans, Dutch a d British watch them. Now go around New guinea the Australians watch them. Any of those route at logistical nightmares. How Does a surprise raid occur?
 
My big question is how does the KB get into the Indian ocean? From Formosa or hanain the French and British watch them to Malacca. Through the was Indies, the Americans, Dutch a d British watch them. Now go around New guinea the Australians watch them. Any of those route at logistical nightmares. How Does a surprise raid occur?

Not to mention that without a war the RN/GB will still have a collection of stuff at Singapore some of it like aircraft maybe obsolescent (less than OTL due to lack of war need) some ineffective v KB (destroyers/CLs) but some like the far east submarines might be very effective in the small gaps of the DEI the KB must sail through ?
 
Chokepoints and breakout

Bear with me on this one.

I'm working, slowly, on a timeline that includes no European war in the 1940s (though thanks to the pod and the reason for the lack of a war, rearmament is pretty equivalent to OTL) but a far eastern one that starts with the Japanese coveting British possessions and trade.
War is days away, weeks at the outside, and the eastern fleet is transitting suez. Stops are Kamran, Trincomalee before Singapore is relieved. Well that's the plan anyway. And just the start of it.

Japan wants to engage the enemy more closely and provoke a decisive battle soonest. A dashing admiral decides that the Nihion Kaigun are going to catch Andrew off guard and hit the Eastern fleet hard and fast in the Indian Ocean in a fleet action, while the survivors are going to be penned into Trincomalee by cutting of the oil supply lines from Burma and Persia.

My question is how does the Japanese fleet break out into the Indian Ocean. In this scenario, the French still control Indochina, the Americans are in the Philippines, the Dutch control the East Indies, and the British have Malaya.

The nearest deep water port for the Japanese fleet to the Indian Ocean is either on Hainan or Formosa. From either location, any major battle fleet that Japan wants to send to the Indian Ocean has to pass through at least one major, well watched choke point. Even if war has not yet been declared, the British will either have a couple of cruisers trailing half a dozen carriers, or several flying boats doing the same once the fleet enters air range. The carriers have to go through Malacca, Sunda, Balik, Lombak Straits. They can't sneak into the Indian Ocean.

The Pearl Harbor attack force was able to approach undetected because they were in waters that had no merchant traffic, and the closest land bases were thousands of miles away. That does not work in this scenario.

I could see submarines making a break-out attempt, but again range is a limiting factor. I could see long range surface raiders getting into the Indian Ocean before war starts, but I can not see how a major battlegroup gets into the Indian Ocean unobserved.
 
Aside from the question of how the Japanese get in to the Indian Ocean without being spotted and trailed at a minimum, and this is impossible if they do it before they secure or neutralize Singapore, the PI, and DEI, they don't have the fleet train to support such a move. What is proposed is much larger than the OTL incursions in to the Indian Ocean - tankers at a minimum and also some sort of supply ships. When the fleet leaves the Indian Ocean to return to Japan or Japanese bases created BEFORE the war, the will run the gauntlet and for sure be attacked by land based air and some local naval forces. They will need plenty of fuel to steam under combat conditions (not just fuel efficient speeds) and reload ammo as the battle(s) in the Indian Ocean will have emptied magazines.

The Japanese don't have to physically hold Singapore, the PI, and the DEI to do this but they must be neutralized which is exactly what happened OTL. Sending a significant surface force in to the Indian Ocean without doing this is basically committing suicide - no matter how well they do in the Indian Ocean by surprise they are then cut off and literally run out of fuel. Japan is 1940 can't send the bulk of its fleet in to the Indian Ocean and while it is there, then attack these rear areas. Just not enough force structure to do it is that order...
 
Taking on the Combined British, US, Dutch and French with little or no ditractions forom Italy, Germany and I assume Vichy France (it not existing in this Scenario?) 'is' suicide.

IIRC Japan managed to get about 4 Divisions to Malaya and initially 2 into Burma

The British Empire had about 8 mostly 2nd line Divisions in the region, about 150 Aircraft and virtually no tanks - but this was at the same time that it was also engaged in North Africa, The Med, Middle East, East Africa as well as being obliged to hold back significant units for the Defence of Britain

Take all that away and you free up some serious 1st Tier combat power that can be diverted to the region - For example I dont think the Japanese Tanks would be much good vs British Matilda II tanks

Fleet assets would also be largely freed up to deploy to the Far East
 
Top