Singapore Slim v2.0

Major Arthur Ernest Percival entered the restaurant. The warmth of it's inside granted him a respite from the cold rain that fell outside. A waitress approached Percival and showed him to his table. Because Percival was a regular patron of the restaurant, the owner ensured that there was a table reserved for him.

"No need for the menu" said Percival to the waitress as he settled down. "I'll be having the usual."

The waitress acknowledged Percival's order with a nod and went off to pass on his order to the cook. The 'usual' that Percival ordered was a dish of beef and potato. He never seemed to get tired of eating the same old thing day after day after day.

While Percival waited for his dinner to arrive. He made a mental note to himself to personally interrogate the two IRA terrorists his boys picked up earlier today. From what he knew so far, there was going to be another raid or bombing by the IRA. The problem was, he didn't know if it was the former or the latter. He also didn't know where and when it would take place. The least he could do was to heighten the unit's vigilance for the week ahead.

Percival's thoughts were interrupted by the shattering of glass, followed by a thud on the ground which came before an explosion. He was tipped backwards as the force of the blast and small pieces of shrapnel slammed into his body. As he lay on the ground, Percival heard screams and gunfire. Vision was blurred. The pain from the shrapnel wounds in Percival's chest crept up to him. The gunfire stopped as sudden as it started. Seconds later, three men surrounded the grieviously wounded commander of Bandon's security force.

"Is he the one we're looking for?" queried one of them to the other in thick Irish brogue.

"Yes, he's the one" said another one of the men.

"Good, let's finish him off and collect that £1000 bounty." said the man with the thick Irish brogue.

He took out a revolver, pointed it at Percival's temple and fired. Percival didn't feel anything. The last thing he heard was the sound of a slamming door. After that, darkness engulfed him.
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As you can tell from the title and the above narrative, I intend to create an alternate Battle for Malaya by eliminating Percival and replacing him with Slim.

Please let me know what you think about this. I am open to all comments.
 
Interesting PoD.

Perhaps the Brits are even worse off because it was Percival afterall that wrote up a paper suggesting that the Japanese would "burgle Malaya by the backdoor" in 1938. Without that, the strategic thought might not even enter British minds and remain firmly that Singapore was still an isolated fortress.
 
Did the IRA DO bombings like that in the 30's? Where is Percival stationed? Was he in charge of Black and Tans, or something?

?? I don't understand the setting, I don't think. Could you add ... a footnote, say.
 

Markus

Banned
Did the IRA DO bombings like that in the 30's? Where is Percival stationed? Was he in charge of Black and Tans, or something?

?? I don't understand the setting, I don't think. Could you add ... a footnote, say.


He was stationed in Ireland during their war of independance, so this could have happened to him. The problem with him and Malaya was not so much him but his very late arrival. He did intensify training and began construction of defensive lines but six months were too little time to undo years of neglect.
 
He was stationed in Ireland during their war of independance, so this could have happened to him. The problem with him and Malaya was not so much him but his very late arrival. He did intensify training and began construction of defensive lines but six months were too little time to undo years of neglect.
Ah. Yes, OK that makes sense, now. Thanks
 

Markus

Banned
Good bye 25th Army! :D

Easier said than done:

The Army units are understrenght, ill-trained, ill-equipped and widely dispersed. The latter was largely the result of the Air Ministry building airfields without coordinating with the Army. For example, bases like Kota Baru were hard to defend and the entire area around Kuantan could have been left undefended if there had been no airfield. But there was one and it tied down two Australian battalions. To make matters worse the Air Ministry send only 1/3rd of the required planes, resulting in Japanese air superiority, resulting in the Army being unable to concentrate the dispersed units, resulting in the 11th Indian Division having to fight alone and get cut into pieces.

A timely cancellation of Operation Matador would have helped a lot. The 11th needed a 24 hour head start to reach Singora and Patani soon enough to prepare defensive positions. But Matador was not cancelled until Dec. 8th, 13:30 - 10 hours after the Japanese landed. As a result the Indian units were deployed for an offensive and literally not in a position to meet an attack.

The Allies got a second chance once the Japanese reached southern Malaya. By that time the first reinforcements had arrived in Singapore, allowing the original garrison (well trained in beach defence) to relieve the 8th Australian Division. The 8th and the 11th could have then concentrated against the Japanese with the very weak 11th held in reserve. But the 8th was send into battle partly and piecemeal, just 2/3rd of it fought and in three widely separated places. The underutilisation of the Aussies was IMO the biggest mistake. Bennet´s men were good and he had the right idea how to deal with the IJA: by setting traps. It was tried twice and worked both times. The second time an Australian battalion mauled the Japanese so badly they had to withdraw an entire regiment from the line. Just temporarily but its not like the Japanese had an abundance of ground troops.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Interesting start. You need to settle on a date for your POD and work from there.

Looking forward to more.
 
As requested, I have set the PoD to be in 1921, sometime between January and March when Percival was the intelligence officer in the Essex Regiment and when the first assasination attempt was supposed to have been plotted. I am also banking on the butterfly effect to get Slim involved in Singapore.

The narrative I prepared earlier was a gauge to see if this scenario was plausible and if I should continue with it.
 
I'm sorry Markus but those sound like excuses to me. The Japanese only had 300 or so planes, since when does it take 560 or whatever to hold their own against 300? Similarly Percival had months to troops trained, up to 7 months, but even 4 months is not a negligable amount of time to train troops in an environment of looming war. These troops were training to fight on the defensive, a stronger form of warfare.

I know there were structural problems with the defence of Malaya, but beyond these are issues of human incompetence which are ripe for AH scenarios. Especially when despite the British problems the Japanese were on the verge of withdrawal.
 

Redbeard

Banned
...

A timely cancellation of Operation Matador would have helped a lot. The 11th needed a 24 hour head start to reach Singora and Patani soon enough to prepare defensive positions. But Matador was not cancelled until Dec. 8th, 13:30 - 10 hours after the Japanese landed. As a result the Indian units were deployed for an offensive and literally not in a position to meet an attack.
.

Or a timely activation of Matador.

Percival's superior, Brooke-Popham (Commander Far East IIRC) in early December had recieved authority to initiate Matador (i.e. invading Thai teritory on the Kra) on signs of Japanese aggression. He did recieve intelligence of Japanese convoys etc. but was so scared by Churchill's instructions previously about not provocing Japan into war, that he decided to do nothing until the Japanese had landed. This part of the TL leaves Churchill the most important factor(barrier), but perhaps Slim (or someone elese with balls) werer better utilised in replacing Brooke-Popham than Percival?

Had Matador been activated when the chance was there even the green units would have been in good defensive positions difficult to bypass. The IJA seriously risk a defeat but even a few days delay on arrival in front of Singapore might be fatal for the whole campaign.

The Allies got a second chance once the Japanese reached southern Malaya. By that time the first reinforcements had arrived in Singapore, allowing the original garrison (well trained in beach defence) to relieve the 8th Australian Division. The 8th and the 11th could have then concentrated against the Japanese with the very weak 11th held in reserve. But the 8th was send into battle partly and piecemeal, just 2/3rd of it fought and in three widely separated places. The underutilisation of the Aussies was IMO the biggest mistake. Bennet´s men were good and he had the right idea how to deal with the IJA: by setting traps. It was tried twice and worked both times. The second time an Australian battalion mauled the Japanese so badly they had to withdraw an entire regiment from the line. Just temporarily but its not like the Japanese had an abundance of ground troops.

In this phase it certainly would have helped to have a less depressed CO than Percival. It will still be very difficult to defend Singapore, not at least keeping the population from starving and thirsting, but apart from that time is on the British side. The IJA was on the end of its logistic string and in the next weeks and months additional reinforcements will be available. First, the regular 18th Division, which arrived OTL two weeks before the capitualion will have a chance of being deployed with effect. Next we know that the British in OTL by 5th of May 42 could land several Brigades on Madagascar (Ironclad). That operation was initiated because of the fall of Singapore, and if Singapore still stands these forces can be deployed elsewhere. If just shipped to Singapore I guess additional reinforcement could arrive in March. Landing operations on the West Coast of Malaya (behind the IJA front) probably couldn't be much earlier than OTL Ironclad, but as the IJA had very few if any reinforcments to spare the outcome might end up very differently.

Personally I'm quite sure, that if Malaya/Singapore had drawn out, it would very soon have turned into Churchill's pet campaign putting even the Med. on a temporary standby in the battle for resources. In an attritional battle the Japanese have no chance against a 1941 GB by itself outproducing Germany, Italy and Japan combined.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Markus

Banned
I'm sorry Markus but those sound like excuses to me. The Japanese only had 300 or so planes, since when does it take 560 or whatever to hold their own against 300? Similarly Percival had months to troops trained, up to 7 months, but even 4 months is not a negligable amount of time to train troops in an environment of looming war. These troops were training to fight on the defensive, a stronger form of warfare.

The Japanese had app. 300 twin engine bombers, 80 single engine ones, 90 first rate and 130 second rate fighters. And they could send a fleet. The British knew they could not and thus intended to use air power instead. Considering that Malaya was to get obsolescent planes the estimate seems sound to me, especially if it includes spare planes which the RAF lacked too.

The training of the ground troops was complicated by factors outside Percival´s control. His units were constantly "mikled". Experienced officers and NCO were send to India as cadre or the Med, while only rookies were send to Malaya. The second problem was the shortage of labour to build fixed defences. Labour was under the control of civilian authorities who gave the construction of defensive positions a priority so low that the work had to be done by the troops. That too reduced training time.
 
This is an excerpt from Singapore Slim: An Unofficial War Biography Of William J. Slim.

His performance at Staff College resulted in his appointment first to Army Headquarters India in Delhi and then to Staff College, Camberley in England (as a General Staff Officer, Second Grade), where he taught from 1934 to 1936.

Slim's teaching stint in the Staff College was abruptly interrupted by his appointment to Singapore as General Staff Officer, First Grade in 1936. He served as General Dobbie's Chief of Staff.*It was through a report that Slim wrote for Dobbie, then head of Malaya Command, that the former realized that Singapore was not the 'impregnable fortress' that it was reputed to be.*

The report, titled "Recommendations for the improvement of Singapore's defences", stated that for all of Singapore's seaward defences, she could be attacked over land through the Malayan peninsula. Conventional wisdom at that time stated that Malaya's dense jungles would prevent an invasion over land. To disprove that statement and to prove his point, Slim organized an excercise involving the jungle warfare trained troops of the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders and garrison troops. Through the excercise, he proved that Singapore was vulnerable to a land attack and that British troops needed to have jungle warfare capabilities to be able to counter such an invasion.

Slim also noted that the state of many of the troops in Singapore was a problem. Because of her status as a 'important but backwater colony', Singapore received a combination of low quality troops and aircraft to garrison the port. His recommendation that training regimes be implemented for the Army and RAF units stationed in Malaya fell on deaf ears; no one felt the need to train an army in a period of peace. Despite this,*Slim was promoted to Colonel in recognition of his contributions to the building up of Singapore's defence plans.

On 8 June 1939, he was promoted to the tempoary rank of brigadier and appointed head of the Senior Officers' School at Belgaum, India. Within months from this date, the Second World War broke out. Slim would take away valuable lessons from the deserts of Africa that would help in the defence of Singapore.*

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Please comment and/or critique...
 

Markus

Banned
I like it, but i´d like to make a few points.

Singapore was not a backwater(yet). It was the cornerstone of the defence of SEA and the pre-war planes and garrison were as good as anywhere else. Ok, the RAF had more modern bombers in the UK in the late 30s but not that much more modern and the air threat to Singapore was close to zero in 1939. The same can not be said about the UK.
The ground troops garrisoning Singapore were fully trained in beach defence even in late 41.
And last but not least a suggestion about the location of landward defences. The more to the north, the better. From the early 1930 the dispatch of a powerful fleet become less likely and the importance of airpower thus grew. Now, from the beaches of Johore all but one airbase are within artillery range, so shore defences on the north coast of the island would be a desperate last resort. The not completed Kota Tinggi line on the mainland would have been better as a last line of defence.

The first would be the Thai border as this was considered the most likely invasion route from the late 30´s onwards. After the outbreak of WW2 the RAF assumed the main responsibility for the defence of Malaya because now the danger of landings at several locations along the eastern coast was seen. Actually it was not that bad but the powers that be understood it was necessary to defend all of Malaya to ensure the safety of Singapore Island. Thus one of Percival´s first action was to build defence lines in Jitra and Gurun to secure the many airfields in the north. Alor Star was one of the most important, if not the most important.

jitra line.jpg
 
Okay... Thanks for the critique Markus. I have bit a few queries:

1) Let's assume that the PoD I designated somehow butterflies away the storm that damaged the HMS Indomitable. What effect will it's deployment have on the Malayan campaign other than the fact that Force Z now has decent air cover?

2) Are defences in Southern Johore plausible too? Like you mentioned earlier, the defences in northen Malaya were meant to prevent the Japs from taking the airfields around the area. I was thinking that a few more airfields could be built in the Johpre area and that a scorched earth policy could be used to render the northen airfields completely useless to the Japs in the event of a breakthrough i.e. cratering runways, wrecking construction vehicles if any, siphoning fuel and ammunition and the like.

3) I also need a rundown on how badly the civil authorities obstructed defence preparations. I feel that it is possible for Slim to be able to negate the ill effects the military suffered due to the incompetence of the government.
 
The story of 453/21 squadron bears mentioning as an example of the lack of respect and cooperation between British and Aussie forces. As well, airman were busy building airfields instead of trying to fix Buffaloes due to a lack of civilian help. Lack of early warning because radars were improperly deployed and the lack of a ground observer network with communications, so vital to the BoB, was completely neglected. The lack of knowledge of the enemy, and a gross underestimation based on the unknown, doomed the response to being inadequate. Perhaps a seminar given by Claire Chennault would help. Perhaps more P-40's instead of Hurricanes and Buffaloes. It would be helpful also, if Gen. Slim had some extortional dirt on Churchill so he wouldn't have to communicate daily, and waste valuable time responding to incessant nattering as did poor Gen. Wavell in Egypt.
 
Personally I'm quite sure, that if Malaya/Singapore had drawn out, it would very soon have turned into Churchill's pet campaign putting even the Med. on a temporary standby in the battle for resources.

He'd probably get a few good speeches out of it in the House

"Even now the unthinking hordes of the Mikado rage against the defences of Singapore. But it shall stand. The free peoples of our Empire, of all creeds and colours defend this Eastern Gibraltar with every sinew of their being. The doughty Australians, our storied Indian Army, the gallant Malay and Chinese volunteers and regiments of stalwart Britons have so far thrown back every savage attack the craven General Yamashita has hurled at them. In all the annals of the vast continent of Asia a battle as great or of such import as this has never been told. On the shoulders of these men rests the freedom of India, of the Dutch East Indies, of Australia and far New Zealand. Fortress Singapore stands between these vast lands and a tyranny as hateful and bloody as any in all history- and it will stand unbowed."
 
I just read the new Churchill speech in the style of Churchill but I found I was starting to sound like William Shattner. Great speech.
 
He'd probably get a few good speeches out of it in the House

"Even now the unthinking hordes of the Mikado rage against the defences of Singapore. But it shall stand. The free peoples of our Empire, of all creeds and colours defend this Eastern Gibraltar with every sinew of their being. The doughty Australians, our storied Indian Army, the gallant Malay and Chinese volunteers and regiments of stalwart Britons have so far thrown back every savage attack the craven General Yamashita has hurled at them. In all the annals of the vast continent of Asia a battle as great or of such import as this has never been told. On the shoulders of these men rests the freedom of India, of the Dutch East Indies, of Australia and far New Zealand. Fortress Singapore stands between these vast lands and a tyranny as hateful and bloody as any in all history- and it will stand unbowed."

omg... That speech was so boomz... Slim would have done something like that in front of the troops. How do you suppose that he would get to speak in the House? Pre-war I guess?

Ps: I am NOT Ris Low...
 
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