Silesia and Galicia turn into mini-monarchies post-WWI. What happens to Poland ?

[Petike]

Imagine an ATL where the ending stages of WWI and the Versailles Conference went somewhat differently... After long diplomatic quarrels, the results are these : Two of the southern Polish regions inherited from Austria-Hungary - Polish Silesia (Slónsk) and Galicia-Lesser Poland - are grudgingly granted independence as two constitutional monarchies. Their heads are royal families coming from Austrian Habsburg, Polish and German stock. The Polish Republic is, at first, frustrated and wants to do a land grab in order to recclaim these two lost territories. Unfortunately, due to having to stop the Soviets in the east and under pressure from the League of Nations, they eventually agree to leave the two countries alone. Throughout the interwar period, these two new countries mostly retain good relations with their neighbours, including the reborn Rzecspospolita to the north of them. Over time, said relations stabilize and improve.

My question does not directly concern these mini-monarchies. Instead, I want to ask :

What happens to the interwar Republic of Poland from this ATL if it looses those two southern regions ?

How will it affect its politics, economy, culture and society ?

If the "three Polands" eventually reunite after an ATL WWII in the 1940s, do you think there will be much fallout from their previous separation during the interwar years ?


Note that most of the economically/industrially important southern regions of the OTL Polish Republic remain within its territory. Very few end up in the two small "south Polish" states, making ATL interwar Poland still a major industrial powerhouse of central Europe, while the two smaller countries are seen as semi-unindustrialized, "sleepy" podunks. As an example, the Katowice agglomeration remains within the Republic's territory and has not been given to either the Silesian monarchy or the monarchy of Lesser Poland and Galicia.

 

[Snaut]

A very, very weird situation. Western Galicia and the Teschen area (I assume that is what you mean by Polish Silesia) had overwhelming Polish majorities. I can't think of a reason why those people would not desire to be reunited with Poland. In OTL West Galicia de facto attatched itself to Poland in 1918, for instance. Or a reason why the Entente would wish to keep the three states separate. Or how, for that matter. If Poland gets other bits of Silesia it means it's doing rather well for itself, which makes the entire situation even more perplexing.

The consequences would largely depend on the circumstances of separation, but some things will be the same whatever happens. Poland's society will be universally pissed off at the new arrangement. The relations between Poland and the two creations on its southern border would resemble those between Germany and Danzig - Poland will seek to absorb the two states at the first opportunity. Unless a very nasty regime appears in Poland, the inhabitants of most of Galicia and Teschen will be equally keen on this. Poland might well find an ally in Germany, provided the latter is smart enough to abandon claims to the corridor, since both of them will regard the post-Versailles status quo as a sick joke. It may (or may not - it depends) accept the loss of the part of Galicia east of Lvov as the price for reunification - but not Lvov itself. Sympathy towards anybody in the Entente who had a hand in creating this situation would be greatly reduced, quite possibly to zero. Assuming Poland's other borders are as OTL, it would not be dramatically weakened with respect to OTL - it retains most of the population, the Upper Silesian industrial areas, the well developed Poznań and Pomerelia and the core of Poland, and access to the sea.

 

[Petike]

The two countries will eventually reunite with "Big" Poland after WWII and become its federal constituent lands. Hilariously enough, it will be the Teschen-Silesia country that will come under the claws of a pretty nasty regime (spearheaded by agents of a similar regime in Germany), during the mid 1930s. Lesser Poland and Poland proper will have a more amicable and stable relationship with each other and some of their politicians will be secretly negotiating the unification of the country already during the 1930s. The only reason they don't unite prior to the alt-WWII is to show some good will towards the neurotics in the League of Nations. After WWII, there will be little remaining reasons for the three countries staying apart and they will be allowed to fully unify.

I was just interested in how this slightly balkanized setup will influence interwar history. BTW, Danzig has a similar status ITTL as in OTL.

 

[Snaut]

East Galicia and (if they exist) Czech-speaking parts of the Teschen region are likely to receive autonomy due to having non-Polish populations. But I think the rest will be incorporated directly without any federal arrangement - any form of separation will bring very bad memories, and people will want it gone.

 

[Petike]

East Galicia and (if they exist) Czech-speaking parts of the Teschen region are likely to receive autonomy due to having non-Polish populations. But I think the rest will be incorporated directly without any federal arrangement - any form of separation will bring very bad memories, and people will want it gone.

Well, it would take long to explain, but... Some of the earlier mini-PODs in the timeline are to blame as well, not just the alternate WWI outcome. There are some really weird elements and odd twists ITTL's late 19th century politics, especially in central Europe. Pretty bonkers developments - at face value, in any case... FABR levels of bonkers.

Hence the "federal" autonomy and incosistent title of "Polish Confederation" after WWII - but, in everyday reality, it is less of a confederation or federation and more like Serbia during the 1970s-early 1990s. I.e., two large autonomous regions in an otherwise unitary country. The whole "confederation" shtick is just a clever diplomatic/political trick of the post-war Polish government. They did the same with Kaszub territories and Danzig.

 

[Snaut]

If the rest of the timeline is even half as "bonkers" as FaBR, I can't wait to see it.

Poland and Poland proper will have a more amicable and stable relationship with each other and some of their politicians will be secretly negotiating the unification of the country already during the 1930s. The only reason they don't unite prior to the alt-WWII is to show some good will towards the neurotics in the League of Nations.

I think you underestimate the drive for unification which would exist on both sides of the Vistula. It makes me wonder just what those "neurotics in the League" actually think and do if only a few Polish politicians dare to discuss unification even in secret.

 

[Petike]

If the rest of the timeline is even half as "bonkers" as FaBR, I can't wait to see it.

Bonkers ? This ! Is ! My ! Timeline !

More seriously : Imagine something like a mix of FABR, Crimson Skies and the 20th century bits of TL-191. Yeah, it's going to go to some weird places. And it is a slightly ASB timeline, though one that I try to ground in reality as much as possible.

I think you underestimate the drive for unification which would exist on both sides of the Vistula. It makes me wonder just what those "neurotics in the League" actually think and do if only a few Polish politicians dare to discuss unification even in secret.

Part of the reason why Lesser Poland and Galicia went their separate way after WWI was due to an allohistorical faction of Polish pro-monarchists who viewed the recreation of a Polish republic as undesirable (hysteria over "oh no, another unreliable republic, just like under those nobles !", you get the idea). They were so desperate for a Polish monarchy, they didn't mind it being a rump version ("as long as it had Kraków, the ancient capital..."), ruled by a dynasty that was only partly ethnically Polish.

 

[Polish Eagle]

If they're both only sparsely industrialized, they'll be looking to either Poland or the Czechs for protection from the Reich or the Soviets sooner or later (speaking of which, wouldn't the Soviets overrun Galicia during the war? I can't imagine Pilsudski intervening in Ukraine without Lwow in Polish hands). So this might be an opportunity for a small-scale demonstration of Pilsudski's Miedzymorze dream--a Polish-led federation of independent states.

Post-war fallout depends on the exact lead-up to ATL WWII. If we have Silesia thrown under the bus in a Munich-like deal, then that'll complicate matters. If, on the other hand, all three Polish states are united under a Soviet-imposed Communist regime, well, shared hatred is the first step to brotherhood.

 

[Petike]

Eh, about the League :

The post-WWI chaos of this TL is not the one that we knew in OTL. If anything, it's largely far worse. Central Europe balkanized after the fall of Austria-Hungary (Hungary's post-1870s history is quite different from OTL). No one could actually remedy it on time before it got out of control. Eventually, the situation calmed down during the 1920s and new successor states came about, but some of the geopolitics in the region had changed significantly. The Versailles Conference was a far bigger failure than in OTL, though some of its basic stabilization efforts survived (many didn't), which has led to an interwar Europe in many ways unfamiliar to us OTLers. This is the first big reason why the League leaders are more pissed and neurotic than in OTL.

To add insult to injury, the Russian Civil War lasted longer, was more drawn-out and even more exhaustive than in OTL. Due to a weaker Red movement and several of its key leaders indisposed at the worst of times, the Russian Empire has fragmented into a chain of "provisional" successor states run by either the Reds or Whites - Soviet republics and "Belogvardeyan" republics. The RCW itself only ended in 1928 and after it

Due to having more work to do in Central Europe than in OTL, the League and Entente peacekeepers were swamped with duties. A need for greater manpower warranted the League to demand more American troops in Europe, to unburden the tired European troops. In the US, tension was rising due to the new prohibition laws, bitterness of WWI veterans, a questionable social environment and the rise of the allohistorical regionalist movement in American politics - inspired by the original Austro-Hungarian "regionalist" philosophy. One of the last straw in the growing domestic tensions was when American peacekeepers in the regions of post-Russia and post-Austria-Hungary grew fed up with their work and revolted in mass, returning home. The quarrels between prohibitioners, regionalists, isolationists and war veterans intesified to unbearable levels... By the late 1920s, the US had suddenly crumbled into several competing countries. And neither Russia, the US or central Europe would see the light of reunification for decades to come.

 

[Petike]

If they're both only sparsely industrialized, they'll be looking to either Poland or the Czechs for protection from the Reich or the Soviets sooner or later (speaking of which, wouldn't the Soviets overrun Galicia during the war? I can't imagine Pilsudski intervening in Ukraine without Lwow in Polish hands). So this might be an opportunity for a small-scale demonstration of Pilsudski's Miedzymorze dream--a Polish-led federation of independent states.

Don't worry, I've thought about that. The fun thing about the central European countries in the setting is that they need to cooperate with each other as allies as often as they need to backstab or double-cross each other. And Pilsudski and his Miedzymorze theories will come into play in the timeine...

Post-war fallout depends on the exact lead-up to ATL WWII. If we have Silesia thrown under the bus in a Munich-like deal, then that'll complicate matters. If, on the other hand, all three Polish states are united under a Soviet-imposed Communist regime, well, shared hatred is the first step to brotherhood.

Late 1930s and WWII Silesia is actually going to end up being ruled by something like a cross between the WWII regime of Slovakia, Szalási's Nyilas regime in Hungary or Pavelić's Ustaša regime in Croatia. Ergo, a puppet state of the alt-fascist Germany of the TL. While fascism exists in my TL and is the main cause of WWII (along with unresolved issues from WWI), the alt-Fascism and its forms are rather different from OTL. For one thing, the Nazis don't come into existence at all. And the alt-Axis has going to have a rather unexpected new member.

 

[Petike]

Incidentally, here's how some of alt-Silesia's insignia will look :

And after the alt-fascist takeover in the late 1930s :

 

[Cryptic]

the Teschen area (I assume that is what you mean by Polish Silesia) had overwhelming Polish majorities.

Did it have an overwhelmingly Polish majority in 1919, or an overwhelmingly Silesian majority in 1919?

My point is that 1919 was before mass travel, education, TV etc. Local cultural identities were stronger and local languages / dialects more more distinct. In the case of Silesia, it is pretty possible that in 1919, a majority of the inhabitants considered themselves to be "silesians" who spoke "silesian" and not poles who spoke "polish". The same with Kashubians.

Of course, the line between pole/ polish and silesian / silesian was blurry. Even still, I dont think it is entirely beyond possibility that inhabitants of Kashubia and Silesia would seek independent nations in 1919- especially in an era when local nationalism was strong.

 

[Lumsden]

Why on Earth would Silesia, of all places, fly the Yoke and Arrows of the Catholic Monarchs of Spain?

 

[Petike]

Did it have an overwhelmingly Polish majority in 1919, or an overwhelmingly Silesian majority in 1919?

My point is that 1919 was before mass travel, education, TV etc. Local cultural identities were stronger and local languages / dialects more more distinct. In the case of Silesia, it is pretty possible that in 1919, a majority of the inhabitants considered themselves to be "silesians" who spoke "silesian" and not poles who spoke "polish". The same with Kashubians.

Of course, the line between pole/ polish and silesian / silesian was blurry. Even still, I dont think it is entirely beyond possibility that inhabitants of Kashubia and Silesia would seek independent nations in 1919- especially in an era when local nationalism was strong.

As I said, this TL is not completely the same as OTL, even prior to the end of WWI. There are loads of subtle little differences and the initial PODs go as far back as the 1860s and 1870s or so. The TL only becomes really divergent from ours during the alternate end and aftermath of their world's WWI.

Why on Earth would Silesia, of all places, fly the Yoke and Arrows of the Catholic Monarchs of Spain?

The totalitarian regime's ideology is - or so they claim - inspired by generalissimo Franco of Spain's falangism. In reality, it is far worse. Franco's regime would seem tame in comparison.

And don't ask me about what happened to Spain. I'd be here all night explaining it all...

 

[Petike]

And yeah, Cryptic, the longer survival of "local nationalisms" will occur ITTL, due to some alternate developments in European political philosophy in the second half of the 19th century.