Sigismund of Luxembourg died in 1394

Obviously Sigismund had much better opportunity to die 2 years later at Nikopolis, but what if illness or accident took his life in 1394? Unlike Nikopolis PoD, that means Mary d'Anjou still lives and remains Queen of Hungary.

What she does after husband's death? In theory there is big opportunity to unite her claim with Durazzo claim, but after death of Charles of Durazzo and Elizabeth of Bosnia there is so much bad blood between Mary and her Durazzo cousins, that it is ruled out.

Perhaps she'd side with Durazzo's enemiy Louis of Anjou-Valois, who at the time fights against Ladislaus of Naples? Valois-Anjou were enemies of her family's enemy, but I have no idea what were relations between them and Hungarian Angevins? It seems, that while they have seen themselves as rightful heirs of Naples, they had absolutely zero interest in Hungary.

@Fehérvári @Zygmunt Stary @Kellan Sullivan
 
Obviously Sigismund had much better opportunity to die 2 years later at Nikopolis, but what if illness or accident took his life in 1394? Unlike Nikopolis PoD, that means Mary d'Anjou still lives and remains Queen of Hungary.

What she does after husband's death? In theory there is big opportunity to unite her claim with Durazzo claim, but after death of Charles of Durazzo and Elizabeth of Bosnia there is so much bad blood between Mary and her Durazzo cousins, that it is ruled out.

Perhaps she'd side with Durazzo's enemiy Louis of Anjou-Valois, who at the time fights against Ladislaus of Naples? Valois-Anjou were enemies of her family's enemy, but I have no idea what were relations between them and Hungarian Angevins? It seems, that while they have seen themselves as rightful heirs of Naples, they had absolutely zero interest in Hungary.

@Fehérvári @Zygmunt Stary @Kellan Sullivan
She will indeed marry into Durazzo/Naples in that situation and Bohemia will go to Elizabeth of Gorlitz if Sigismund's brothers death are not butterflied, the next in line after Elizabeth of Gorlitz are the Dukes of Lower Silesia, particularly, the Dukes of Legnica(Descendants of Margaret of Bohemia) and Sagan(Descendants of Kunigunde of Bohemia).

Perhaps Elizabeth of Gorlitz will be more interesting to marry with Jogaila in this situation.
 
I seriously doubt she'd throw her lot in with the Valois in 1394. Charles VI is mad and his government is dominated by an uncle who is openly critical of the whole Italian project, which means the promise of French assistance that came at various times over the years is certainly never going to materialize now, Louis II controls the capital, but hardly anything else in his kingdom, and now Clement VII -- i.e., the chief sponsor of the Valois in Italy -- is dead too. Their cause was already lost.

If Mary can't bring herself to marry her Durazzo cousin, then her best bet would probably be William of Austria, who was left out in the cold when the Polish nobility forced Jadwiga to marry into Lithuania. It's possible that William's cousin would end up marrying Elizabeth of Gorlitz ITTL, bringing Bohemia to the Albertians and Hungary to the Leopoldians, which would certainly up the stakes in feud between the two Habsburg lines.
 
Perhaps she'd side with Durazzo's enemiy Louis of Anjou-Valois, who at the time fights against Ladislaus of Naples? Valois-Anjou were enemies of her family's enemy, but I have no idea what were relations between them and Hungarian Angevins? It seems, that while they have seen themselves as rightful heirs of Naples, they had absolutely zero interest in Hungary.

Maybe she'd marry just some powerful, domestic magnate from Hungary?
 
Maybe she'd marry just some powerful, domestic magnate from Hungary?
How about the future Tvrtko II? He would be too young to marry in 1394 (only around 13), but that might be a positive for Mary since she could have a grace period to rule without much restrain. The match could also help build a loyal base in Bosnia (and/or a good casus belli to assume direct rule over the province).
 
How about the future Tvrtko II? He would be too young to marry in 1394 (only around 13), but that might be a positive for Mary since she could have a grace period to rule without much restrain. The match could also help build a loyal base in Bosnia (and/or a good casus belli to assume direct rule over the province).

Well, had he been actual heir to Bosnian throne (Bosnia had sort of elective system around that time as far as I remember) than yes, he could be good candidate, but now he is only relative of king of Bosnia without lands of his own, I doubt that would be attractive candidature.
 
Well, had he been actual heir to Bosnian throne (Bosnia had sort of elective system around that time as far as I remember) than yes, he could be good candidate, but now he is only relative of king of Bosnia without lands of his own, I doubt that would be attractive candidature.
He has Árpád and Nemanjić blood though. He might not have actual power to speak of, but his lineage could help build a strong base in Bosnia and Serbia. Deposing Dabiša and strengthening Hungarian authority in Bosnia could face much less resistance with him beside Mary.

If we're being a bit ridiculous, then we could also entertain the idea of Tvrtko eventually getting recognised as King of the Serbs by some of the Serb lands (Hum, Moravian Serbia, Branković district, Zeta). At least, his lineage could give way for such ambitions at the Court in Visegrád/Buda.

Alternatively how about a match with Hermann II von Cilli?
 
He has Árpád and Nemanjić blood though. He might not have actual power to speak of, but his lineage could help build a strong base in Bosnia and Serbia. Deposing Dabiša and strengthening Hungarian authority in Bosnia could face much less resistance with him beside Mary.

If we're being a bit ridiculous, then we could also entertain the idea of Tvrtko eventually getting recognised as King of the Serbs by some of the Serb lands (Hum, Moravian Serbia, Branković district, Zeta). At least, his lineage could give way for such ambitions at the Court in Visegrád/Buda.

Alternatively how about a match with Hermann II von Cilli?

He has Arpad and Nemanjic blood, but no authority and no lands, tho he's also Mary's (albeit distant) cousin, so that might help. Why would some Serb lands recognize Tvrtko when they clearly didn't IOTL? Herman II von Cilli is likely as match for Mary.
 
Why would some Serb lands recognize Tvrtko when they clearly didn't IOTL?
Afaik he didn't even try to claim the Serb crown IOTL. ITTL he would have a strong backer, and some Serbs might be panicky enough (because of the Ottomans) to recognise/support him. It was just a random wild idea though, it's an unlikely match.
Herman II von Cilli is likely as match for Mary.
Is he of high enough standing by this point though? That's what I've been wondering. He did not even possess the Zagorje castles just yet, but he did serve as Slavonian Ban.

I guess it's really down to Ladislaus of Naples or William of Austria, after all. A match with Ladislaus would bring the most benefit to the country, that's for sure, but it might be a hard pill to swallow for both sides.
 
Afaik he didn't even try to claim the Serb crown IOTL. ITTL he would have a strong backer, and some Serbs might be panicky enough (because of the Ottomans) to recognise/support him. It was just a random wild idea though, it's an unlikely match.

He'd need to be king before he marries Mary as I doubt she would marry landless exile, so there it goes and he does not have a backer.

Is he of high enough standing by this point though? That's what I've been wondering. He did not even possess the Zagorje castles just yet, but he did serve as Slavonian Ban.

I guess it's really down to Ladislaus of Naples or William of Austria, after all. A match with Ladislaus would bring the most benefit to the country, that's for sure, but it might be a hard pill to swallow for both sides.

His daughter (I think Barbara was Hermann's daughter) married Sigismund of Luxembourg IOTL so why not?
William match would mean Austro-Hungarian union with clear Hungarian dominance.
 
His daughter (I think Barbara was Hermann's daughter) married Sigismund of Luxembourg IOTL so why not?
That's true, but Hermann's influence was already skyrocketing by that time. AFAIK, he became Sigismund's confidant after Nicopolis, and I'm not exactly sure how was he viewed prior to that.
William match would mean Austro-Hungarian union with clear Hungarian dominance.
Maybe, but it wouldn't solve the Ladislaus issue (and would also drag the country into the Habsburg intra-family feuds). It would be a mess.
He'd need to be king before he marries Mary as I doubt she would marry landless exile, so there it goes and he does not have a backer.
Fair enough.
 
I definitely agree that Sigismund's death in 1394 represents a very good chance to end the division between between Mary's claim and the Durazzo claim... but I am in agreement with your assessment Jan that the bad blood that exists between them c. 1394 likely represents too high of a hurdle to bring about such a match... even if 1394 is the perfect time: Ladislaus II is unattached, his marriage to Costanza Chiaramonte having been annulled in 1392. Political and personal reasons will doom any chance of a union: Sigismund's death likewise frees Mary to once more play a role in government, since iirc she had little influence upon the government by the end of her life. For example, land grants in the first year of her marriage used her great seal to confirm them, but in the years afterward her confirmation was not sought. Royal Charters counted her regnal years not from her own ascension, but from Sigismund's coronation.

Sigismund's death will free her, in some form. But I have no doubt her council and the magnates will likely want her to remarry ASAP—especially since she has no child of her own. Without a child, her closest heir would be her sister Jadwiga: I can't imagine many in Hungary relish the idea of being tied to Poland once again, especially with the growing troubles in the Balkans with the Ottomans.

As for Hermann II of Cilli: was he unmarried c. 1394? His last daughter was born c. 1392. His eldest son, Frederick, was born c. 1379... a bit younger than Mary, but he'd be 15 in 1394: useful if Hermann II wants to be a power behind the throne. I can't speak to Hermann II's influence prior to Nicopolis, however. Frederick II also seems to be a bit of a character too (murdered his OTL wife in 1422).

I agree re: Tvrtko II that as it stands, he probably isn't an attractive candidate. King Ostoja of Bosnia apparently had issues as king, he alienated the nobility and he was deposed in 1404. Maybe Ostoja is deposed sooner? Tvrtko II would still be young, but by 1397-98 he'd be 16-17 and might be elected in opposition to Ostoja? I suppose I have my doubts of Mary pushing off marriage for 3-4 years, especially as by 1398 she'd be 27. She's not an old woman by any means, but the sooner she marries the better... and she will be pressured / pushed to do so to secure the succession.
 
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Maybe, but it wouldn't solve the Ladislaus issue (and would also drag the country into the Habsburg intra-family feuds). It would be a mess.

Around that time Hungary just stomps Austria if it wants to, Matthias Corvinus conquered it without having any Austrian support, so here William should stomp his cousins no problem, the problem is that Wenceslaus IV might solidify his alliance with Jogaila (and Sigismund here is dead and so is any loyalty Wenceslaus might have to Sigismund) to combat William's rise and they might support other Habsburgs, tho the threat here would be Bohemia and to lesser extent Poland, not Austrians themselves. And well, solving Ladislaus issue is just impossible at that point, there is too much of a bad blood between both lines of Angevin family.

That's true, but Hermann's influence was already skyrocketing by that time. AFAIK, he became Sigismund's confidant after Nicopolis, and I'm not exactly sure how was he viewed prior to that.

Well, we know for a fact he was rich and influential before Nicopolis, so he has enough power to be at least viewed as viable marriage prospect.
 
relish the idea of being tied to Poland once again

Why not? They'd think that they'll get Red Ruthenia back (Hungarian lords made such request when Vladislaus the 3rd took Hungarian crown) and they would also probably think that the rest of Poland would end up as integrated as Croatia was, so absolutely non-threatening to their interests + they'd think Poles would help them against OE (tho them wanting Poles to help was after Grunwald/Tannenberg so here it might be non-existent factor).
 
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Around that time Hungary just stomps Austria if it wants to,
With the kind of domestic instability the country was facing, I don't think so. In regards to this, it would be great to know wether the Horvátis live ITTL or not though. As long as there are more than one claimant to the throne with significant support, royal authority will suffer from it.
This map demonstrates well how royal power collapsed after Louis' death:
kirlyi_vrszervezet_1382_1406.jpg

The white squares represent royal castles/forts that came under private or church ownership in the time period of 1382 to 1406.
so here William should stomp his cousins no problem
It largely depends on external factors, just like you wrote in your next sentences.
Also, all the time spent dealing with Austrian politics or with Ladislaus, that is time inwhich the Ottomans were allowed to remain unchecked.
And well, solving Ladislaus issue is just impossible at that point, there is too much of a bad blood between both lines of Angevin family.
We can't know that for sure.
Well, we know for a fact he was rich and influential before Nicopolis, so he has enough power to be at least viewed as viable marriage prospect.
His wife died only in 1396, so he wouldn't be immediately available. Would that pose a problem?
 
With the kind of domestic instability the country was facing, I don't think so. In regards to this, it would be great to know wether the Horvátis live ITTL or not though. As long as there are more than one claimant to the throne with significant support, royal authority will suffer from it.
This map demonstrates well how royal power collapsed after Louis' death:

Even with domestic instability, Austria is small, divided, not that rich and populous. Corvinus had to cope with claimants non-stop (even his own uncle betrayed Corvinus and Jagiellons launched full-fledged military expeditions against Corvinus and Jagiellons ruled over Poland, which despite all it's downsides was more a factor than Austria) and see how smooth work he did with Austria. Honestly, besided Ottomans, Bohemia and maybe Poland I don't see any neighbour of Hungary who it doesn't stomp around that time if it wants to. And well, I don't think Sigismund dying would change anything in the fate of Horvati. Tho Mary without Sigismund's influence (who didn't have such personal grudge against them) might dedicate more time.


We can't know that for sure.
Mary saw her own blood mother murdered by Ladislaus's supporters, tho we can't know anything for sure unless we ask Mary but without anyone who could force her to reconcile I would bet on her being unwilling to reconcile.

It largely depends on external factors, just like you wrote in your next sentences.

It does, but the actual argument is "Bohemia and Poland will be pissed off if Hungary de facto annexes Austria" not "Habsburgs will do anything to Hungary". And if Hungary gets Austria it means that Austrians will go fight Ottomans as well.
His wife died only in 1396, so he wouldn't be immediately available. Would that pose a problem?

Didn't know that, if that's not the case, maybe match with some Moldavian or Wallachian ruler would work? Maybe George Branković, father of Lazar (who was one of the contenders to Hungarian crown IOTL in 1444) would work if he wasn't married already?
 
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