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Just an idea I had: assuming that Barbara Radziwiłłl was really poisoned by her mother in law (Bona Sforza) in 1551 and that Sigismund II of Poland accidentaly is also killed with his wife, who would get the Polish throne? Could the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be formed earlier, and a random noble be elected?
The king's father, Sigismund I, didn't have other sons, but he had several daughters. I wonder if one of his grandsons could claim the throne. Through his eldest daughter Hedwig one candidate would be the 12 years old Sigismund of Brandenburg, a younger son of the Elector of Brandenburg. His mother was Catholic, but he was raised as a Lutheran.
Other possibility, and probably supported by Bona Sforza, would be the 10 years old John II Sigismund Zápolya, son of Bona Jagiellon (daugther of Bona Sforza) and claimant king of Hungary. Of course, this candidate would be extremely opposed by the Habsburgs.
So, what would be the most likely consequence of Sigismund's earlier death?
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