Sigismund II of Poland dies in 1551: who inherits the throne?

Just an idea I had: assuming that Barbara Radziwiłłl was really poisoned by her mother in law (Bona Sforza) in 1551 and that Sigismund II of Poland accidentaly is also killed with his wife, who would get the Polish throne? Could the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be formed earlier, and a random noble be elected?
The king's father, Sigismund I, didn't have other sons, but he had several daughters. I wonder if one of his grandsons could claim the throne. Through his eldest daughter Hedwig one candidate would be the 12 years old Sigismund of Brandenburg, a younger son of the Elector of Brandenburg. His mother was Catholic, but he was raised as a Lutheran.
Other possibility, and probably supported by Bona Sforza, would be the 10 years old John II Sigismund Zápolya, son of Bona Jagiellon (daugther of Bona Sforza) and claimant king of Hungary. Of course, this candidate would be extremely opposed by the Habsburgs.
So, what would be the most likely consequence of Sigismund's earlier death?
 
Just an idea I had: assuming that Barbara Radziwiłłl was really poisoned by her mother in law (Bona Sforza) in 1551 and that Sigismund II of Poland accidentaly is also killed with his wife, who would get the Polish throne? Could the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be formed earlier, and a random noble be elected?
The king's father, Sigismund I, didn't have other sons, but he had several daughters. I wonder if one of his grandsons could claim the throne. Through his eldest daughter Hedwig one candidate would be the 12 years old Sigismund of Brandenburg, a younger son of the Elector of Brandenburg. His mother was Catholic, but he was raised as a Lutheran.
Other possibility, and probably supported by Bona Sforza, would be the 10 years old John II Sigismund Zápolya, son of Bona Jagiellon (daugther of Bona Sforza) and claimant king of Hungary. Of course, this candidate would be extremely opposed by the Habsburgs.
So, what would be the most likely consequence of Sigismund's earlier death?

If he dies same time as Barbara, then thats 1550? So I suppose it would end up falling to Hedwig...as "king" ( she is the eldest daughter from the first marriage ) the Union of Lublin is not in effect so the monarchy is not elective yet. this would be the desired outcome for the Hapsburgs as well as Joachim was there ally at that time. As long as she hasn't had her accident that crippled her...in which case thats probably butterflied. Joachim is going to have to be far more deferential in future.
 
Anybody supported by Bona might have serious problems with gaining the crown - she was REALLY unpopular. Young Sigismund of Brandenburg might have more chances. Are you really sure he was a Lutheran? I think in 1552 he became archbishop of Magdeburg.
Other possibility is finding a husband for Anna Jagiellon, Sigismund II's sister. IOTL she was crowned Queen of Poland and all candidates for Polish crown had to swear to marry her. Since she was a royalty, her husband could not have been a simple nobleman - he had to be royalty as well.
As far the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth goes, it is hard to say. IOTL Sigismund II worked many years to achieve it. While both countries were more or less interested in some kind of union, there were serious differences concerning terms of the union. Poles preferred more or less unification of both countries, Lithuanians opted for much more loose union or federation. I can very well see a timeline in which newly elected Polish King is not accepted as the Great Duke of Lithuania by Lithuanian magnats. Let's say Bona has her way, John II Sigismund is crowned king of Poland. Lithuanian magnats, especially Radziwiłł (Radivla) family are furious and refuse to aknowledge little John (he's 11) as their duke. The Polish-Lithuanian Union is broken. Eventually it ends very badly for Lithuania, which only 10-20 years later is partitioned between Moscovia and Poland.
 
Anybody supported by Bona might have serious problems with gaining the crown - she was REALLY unpopular. Young Sigismund of Brandenburg might have more chances. Are you really sure he was a Lutheran? I think in 1552 he became archbishop of Magdeburg.

Oh, you're right, I misunderstood it. He was actually the last Catholic Archbishop of Magdeburg. So no religious problem for him to get the throne.
Interesting enough, as a younger branch of the Hohenzollern, Sigismund could inherit Brandenburg if the old line becomes extinct, or even it would make an easier annexation of Prussia (that was ruled by the same family) back to the royal domain.
 
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