Sigismund Francis, Archduke of Austria survives and has issue

So, as it says on the tin, what might have changed had Sigismund Francis, Archduke of Austria, and ruler of Tyrol had lived passed his death in 1665, and sired a son with his wife Hedwig? I assume this would mean that Tyrol remains separated from the mainline Austrian inheritance for a period of time, and that there might be a candidate for imperial election should something happen to the mainline further on down the line.

Other than that what could happen?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
The House of Saxe-Lauenburg doesn't die out as Julius Francis marries someone else. Also Leopold may not be as interested in marrying Claudia Felicia as her uncle would still be around to carry on the Tyrolean line so marrying her doesn't resolve any inheritance issues. So maybe she marries James II which has big ramifications. I'd guess that Leopold just marries his third wife earlier than OTL as his second wife, but that means different children. Possibly a marriage between one of his children and one of Sigismund Francis'.
 
The House of Saxe-Lauenburg doesn't die out as Julius Francis marries someone else. Also Leopold may not be as interested in marrying Claudia Felicia as her uncle would still be around to carry on the Tyrolean line so marrying her doesn't resolve any inheritance issues. So maybe she marries James II which has big ramifications. I'd guess that Leopold just marries his third wife earlier than OTL as his second wife, but that means different children. Possibly a marriage between one of his children and one of Sigismund Francis'.

Oh interesting, that does look good, and makes sense, though would James II marry Claudia Felicia considering she was a second choice to Mary of Modena, who came with a bigger dowry?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Not sure, I don't know all that much about the negotiations from the perspective of the English Court. But I thought it had progressed far enough that he had dispatched someone to Innsbruck to ask for her hand. Leopold swooped in and proposed before he got there. But maybe it was just an initial visit to feel things out. I'm honestly not sure. And it's not to say that Leopold wouldn't still marry her anyways.
 
Not sure, I don't know all that much about the negotiations from the perspective of the English Court. But I thought it had progressed far enough that he had dispatched someone to Innsbruck to ask for her hand. Leopold swooped in and proposed before he got there. But maybe it was just an initial visit to feel things out. I'm honestly not sure. And it's not to say that Leopold wouldn't still marry her anyways.
This is true, I have a feeling she was considered a certainty before Leopold swooped in, so yeah that might or might not happen aha
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Well I think her mother Anna de' Medici was, like Claudia Felcitas' grandmother and namesake Claudia de' Medici, a pretty aggressive guardian of her daughters interests. OTL Claudia Felicitas was the last of her line and her mother was trying to secure something of the Tyrolean inheritance for her if only in the form of a large dowry. Marrying Leopold (who had essentially seized the Tyrolean estate) resolved that nicely. But if Sigismund Francis lives she has no claim to anything and will have to get by with what he agrees to dole out as a dowry. But she's pretty and the match still makes sense for James as it did OTL since he wasn't after an inheritance. But for Leopold perhaps not so much. I assume that Sigismund, as head of the Tyrolean line, has something to say about any match so he's probably the deciding factor.
 
Well I think her mother Anna de' Medici was, like Claudia Felcitas' grandmother and namesake Claudia de' Medici, a pretty aggressive guardian of her daughters interests. OTL Claudia Felicitas was the last of her line and her mother was trying to secure something of the Tyrolean inheritance for her if only in the form of a large dowry. Marrying Leopold (who had essentially seized the Tyrolean estate) resolved that nicely. But if Sigismund Francis lives she has no claim to anything and will have to get by with what he agrees to dole out as a dowry. But she's pretty and the match still makes sense for James as it did OTL since he wasn't after an inheritance. But for Leopold perhaps not so much. I assume that Sigismund, as head of the Tyrolean line, has something to say about any match so he's probably the deciding factor.

This is very true, he could probably swing it to Leopold as it being a stepping stone toward moving Britain away from France ideologically.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Though one wonders what kind of relationship Sigismund would have with Leopold. He's not powerful enough to be a serious rival so I wonder if he'd try to pursue a policy independent of Vienna. Along those lines if he has a son quickly enough he'd be a candidate for the hand of Leopold's daughter Maria Antonia, which would present a good solution to the issue of the Spanish succession, at least from the Habsburgs dynastic perspective. I mean obviously it would likely not be a great marriage in terms of producing healthy children but I think to the Austrian and Spanish courts it would be seen as an ideal solution for keeping a Habsburg on the Spanish throne. And actually when you look at the lineages Maria Antonia and Max Emmanuel were just about as closely related as Sigismund's son would be to her so it maybe wouldn't be too much worse than OTL. They're still playing the long odds on the genetic roulette wheel so it could just come down to luck, and if Fortuna smiles on the son of Tyrol then just maybe the War of the Spanish Succession goes away too. Especially if the King of England is still James and is married to Sigismund's niece. Maybe he uses his French connections to broker a compromise that would generally favor his cousin in law and would work better than the OTL partition treaties that completely failed to resolve the issue.
 
Though one wonders what kind of relationship Sigismund would have with Leopold. He's not powerful enough to be a serious rival so I wonder if he'd try to pursue a policy independent of Vienna. Along those lines if he has a son quickly enough he'd be a candidate for the hand of Leopold's daughter Maria Antonia, which would present a good solution to the issue of the Spanish succession, at least from the Habsburgs dynastic perspective. I mean obviously it would likely not be a great marriage in terms of producing healthy children but I think to the Austrian and Spanish courts it would be seen as an ideal solution for keeping a Habsburg on the Spanish throne. And actually when you look at the lineages Maria Antonia and Max Emmanuel were just about as closely related as Sigismund's son would be to her so it maybe wouldn't be too much worse than OTL. They're still playing the long odds on the genetic roulette wheel so it could just come down to luck, and if Fortuna smiles on the son of Tyrol then just maybe the War of the Spanish Succession goes away too. Especially if the King of England is still James and is married to Sigismund's niece. Maybe he uses his French connections to broker a compromise that would generally favor his cousin in law and would work better than the OTL partition treaties that completely failed to resolve the issue.

Oh that could be quite good, though I have a feeling Louis would push for a son of his to marry Maria Antoina, as the Habsburg surrounding them was a huge fear of theirs for two centuries at this point.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
True. Doubt Leopold would consider a French match but Louis would at least try to prevent Leopold's daughter from marrying a Habsburg of any branch to make sure his own son is in a better position to claim the Spanish throne or some part of the Spanish empire as against which ever minor prince Maria Antonia does marry, preferably one more amenable to French interests then a Habsburg Archduke. Maybe Louis tries to tempt Sigismund away from Maria Antonia by offering up Anne Marie d'Orleans for the latter's son with a fat dowry to really make her appealing. That would free up the Duke of Savoy for Maria Antonia which was considered at one point OTL, though I don't think Louis would be pleased with potentially moving Savoy to the Austrian camp and positioning them to add Savoy, right on the French border, to Spanish Italy so his efforts may backfire or at least prove to be only partially successful.

Anyways adding another branch to Habsburg tree in the late 1600s does change the dynastic calculus surrounding the Spanish succession even if Sigismund's line would have a direct claim themselves. Add to that the previously mentioned potential to upend the succession in England and one lowly Archduke could have a surprisingly big impact even if he himself never accomplishes anything of note outside of the Tyrol.
 
True. Doubt Leopold would consider a French match but Louis would at least try to prevent Leopold's daughter from marrying a Habsburg of any branch to make sure his own son is in a better position to claim the Spanish throne or some part of the Spanish empire as against which ever minor prince Maria Antonia does marry, preferably one more amenable to French interests then a Habsburg Archduke. Maybe Louis tries to tempt Sigismund away from Maria Antonia by offering up Anne Marie d'Orleans for the latter's son with a fat dowry to really make her appealing. That would free up the Duke of Savoy for Maria Antonia which was considered at one point OTL, though I don't think Louis would be pleased with potentially moving Savoy to the Austrian camp and positioning them to add Savoy, right on the French border, to Spanish Italy so his efforts may backfire or at least prove to be only partially successful.

Anyways adding another branch to Habsburg tree in the late 1600s does change the dynastic calculus surrounding the Spanish succession even if Sigismund's line would have a direct claim themselves. Add to that the previously mentioned potential to upend the succession in England and one lowly Archduke could have a surprisingly big impact even if he himself never accomplishes anything of note outside of the Tyrol.

This is extremly true, seeing Sigismund's son as a marriage candidate for Maria Antonia would be fascinating. I am not sure if Leopold would make her renounce her claim to the throne if she was married to a Habsburg, which means shit's getting intense. Seeing James II remain on the English throne is always good as well
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Yeah, it definitely gets interesting quick when you work out some of the butterflies. Elaborating on England for a moment I'm not convinced James could survive on the throne, given his performance OTL just changing out his wife for a different but still Catholic princess may not change much. Perhaps if Claudia Felicitas has a son early (I love the idea of him being named Charles Felix) then maybe he's raised protestant and the English put up with James until he dies and they get a good Anglican Charles III? Kind of like those PODs where the Duke of Cambridge lives and is raised up protestant alongside Mary and Anne.

Regardless I doubt Claudia would do better in England than Mary of Modena did given the incredible hurdle of her Popish religion. As interesting as it would be to imagine her influencing James and English policy in favor of her Habsburg relations maybe it'd be easier in some ways if she dies in childbirth like she did OTL, but this time only after a healthy son is born of course. That way it would be easier to ensure he's raised protestant and there'd be less Catholic influence and thus maybe controversy at court unless James marries another Catholic princess. Maybe with a healthy son and heir he, and probably everyone else at court, would be content with him having a long term mistress rather than another foreign Catholic bride. You could easily have it go in whatever ever direction you'd like really.
 
Yeah, it definitely gets interesting quick when you work out some of the butterflies. Elaborating on England for a moment I'm not convinced James could survive on the throne, given his performance OTL just changing out his wife for a different but still Catholic princess may not change much. Perhaps if Claudia Felicitas has a son early (I love the idea of him being named Charles Felix) then maybe he's raised protestant and the English put up with James until he dies and they get a good Anglican Charles III? Kind of like those PODs where the Duke of Cambridge lives and is raised up protestant alongside Mary and Anne.

Regardless I doubt Claudia would do better in England than Mary of Modena did given the incredible hurdle of her Popish religion. As interesting as it would be to imagine her influencing James and English policy in favor of her Habsburg relations maybe it'd be easier in some ways if she dies in childbirth like she did OTL, but this time only after a healthy son is born of course. That way it would be easier to ensure he's raised protestant and there'd be less Catholic influence and thus maybe controversy at court unless James marries another Catholic princess. Maybe with a healthy son and heir he, and probably everyone else at court, would be content with him having a long term mistress rather than another foreign Catholic bride. You could easily have it go in whatever ever direction you'd like really.
This is very true. Unles James defeats whatever opposition there was to him thoroughly
 
Couple observations about the scenario posited:

- Anna de Medici wasn't popular at Vienna (IIRC it had to do with her Medici blood, and Cosimo III's marriage to a French princess didn't help matters), and said unpopularity transferred to her daughter, the Empress. So, if Sigmund Franz lives then Anna's perhaps still less popular, but since she's not in the same position as OTL, it doesn't matter. Leopold would only be interested in Klaudia as a wife if he's a widower and she's the last of her line. Remove one of those factors (like Empress Margarita Teresa living longer or Sigmund Franz having a son) and the match is considerably less likely to happen.

- Maria Antonia and a hypothetical son would be more distantly related than her and Maximilian II. OTL, through her dad, they were second cousins (he's a cousin in varying degrees through his mother (a Savoyard princess descending from Felipe II), her mother (a Spanish infanta born of a match between his cousin once removed (Maria Anna) and her uncle (Felipe IV)).
By contrast, Sigmund Franz's son is born of a princess of Pfalz-Sulzbach (who's mum is a Nassau-Siegen), and Sigmund's mom is a Medici (daughter of a Lorrainer princess). His closest relation to Leopold I is through Archduke Karl of Inner Austria (also dad to Emperor Ferdinand II, Queen Margarethe of Spain (Felipe IV, Anne of Austria and Empress Maria's mother), and Maria Magdalene, Grand Duchess of Tuscany (Anna de' Medici's mom)). Suitably foreign I'd imagine.

-As to Saxe-Lauenburg surviving, I'm not so sure. The dukes there have got a bloodline so concentrated its making Carlos II and the Ptolemies cry (with joy or fear is anyone's guess). However, Julius Franz is in a reasonably good place since from what I can make out from the Askanier family tree, all his female cousins/kinswomen are past childbearing age or already married by his wedding in 1668, save one: Eleonore Charlotte (b.1646), daughter of Franz Heinrich of Lauenburg and Juliane of Nassau-Siegen (sister to his OTL wife's Siegen mother). So if Julius can avoid marrying Eleonore (maybe she's already wed by '68 - though she only wed in '76, IDK why), he MIGHT be able to marry to counteract the Lauenburg inbreeding. Don't know who he'd marry though, since Lauenburg wasn't overly important by then FWIG.
 
Couple observations about the scenario posited:

- Anna de Medici wasn't popular at Vienna (IIRC it had to do with her Medici blood, and Cosimo III's marriage to a French princess didn't help matters), and said unpopularity transferred to her daughter, the Empress. So, if Sigmund Franz lives then Anna's perhaps still less popular, but since she's not in the same position as OTL, it doesn't matter. Leopold would only be interested in Klaudia as a wife if he's a widower and she's the last of her line. Remove one of those factors (like Empress Margarita Teresa living longer or Sigmund Franz having a son) and the match is considerably less likely to happen.

- Maria Antonia and a hypothetical son would be more distantly related than her and Maximilian II. OTL, through her dad, they were second cousins (he's a cousin in varying degrees through his mother (a Savoyard princess descending from Felipe II), her mother (a Spanish infanta born of a match between his cousin once removed (Maria Anna) and her uncle (Felipe IV)).
By contrast, Sigmund Franz's son is born of a princess of Pfalz-Sulzbach (who's mum is a Nassau-Siegen), and Sigmund's mom is a Medici (daughter of a Lorrainer princess). His closest relation to Leopold I is through Archduke Karl of Inner Austria (also dad to Emperor Ferdinand II, Queen Margarethe of Spain (Felipe IV, Anne of Austria and Empress Maria's mother), and Maria Magdalene, Grand Duchess of Tuscany (Anna de' Medici's mom)). Suitably foreign I'd imagine.

-As to Saxe-Lauenburg surviving, I'm not so sure. The dukes there have got a bloodline so concentrated its making Carlos II and the Ptolemies cry (with joy or fear is anyone's guess). However, Julius Franz is in a reasonably good place since from what I can make out from the Askanier family tree, all his female cousins/kinswomen are past childbearing age or already married by his wedding in 1668, save one: Eleonore Charlotte (b.1646), daughter of Franz Heinrich of Lauenburg and Juliane of Nassau-Siegen (sister to his OTL wife's Siegen mother). So if Julius can avoid marrying Eleonore (maybe she's already wed by '68 - though she only wed in '76, IDK why), he MIGHT be able to marry to counteract the Lauenburg inbreeding. Don't know who he'd marry though, since Lauenburg wasn't overly important by then FWIG.
Intriguing, so in your mind would Leopold push for Maria Antonia to marry a son of Sigismund then? And what happens if one of his and his first wife’s sons survives?
 
So, how does this sound regarding the issue of Sigismund Francis:

Sigismund Leopold (b. 1666)

Claudia (b. 1669)

Charles (b. 1673)
 
So, how does this sound regarding the issue of Sigismund Francis:

Sigismund Leopold (b. 1666)

Claudia (b. 1669)

Charles (b. 1673)

Maybe Leopold Sigmund if he's really sucking up :).

Intriguing, so in your mind would Leopold push for Maria Antonia to marry a son of Sigismund then? And what happens if one of his and his first wife’s sons survives?

Always bet Habsburg over any outsider. And if you mean Leopold's son by Margarita - either Archduke Ferdinand Wenzel (b.1667, d.1668) or Archduke Johann Leopold (b.1670) - surviving, the ramifications could be rather large. For instance, if Ferdinand Wenzel were to survive (his brother was premature from what I've read) it might mean Margarita Teresa's health isn't ruined quite so quickly.

To illustrate my point, Ferdinand Wenzel died in January 1668, his sister (Maria Antonia) followed in January 1669, Johann in February 1670 and youngest sister (Maria Anna) in February '72. PLUS Margarita was pregnant but miscarried twice (since a German source on her lists six pregnancies). The only time she could've had those extra two were in '69 and again in '71 (if one discounts the rumor that she died 4-6months pregnant - only found one source to suggest that and no corroboration). So very much like Marie Leszczynska (always being taken to bed or brought to bed). A healthy-ish son means that while they ARE trying for another, the need isn't URGENT. But, until said son has kids of his own, Maria Antonia will most likely go through several unofficial betrothals to Sigmund Leopold, which will alternate with her being offered to Turin or Münich or Paris (if Louis XIV has a second son).
 
Maybe Leopold Sigmund if he's really sucking up :).



Always bet Habsburg over any outsider. And if you mean Leopold's son by Margarita - either Archduke Ferdinand Wenzel (b.1667, d.1668) or Archduke Johann Leopold (b.1670) - surviving, the ramifications could be rather large. For instance, if Ferdinand Wenzel were to survive (his brother was premature from what I've read) it might mean Margarita Teresa's health isn't ruined quite so quickly.

To illustrate my point, Ferdinand Wenzel died in January 1668, his sister (Maria Antonia) followed in January 1669, Johann in February 1670 and youngest sister (Maria Anna) in February '72. PLUS Margarita was pregnant but miscarried twice (since a German source on her lists six pregnancies). The only time she could've had those extra two were in '69 and again in '71 (if one discounts the rumor that she died 4-6months pregnant - only found one source to suggest that and no corroboration). So very much like Marie Leszczynska (always being taken to bed or brought to bed). A healthy-ish son means that while they ARE trying for another, the need isn't URGENT. But, until said son has kids of his own, Maria Antonia will most likely go through several unofficial betrothals to Sigmund Leopold, which will alternate with her being offered to Turin or Münich or Paris (if Louis XIV has a second son).

Aha Leopold Sigismund seems appropriate.

And alright this is true, having Ferdinand Wenzel survives seems apt as well, preventing some other issues that might be good.
 
Top