Sides in WW1 if France won the Franco-Prussian War?

Does this mean that Germany does not exist? If so I still see Prussia and Austria-Hungary banding together to protect against French dominance.. But maybe France takes some of the German principalities into its own sphere? And UK would be a lot less worried about Germany and continue their traditional stance towards France, so as long as the alt Central Powers don't touch Belgium they are golden. France itself could possibly remain an empire under the Bonapartes, maybe that plays into it somehow? Combined with lack of friendly UK. maybe they seek stronger bonds with other monarchies like Russia (more French financial assistance might even weaken the revolutionaries) and perhaps Spain?
 
Nothing resembling World War I happens, so I will try to address the effect on the European alliance system.

There is no united Germany, though Prussia keeps its gains from the Austro-Prussian War, even if the North German confederation is dissolved. There will probably be a French dominated South German Confederation. Italy will gravitate towards France. Russia and Austria-Hungary will still be opposed to each other, over the Balkans and as a hangover from the Crimean War. Prussia and Russia will tend to be allied.

In this situation, Austria will need an ally against Russia, Prussia, and Italy, and the only options are France or Britain. Austria and France should have allied in 1866-70, but maybe that is the POD. You likely see Austria as some sort of a junior partner against France.

So if a Balkan crisis leads to a general European war, its essentially Austria and France against Russia and Prussia. But southern Germany will be in the Austro-French sphere. Italy will be neutral at first, but will want to join Russia and Prussia if it looks like they are winning. Turkey will lean towards joining the Austro-French side, however both Turkey and Italy will want to be careful to wind up on the same side as Britain.

The British will also lean strongly towards the Austro-French side, since Prussia still controls the Ruhr and is a commercial rival, and even with Anglo-French colonial rivalries, Russia is much more of a threat to the Middle East and India. However, there will be no invasion of Belgium in this war, instead Prussia and Russia will aim to combine against Austria-Hungary first. There is no reason for the British to raise a large army and send it across the channel in this situation, and they probably will wait much longer to enter the war, if they enter it at all.
 
How would France win the Franco-Prussian war?

Easy POD :

More defensive tactics that will the superiority of the Chassepot and a better use of the machines-guns the French owned.

No defeat in Sedan and no capture of Napoleon III.

A better coordination between the French corps, that will transform the Battle of Gravelotte from a tactical French victory to a complete victory with very heavy losses for the Germans.


More difficult POD :

The French don't forget that they have the best artillery in Europe during the end of the XVIII century and the beginning of the XIX century and French artillery is better during the war.

And even if it is not possible, the French can buy the surplus of the Union Army that develop heavy artillery for use during the Petersburg campaign...


The war can end by a return to the statu-quo antebellum. The French resist German invasion and it is a draw.

To be a victory, it must be also political, Bayern and the others Southern German states must choose an option were they stayed independant rather than aligned with Prussia.

The only possible territorial concession from the Germans is to return to the pre-revolutionary borders where a part of Saarland was French... Marechal d'Empire Michel Ney was born here.
 
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More defensive tactics that will the superiority of the Chassepot and a better use of the machines-guns the French owned.
The French tried that IOTL, but it didn't work: generally, after the first few waves of Prussian infantry were shot down, the Prussians just got their guns to blast the French into smithereens. Getting a better artillery arm would be a better bet, IMHO.
 
So if a Balkan crisis leads to a general European war, its essentially Austria and France against Russia and Prussia. But southern Germany will be in the Austro-French sphere. Italy will be neutral at first, but will want to join Russia and Prussia if it looks like they are winning. Turkey will lean towards joining the Austro-French side, however both Turkey and Italy will want to be careful to wind up on the same side as Britain.
Mmh, that is basically how WWI went in the Bonaparte's Legacy mod for Darkest Hour (though there the Franco-Prussian war was avoided instead), with the exception of Britain. In that mod the British had declared war on France over their invasion of Belgium in WWI. The creators apparently were fond of parallelisms.
 
At one point of its OTL history, Germany choose that they preferred Austria-Hungary than Russia as its main European Ally. Choosing AH as an ally mean also loosing Italy as an ally in the long term, because Italy had more territorial problems with AH than with France.
 
The French tried that IOTL, but it didn't work: generally, after the first few waves of Prussian infantry were shot down, the Prussians just got their guns to blast the French into smithereens. Getting a better artillery arm would be a better bet, IMHO.

If the French put their machines gun on the first line, the Prussian infantry will even more suffered. And because artillery is still firing a direct fire, defensive position can be choose to avoid artillery direct fire...
 
What countries would be in this alternate Triple Entente and Central Powers if France had defeated Prussia

It was natural for France and the United Kingdom to be allied against a Central European power such as Germany in OTL or Prussia if Germany is not united and some German States stayed out of an ATL united Germany...

The dynamic growth of Germany was a clear threat to the UK...

While France and the United Kingdom were more partners to avoid a destabilisation of the European Order by Germany or the World Order by Russia.

Don't forget that all the new independant Balkans nations as Greece or Romania choose German monarchs to rule them.

If Prussia is not able to unite "Small Germany" after a victorious war in 1870, it will probably try to unite with Southern German States by provoking some popular uprisings in favor of a United Germany... With a kind of German Garibaldi and its volunteers.

If this "popular" German nationalism became out of control, its next victim is Austria Hungary and probably Switzerland, the goal being to unite all Germans under one rule by force...

Russia can be buy with Prussia given it Eastern Galicia and Germany keeping Krakow and Western Galicia.

A big Hungary will be a German Protectorate while Italy will receive Trieste and parts of Dalmatia.

Serbia will also participate to AH partition.
 
The Prussian government in the 1860s was interested in expanding Prussia and in elevating the Hohenzollerns, not in German nationalism. They made no attempt to annex Austria or Bohemia. A defeat by France is a signal to stop expanding.

The southern German states will fall into the French sphere of influence. Bavaria had usually been a French ally. The North German confederation still exists. Most of it is Prussia territory, and except for Saxony, the minor members of the Confederation are surrounded by Prussia. I suspect Saxony slips out of the North German confederation, and the other minor states like Brunswick become part of Prussia to all intents and purposes, or the "Kingdom of Germany" or "Kingdom of North Germany" is formed, that is essentially post 1867 Prussia with some of the minor statelets.

With a few obvious exceptions, such as 1757-62 and 1807-13, Prussia throughout its history had generally allied with Russia, with the alliance usually directed against Austria. There was still sentiment in elite circles in both St. Petersburg and Berlin to keep that alliance, instead of the alliances with Austria and France. Despite Bismarck's efforts, Germany being the strongest power on the European continent meant that the other powers would tend to combine into an anti-German alliance, for balance of power reasons. This was particularly true of the external powers, Russia and Britain. Austria-Hungary was a German ally because it was always at odds with Russia.

With France as the strongest continental power, Russia and Britain will tend to be anti-French. The French, and this will be a surviving empire with the Bonarpartes as the ruling dynasty, will try to keep the British from joining their enemies due to bad historical memories. Austria-Hungary will naturally gravitate towards France in these circumstances, and there will be an understanding or alliance between St. Petersburg and Berlin.

And obviously no invasion of Belgium ITTL, even in a general European war. Its not needed for France, since Bavaria and Austria will be allies so they don't need to go through Belgium to get into Germany. They will be more worried about pissing of the British, especially as France had more cause to worry about their overseas colonies. Prussia or North German starts the war on the defensive and will have to deal with Austria-Hungary.
 
Austria hungary and russia would probobly get silesia , Russia getting lower silesia, Posen, Krakow, mostly polish majority areas, for congress poland, to reward the poles and keep them loyal. and congress poland being one of the richest regions in Russia, I assume they would do that

Norht German confederation, UK, Italy vs France, Russia, Austria Hungary
 
Austria hungary and russia would probobly get silesia , Russia getting lower silesia, Posen, Krakow, mostly polish majority areas, for congress poland, to reward the poles and keep them loyal. and congress poland being one of the richest regions in Russia, I assume they would do that
Why do you think Napoleon III would insist on giving land to Russia if he won the war?
 
Why do you think Napoleon III would insist on giving land to Russia if he won the war?
Russia would join em if Prussia seems to be doomed. To gain prestige and a quick victory, And france is like austria who is isolated in Europe, If he gave that land, well it's gonna go into france's favoir
 
Germany probably not being united would be a game-changer for sure and change the balance of power. Prussia and Russia probably continue their alliance and Britain joins in on France's side.
 
If France wins enough to impose terms, which of these old territorial borders is France more likely to claim from the German states if it wins, a relatively modest increase to get the borders of 1814 (in orange) or a much more dramatic increase to get the border of 1801 (in blue)?

How well, or poorly, would either of these impositions be received Europe-wide or in Britain?
F-P alts1.jpg

Yet a third option, perhaps more sensitive to the divisions between German states, might involve French annexation of Prussian Rheinprovinz only, leaving Bavarian Palatinate alone, while resurrecting all the states liquidated by Bismarck in 1866 like Hanover (a sop to Britain & Hanoverian/Guelph sentiment?), Electoral Hesse, Lauenberg, etc.
F-P alts2.jpg

A fourth option might be France being restrained and taking no territory for itself, but resurrecting all the states liquidated Bismarck in 1866, and then brokering an exchange of the Rhineland-Westphalia to the Wettin Dynasty of the Kingdom of Saxony, to get the Prussians off France's border, compensate the Wettins with a larger Kingdom, and keep the Prussians and Austrians in each other's faces.
FP-alts3.jpg
 
If France wins enough to impose terms, which of these old territorial borders is France more likely to claim from the German states if it wins, a relatively modest increase to get the borders of 1814 (in orange) or a much more dramatic increase to get the border of 1801 (in blue)?

How well, or poorly, would either of these impositions be received Europe-wide or in Britain?
View attachment 678111
Yet a third option, perhaps more sensitive to the divisions between German states, might involve French annexation of Prussian Rheinprovinz only, leaving Bavarian Palatinate alone, while resurrecting all the states liquidated by Bismarck in 1866 like Hanover (a sop to Britain & Hanoverian/Guelph sentiment?), Electoral Hesse, Lauenberg, etc.
View attachment 678112
A fourth option might be France being restrained and taking no territory for itself, but resurrecting all the states liquidated Bismarck in 1866, and then brokering an exchange of the Rhineland-Westphalia to the Wettin Dynasty of the Kingdom of Saxony, to get the Prussians off France's border, compensate the Wettins with a larger Kingdom, and keep the Prussians and Austrians in each other's faces.
View attachment 678113
The "smartest" option feels like the Wettin one. But I could see France taking more land than that and it's perhaps more plausible they go for one of the first two.
 
The French performed much poorer than they should have/could have. This was due to rather below average French generals who had mostly been chosen for political reliability and imperial favour and a change in doctrine. Bazaine, MacMahon, Canrobert, Bourbaki etc. were tough, battle hardened and very experienced officers but peaked at the level of corps commanders. They lacked the talent, cerebral thinking and energy for independent command. They were demoralised from the start as the French offensive was a shambles and then and just fumbled about afterwards.

Previously, the French had an aggressive infantry doctrine (the furia francese) and followed the general maxim of marching to the sound of the guns, e.g. joining engaged corps to extend the front lines and bring more force to bear.

With the introduction of the Chassepot rifle, the French realised that the defence was likely superior to the outright attack. The result was that individual corps commanders would pick an excellent defensive spot and then refuse to budge, only fighting a static battle of firepower.

The result was that the French would repulse initial German attacks, often inflicting heavy casualties, but would gradually be overwhelmed as more and more Germans arrived because they did support each other. Meanwhile, quite substantial French forces would be in supporting distance but remain sitting on their arses because their commanders refused to give up their excellent defensive positions. And quite often, the moment that the first German attacks were repulsed would be perfect for a counter-attack to sweep the Germans off the field but again, the French refused to budge.

If you read up on the campaign, it shows a litany of missed opportunities and outright French stupidity, like failing to post camp guards, failing to send out cavalry scouts, constantly being outmarched by the Prussians because the French troops and commanders were lazy, etc. Prussian artillery was superior but that didn’t win the war for the Germans. It was their ability to outnumber the lethargic French where it mattered that made the difference.

Just a modicum of more energy and common sense would have made it more of an even fight but for the French, everything that could go wrong went wrong. Unfortunately, that gave the Germans an inflated sense of superiority which indirectly led to WWI where the French showed they could indeed fight when not lead by idiots.

As an aside, the Austrians had been led by General Benedek in 1866, another general who had made his reputation as a hard-fighting corps commander but was also mentally overwhelmed by the burden of army/theatre command and became passive and overly attached to strong points to shield his army instead of manoeuvring in the field to gain a tactical advantage.

Like the French in 1870, Benedek allowed the Prussians to dictate the tempo and direction of the campaign and was overwhelmed in what seemed a one-sided war but could have been far more even if not for their apathy.
 
As I see it immediately after the war:
A Prussia that has beaten Austria but has lost to France will be a very loyal ally to Russia because it will be very reliant on the russians (seen as the only possible counterweight to France for the time being). France OTOH will see no real reason to go out of its way to ally Russia like OTL - as they are still the Great Nation, the strongest in Europe. Austria is everyone's guess. Prussia even as the North German Confederation is not Germany and without the South German states joining in the german question is not solved by any means. OTOH they will still have difficulties with Russia on the Balkans. Austria will probably be on friendly terms with London.

A prusso-austrian alliance excluding Russia is unlikely at this point: Austria doesnt have a stellar record in it's last wars and hoping for Austrian support against the frech to achive prussian expansion in Germany is very unlikely to succeed. The point is that for Prussia the priority will be too keep the russian alliance. Austria might join this alliance but that won't change the priorities for Berlin.

However as time goes by things will change: I dont think that this loss will butterfly the differences between the french and german population growth - it might effect the development of the german economy however - slow it down somewhat bu it wont kill it. The dynamics wont change: Germany(Prussia) is becoming stronger compared to France. Seeing this a 2nd round is very likely. France is either isolated or has allied with Austria (Italy is very unlikely because a monarchist France relies on the support of the french catholics and the price for an italian alliance would be Rome). Russia will either sit it out or if Austria joins France attack Austria - the whole might start actually from a Balkan crisis.

The british will have a difficult time deciding whom to support. They don't want the russians in Constantinople (or anywhere near it) or the french expanding in Europe. Might depend on which conflict starts a war - but in the end like OTL they would not really mind an isolated Franco-Prussian war with a prussian victory.
 
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