Siberia without Russia

They didn't really bother with Hokkaido until pretty late on though. The big ah cliche yellow siberia will only come about if a convergantly militaristic, aggressive Japan steals it from someone IMO.
Hm, I suppose that is a point- Japan only seemed to become interested in northern expansion after the Meiji Restoration and having to suppress the Ezo Republic, so while I doubt there'd be much in Kamchatka to resist Japan from coming in, Japan's northern interest of OTL could easily disappear given a different set of circumstances.
 
China never took the central asian states.
Its likely they would go further into Siberia than they did but getting the whole lot? I think a extended central asia is more likely.

Russia never expanded into central Asia until the 19th century, well after Qing China stopped expanding. The fact was after the mid-18th century reconquest of Xinjiang, Qing China did not follow up with further westward expansion even while it was at the apogee of power. This is unlike the Baikal area, where the Qing made some claims.

Thus IMO had Russia been slow in its eastward expansion, the Qing Chinese would occupy Baikal, making further eastward expansion unfeasible. Unless of course the Russians push the Chinese out by war. Should the Chinese keep the Russians out of Baikal, in time the rest of the Russian far east would go to China by default.

But this is just the Russian Far East, not all of Siberia, which Qing China had no interest nor capability to acquire, even without competition. If the Russians don't want it, something like the Khanate of Sibir would occupy that space.
 

Susano

Banned
"Moderate" climate? Maybe in comparison with Antarctica...:rolleyes:
Well, yes, but thats an important comparision: Life, settled life an deven civilsied life are all possible in Siberia. If we poostulate that for some reason Russia never ever gains the Siberian lands, than the Chinese will in the end get them, even if its an awfully long process. In earlie rcenturies Chinese settlers managed to settle and thrive in the hot climate of Southern China, surely, Chinese settler would also endure Siberias cold climate.

They didn't really bother with Hokkaido until pretty late on though. The big ah cliche yellow siberia will only come about if a convergantly militaristic, aggressive Japan steals it from someone IMO.

Japan indeed didnt bother to annex Hokkaido, but did have soem suzeranity over it. And if China gets Siberia... well, China never was much intersted in naval matters, and probably they will not establish a larger port in the area (after all, they already have far better ports to the Pacific in far better developed lands), so they might not care for the islands there (Hokkaido, Sakhalin, Kuriles) at all. So just like Chinese possession of Siberia would be a very longdrawn process but would happen, Japanese possession of those would be equally londgrawn but would most likely happen. Well, I guess, unless a naval colonial power like Portugal and Great Britain comes by and shows some interest...
 
Sahaidak, being (my assumption based on his nik) from x-USSR and familiar with Russian version of history, got it right. Furs were THE reason for Russian colonization and one needs to take fur trade out to made Siberia undesirable for Russia initially. How to do it, I have no idea. Rabidly anti-Russian Poland, may be, permanently at war and blocking trade routes with Europe. Plus Ottoman Empire shifting a lot of their attention to Russia from Balkans.

Keep them out of Kazan. They started expanding east once the khanate became a Russian subject under Ivan the Terrible. More to the point, the expansion was directed largely from the upper Volga. If the Russians aren't on the Volga, they'll probably do little more than Novgorod did in OTL - loose sovereignty over parts of western coastal Siberia.
Upper Volga was under Russian control before Kazan fell, so this route to Urals remains open even if Kazan remains independent but does not expand significantly.

Someone here once wrote that Sibirian was colonised because Russia tried to control the Cossack, and they chose to flee into the Sibirian plains but the Russian state followed them the entire way to the Pacific ocean.
Relationships between Cossacks and Russian govt were complicated and could not be described in "war" or "serfdom" templates. Closest analogy would be relationships between successful Carribean pirates of early 17th century and English Crown. Gangs of outlaws, strongly opposed to govt control but often ready to share their spoils with govt in exchange for forgiveness or protection. Cossacks "bowed to Czar with newly aquired lands and it's inhabitants and asked for forgiveness". Yermak himself had been an outlaw for a long time. And "Cossack States" in Siberia is ASB. Cossack units rarely exceeded several hunderds men (pretty often being several dozen strong). There're no chances to create "STATE" with population this numerous.
There were a lot of people that came to Siberia to avoid control but those Cossacks that expanded Russian influence were in service to Russian state (the other arrived later).
And even outlaws were always willing to make a deal.

Although Russia had pushed beyond the Urals during Ivan the Terrible's time, the real push toward the Pacific did not happen until the mid-17th century during the reign of Alexis I.

For the bulk of Siberia to not come under Russian rule, the "Time of Troubles" (1598-1613) between the fall of the Rurik dynasty and the rise of the Romanov dynasty would have to be a lot more troublesome and long lasting. Either that or Russia comes under the rule of a foreign king, i.e the king of Poland.
AFAIK Russians reached the Pacific in 1640's, first fights between Cossack and Chinese (or Chinese clients) are mid-1650s. And Russia under Polish king could be even more expansionist (IOTL decade or two had been spent to re-establish national administration, in Polish Russia it would likely be Polish administrative model quickly expanded in Russia).

Because they showed so much interest in the time before the Russians came... :rolleyes:
Settlement activity in Siberia is ASB before mid-19th century, as there's no type of agriculture viable in this climate. Even today agriculture remains confined to southern Siberian borderlands. Chinese do not have type of agriculture suitable for conditions (unlike Russians, who could and did transplant their ancient "rye and cattle" model in Siberia).

Edit: Answering OP question, I see some form of "Scramble for Siberia" in mid 19th century, similar to "Scramble for Africa" IOTL. With same participants, plus Japan (likely) and China (reluctantly, but they will be drawn in the game too).
 
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yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The Russians were east of Ural before Peter the Great, then again if Russia only colonized the Westernmost parts of Siberia, China would probably have a larger influence, Japan could have gained influence on the coast line. Perhaps some small Mongol or Tartar state could exist there for a while.
 
if Russia only colonized the Westernmost parts of Siberia
I would say that if Russians (I dunno, even smallish independent princedom) control Upper Volga, it would be enough to get Western Siberia eventually. There's nobody in neighborhood to oppose them before China conquers Turkestan (and we're not sure it will ever happen), as nomadic armies are miserable in Taiga and there's nothing to do there for nomads. So yes, everything from Urals to Baikal is more or less bound to be "discovered" by Russians. Scrap Russians, any farming population of Upper Volga will conquer Western Siberia eventually.

China would probably have a larger influence
Yes, possible, from Baikal to Pacific, as nomadic screen is either non-existing or thin enough.

Japan could have gained influence on the coast line
I dunno, Russians seriously appeared on coast line well into second half of 18th century, although no European country challenged their ownership there. Wouldn't it be "Russian" land in European colonial games, coast would be most likely British or French. Japanese are latecomers anyway.

some small Mongol or Tartar state could exist there for a while.
Yes, Tartar state did exist in SW Siberia IOTL when Russians came. It only took five hundreds of gun-wielding cutthroats to make it history. And this "state" is about as much nomadic military power as region could sustain
 
How long could it reasonably remain empty - or at least unclaimed by any world power?
Assuming that ASBs messed up territory now known as European Russia pretty badly (one will need to keep it in permanent condition close to 30-years war in terms of devastation, especially after gunpowder makes it debut), I would say that most of it could be unclaimed until 2nd half of 19th century. You see, rivers are flowing into Northern Ocean there, and it isn't really possible to exploit them before Age of Steam (yes, I'm aware of the Mangazea, but there's long way upstream from Yenisei Gulf and reaching Upper Amazonia is a piece of cake comparing with Mangazea - Kemerovo voyage). So, loosely claimed - second half of 18th century, empty - end of 19th century.
 
If you somehow take Russia completely out of the picture than the Chinese, Dutch, English, Japanese, Kazakhs, Koreans, Manchus, Mongols, Scandinavians, and/or Tatars will nibble on the edges while leaving most of Siberia largely untouched. In the 18th and 19th centuries it will be divided in a manner similar to North America, based on some very loose claims. Unless some of the natives manage to organize into something the outsiders will recognize as a state.
 
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