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Britain/Austro-Hungary/Italy/Turkey v France/Russia/Greece

The Siamese crisis during July of 1893 was one of the most likely chances of war between the two great rivals of Britain and France before their alliance at the beginning of the following century. It acts as a catalyst for a hypothetical global conflict between France, Russia and Greece on one side, and Britain, Austro-Hungary and Italy on the other.


The early 1890’s were France’s last serious opportunity to make any sort of a challenge to British naval supremacy. Due to the effects of the ‘Jeune Ecole’ in the 1880’s, the French laid down no battleships over a five year period (1884-1888), while the British laid down four. The Naval Defence Act of 1889 saw Britain lay down an astonishing nine battleships in the next two years that were at the cutting edge of naval technology and whose design would form the basis for the world’s battle fleets prior to the Dreadnought. The French would start only one battleship in that period, and that would be the small under gunned Brennus. The continuation of this building programme, combined with much faster construction rates than the French could manage, meant that by the turn of the century the Royal navy seemed unassailable.


The summer of 1893 was an opportune time for the French navy, as in June, the British Mediterranean Fleet flagship, Victoria, sank following a collision with the battleship Camperdown. Camperdown sustained serious damage and was under repair until late September. Also, the battleship Howe was still undergoing repairs following her grounding on Ferrol Rock in November 1892, and she would not return to service until the beginning of November.


The Russians had long feared British intervention at the Turkish straits, and had for many years made serious plans to seize them in a surprise pre-emptive invasion. With the British distracted by war with France this would have been just about as a good an opportunity as they were ever going to get. The Russian alliance with France was basically a done deal at this time and their intervention on the French side would have been highly likely. Any Russian advance against Turkey would have immediately brought in Austro-Hungary and Italy on Britain’s side due to their Mediterranean Agreements of 1887. This was a German initiative to keep Russian expansion at bay without having to become directly involved in the fighting. The actual non intervention of Germany would have been unlikely, but is necessary to keep the scenarios balanced. As the whole point of the Mediterranean Agreements was to keep Germany out of a war with Russia and France, while entangling Britain against them, I have assumed that the Kaiser has decided to let the Mediterranean alliance do its job while Germany sits it out. The Russians and French are also mindful of keeping Germany out of the conflict and to that end they have not invaded Austro-Hungary and Italy respectively.


The inclusion of Greece is again to even things out, but it is highly plausible. The Greeks were still smarting from a British led naval blockade of Greece in 1886 that had prevented them attacking Turkey. A Russian attack on Turkey would have been the perfect opportunity for them to get to grips with their ancient nemesis.


Although the Fashoda Crisis is now seen as the biggest chance of war between the two old enemies of Britain and France in the late 19th Century, in reality, the massive rise of German power was looming over both nations at this time, and the crisis actually acted as a realization to both that their future lay in alliance. In 1893 however, the Germans didn’t have a single first class battleship in commission and no plans to build many. With the Germans still seen as a nominal ally by Britain, France, along with Russia, were still viewed as the great menace.
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