Siamese Crisis of 1893 leads to war

Britain/Austro-Hungary/Italy/Turkey v France/Russia/Greece

The Siamese crisis during July of 1893 was one of the most likely chances of war between the two great rivals of Britain and France before their alliance at the beginning of the following century. It acts as a catalyst for a hypothetical global conflict between France, Russia and Greece on one side, and Britain, Austro-Hungary and Italy on the other.


The early 1890’s were France’s last serious opportunity to make any sort of a challenge to British naval supremacy. Due to the effects of the ‘Jeune Ecole’ in the 1880’s, the French laid down no battleships over a five year period (1884-1888), while the British laid down four. The Naval Defence Act of 1889 saw Britain lay down an astonishing nine battleships in the next two years that were at the cutting edge of naval technology and whose design would form the basis for the world’s battle fleets prior to the Dreadnought. The French would start only one battleship in that period, and that would be the small under gunned Brennus. The continuation of this building programme, combined with much faster construction rates than the French could manage, meant that by the turn of the century the Royal navy seemed unassailable.


The summer of 1893 was an opportune time for the French navy, as in June, the British Mediterranean Fleet flagship, Victoria, sank following a collision with the battleship Camperdown. Camperdown sustained serious damage and was under repair until late September. Also, the battleship Howe was still undergoing repairs following her grounding on Ferrol Rock in November 1892, and she would not return to service until the beginning of November.


The Russians had long feared British intervention at the Turkish straits, and had for many years made serious plans to seize them in a surprise pre-emptive invasion. With the British distracted by war with France this would have been just about as a good an opportunity as they were ever going to get. The Russian alliance with France was basically a done deal at this time and their intervention on the French side would have been highly likely. Any Russian advance against Turkey would have immediately brought in Austro-Hungary and Italy on Britain’s side due to their Mediterranean Agreements of 1887. This was a German initiative to keep Russian expansion at bay without having to become directly involved in the fighting. The actual non intervention of Germany would have been unlikely, but is necessary to keep the scenarios balanced. As the whole point of the Mediterranean Agreements was to keep Germany out of a war with Russia and France, while entangling Britain against them, I have assumed that the Kaiser has decided to let the Mediterranean alliance do its job while Germany sits it out. The Russians and French are also mindful of keeping Germany out of the conflict and to that end they have not invaded Austro-Hungary and Italy respectively.


The inclusion of Greece is again to even things out, but it is highly plausible. The Greeks were still smarting from a British led naval blockade of Greece in 1886 that had prevented them attacking Turkey. A Russian attack on Turkey would have been the perfect opportunity for them to get to grips with their ancient nemesis.


Although the Fashoda Crisis is now seen as the biggest chance of war between the two old enemies of Britain and France in the late 19th Century, in reality, the massive rise of German power was looming over both nations at this time, and the crisis actually acted as a realization to both that their future lay in alliance. In 1893 however, the Germans didn’t have a single first class battleship in commission and no plans to build many. With the Germans still seen as a nominal ally by Britain, France, along with Russia, were still viewed as the great menace.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Germany has a great diplomatic position here if they bother to notice. All of their enemies/rivals will be blowing one another to bits.

Likely makes the Germans more secure, from direct attack or adventurism for the duration of the and a decent interval afterwards.

What would you recommend the Germans do on the diplomatic/strategic offensive to gain land, prestige, money without pressing their luck too far?
 
Yup, Germany will probably be in the same position as the USA was in OTL (and might still be in in this timeline), selling supplies to the side it favours (if not both) but only entering the war late, when all the harsh lessons are learned and the enemy is nearly exhausted and willing to discuss even an awful peace settlement. Whoever loses the war, Germany looks to have the most to gain by far.
 
This was certainly Germany's dream ticket. Despite Bismarck no longer being in office, this would certainly have been a great success for him. He had repeatedly told Russia that Germany would not stand in the way of their plans to seize the Turkish straits, while secretly orchestrating the Mediterranean Agreements with the aim of specifically thwarting such a move.

Such a war would weaken Germany's three main rivals:Britain, France and Russia. It would also push Britain into the arms of the Triple Alliance where Germany could obtain colonial concessions from Britain, possibly at the expense of the French, in return for her 'freindship'. A win/win scenario, without losing the blood of one German soldier.
 
I don't have time for more but the Siamese crisis was a very convenient occasion to double level team Siam.

England told France to stop and paid themselves with Siamese territory. Very convenient for everyone really
 
Absolutely. As long as the French were happy with only part of Siam, Britain was prepared to deal. But if France had insisted on the lot, that is when war could have occurred.
 
Excuse me, but what's the main PoD and context for this scenario? From what i hear, french and british forces were allied during the Paknam Incident.
 
Excuse me, but what's the main PoD and context for this scenario? From what i hear, french and british forces were allied during the Paknam Incident.

Absolutely not! The French empire in south-east Asia had been expanding throughout the late 19th Century, with the acquisitions of Cochinchina, Annam and Tonkin (modern Vietnam), and Cambodia. The French then turned their attention west to the large nation of Siam. In early 1893 they demanded control of the Siamese territory to the east of the river Mekong (Modern Laos). The Siamese initially resisted, and so in July the French sent the warships to Siam. The French were refused passage to Bangkok at the entrance to the river Chao Phraya, just south of the village of Paknam. A breif battle was fought at the mouth of the river as the French successfully forced their way through. This was known as the Paknam incident.

Following the French victory at Paknam the Siamese still refused to the French demands and so France upped the stakes by declaring a naval blockade in the Gulf of Siam. Great Britain was extremely concerned that France would incorporate Siam into their growing far eastern empire. This would bring French colonial possessions in South East Asia to the very borders of British controlled Burma. Britain also stood to lose out economically from a French controlled Siam as most of Siam’s trade was with Britain. The situation was tense with both sides having warships in the Gulf.

The British encouraged the Siamese to back down and accept the French terms so that the French would not advance beyond the Mekong. They feared that if Siam refused then France would take all Siam and thus be at the borders of the British Empire and this the British would not accept.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Anyone want me to put together the RN's battleship list as of this potential war? Could be fun to compare with the French and Russian battlelines of the same time.
 
So how would the naval war play out?Even with so many battleships knocked out,wouldn't France still be completely disadvantaged in the naval combat given Jeune Ecole is useless in open sea?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
So how would the naval war play out?Even with so many battleships knocked out,wouldn't France still be completely disadvantaged in the naval combat given Jeune Ecole is useless in open sea?
I'll try to get some sense of the answer to that one by looking at the battle lines.
 
That's a very interesting discussion.

Wasn't there already a doctrine saying colonial conflict would not spread to the metropoles or did it come only after Fashoda?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
So, battleships of France, Russia and GB as of 1893 with their year laid down noted. Anything laid down pre-1875 not noted.


France
Coastal barbette

Devastation (1875)
Courbet (1875)

Barbette

Adm. Duperre (1876)
Adm. Baudin (1878)
Formidable (1879)
Hoche (1880)
Marceau (1882)
Magenta (1882)
Neptune (1882)

Stationnaire barbette
Bayard class, Vauban class (four total, earlier than Neptune)

Summary

6 coastal battleships, 7 full battleships, none laid down after 1882. One further ship completes in 1896.


Russian

Ekaterina II (1883)
Chesma (1883)
Sinop (1883)
Georgiy Pobedonosets (1881)
Imperator Aleksandr II (1885)
Imperator Nikolai I (1886)

Six battleships, can't find any others. None more modern than the Aleksandrs. Many additional ships complete in 1896.


Royal Navy
Orion (1875)
Agammenon (1876)
Ajax (1876)
Conqueror (1879)
Hero (1884)
Colossus (1879)
Edinburgh (1879)
Collingwood (1880)
Anson (1883)
Camperdown (1882) DAMAGED
Howe (1882) DAMAGED
Rodney (1882)
Benbow (1882)
Victoria (1885) SUNK
Sans Pareil (1885)
Trafalgar (1886)
Nile (1886)
Royal Sovereign (1889)
Empress of India (1889) FINISHED THIS YEAR
Ramilies (1890) FINISHED THIS YEAR
Resolution (1890) FINISHED THIS YEAR
Hood (1889) FINISHED THIS YEAR

In 1894 an additional four battleships join the fleet, and in 1895 a further two do. 1896 sees yet a further three join.

Summary: if this war starts in 1893, not only does the RN have fifteen battleships (generally more modern than their opponents) in hand and four joining the fleet, but two more are under repairs and another six join the fleet by the end of 1895 - before their opponents see any further ships to aid them. The Patent Royal Navy Giant Pre Dreadnought Pez Dispenser has been well and truly fired up.
 
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