Shortest Pacific War?

[e of pi]

Okay, so it's something of a well-discussed point here that Japan got really lucky to do as well as it did in the Pacific, and there's innumerable things which all could have "taken months off the war"--submarine torpedoes which worked, forces deployed to Wake or the like which could have enabled those islands to hold at least temporarily, slightly better luck in early battles (carrier and surface) which might have seen more of Japan's prewar fleet destroyed earlier when it was still committed all over the Pacific. But...where's the actual minimum length of the war?

Is it possible to achieve victory on only forces available before the period in 1943 when the Americans start seeing the benefits of the Two Ocean Act in massive numbers? Is it possible to assemble the necessary mass of force for an invasion or bombing campaign before the A-bomb is developed? Or does it just turn into a stalemate on Japan's doorstep where the US can't push to victory, but Japan isn't willing to throw in the towel?

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Start by having the Filipino Army fully funded. You could have enough Commonwealth forces to protect Malaysia and Burma. Better intelligence, so the US and UK expect the attack on December 7.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

My favorite scenario revovles around the USN battle line closing to twelve nm of Nagumos carrier fleet, from the west, at dawn, as the first planes start down the decks on 7 December the Japanese are silhoutted against the rising sun and are arrayed on the radar displays of the US ships.

Another dozen miles to the west Halseys & Fletchers carriers had just formed up their first strike & the squadrons make their final circle before heading east to the reported enemy.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

My favorite scenario revovles around the USN battle line closing to twelve nm of Nagumos carrier fleet, from the west, at dawn, as the first planes start down the decks on 7 December the Japanese are silhoutted against the rising sun and are arrayed on the radar displays of the US ships.

Another dozen miles to the west Halseys & Fletchers carriers had just formed up their first strike & the squadrons make their final circle before heading east to the reported enemy.

Awesome but honestly isn't possible.

 

[MattII]

Prince of Wales not taking a torpedo hit on the prop shaft would help, since she was much better equipped to resist air attack than Repulse, and so might actually have been able to fight through it, just, and hit the invasion.

 

[Color-Copycat]

Divine wind wrecking the Japanese fleet as it sets sail for Pearl.

 

[TFSmith121]

THIS on a board where that sees a new ZEELOWE! thread

Awesome but honestly isn't possible.

THIS on a board where that sees a new ZEELOWE! thread on a monthly basis?

Cripes, it's more likely than the Kiel Power Squadron and the Frisian Coast Guard successfully carry the PanzerArmeeAnglilandt across the Channel in June, 1940, with the amphibious Tiger tanks of Herr General-Feld-Marshal-Truppen-Meister Erwin Von Rommel-Student-Skorzeny's Furst FallschirmSchwimpanzer Division...

And that seems to show up at least once every couple of weeks.

Best,

 

[Admiral Halsey]

THIS on a board where that sees a new ZEELOWE! thread on a monthly basis?

Cripes, it's more likely than the Kiel Power Squadron and the Frisian Coast Guard successfully carry the PanzerArmeeAnglilandt across the Channel in June, 1940, with the amphibious Tiger tanks of Herr General-Feld-Marshal-Truppen-Meister Erwin Von Rommel-Student-Skorzeny's Furst FallschirmSchwimpanzer Division...

And that seems to show up at least once every couple of weeks.

Best,

True. Still seeing an ASB TL about that would be something to read so long as the writer knows what he's doing wouldn't be possible and has fun with it.

 

[free115]

Start by having the Filipino Army fully funded. You could have enough Commonwealth forces to protect Malaysia and Burma. Better intelligence, so the US and UK expect the attack on December 7.

This multiplied by ten. Having the Japanese invasions get stalled at the beaches as the Americans go on war footing would see the war end faster.

 

[Riain]

Have Malaya/Singapore/Sumatra not fall in Feb 42, but hold out and have to be reinforced. Even if Japan did eventually win this would soak up the forces that IOTL were used in the SWPA and limit the Japanese advance and make the march to Japan that much shorter.

 

[FasterThanRaito]

The only limiting factor is how you define a "war".

The absolute shortest "Pacific War" would be a diplomatic accident where war is declared and then cancelled after a couple hours of sorting out miscommunications.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

But...where's the actual minimum length of the war?

The key point is when Japan is willing to surrender. Even more than Germany, Japan was dominated by fanatics, many of whom preferred the annihilation of the country to surrender on any terms.

It's going to take a while for the Allies to batter Japan down to where the fanatics lose control.

But... Suppose the Pacific War is delayed several months. In the meantime the British finish off the Axis in North Africa. They then transfer veteran Australian and Indian divisions to Malaya and Burma, and also send lots of airplanes, and someone competent and energetic to replace Percival in command.

This causes the Malaya-Singapore campaign to last six months instead of two, and consume everything Japan can possibly commit.

Also meanwhile, the U.S. substantially builds up forces in the Philippines. The Philippine campaign also stretches out.

The Japanese are exhausted. The only oil they capture is Brunei. By the time they attack the "Malay Barrier", Allied forces are too strong for them. They don't even attack Burma or Rabaul.

In 1943, the Allies liberate Malaya by sea from Sumatra and by land from Burma, then the Natuna Islands, and then Sarawak and Brunei. Japan now has no oil, except a trickle from Sakhalin.

Meanwhile Allied supplies pour into China via the Burma Road; also a U.S. expeditionary force to advise and stiffen the Chinese army, which drives the Japanese out of south China. More supplies and Americans arrive via Hong Kong, and the Chinese/American forces push the Japanese out of central China. Taiwanese nationalists in the Japanese administration of Taiwan stage a coup d'état and surrender to the Allies in return for recognition as independent. U.S. forces liberate the Philippines while the British clean out Indochina.

At the end of 1944, Allied forces take Okinawa. Most of the troops are Chinese. Allied bombers flying from China lay waste to many Japanese cities. The U.S. Navy and Marines have cleared out Micronesia.

The militarist pipe dream of a fanatical defense in the Home Islands breaking American will by heavy casualties has been dispelled by the presence of large numbers of Chinese troops in the Okinawa fighting. The Chinese won't flinch at the losses, and everyone knows it.

Enough is enough. Hirohito overrules the militarists, and Japan surrenders.

The war has lasted 32 months (April 1942-December 1944).

 

[Draconis]

Go after the oil.

If there are no PODs permitted before Dec.7 1941 and the Allies only have the same forces available as in OTL then you likely would see the same Japanese successes up to April 1942. Considering that Japan launched its very desperate gamble to secure resources especialy the oil they were going to run out of in 6 months or so then I think a much greater Allied effort to deny Japan oil should have been conducted starting as soon as land based targets identified and Japanese shipping routes established.

What I have in mind is the USN submarine campaign primarily directed toward Japanese tankers. This is where we need a POD or two. Fixing the torpedoes, even if just replacing the contact pins and faulty depth control would increase the reliability hugely. Having this done early in 1942 would certainly make its effect felt.

Next step requires another POD. Someone high up in the USN command structure has to appreciate the value of mining. Particularily mining from submarines since at that point in the Pacific War that was the only way to mine Japanese controlled harbours.

If an intensive submarine campaign hunting tankers and mining harbours in the DEI, Bornei, Brunei and the Home island harbours used for tankers was conducted through 1942 and if it was successful Japan would be running out of fuel in early 1943 with all that entails.

With the Japanese forces largely rendered impotent due to a lack of fuel for their planes and ships the U.S. island hopping campaign may only require the capture of one of two strategicaly located islands for example Wake to support an earlier naval blockade of the Japanese Home islands.

A naval blockade of Japan starting in mid-1943 would hopefully force the Japanese government, whatever form it may take at that point, to surrender after the terrible privations the of winter 1943-44 would inflict on Japan. So ending the Pacific War 18 months earlier.

I