Short World War I - Entente Victory - Consequences

[Alratan]

Inspired by the thread about Belgium not being attacked in WW I.

It's quite plausible that you could get a World War I that really is over by Christmas (nearly), with an Entente victory. If the Germans don't get the nitrates in Antwerp, and, say Tannenberg goes the other way, then six months into the war the Germans are in very deep trouble.

In these circumstances French tactics of elan and the charge could actually work, as the Germans run out of their supplies of powder.

What happens then?

The Germans will be being pushed back out of France and Belgium, and back into Germany, the Russians will be marauding through central Europe, and Serbia will still be holding out in th Balkans.

What will Germany do, and then, what will the rest of the CP do?
Will Germany come to the table if the French take the Ruhr?
Will the rest of the CP be permitted to surrender - I can see Italy jumping upon A-H, and Russia refusing to end its campaign in the Caucuses.

 

[Darkling]

Do the Ottomans jump in with a reverse Tanneberg?

 

[Anaxagoras]

This is basically the premise of the Rule Britannia TL- although my POD is Gallipoli rather than events in Europe.

Politically, the main consequences are the continuation of the UK's status as a global superpower, the lack of a revolution in Russia and the persistence of isolationism in the United States.

Culturally, Europe does not lose faith in itself as a civilization.

 

[Alratan]

Do the Ottomans jump in with a reverse Tanneberg?

Probably - the Ottoman-German Treaty was signed on August 2nd, and the effects of a reverse Tannenberg probably won't sink in for a couple of months, as the Russians can't advance that much further anyway.

 

[Darkling]

Probably - the Ottoman-German Treaty was signed on August 2nd, and the effects of a reverse Tannenberg probably won't sink in for a couple of months, as the Russians can't advance that much further anyway.

Then Britain gets the German navy and merchant marine, in addition to money to compensate for the sunken shipping in the German last gasp total submarine war.

Colonies go as OTL.
French get Alsace-Lorraine and will be aiming for more of the West bank of the Rhine.

Russians get Galicia and eastern Prussia.

Italians get what they did in OTL, perhaps a little more.

Serbia gets Bosnia but most likely little else.

The Romanians might pick up Transylvania if they are quick enough jumping in.

A-H has taken quite a kicking but they are still a going enterprise.

The Ottomans are going to get hit the hardest, OTL will happen plus probably losing all of Europe to Bulgaria (if they are quick enough), the Russians are going to push for Constantinople, the Britsih and French will probably try for a free city or something.

If the Greeks jump in then Smyrna should be theirs (with the allies powerful enough to ensure they keep it).

Something approaching Wilsonian Armenia is likely (especially if the Russians don't get Constantinople), the British will get what they did in OTL and possibly something heading into Kurdistan liker Territory.
The French may get a little more Anatolia to add to Syria.

The Britsih may also pick up that bit of Saudi Arabia they had wanted and we will see no deals made with the locals.

The Ottomans might get better terms at a general peace conference but my feeling is that the Germans would throw them under a bus.

Of course given the embryonic stage of the war in the area one might think that the Ottomans would get a better deal but if Bulgaria joins in then the ammunition production seems certain to fall after which point it is only a matter of time until the allies have gotten what they want.

If the Ottomans quickly hand over their Empire once things seem to be going south the Britsih may conspire with the French to let them keep Constantinople but they would have to hand over pretty much what they did OTL and probably more.

The French are probably going to want to disarm the Germans but the British will quickly view Russia as the new threat, an attractive and radical solution would be taking Bavarian into A-H, that would both keep the Anti-Russian front strong whilst reducing the German threat to France.

 

[stevep]

Alratan

Possibly a good POD for this might be the French keep their original plan of meeting the Germans head on instead of trying to break into A-L. There will be a hell of a head on clash. However, since the French are not desperate to regain lost territory while the Germans need to attack, if the French dig in the German army could see the bulk of its forces creamed in a huge mincing machine. Might well not get British or Ottoman involvement in this case. [I think the Ottomans only jumped about Oct-Nov time so they could well decide otherwise, even if the Goeben embarrasses them].

Darkling

While I agree with a number of your other suggestions I see little basis for the partition of the Ottoman empire, even if it sides with Germany, which under those circumstances could be unlikely. This occurred historically in part because the British had occupied so much of it and Ottoman power had virtually collapsed. There was no way of maintaining it. This would not be the case in a short war. I could see the loss of Thrace, Smyrna and Armenia say but little reason for most of the Arab lands to be lost.

Steve

 

[Darkling]

Darkling

While I agree with a number of your other suggestions I see little basis for the partition of the Ottoman empire, even if it sides with Germany, which under those circumstances could be unlikely. This occurred historically in part because the British had occupied so much of it and Ottoman power had virtually collapsed. There was no way of maintaining it. This would not be the case in a short war. I could see the loss of Thrace, Smyrna and Armenia say but little reason for most of the Arab lands to be lost.

Steve

The problem is that the Ottomans are unlikely to give up those lands (particualrly Constantinople) without a fight which means the British have time to get more.

Not only that but giving Syria to the French is a way to get them to forswear further bits of Germany/reparations etc, in addition it which the British are going to want to take their piece of the pie if the Russians are getting theirs (particularly to keep them away from the gulf and southern Persia).

There is also the fact that the Levant was seen as the last area for colonial expansion (amusingly Rhodes left instructions in his will to take the area, along with reunifying with the USA ).

It would be a disaster to leave a weak Ottoman Empire defending the gulf against the Russians.

It is for this reason the British set out to take Baghdad in April 1914 (before the end of this war) and they will want that at least which leaves only a slight area between Russia and Britain which is likely non viable.

 

[luakel]

The Ottoman Empire will only be divided if they enter the war, which they didn't in OTL until December IIRC. With a Russian victory at Tannenburg and the Allies stopping the Germans after the Miracle of the Marne it's not going to look like anything the Ottomans can take advantage of. Even with Goeben and Breslau still making it to Constantinople they probably have a good chance of sitting this one out.

Question: What will Russia end up getting? Galicia is likely, but would they really want East Prussia with all the ethnic Germans there? Perhaps they take the area around Posen or something instead.

 

[Darkling]

Question: What will Russia end up getting? Galicia is likely, but would they really want East Prussia with all the ethnic Germans there? Perhaps they take the area around Posen or something instead.

They wouldn't really want Prussians but, strategically speaking, taking it gives them a much better position.

Maybe they could do a population swap of Prussians for Poles (since east Prussia already has alot of Poles in the area under discussion whilst Poles would be left within Germany in Silesia).

 

[King Gorilla]

I would imagine that Germany would be forced to pay reparations, return alsce lorraine and cede most of its polish territories to Russia. AustroHungary would likewise have to cede some of its Balkan territory and probably abandon its polish territory as well, however this loss would probably mark the beginning of the end of its empire. The Ottomans would luck out by not entering the war and would have a bit more time for keeping their empire alive.

 

[luakel]

They wouldn't really want Prussians but, strategically speaking, taking it gives them a much better position.

Maybe they could do a population swap of Prussians for Poles (since east Prussia already has alot of Poles in the area under discussion whilst Poles would be left within Germany in Silesia).

Having Posen and the areas around it gives them a nice bulge into Germany from where they can cut off any troops in Prussia quickly and then drive on Berlin in any future war.

 

[Gladi]

however this loss would probably mark the beginning of the end of its empire.

Bright day
No reason to, really. People's faith in the system won't be gone. Yes, some sorts of people will get all kinds of loud about what should have been done and when, but desintegration should not be on the books.

 

[King Gorilla]

Defeat would shake the publics faith in the monarchy while its control of its Slavic subjects would be greatly weakened. Nationalism would continue to plaque the many different regions of the empire, with the nationalists being greatly emboldened by the monarchy's defeat. Furthermore, Russia having made great gains in the war would be very much tempted to keep on encouraging Slavic revolutionaries in order to further expand its newly acquired influence in the Balkans. Because of this I don't see the empire surviving, however I imagine what emerges in its place being larger than the present Austria and most likely including chunks of Czechoslovakia and most of Slovenia

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Probably - the Ottoman-German Treaty was signed on August 2nd, and the effects of a reverse Tannenberg probably won't sink in for a couple of months, as the Russians can't advance that much further anyway.

No possible way would the Ottomans jump in under these circumstances. Almost everyone was against entry as it was; with a serious German reverse, against the Russians especially, there is no way in high heaven the Ottomans would even think about it. If anything, they'll be swung in on the side of the Entente.

For some reason British historians make a huge deal out of the treaty with Germany of Aug 2 - presumably because it removes responsibility from Churchill's decision to appropriate the Dreadnoughts, which is what really turned the tide of opinion against the Entente. The Treaty was made by the Defense Minister on his own initiative without the knowledge of the rest of the Cabinet - it would have been easy to repudiate, and you'll note that in OTL it took sending Goeben into the Black Sea to bombard Russian ports (ordered by that same Defense Minister, again without the knowledge of the rest of the Cabinet) to force the empire into the war.

For some reason everyone seems to think that everyone in the Ottoman Empire/Turkey were ardently pro-German - hence all the Turkey joins the Axis fantasies. The opposite was the case. Most imperial statesmen were pro-Entente.

 

[Xen]

For some reason everyone seems to think that everyone in the Ottoman Empire/Turkey were ardently pro-German - hence all the Turkey joins the Axis fantasies. The opposite was the case. Most imperial statesmen were pro-Entente.

That makes sense, alot of them probably felt a debt of gratitude toward the UK and France for their help in the Crimean War. How many times did British intervention or threat of British intervention prevent Istanbul from becoming a Russian city? Had Russia stuck it out in the war and not collapsed into Revolution and chaos, it could have very well have happened that they demand Istanbul at the Treaty of Versailles, they could even go so far as supporting the Greeks in their war against the Turks, and making a Wilsonian Armenia and an independent Kurdistan a reality.

 

[Max Sinister]

Maybe it goes like this: Ludendorff is shot in Lüttich/Liege, never becomes famous. General Prittwitz can't stop the Russians, retreats behind Vistula. Germany lacks the grain and milk from East Prussia, suffers from scarcity. The leadership pushes too much for a fast victory in the west, the armies are overstretched, the French make a successful counterattack, break up the German front, the German armies are scattered over France and Belgium without connections, and are defeated one after another. How's that?

 

[Faeelin]

What would happen in German politics, BTW?

 

[Glen]

Earlier Entente victory likely means Ottomans either staying neutral or even jumping in at the endgame on the Entente side.

Biggest winner in an early Entente victory? Tsar Nicholas II without a doubt. A seeming Russian victory in this war will bolster the Tsarist regime. While inevitably there will be problems in future, it makes for a very different history for Russia.

The Central Powers, ironically, also do better for not having to bleed so long and hard before being beaten, though they will never know this. Expect that Wilhelm II abdicates in favor of his son, and that Emperor Karl at least comes in without the onus of the War. A-H might still fracture, or it might federate as the minorities push for more representative government in the wake of the failed previous regime.

US never gets in the fight, and no 14 points get written. No League of Nations, likely. US is poorer relative to Europe ITTL, but on the otherhand less likely to have a Dust Bowl due to overfarming.

Poland is a big loser of course, as it continues to not have a national identity.

Now then, what happens in the future will be interesting. Neither side is likely to have been so mauled as to be unwilling to go for another round at some future date. But what lessons will the generals take away from this much shorter war? Tank development is likely retarded compared to OTL.

 

[B_Munro]

US never gets in the fight, and no 14 points get written. No League of Nations, likely. US is poorer relative to Europe ITTL,

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say "Europe is richer relative to the US?"

Poland is a big loser of course, as it continues to not have a national identity.

Pretty much all Poles are now under one government (the Russian one) and the probable reaction of the Austrians and Germans to Polish resistance to Russian rule, now they have very few Polish subjects of their own, will be "go Poles!" I'd expect a very energetic pro-autonomy movement.

Now then, what happens in the future will be interesting. Neither side is likely to have been so mauled as to be unwilling to go for another round at some future date.

OTOH, the odds for a second go-round look rather bad for the Central Powers: they lost relatively quickly and suffered substantial losses, and their enemies look relatively stronger (of course, the path to democracy and good government in Russia may be, shall we say, bumpy.) Do the French and Russians manage to impose some limitations on the German armed forces?

Quick thoughts re German politics: shorter war, fewer radicalized, habitualized-to-violence soldiers, unlikely to get the "private armies" of OTL. The German Imperial government and beurocracy doesn't collapse as badly OTL - and doesn't get to dump the governing of Germany, and the responsibility for the peace treaty, in the hands of the Socialists. (Probably still going to get some sort of stab-in-the-back mythos, but without years of claims of victory, sans the actual victory in the east of OTL, it will be a harder sell). The traditional right will be a bit stronger, but the radical crazy right will be weaker.

Bruce

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say "Europe is richer relative to the US?"

Good point. Here, the US hasn't spent years as an arms merchant while Europe wasted men and material in a war. The US economy will still grow and surpass much of Europe, but it will be a slower process. The US, for example, is still going to outproduce Britain by the end of the decade.

OTOH, the odds for a second go-round look rather bad for the Central Powers: they lost relatively quickly and suffered substantial losses, and their enemies look relatively stronger (of course, the path to democracy and good government in Russia may be, shall we say, bumpy.) Do the French and Russians manage to impose some limitations on the German armed forces?

Or, OTOH once again, Germany can look and see exactly where it went wrong. Plan out the economy and war materials, keep a secure supply of what you need, make a better combat plan... In the next round, Germany won't make the same mistake, while the Allies could very well suffer victory disease (likely, as allied arrogance over a quick victory will blind leaders to reality). And in round 2, Germany could also avoid the long-run mistakes from our WW1, letting it beat the Allies.

And as for arms limitations on Germany, or even a serious reparations, why? The War was short and quick; this wasn't some grand conflict where the loser would pay dearly. If anything, there would be gentler terms in regards to colonial transfers. The idea that the victors are going to force the Central Powers into the mud over a short and painless war is absurd, to say the least.