Short war in 1914

What would have to change in order for the war to finish earlier. Feel free to pick winner (or maybe it would result in a draw).
 
My proposal requires a German leadership (both civilian and military) who take a longer view of things. Here goes:

Germany, realizing the political fallout of attacking France via Belgium, throws out the Schlieffen Plan and sits on the defense in Alsace Lorraine. Instead, Germany focuses on attacking Russia. Austria-Hungary's attack into Serbia most likely still gets repulsed, but Germany is able to send some troops to help; Serbia gets overrun by the Spring of 1915.

Meanwhile, France loses hundreds of thousands of troops attacking German fortifications in Alsace Lorraine. The Germans gradually give ground in an organized withdraw, and France advances but at a horrific cost. Britain, with it's casus belli now gone, sits on the sidelines for the moment (although they will be pro Entente). Italy remains neutral for the moment as does the Ottoman Empire.

Russia is fairing even worse in than in OTL due to the greater emphasis Germany is putting on the Eastern Front. By mid-1915, Germany has captured all of Poland and is beginning to advance into Ukraine and the Baltics. The Ottoman Empire jumps in at this point, sensing the kill, and pushes into the Caucuses. By the Fall of 1915, Nicholas II requests a ceasefire due to his armies retreating and the potential for rebellion. The peace treaty sees Germany keeping the Congress Poland and creating a puppet Baltic kingdom. The Ottoman Empire picks up some of the territory that it lost in the 1877 Russo-Turkish War.

The Germans use the winter of 1915 and 1916 to shift their troops to the Western Front. On the diplomatic front, the German Government declares that they will launch an attack to "liberate their territory" in Alsace Lorraine. Italy may or may not be cajoled into declaring for the Central Powers. In the Spring of 1916, the Germans launch a counter-attack that pushes the French out of Alsace Lorraine, again at a great cost. With that done, the Germans request that the British (who are probably very close to entering the war) mediate a peace. The fighting stops in the summer of 1916, and France will be forced to submit to a peace deal (though it will be kept relatively moderate by the British) as they are now alone in the fight. The war is over by the Fall of 1916 at the latest.

A lot of what I described was pretty close to the events of "Grey Tide in the East". Again, this requires a German leadership that takes a long view of the situation and recognizes the diplomatic consequences of its actions.
 
Here's one idea:
Germans go east first, while remaining on defence in the western front.
Russians realise than they are main target, and rather than rush to attack exposed German back without preparation (to bail out France, since they were worried Paris would fall iOTL), they focus on defence, use delaying tactics to finish their mobilisation.
After month of deliberation and seeking opportunity to strike, UK declares war on Germany, citing threat of German domination on continent to their interests as their cassus belli. French had just finished mobilisation, and violate Belgian neutrality to attacking Germany by passing through south Wallonia. Belgians are given guarantees of their sovereignty and territorial integrity by both UK and France, so they don't declare war on Entente. Just like Greeks did not declare war OTL when their territory was violated by Entente.
Germans Western flank is weakly defended due to most of their army being in the east, fighting Russians. French capture most German iron mines: most of them are on Franco-German border, West of German fortifications. Because Germans did not seize Belgian industry and supply of nitrates, they run out of ammunition shortly after capturing Kiev. Blockaded by Royal Navy, they have no means to replenish their supplies: imports from Sweden are not enough for their needs. War ends in late 1915 when industrial Ruhr is lost to advancing French and BEF, depriving Germany of hope for victory in prolonged conflict.
Germany reluctantly asks Entente for armistice
 
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Okay, once again the Germans defend in the West, sending more troops to the Eastern Front.

The French attack, as they always intended, and as is required to help their Entente partner, Russia. Restricted to a fairly narrow front, against Germans who are probably entrenched this time (unlike OTL), they meet with disaster (as they did historically in A-L and Ardennes).

With no invasion of Belgium, Britain fails to reach consensus about entering the war. After the first few days, once the unprecedentedly horrific losses sustained by the French become publicized, reluctance is greatly increased.

The Russians attempt to attack, to honor their own Entente obligations. With many more German troops facing them, it is a fair debacle. The Germans pursue, but the front stabilizes somewhere in Poland.

A-H, of course, gets smashed; but German pressure draws off some Russian troops and supplies, letting her hold on.

The next several months see further French offensives; all are bloody, none are successful since the frontline is now fully entrenched. Given that there has been no progress, extremely heavy casualties, and the Germans haven't even invaded France or Belgium, the French public starts asking "Why are we doing this?" Socialist agitation to end the war gets in gear. French leaders "temporarily" suspend offensive operations.

On the Eastern Front, the lines seesaw back and forth, with heavy casualties on both sides, but far heavier to the Russians. The Russian leaders notice that France is not attacking, and feel betrayed and very alone.

With German support much more forthcoming, A-H crushes Serbia on its second attempt.

After several months or so, Britain offers to mediate. She doesn't want the war to go on indefinitely, and especially doesn't want Germany to grow stronger by beating Russia, who is looking pretty overrated and fragile right now.

At the negotiations, French leaders feel pressured by public discontent to get the war over with. They have occupied little ground, and accept a status quo peace.
Russia realizes she's been left in the lurch by the French, and gets away by relinquishing Poland, which is set up as an independent nation. Germany might be able to insist on some small slivers of territory along her eastern border, but that's about all.

Endgame: Germany has achieved her goal of demolishing the Franco-Russian Entente (Russia will never trust France again); she would've liked to gain more, but there it is. A-H has punished Serbia, which probably gets a regime change; A-H may be past caring, though, because even a short war may have hastened her breakup. Russia is tottering, as her people are sick of fighting losing wars for the Tsar. France is cowed, and far less willing to try again in the future; besides, Germany showed considerable restraint, which may slightly alleviate her paranoia. Britain is unhappy at not having been able to grab more colonial possessions (unless Germany gives them up at the treaty table for some reason), but relieved at not having taken part in that awful slaughterhouse.


Edit: Of course, the above is a best-case scenario.
It is pretty likely that Britain will declare against Germany anyway, in order to stay in the good graces of the expected winners -- France and Russia. I think it very likely that Britain cared not a whit about Belgium's neutrality per se.

In fact, the other big potential upset of my scenario is Britain hypocritically giving the green light for France to invade Belgium. If France makes no progress in A-L, and if Belgium won't heed a French ultimatum (which would sound much like the OTL German one, but would be in French, and would probably arouse no outrage among 21st century AH.com members), then I would not be terribly surprised if Britain supported it.
 
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Ryan

Donor
the French stick to Plan XVI resulting in the German armies breaking against solid defences. due to Paris not being threatened, Russia doesn't rush it's invasion of Germany which succeeds in capturing a significant chunk of east Prussia before Germany can redeploy forces to the theatre.
 
Germany not getting the massive supply of nitrates stored at ?Antwerp? would hurt their war effort, as the Haber process factories were just ramping up.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Perhaps the British army continuing post-Boer expansion instead of shrinking back a bit - bit costly, but it might help make the German wheel come completely unstuck.
 
Germany not getting the massive supply of nitrates stored at ?Antwerp? would hurt their war effort, as the Haber process factories were just ramping up.
Or just delay the Haber process discovery a couple years (or get more stumbling in efforts to get funds or whatnot).
 

trajen777

Banned
Depends when you want to start - since u said that Kasier more long term thinking

Lets do 1895

1. Germany minimizes fleet build up
2. Germany matches French recruitment so they take 80% vs 50% of each class of 18 year olds. This gives them 30 % more troops trained up --- so if you use the 1914 number of 8 armies you now have 11.
3. Germany accepts initial overtures of alliance from Britain (1899 - Source Dreadnought)
4. In 1914 France attacks head on . Germany h Artillery devastates French. Germany counter attacks and defeats French and surrounds French Army (ala 1870)
5. Italy attacks with Britain on German side or Neutral.
6. French out of war
7. Germany, Britain, Japan, AH , Italy, OE carve up Russia
 
2. Germany matches French recruitment so they take 80% vs 50% of each class of 18 year olds. This gives them 30 % more troops trained up --- so if you use the 1914 number of 8 armies you now have 11.

One of the main reasons that Germany achieved better results in many ways in 1914 is because she restricted her recruit intake. The money saved permitted more and better training, not to mention development and fielding of the light howitzers, a lavish provision of field guns, etc.

I'm not sure how much you'd have to scale back naval spending to let Germany take 80% of her potential recruits, and still equip and train them properly. But then, if it bought more British goodwill, then trimming the Navy down pretty sharply would undoubtedly be worth it...
 

NoMommsen

Donor
One of the main reasons that Germany achieved better results in many ways in 1914 is because she restricted her recruit intake. The money saved permitted more and better training, not to mention development and fielding of the light howitzers, a lavish provision of field guns, etc.
Wasn't that just a "side effect" of funneling all (or most) of thze money to the navy build up (and therefor not "deliberatly" wanted) ?
 
Wasn't that just a "side effect" of funneling all (or most) of thze money to the navy build up (and therefor not "deliberatly" wanted) ?

Partly, yes. There was clearly a limit on how much funding the Reichstag was willing to provide; it could be spent on either the army, or the navy.

I think it was at least partly a side effect of Junker interest not wanting to increase the proportion of bourgeois among the officer corps (although that happened anyway).

And I figure it was partly the Reichstag being reluctant to increase an army which the (Prussian) king controlled and the (Prussian) Junkers influenced. The "other" Germans were mostly happy to be part of a unified Germany, but there was a LOT of unhappiness at the level of influence that the Prussian nobility wielded (see Note). After the war, that was going to change.

Note: in urbanized Prussia, among the non-nobles, fairly liberal views were in the majority. The problem was the three-franchise Prussian election system, which allowed the highly-conservative Prussian nobility to wield far greater influence than their overall numbers would otherwise permit. And since the German imperial government was based upon the Prussian governmental machinery, this meant that Prussian nobles exercised disproportionate influence over the entire Empire.
In 1917, Bethmann-Hollweg was preparing to reform this very franchise; this prompted H-L to demand his dismissal. The Kaiser refused, but Bethmann resigned anyway, to prevent further conflict (potentially at the expense of the war effort). Doing away with the three-franchise system was one of the first things done after the Peace.
 
I wonder how Russia would transform politically with such a shortened 'Great' War. You can throw the Bolsheviks out the window, but I doubt absolute monarchy will sit with a Tsar that lost two wars in recent memory and in short-order. Some nationalist movement?
 
On september 1st, 1914, (after nothing else happening different than historically) Lord Kitchener suffers a flat tire resulting in a crash into a tree.

As a result, he's not around to inform John French to not retreat all the way to (or across) the Channel. While it doesn't cause the BEF to retreat all that way, the plan is kept semi-active, resulting in a leak to the press.

While it isn't published, an Italian diplomat finds out and contacts Rome. At the same time (give or take) news of the size of Germany's victory at Tannenberg breaks. Italian papers on september 3rd publish the 'news' that Britain is evacuating the continent while the Russians are on the run.

The Italians, ever uncertain of gains if they stay out, offer to enter the war in exchange for gains against France (just a matter of ripping through an empty underbelly). Germany and Austria do not object, and Austria offers a few miles of border correction in the Trentino if Italy declares war on September 5th-6th.

Italy does declare war on the 6th, though the actual offensive into southern France doesn't really start until 2 weeks later.

As a result of the declaration of war, Joffre has to commit reserves south, turning the Marne into a bloody stalemate. Exact events need some work here, but I assume the 6th army is simply reinforced less, so the German 2nd army can beat them back while holding against the French 5th army. As a result Moltke/OHL instead keep up the attack against Verdun and the French armies there, making the battle of the Marne look like a pause in German advances on a small stretch of front (to both sides) rather than a Paris-saving move.

The result is a beginning of panic in French government. Again, exact events need work, but it results in the French position in Verdun collapsing to shorten the front and allow more reinforcements for Paris and the rapidly developing Italian front (unknown to the French, the Italian offensive is about to be bloodily aborted). On September 10th, Verdun is cut off from French forces entirely, and on the 11th it surrenders.

Seeing the writing on the wall, and after much cajoling by the Germans, the Turks begin mobilizing on September 15th after news of a renewed offensive by the German armies in France (actually localized efforts by the German 1st-3rd army to straighten out the Verdun-Ourcq-Aisne frontline, giving a frontline of roughly Metz-Bar-le-Duc-Marne-Ourcq)

On September 17th, the rested French launch an all-out assault on the Marne-line. German 1st army nearly cracks under the strain and has to regroup north of the Ourcq, threatening the whole German position - except the 7th army has arrived just in time to drive west, south of the 1st army, allowing the 2nd and 3rd to hold on the Marne. The French offensive is aborted as the 6th army is nearly cut off from the BEF to its southeast by this new German assault.

A new wave of panic sets in and Joffre orders yet more troops west from the Alsatian front. This fatally weakens the Toul-Bar-le-Duc area of the French front, allowing the German IVth and Vth army to strike out and seize Neufchateau on September 25th, cutting Toul into a salient and threatening to cut off the French 2nd army entirely. Fearing a 'new Sedan' the French armies on the Alsatian front begin a rapid retreat southeast to Belfort, widening the gap for the German IVth-Vth-VIth army to run roughly from Belfort to Saint-Bizier.

The French high command sees no reserves to plug this hole, so the French 3rd and 4th army begin an unwanted retreat southwest (3rd already having lost strength for further Parisian reinforcements) rather than acting to pin the German 3rd army in place. This does much to mitigate the good mood as the Italian offensive is firmly thrown back by September 25th.

On September 22nd, the German 1st army (having recovered between the Ourcq and Aisne) strikes firmly west, crossing the Oise at Compiegne. German 7th races to catch up to protect 1st army's flank as it manages to maintain a steady westward pace until being halted at the battle of Beauvais by September 29th.

On September 30th, the Ottomans declare war on Russia and Serbia.

On October 1st, the German 7th army, reinforced by troops from Antwerp, launches an attack between the Oise and Ourcq (with one corps west of the Oise). The French position to the west now appears close to unravelling as the French 6th army, which stopped the Germans at Beauvais, is now forced to retreat/attack southeast to hold the German 7th, while the French 2nd had only just moved past them for an attack northeast past Amiens.

Seeing a gap forming in French lines both east and west of Paris, the French government (or part of it anyway) secretly offers Germany a free hand against Russia and Serbia in exchange for a status-quo-ante peace. When news leaks the government falls, but the damage is already done as British and Russian negotiators hastily propose a general peace conference given the situation on the ground. Germany accepts in exchange for a lifting of the blockade and the demilitarization and occupation (by Germany) of Antwerp, Belfort, Toul, and Epinal (all still holding, though Toul is effectively encircled and Antwerp is), as well as stopping the influx of British troops into France, and an Italian occupation of Chamonix, Annecy, Nice and environs (mostly, just like the German occupations, to allow an easier progress if the war resumes).

Also some Russian fortifications are taken, but no idea which, and A-H is evacuated by the Russian armies; also, Austrian prisoners are returned to them (Austria was rightly adamant; those prisoners are the best army they have).

The final settlement sees the first institution of a demilitarized zone, on the Lorraine-Lotharingen border (under surveillance by the Germans, so take demilitarized with a grain of salt - and its all on the French side of the border). Some few miles of Belgium and all of Luxemburg join the German Empire. Serbia is reduced to a vassal, and Congress Poland is released under a German monarch. The Ottomans reclaim a few chunks as well, and Italy receives Nice. Germany also gets some French colonies, as after all France lost the war - connecting German East Africa through the French, and giving the Congo to Germany, creating one German blob (little connected as it is).

Everyone prepares for round 2, although noone's quite sure if they should; the Tsar did well enough, so feels the French let him down, while the French feel they had to do all the hard work (and couldn't beat Germany alone). Also Austria-Hungary comes out looking very shaky, especially as Serbia defies the treaty for the next 6 months (openly) or 3 years (before peace really is established under the new Austrian puppet). Italy's bitter over not getting Tunisia and Savoie. And Britain is thinking intervening in Europe was a damned fool thing, but at least Germany didn't run away with all of Europe.
 
Or just delay the Haber process discovery a couple years (or get more stumbling in efforts to get funds or whatnot).
There were some explosions at factories using the process Haber-Bosch process in the 1920s, perhaps when Bosch is working to scale up the process for BASF there's some sort of accident and he's blown up? The first factory they built in Oppau blew up killing 500 people, injuring 2,000 more, and causing large amounts of property damage in 1921. If Bosch is killed in the development process then BASF could become less enthusiastic about the research, or at least carry it out in a slower and more cautious manner delaying its introduction. That in itself would cause problems, if combined with someone noticing the nitrate supplies in Antwerp and removing/destroying them before they were captured by the Germans that could really throw a spanner in the works.
 
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