POD: Louis d'Anjou, King of Hungary, dies in the second year of his reign, in spring 1344 (classic horse riding accident). What happens then?
Two brothers of Louis are still alive, but Andrew is in Naples while Stephen is underaged. Andrew surely would claim the throne as oldest living son of Charles Robert, and Queen Mother would side with him. Andrew could improve his position in his marriage with Joanna, having his own Kingdom, more powerful than Naples. Also, Joanna would not be interested in his death now (if she really was involved in conspiracy that lead to his murder)-now thanks to marriage with Andrew she'd be not only Queen of Naples but Queen of Hungary too. Andrew would be outside reach of his OTL murderers, as he'd move to his native Hungary. Still, keeping power in both Naples and Hungary would not be easy-once Andrew and Joanna leave for Buda, remaining Angevins from Durazzo and Taranto lines would start making troubles. Usurpation of the throne by one of them (which one? Charles of Durazzo, married to Joanna's sister, has better claim) is question of time. So Hungary-Naples relations likely would not be any better than IOTL. Big winner is Andrew, who would avoid assassination, Joanna may lose Naples, but still would be better than IOTL as Queen of Hungary.

@krieger
 

krieger

Banned
POD: Louis d'Anjou, King of Hungary, dies in the second year of his reign, in spring 1344 (classic horse riding accident). What happens then?
Two brothers of Louis are still alive, but Andrew is in Naples while Stephen is underaged. Andrew surely would claim the throne as oldest living son of Charles Robert, and Queen Mother would side with him. Andrew could improve his position in his marriage with Joanna, having his own Kingdom, more powerful than Naples. Also, Joanna would not be interested in his death now (if she really was involved in conspiracy that lead to his murder)-now thanks to marriage with Andrew she'd be not only Queen of Naples but Queen of Hungary too. Andrew would be outside reach of his OTL murderers, as he'd move to his native Hungary. Still, keeping power in both Naples and Hungary would not be easy-once Andrew and Joanna leave for Buda, remaining Angevins from Durazzo and Taranto lines would start making troubles. Usurpation of the throne by one of them (which one? Charles of Durazzo, married to Joanna's sister, has better claim) is question of time. So Hungary-Naples relations likely would not be any better than IOTL. Big winner is Andrew, who would avoid assassination, Joanna may lose Naples, but still would be better than IOTL as Queen of Hungary.

@krieger

I doubt if Andrew would avoid assasination. Joanna wasn't involved in a murder because it was in her political interest - she had an affair with her future second husband, Louis of Taranto and she was deeply in love with him, so her feelings about Andrew and Louis wouldn't change. Louis of Taranto wanted to murder Andrew, because he desired the throne of Naples for himself. Sure, Queen Mother would proclaim Andrew king and he would be recognized as Andrew IV, but his rule wouldn't last too long. If anything, death of Andrew will be hastened because Louis wouldn't want to give him additional resources from Hungary. So I'd stick to Andrew still being murdered and young Stephen (Stephen VI) being recognized as next King. Regency would attack Naples, but I don't expect this campaign to be more succesful than OTL. Would Stephen (as a King) still pursue match with Margaret Wittelsbach? And is he destined to fall from horse and die like IOTL?
 
I doubt if Andrew would avoid assasination. Joanna wasn't involved in a murder because it was in her political interest - she had an affair with her future second husband, Louis of Taranto and she was deeply in love with him, so her feelings about Andrew and Louis wouldn't change. Louis of Taranto wanted to murder Andrew, because he desired the throne of Naples for himself. Sure, Queen Mother would proclaim Andrew king and he would be recognized as Andrew IV, but his rule wouldn't last too long. If anything, death of Andrew will be hastened because Louis wouldn't want to give him additional resources from Hungary. So I'd stick to Andrew still being murdered and young Stephen (Stephen VI) being recognized as next King. Regency would attack Naples, but I don't expect this campaign to be more succesful than OTL. Would Stephen (as a King) still pursue match with Margaret Wittelsbach? And is he destined to fall from horse and die like IOTL?
Andrew would leave Naples as fast as possible after hearing news about brother's death. In Naples his position is weak, he is denied title of king, he is short of money and he is ridiculed foreigner. How would Taranto reach him in Buda? All he (or Durazzo) could do is to rebel against absent king and claim throne for himself.
 

krieger

Banned
Andrew would leave Naples as fast as possible after hearing news about brother's death. In Naples his position is weak, he is denied title of king, he is short of money and he is ridiculed foreigner. How would Taranto reach him in Buda? All he (or Durazzo) could do is to rebel against absent king and claim throne for himself.

Taranto would try to prevent him from leaving Naples. He could assault Andrew when he'll be heading to the harbour to go to Hungary. Andrew could always just escape but Joanna won't go with him. She would seek to get an annulment and marry Louis.
 
How does this impact Hungary's response to the Ottomans later in the century?

I'd expect it would depend on what sort of policy Andras IV/Istvan VI would follow. Is he - to use a later analogy - a Matyas Corvinus type or Vladislaus Bene type king of Hungary.

Couple things in no particular order:
  • Andras' survival or Lajos' death (either works) means that the Hungarians don't invade Naples.
  • Likely as not, neither Andras nor Giovanna contest the annulment, provided that their son (Carlo Martello) is sent to Hungary to his dad's custody. He may or may not die as OTL. Unsure what killed him. Although his survival leads to problems down the road - for both Hungary and Naples.
  • Giovanna marries her second husband and avoids the stigma of being a murderous adultress found not guilty of complicity in her husband's murder (sounds a lot like Mary, QoS if you ask me).
  • Lack of a Neapolitan adventure (since I doubt even if Taranto still tries to murder Andras, that the Hungarian king will be overly concerned with his former wife's kingdom) means that Hungarian finances are in better shape.
  • Provided there is nothing else to rock the boat in Naples (I figure it's unlikely, female monarchs weren't exactly the norm), Giovanna may have a comparably better reign than OTL.
  • The duke of Durazzo (Giovanna's brother-in-law) seems likely to keep his head here. No Hungarian invasion means that Giovanna-Taranto don't flee, which means that Durazzo has no vaccuum to expand into and seize power (although he still might).
 
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